Daily Brief Australia: OZ Minerals Ltd, Origin Energy, Perpetual Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

OZ Minerals (OZL) – Copper and Comps Have Caught Up
Origin Energy’s (ORG AU) Indicative Offer of A$9.00 from Brookfield/EIG
Perpetual (PPT AU) Rejects a Revised A$33 Offer; Pendal (PDL AU) Deal Looks Toast

OZ Minerals (OZL) – Copper and Comps Have Caught Up

In August, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) launched a $25/share bid – a price it saw as attractive and what target OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) saw as opportunistic.
Copper had fallen, and peer stock prices had fallen too. Since then, copper has rebounded and peers have too so what was a 25-30% premium no longer exists.
This means the price of OZL should “enjoy” different dynamics going forward.

Origin Energy (ORG AU) received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield and EIG at A$9.00 per share, a 54.9% premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).
The Board will grant eight weeks of due diligence access and intends to unanimously recommend a binding offer at A$9.00 per share. The offer is attractive.
Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 14.9%.

Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has rejected a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Regal/BPEA EQT at A$33.00 per share, a 10% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$30.00 per share.
While the Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT revised offer is not quite a knockout bid, it is good enough to warrant the requested short due diligence period.
The PPT/Pendal Group (PDL AU) deal is seemingly dead. The A$23 million break fee is more than compensated by the A$172 million value uplift between Regal/BPEA EQT’s two proposals.

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