Daily Brief Australia: Origin Energy, Ventia, Empire Energy, SenSen Networks, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals and more

• On the 31st October, AustralianSuper (with 13.67% of shares out and Origin Energy (ORG AU)‘s largest shareholder) argued the Brookfield/EIG-backed Consortium Offer remained substantially below its estimate of fair value.
• Brookfield/EIG have now increased their Offer by 8% to $9.53/share from $8.81/share, which now comprises cash components of A$6.59/share and US$1.86/share. A consideration-reducing fully-franked dividend of A$0.39/share is expected.
• The Offer is declared “best and final.” It is above the top-end of the IE’s valuation range. AustralianSuper should accept the revised terms. But they say no.

• Origin Energy (ORG AU)  has disclosed a best and final offer from Brookfield/EIG at A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, which implies A$9.53 per share, 8.1% higher than the previous offer.
• AusSuper will vote against the final offer. Taking advantage of the share price dip, AusSuper is said to have further increased its shareholding to 14.98% of outstanding shares.
• The scheme will likely fail as a minority YES vote turnout of 88% is required to pass. Brookfield/EIG could return with an off-market takeover offer, but it also faces issues. 

• Ventia (VNT AU) (VSG)’s two largest shareholders, Apollo Global Management and CIMIC Group, aim to raise around US$174m via selling 11.7% of the company.
• The two investors have pared their stake thrice this year and this will be the final cleanup sale. All the past deals have done ok.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

• Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is an oil and gas producer/developer, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) and US oil/gas production assets.
• EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• The investment case is building with the development model becoming more defined after the completion of the Carpentaria-3H testing campaign. 

SenSen’s Q1 update signals positive momentum following record FY23 results. Q1 saw customer receipts exceed operating costs on a trailing 12-month basis, a key milestone towards its target to reach profitability this year. Encouraging FY24 lead indicators include a recent tender announcement, potentially one of SenSen’s most significant smart cities deals yet, and the settlement of the Angel dispute, which marks SenSen’s gaming exit. Proceeds from Angel’s investment in SenSen and the ongoing rights issue should support the company to more actively pursue the much larger smart cities opportunity, which is now the group’s sole focus.

Paradigm announced Q1 results (for the quarter ending 30 September) and a A$30m capital raise to potentially extend its cash runway through to mid CY25. Management attributed increased spending in the quarter to increased clinical and recruiting activity, which translated into a higher net cash outflow from operating activities of A$22.5m (vs A$17.1m in Q423). With the PARA_OA_008 programme now concluded, as well as the upcoming completion of the mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS) VI Phase II trial and anticipated lower costs for PARA_OA_002, management expects R&D spend to decline in Q224, from A$21.9 in Q124 (vs A$16.1m in Q423). At the quarter end, the company had a cash balance of A$33.6m.