Consumer: Kakao Pay, PT Surya Citra Media Tbk, Raccoon Holdings, Inc., RPSG Ventures Limited, Universal Entertainment, The Walt Disney Co, Wynn Macau Ltd, Maruti Suzuki India, Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited and more

• When discussing Kakao Pay’s MSCI inclusion, the critical debating point SHOULD BE whether the MSCI will change Alipay’s classification from strategic to non-strategic in the wake of this block deal.
• Suppose the MSCI judges Alipay’s block sales as an investment recovery and anticipates further block sales. In that case, Alipay’s classification may change from strategic to non-strategic.
• The circumstantial probability that the MSCI will make such a decision is relatively high in light of recent examples. In this case, the inclusion will occur at this August QIR.

• The news that PT Surya Citra Media’s digital platform Vidio has raised an additional US$45m from Sinarmas, Grab (GRAB US), and Bali United should be seen as a positive.
• Vidio is Indonesia’s leading OTT platform with 61m subs and 2.5m paying subs forecast to grow to 4m by year-end with Champions League, World Cup, and Original Drama driving demand.
• PT Surya Citra Media looks cheap relative to its holding in Vidio, which is worth 71% of its market cap, and trading at a discount to 5-year average forward PER.

• Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP) is currently maintaining the COVID growth momentum while all others in Japanese e-commerce are face a significant drop-off in demand conditions.
• If this outperformance continues, valuation multiples that look somewhat decent today could look cheap beyond any reasonable doubts in a few years.
• In addition, if Raccoon succeeds in bringing down advertising spending to the pre-COVID level, the share price could rise above the previous peak of ¥3,300.

• We had highlighted in our prior note that IPL Media Rights for next 5Y (2023-27) could fetch a value of over INR 40,000cr.
• The bidding concluded recently. Total value of IPL Media Rights came in at INR 48,390cr, well above the INR 40,000cr expectation and closer to our optimistic scenario of INR 50,000cr.
• RPSGV’s IPL team will receive INR 480cr+ per year from its share in media rights vs INR 300-350cr projected earlier. This improves IRR for RPSGV’s investment in IPL team substantially. 

• The Philippine gaming market is recovering fast from covid with the future of hs biggest casino property plagued by legal battles.
• Founder Kazuo Okada dismissed in 2017 by the Universal board over his alleged financial self dealing, is seen behind a May 31st strong arm takeover of the property.
• The Manila government thus far remains neutral but plans for a Spac IPO by Universal and a US based hedge fund is delayed, but is scheduled to debut by September.

• Indian Premiere League cricket auction has brought in $6.6B thus far, up 3x from the 2018-2022 package, though the per game increase is closer to 2.3x.
• Disney was smart to relinquish the digital rights, saving itself $3.6B in cash (~$2/share) rather than spending to drive worthless Hotstar+ subs (~$0.26/share).
• Google may open up YouTube advertising to 3rd party platforms to settle EU antitrust…a potential boon for The Trade Desk.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Country Garden Holdings Co
• JSW Steel Ltd
• China Datang Corp Renewable Power
• Wynn Macau Ltd

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• U/G to BUY from Hold
• Sales projected to hit record high in 2Q22
• Earnings to remain solid despite GPM pressure
• Promising 2H22E outlook

We upgrade SNNP to BUY from Hold after the share price corrected by 18% since 3 May when we deemed it to be fully valued. Sales momentum remains positive underpinned by greater mobility post-Covid and the successful launch of new products. Cost inflation and labour constraints may put pressure on GPM but solid top-line growth should buoy earnings growth. We believe the recent share price dip offers a buying opportunity, with 23% upside to our DCF-TP of THB18.80 (WACC 7.3% and G.3%).