Daily Brief Australia: Origin Energy, Orecorp Ltd, Amaero International Ltd, SenSen Networks and more

• Origin Energy (ORG AU)‘s Scheme vote today was always going to be a tenuous affair with AusSuper’s ~17.5% blocking stake, and Perpetual also firmly in the “against” camp. 
• The Scheme meeting has now been adjourned. Origin said that based on the proxy votes, it was unlikely the Scheme would have achieved the required 75% approval by shareholders.
• In addition, the Brookfield-led consortium has pitched a alternative non-binding and indicative proposal which Origin views as inferior to the existing Scheme, and has significant reservations as to its complexity.

• Origin Energy (ORG AU) has postponed its scheme meeting to 4 December after it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield/EIG to amend the current scheme.
• The Board admitted the current scheme was likely to be voted down if the meeting was held today. The alternative transaction structure will struggle to gain shareholder support.
• If Brookfield/EIG walks, the share price will fall, at least in the short term. We think a reasonable deal break price is A$7.40, an 11% downside to the last close.

• Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) has disclosed a revised offer from Silvercorp Metals (SVM US) at A$0.19 cash per share and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share.
• The revised offer was necessitated due to the decline in SVM shares. Since 7 August, the revised offer is, on average, 7.8% higher than the previous offer.
• Directors and irrevocables represent around 20% of voting rights. The revised offer should help the scheme get up. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.6%.

• Amaero International Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace, and other industrial sectors.
• The company is developing a 1,000+-tonne-a-year critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA with its initial focus on producing refractory alloy powder, C103, a critical metal powder used in hypersonics weaponry.
• The company has raised A$10m from new and existing institutional and sophisticated shareholders at $0.16/share, representing a 15.8% discount to the last traded price prior to the raise. 

SenSen has won a major contract with Australia’s National Heavy Vehicle Regulator (NHVR), generating A$1.5m in upfront revenue and c A$500,000 in annual recurring revenue. This is a major scale-up with an existing customer, providing important validation of both SenSen’s technology and its ‘land and expand’ strategy, while retaining significant upsell potential through expanding deployments across other NHVR jurisdictions. The deal provides good support for our FY24 forecasts and strengthens the company’s prospects for delivering sustained, scalable growth.