Brief Consumer: CyberAgent (4751 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Discussion with the IR Team and more

In this briefing:

1. CyberAgent (4751 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Discussion with the IR Team
2. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth
3. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take – It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either
4. Korean Stubs Spotlight: A Pair Trade Between Hyosung Corp and Hyosung TNC
5. Lippo Malls REIT – Acquisition of Lippo Mall Puri Announced. Dilutive Rights Issue Coming.

1. CyberAgent (4751 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Discussion with the IR Team

Our recent conversation with CyberAgent’s IR team suggests that a significant improvement in the OP margin is unlikely in the next few quarters. The OP margins of both Game business and the Internet Advertisement, while likely to improve gradually, are likely to remain low compared to recent history due to higher advertising and personnel costs.

Upfront investments in AbemaTV are likely to continue until the target of 10m Weekly Average Users (WAU) is met, which could take a year or more. The company expects around 50% of AbemaTV revenue to eventually come from premium users, which seems to be a shift in strategy, from a “free” service towards a more hybrid model.

CyberAgent’s share price closed at ¥4,050 on Tuesday, up 7.1% from its previous close, following the news that the stock was added to the Goldman Sachs’ conviction list with a reiterated buy rating. However, even before this, CyberAgent’s share price had been on a steady increase over the past two weeks (+29.0%), recovering from a one-year low in early February. This increase, despite rather mediocre 1Q results, a downward revision of OP guidance, and lack of any major short term catalysts is an indication that the market deems CyberAgent to be undervalued – mainly on the AbemaTV front.

2. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is looking to raise approximately US$300 – 500m in its upcoming IPO. 

DAF is a fast growing auto finance company which acquires customers through a network of dealership around China. Its net interest income grew by 66% CAGR from FY2016 to FY2018 while net fees/comms income and profit grew by 39.6% and 61% CAGR over the same period.

However, most of its growth originated from ZhengTong dealers and joint promotion arrangement. Excluding loans from joint promotion arrangement, gross outstanding loan had only grown by 12% CAGR.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s business, analyze the competitive landscape, provide thoughts on valuation, and some questions for management.

3. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take – It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$91m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

In my earlier insights, I commented about Tiger’s reliance on IBKR and compared its operations with Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US):

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our framework and comment on valuations.

4. Korean Stubs Spotlight: A Pair Trade Between Hyosung Corp and Hyosung TNC

In this report, we provide an analysis of our pair trade idea between Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS) (market cap of 1,612 billion won) and Hyosung TNC Co Ltd (298020 KS) (market cap of 712 billion won). Our strategy will be to be long Hyosung TNC and be short Hyosung Corp. 

In the past six months, Hyosung Corp is up 62% while Hyosung TNC is down 12%. We believe this price divergence has been excessive. The four major reasons why Hyosung Corp’s share price has surged in the past six months are mentioned below. There is a case to be made that the market has already factored into Hyosung Corp’s share price many of the positive factors mentioned below. 

• Excellent dividends 
• Corporate activism related stock 
• Strong financial results 
• Timing of the increased insider ownerships/Completion of tender offers

Hyosung TNC has underperformed the market as well as Hyosung Corp in the past six months. However, Hyosung TNC appears to be a turnaround story driven by the following factors: 

• Decline in raw material prices 
• Aggressive spandex investment in India 
• Stabilization of spandex prices in 2H19 
• Consolidation of the global spandex industry

5. Lippo Malls REIT – Acquisition of Lippo Mall Puri Announced. Dilutive Rights Issue Coming.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP) (“LMIRT”) today announced the acquisition of Lippo Mall Puri from its sponsor PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk for a consideration of Rp.3,700.0 bil (S$354.7 mil).

There is a significant amount of vendor support provided by Lippo Group to improve the net property income and NPI yield of Lippo Mall Puri. If we exclude the vendor support from the target NPI, the NPI yield excluding vendor support will just be 6.52% per annum.

The transaction is DPU and yield dilutive. The resultant DPU post-transaction will decline from 2.05 S-cents to 1.61 S-cents / 1.42 S-cents. Distribution yield will also fall from 10.25% to 9.28% / 8.85% based on TERP.

The transaction could also potentially result in LMIRT’s gearing increasing from 34.6% to 39.0% which will worsen its balance sheet strength and credit standings. 

In view of the unattractive acquisition and potential EFR dilution, investors should avoid LMIRT for now and wait for opportunity to enter with a greater margin of safety.