Daily Brief Australia: Psc Insurance, Iron Ore, Barton Gold Holdings , Pureprofile Ltd and more

• On 22 August, the Psc Insurance (PSI AU) IE considered Ardonagh’s A$6.19 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$5.69 to A$6.65 valuation range. 
• The offer is conditional on shareholder approval of the scheme. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake. The scheme meeting is on 26 September.
• The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for the 11 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/12.1%.

• Iron ore futures rose 5.3% last week but declined 3% on September 2nd, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend.
• Technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands suggest a short-term downtrend, with price struggling to break above the 21-day moving average.
• Elevated historical volatility near a 4-month high indicates that market instability may persist, suggesting caution in trade setups.

• Back on the 8th May, PSC Insurance (PSI AU), a diversified insurance service provider, entered into a Scheme with Ardonagh Group, at A$6.19/share, in cash.
• That’s a 27.6% premium to undisturbed, and a lifetime high. Directors and key executives holding ~39.6% of shares out, are supportive. 
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 26th September. Expected implementation on the 11 October. The IE says fair & reasonable.

• Despite sharp price moves, iron ore options activity was muted with a sharp decline in put volumes.
• The DCE/SGX spread widened from 4.6% to 7.5% as DCE futures traded at a premium.
• SGX Iron Ore options volume fell by 31.8% WoW, with increased call activity focused on September expiries at the 105 strike.

• Iron ore futures surged 5.3% last week but fell 3% on September 2nd, reflecting uncertain price sentiment.
• Chinese portside inventories rose by 3.4 million tons, reaching a two-year high, driven by high arrivals and reduced pick-up volumes.
• Heading into peak consumption season in China, supply headwinds may drive sentiment rather than demand tailwinds.

The publication of the results of its initial scoping study on the Tunkillia project on 16 July puts Barton well on the road to executing its three-phase development strategy to achieve c 150,000oz gold production. The study posited a 5Mtpa bulk open-pit mine operating over 6.4 years to process 30.7Mt of material at an average grade of 0.93g/t Au to generate a pre-tax NPV7.5 of A$512m and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 40% at a gold price of A$3,500/oz, an average all-in sustaining cost of A$1,917/oz and an initial capital cost of A$374m. Barton is now advancing an optimisation review targeting further cost savings and mine life growth.

• RaaS Research Group has published an update report on data analytics company Pureprofile (ASX:PPL) following the release of its audited FY24 accounts which includes confirmation that it delivered a maiden reported NPAT of $0.1m, and an adjusted NPAT of $1.26m, up 25% on the pcp and ahead of our forecast for $1.17m.
• Adjusted EBITDA for FY24 was $4.4m, down 4% on the pcp, but up 8% excluding the impact of cash short-term-incentive (STI) payments to executives.
• We note EBITDA was slightly ahead of our forecast for $4.3m and within the company’s guidance range of $4.1m to $4.5m.