Consumer: Kirin Holdings, Huitongda, SJM Holdings, Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading, Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia and more

• Earlier this week, Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s board decided to withdraw from all the businesses in Myanmar urgently.
• With the Myanmar JV issue out of the way and asset write-offs mostly complete, we think Kirin’s normalised EPS will grow at a CAGR of 11% through 2021-24.
• This puts Kirin on 9.4x 2024 EPS, limiting the down side risk to the bare minimum.

• Huitongda (9878 HK) raised around US$285m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• Overall, we are not comfortable with paying a premium valuation for HTD given its small scale of operations in a highly competitive and fragmented market. 
• In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics and current valuation.

• Post CNY results point to the beginning of a sustainable recovery of the Macau gaming market, particularly in the mass segment where SJM has its greatest strength.
• The company’s new flagship Grand Lisboa Palace opened last July by phases and is expected to lead recovery of company fortunes in the out years.
• Moody’s downgrade not an immediate threat but still casts a shadow over out year’s performance when refis must be securely in place.

Perched on the top

• Maintain BUY with unchanged DCF-TP of MYR23.95
• Within expectations
• Strong MY ops mitigated by weaker SG sales
• Planning for heavy capex in FY22

4Q21 results met our/consensus expectations. The brewery industry outlook remains positive with ongoing recovery in on-trade sales alongside easing movement restrictions. However, margin compression could occur in light of elevated raw material costs. Our FY22-FY23E earnings are unchanged and we introduce FY24E. BUY with a DCF-TP of MYR23.95 (WACC: 8%, LT growth: 3%) with decent yields of c.4%.