Daily Brief Australia: Pact Group Holdings, Spectur Ltd, Respiri Ltd and more

• Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU) has disclosed an unconditional takeover proposal from Raphael Geminder at A$0.68 per share, a 0.7% premium to the undisturbed price (12 September).
• Mr. Geminder’s justification for a little-to-no premium offer is based on the premise that minorities are clambering for a liquidity event to exit a no-hope situation. 
• The offer price is unattractive on any reasonable metric. A successful privatisation would require a bump. The shares closed 6.6% higher than the offer. 

Respiri had a very active FY23, including the recent close of the Access Managed Services (Access) acquisition and the signing of several commercial contracts. These represent stepping stones to the company’s commercialisation phase, further supported by a strong client pipeline of ongoing contractual discussions, including with two US-based insurers and three accountable care organisations. As a result, management expects to break even by H2 CY24 (revised from end-CY24). Pro forma cash at 30 June 2023 was A$2.2m, bolstered by the A$3.9m fund raise in August 2023, which we estimate should support operations into Q424. We have adjusted our estimates to reflect FY23 results and Respiri’s recent activities, tempered for timing considerations (client onboarding and patient enrolment). Our valuation adjusts to A$164.6m or A$0.17/share (from A$164.2m or A$0.20/share, previously).