In today’s briefing:
- MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Abacus Group Deletion Means More Outflow
- MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact
- MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
- Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 October
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest/Newmont, Dic Corp, Golden Eagle, Mason, MPIC
MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Abacus Group Deletion Means More Outflow
- As expected, Abacus Group (ABG AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index at the close on 15 September.
- Abacus Group (ABG AU) will also be deleted from the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) on the same day, so this increases the sell flow on the stock.
- Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.8% resulting in a one-way trade of A$23.8m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact
- There is one add, one delete, one listing change, plus float and capping changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 6.1% and that results in a one-way trade of US$240m. There are 31 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- There will be some same way and some opposite flows between the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and S&P/ASX 200 (AS51) trackers at the close on 15 September.
MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
- There are no constituent changes for the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the September rebalance. JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) have avoided deletion.
- Float and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 3.5% and in a one-way trade of A$69m.
- There is a lot of short interest on stocks that will have passive buy/sell flows, but there will not be enough volume traded for shorts to use to reduce positions.
Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 October
- Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)‘s IE considers Newmont Mining (NEM US)’s offer of 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + special dividend + FY2023 dividend to be reasonable but not fair.
- The IE valued Newcrest at US$18.64-21.13 per share vs. the transaction value of US$17.10-18.70 per share. The sharp sector de-rating, including Newmont’s shares, has impacted the scrip-heavy offer.
- The offer remains attractive compared to peer multiples, historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios. At the last close prices and for the 6 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.8%.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest/Newmont, Dic Corp, Golden Eagle, Mason, MPIC
- I tally 50 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals this week: the Tender Offer for Dic Corp (4631 JP) and the Partial Offer for Intage Holdings (4326 JP).
- Key updates took place for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM).
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