Daily Brief Australia: Guzman Y Gomez, APM Human Services, Westgold Resources, Regis Resources and more

• Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) listed on 20 June and is eligible for inclusion in the S&P/ASX family of indices at the September rebalance.
• Whether the stock is included in indices depends on the index providers estimate of free float. We expect index providers to assign floats of between 25-35% for the stock.
• Inclusion in one global index could come in November and another in December. Inclusion in the S&P/ASX indices will depend on whether float is higher than 30% or lower.

• The APM Human Services (APM AU) IE considers Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)’s A$1.45 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$1.40 to A$1.74 valuation range. 
• The offer is conditional on FIRB, US HSR and shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as MDP is the second-largest shareholder.
• While the offer remains underwhelming, rollover shareholders and quiet retail boards should ensure the vote passes. At last close and for the 10 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.4%/10.1%.

• Back on the 31st May, employment and disability services play APM Human Services (APM AU) and US PE-outfit Madison Dearborn Partners, entered a Scheme at A$1.45/share, in cash.
• That’s a 74.7% premium to undisturbed. A scrip option was afforded, and Executive Chair, Megan Wynne and CEO, Michael Anghie will take up that option, if the Scheme is implemented. 
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th September. Expected implementation on the 10 October. The IE says fair & reasonable.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
• We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.
• Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.

• Regis’s McFilamy’s gold project faced setback due to cultural significance of land
• Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s declaration halted project activities
• Project had already been approved under state and federal legislation, causing surprise and confusion

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