Brief Consumer: Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry and more

In this briefing:

1. Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry
2. NIO’s (蔚来) Guidance Makes Selling upon Lock-Expiry More Compelling

1. Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry

Meituan Dianping, the largest O2O platform in China, was listed on September 20th last year and lock-up expiry will be on March 20th. The stock has returned -13% since listing. 

• As it heads into lock-up expiry on March 20th, we will examine Meituan Dianping shareholder structure and potential shares up for sale.
• Meituan was included by MSCI recently and will be eligible for the Hong Kong Connect soon thanks to rule amendment.
• The company delivered a decent topline growth in 3Q2018 but its profit fell short of expectation. We highlight potentials from the food supply chain solution. We also discuss implication from MoBike acquisition.
• We review our SOTP valuation of Meituan and believe there is an upside. 

2. NIO’s (蔚来) Guidance Makes Selling upon Lock-Expiry More Compelling

NIO Inc (NIO US) fell 17% in its after-hour trading session post announcement of its Q4 results.  The company turned a gross profit in Q4 while the number of cars delivered in the full year 2018 was 11,348 has beaten their own 10,000 cars target. The company is currently trading 62% above its IPO price.

However, the worrying part lies in its guidance which could mean that pre-IPO investors have more compelling reasons to lock-in some profits upon lock-up expiry.