Consumer: Singapore Press Holdings, Pinduoduo, British American Tobacco PLC, ABHotel Co Ltd, Siam Wellness Group, Tosho Co Ltd, Health And Happiness (H&H), Carlsberg A/S and more

• Topday, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) shareholders met in an EGM and a Scheme Meeting to approve the takeover of SPH and distribution of SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) units.
• Shareholders passed resolutions at both meetings, meaning the Cuscaden Peak Pte acquisition is approved. 
• This means we move to next steps, which is choosing the Consideration, and possible MGO Chain Offer on SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP). 

• Pinduoduo (PDD US) shares dropped 6.1% yesterday following the 4Q21 results as the company’s revenue fell short of the consensus estimate by 8.9%.
• Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the company’s user growth as MAUs declined by 8.0m.
• Consensus is yet to factor in the impact on user growth through reduced marketing spend, which makes further downside to Pinduoduo shares possible.

• British American Tobacco is one of the leading tobacco companies in the world. They operate in 180 countries around the world, and have 12% of market share in the industry (2nd most)
• Along with their biggest rival, Toronto-Dominion, Royal Bank of Canada is one of my favorite stocks. 
• Larger military budgets around the world means more revenue for defense contractors like Raytheon

• We updated our earnings forecast for AB Hotel (6565, the company) and raised our target price to 1,600 yen from 1,400 yen. We reiterate our Buy rating.
• On January 31, the company announced 1-3Q (Apr-Dec) FY3/22 OP of 667m yen (+757.0% YoY; OPM 14.1%), 74% progress toward the company’s full-year guidance of 900m yen
• We raised our OP forecasts from 681m yen to 929m yen (+1,995.4% YoY; OPM 14.7%) for FY3/22, 1.355bn yen to 1.495bn yen (OPM 21.2%) for FY3/23

• Maintain BUY rating with a TP of Bt8.30, based on DCF (WACC of 9.8% and Terminal Growth of 3.5%), implying 25.9xPE’23. We see attractive play on reopening, upon the progress 
• Its 4Q21 net loss was at Bt46m, which continued for 7 consecutive quarters, attributed mainly to its operation below EBIT breakeven level.
• SPA’s 2021 net loss was at  Bt287m, pressured by weak revenue growth, which drop 61%YoY upon brief closure of spas and massages in Jan 21 and end of Apr-Sep 21.

• We updated our earnings forecast for Tosho (8920, the company) and maintained our target price at 2,300 yen. We reiterate our Buy rating.
• On February 3, the company announced 1-3Q (Apr-Dec) FY3/22 OP of 1.616bn yen (+55.0% YoY; OPM 10.6%)
• We changed our OP forecasts from 2.464bn yen to 4.403bn yen (+307.7% YoY; OPM 16.2%) for FY3/22, 4.466bn yen to 2.732bn yen (OPM 12.6%) for FY3/23

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Evergrande
• Ronshine China Holdings
• Sunac China Holdings
• Zhenro Properties

• The recent decline in Carlsberg’s share price do not seem to fully reflect the upcoming decline in Return on Capital’s results.
• The company underperforming its major peers, including asset impairments, lower volumes, sales and margins will likely overshadow this year’s results, according to the company.
• The past few years have been particularly hard for beer brewers. Pandemic lockdowns had a devastating impact on on-trade channels and now cost-push inflation is squeezing margins.