In today’s briefing:
- KOSPI 200 Rebalancing D-60: Names for Position Buildups
- Shakey’s Pizza: Getting Less Shaky As The Philippines Emerges From COVID
- Etsy: House of Brands, Revisited.
- Melco Resorts: A Bottom Fishing Opportunity in This Asia Gaming Leader
- Berli Jucker (BJC IJ) – Ride the Retail and Packaging Recovery
KOSPI 200 Rebalancing D-60: Names for Position Buildups
- Since we are currently at a point of two months toward the KOSPI 200 rebalancing, we should start building up positions on stocks with a higher probability among the candidates.
- Six additions for position buildups: F&F (383220 KS), Meritz Fire (000060 KS), SD Biosensor (137310 KS), Iljin Hysolus (271940 KS), Hanil Cement (300720 KS), & K Car (381970 KS)
- Six deletions for position buildups: Nexen Tire (002350 KS), Cuckoo Holdings (192400 KS), S&T Motiv (064960 KS), Sk Discovery (006120 KS), Bukwang Pharmaceutical (003000 KS), & Poongsan Corp (103140 KS)
Shakey’s Pizza: Getting Less Shaky As The Philippines Emerges From COVID
- The Philippines’ largest full-service Pizza chain, Shakey’s Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) is currently trading at PHP 7.60, 7.3% below its April 2022 follow-on offer price of PHP 8.20.
- With the ending of COVID restrictions, we expect the company’s financial performance to improve drastically over the next few quarters.
- This should alter the trajectory of Shakey’s to aggressively take back the share price towards the pre-COVID level.
Etsy: House of Brands, Revisited.
- It is my opinion that the pull-forward exhibited in this business stands to be a net positive, regardless of how the share price might behave in the interim.
- The last 24 months have brought in 43M new active buyers to the Etsy marketplace, as well as 2.6M new sellers for a grand total of 90.1M buyers (+9.2M YoY) and 5.3M sellers (+900K YoY)
- Etsy managed to surprise investors in Q4, putting up greater than anticipated revenue ($717M/+16%) for the period, as well as record GMS ($4.2B/+17%)
Melco Resorts: A Bottom Fishing Opportunity in This Asia Gaming Leader
- By many standard measures, Melco Resorts & Entertainment shares appear to be either fully or overvalued even at its pandemic beaten down price of $US6.94.
- A discounted cash flow analysis revealed a negative -US($1.18) intrinsic value. But the calculation is based on assumed path of pandemic too difficult to predict accurately.
- The company had a pre-pandemic Macau market share of over 16%. It is among the leaders in Manila’s entertainment zone, and expects its Cyprus property to open by Dec. 2022
Berli Jucker (BJC IJ) – Ride the Retail and Packaging Recovery
- Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 4Q2021 results marked a turnaround in both its packaging business in glass and cans plus better performance from Big C as mobility improved during the quarter.
- The outlook for packaging looks positive and the Big C will open more outlets in 2022 plus renovating around 20 hypermarkets plus opening new formats this year.
- Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains an interesting recovery play for Thailand and Vietnam, with the potential for more retail exposure there in the future. Valuations stack up versus peers.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
