In today’s briefing:
- ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?
- Emperador (EMP PM): FTSE Inclusion Likely in September
- Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ): LQ45 & MSCI Inclusion Done, FTSE Coming Up
- Oriental Watch: Good Results in the Bag, Cautious H1 2023
- ACommerce Pre-IPO – Updates Since Our Last Note – Probably Has to Scale Further to Become Profitable
- Pola Orbis: Pola Moves to Capture Travel Retail Demand as Air Travel Recovers
- Las Vegas Sands: Totally Asia Facing, It Is Valued on Financial Strength Amid Covid Challenges
- FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Sanne Group Deletion Seems Likely in 3Q 2022
ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?
- Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
- In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?, we look at the latest developments and results.
- The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo’s issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion.
Emperador (EMP PM): FTSE Inclusion Likely in September
- Emperador Inc (EMP PM) passes the FTSE Median Liquidity test and the inclusion thresholds for full market cap and investable market cap and could be added in the FTSE GEIS.
- The inclusion should take place at the September SAIR and that would require passive funds to buy over 84m shares. That is over 35 days of ADV.
- A potential secondary listing in Singapore has moved the stock in the past and that could be another trigger for the stock to move higher.
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ): LQ45 & MSCI Inclusion Done, FTSE Coming Up
- Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) was added to the LQ45 Index in January and the MSCI Indonesia Index in May. The pick-up in liquidity should result in FTSE inclusion.
- If added, passive FTSE trackers will need to buy 631m shares (US$78m; 5 days of ADV) of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) at the close of trading on 16 September.
- Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) trades in line with the average of its peers on EV/EBITDA and forward PE, though it trades expensive as compared to the median.
Oriental Watch: Good Results in the Bag, Cautious H1 2023
- Oriental Watch (398 HK) profit alert for >350 mn HKD affirms our conviction on the increasing dividend (74 HKD cents for FY22, implying a 15.7% dividend yield).
- Lockdowns in China (accounting for 67% of the revenue) cast doubt around how H1 2023 will shape up.
- With cash > 50% of market capitalization, we remain positive on the company maintaining its high dividend payout for FY23 despite weakness in H1.
ACommerce Pre-IPO – Updates Since Our Last Note – Probably Has to Scale Further to Become Profitable
- ACommerce Group (ACOM TB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
- ACommerce is an ecommerce enabler providing end-to-end and ala carte ecommerce solutions for brands in Southeast Asia (SEA).
- In this note, we will discuss aCommerce’s updates since our last note.
Pola Orbis: Pola Moves to Capture Travel Retail Demand as Air Travel Recovers
- Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) is expanding its Travel Retail presence in the region to capitalise on the surge in demand from the recovery of air travel.
- Inbound demand could also return to Japanese cosmetics through the reopening of Japan’s borders to tourists.
- The sector is yet to break out from the downtrend. Investors willing to get in early could do that with Pola Orbis with limited downside risk.
Las Vegas Sands: Totally Asia Facing, It Is Valued on Financial Strength Amid Covid Challenges
- LVS is now entirely a balance sheet play in that its cash position vs. run rate assures good liquidity through the lingering covid crisis.
- Maturities of its debt pose no problems for refis until ’24,’25–and even minimal then.
- Recurring sporadic covid outbreaks and Beijing policies impede GGR recovery. We are moving LVS from BUY to HOLD to reflect the value of its sustainability rather than growth.
FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Sanne Group Deletion Seems Likely in 3Q 2022
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the FTSE 100 Index and the FTSE 250 Index in the September 2022 Rebalance.
- In addition to the Regular Rebalance changes, Sanne Group PLC (SNN LN) could get deleted during the quarter, leaving room for one intra-quarterly ADD for FTSE 250.
- There are more M&A events that could close in the next few months and trigger irregular index changes for both FTSE 100 and FTSE 250.
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