In today’s briefing:
- FTSE China A50 Index Rebalance Preview: PetroChina, Gree Out Due to Ground Rule Change
- CP Food (CPF TB): Vietnamese Ops To List On HCM Exchange
- Pan Pacific International: A Reasonably Strong Third Quarter Warrants Further Upside
- ONEE: Expect Earnings to Grow YoY and QoQ in 1Q22
- CRC: Expect Strong Earnings Growth YoY in 1Q22
- Genting Malaysia (GENM.KL) – Post Endemic Phase (1 Apr 2022) Observations
- Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Carvana, Life Time Group, Bed Bath & Beyond, Surgery Partners
- Yamaha Motors (7272 JP) | Staying the Course in Choppy Macro Waters
- Hero MotoCorp – Attractive Valuation, 2W Upcycle & EV Transition to Drive Rerating
- Britannia Industries: Volume Growth Encouraging; Maintaining Near-Term Profitability A Challenge
FTSE China A50 Index Rebalance Preview: PetroChina, Gree Out Due to Ground Rule Change
- A Ground Rule change to the index universe will result in the deletion of PetroChina (601857 CH) and Gree Electric Appliances (000651 CH) from the FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I).
- Potential inclusions at the June rebalance are Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH) and Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH). China Citic Bank Corp (601998 CH) is close.
- Assuming three changes are implemented, one-way turnover at the rebalance is estimated at 3.05% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 1,484m.
CP Food (CPF TB): Vietnamese Ops To List On HCM Exchange
- CP Vietnam (CPV), an 82%-held unlisted subsidiary of CP FOODS (CPF TB) (CPF), has applied for a listing on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
- CPV, an integrated agro-industrial and food business play in Vietnam, generated Bt111.1bn of sales in FY21, accounting for 21.7% of CPF’s revenue.
- CPV forms part of Cp Pokphand (43 HK) which was privatised in January this year.
Pan Pacific International: A Reasonably Strong Third Quarter Warrants Further Upside
- Although consensus looks a bit challenging, there could be a decent OP beat yet again in the third quarter.
- Meanwhile Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s valuation is still cheap and has decent potential for multiple expansion.
- Thus, there could be more upside to PPIH if the company dismisses whatever the remaining concerns over profitability through a reasonably strong third-quarter performance.
ONEE: Expect Earnings to Grow YoY and QoQ in 1Q22
- We anticipate channel ONE average all day rating to climb back to top-5 tier channel by 2H22after fell down to no.7 in 1Q22.A recovery in rating will instantly benefit group
- We expect the company to report 1Q22 net profit at Bt219m (+13%YoY +7%QoQ), the highest level in the past three quarter.
- NEE still hold strong position in the digital TV industry with high potential growth of contents distribution via online platforms, other businesses that started to contribute great portion of profit
CRC: Expect Strong Earnings Growth YoY in 1Q22
- We reiterate our BUY rating for CRC with a target price of Bt43.0, based on DCF (WACC of 8.2% and TG of 2%), implying 35xPE’23E, close to Thai commerce sector.
- We expect CRC to report 1Q22 net profit at Bt1.2bn (+208%YoY, -48%QoQ).
- YoY growth will be supported by a recovery in sales from fashion business both Thailand and Italy, a solid demand recovery from tourism related parties, and government stimulus
Genting Malaysia (GENM.KL) – Post Endemic Phase (1 Apr 2022) Observations
- Maintain BUY call with lower TP of MYR3.30 (-2%)
- Cut FY22E EPS but FY23E/FY24E EPS little changed
- RWG VIP market intact post borders reopening
- RWG mass market to get a boost from Singaporeans
Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Carvana, Life Time Group, Bed Bath & Beyond, Surgery Partners
- This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input.
- The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures. These shorts tend to have higher betas and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
- This week we flag: Carvana, Life Time Group, Bed Bath & Beyond, Surgery Partners
Yamaha Motors (7272 JP) | Staying the Course in Choppy Macro Waters
- The share price of Yamaha Motors has sunk to a low of 1x book on concerns that the marine business has peaked
- Recent results and commentary from Brunswick suggest that the market remains as buoyant as ever
- We would be buying the stock ahead of earnings, expecting a similarly bullish outlook from Yamaha
Hero MotoCorp – Attractive Valuation, 2W Upcycle & EV Transition to Drive Rerating
- Operationally in-line results: Hero Moto reported revenue of Rs74.2bn, which was in line with our estimate. ASP stood at Rs62.4k/vehicle.
- Attractive valuation amid 2W recovery and EV opportunity: We value Hero Moto at 15x FY24E EPS and assign Hero Fincorp/Ather Rs96/Rs200 per share value to arrive at a TP of Rs3,161.
- We are baking in EPS AGR of 26% over FY22-24E, led by 14% CAGR growth in volume and 150bps margin expansion.
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Britannia Industries: Volume Growth Encouraging; Maintaining Near-Term Profitability A Challenge
- BRIT’s top line improved by 15.5% YoY in Q4FY22 but remained flattish QoQ. The company reported revenues of Rs 3,508 Cr, up 15.5% YoY, driven by mid-single digit volume growth of 4% on account of share gains from unorganized players
- Gross Margin (GPM) of 37.3% in Q4FY22 was lower than 136bps YoY owing to a sharp QoQ and YoY rise in prices of RMs like palm oil and crude that impacted prices of packing material and transport costs
- Retain HOLD with revised TP of Rs 3,650 (earlier Rs 3,700), valuing BRIT at 43x PE its FY24E EPS.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.
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