In this briefing:
- Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019
- RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall. Politics Take Over from Fundamentals
- Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships
- Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM
- Is China Losing the Soft Power Battle?
1. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019
In a follow up to my note from last year Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2017…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2018 I again look at my stock ideas that have worked out in 2018, those that have not and those where the verdict is still pending.
Last year I provided 5 high conviction ideas and here is their performance in a brutal year for Asian Stock Markets:
Company | Share Price 27 Dec 2017 | Share Price 20 December 2018 | Dividends | % Total Return |
0.70 HKD | 0.88 HKD | 0.01 HKD | +27% | |
0.20 SGD | 0.27 SGD | 0.0 SGD | +35% | |
2.39 HKD | 2.82 HKD | 0.147 HKD | +24% | |
0.84 SGD | 0.85 SGD | 0.02 SGD | +3.5% | |
1.44 MYR | 0.32 MYR | 0.0 MYR | -79% |
4 out of 5 had a positive performance.
Below I will make a new attempt to provide five high conviction ideas going into 2019.
2. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall. Politics Take Over from Fundamentals
- US: Stocks fall on political turmoil despite positive noises from the Fed with a dovish rate hike, a reduction in expected 2019 hikes and positive trends on employment and inflation.
- Russia: Unexpected 25 bps rate hike in the face of higher inflation in Nov. Watch for impact of lower oil prices in coming quarters.
- Turkey: Economic developments remain negative. The outlook for retail sales is poor as the economy in general is faltering.
- Indonesia: Trade deficit in November. Exports down 3.3%; imports up 11.68%. This disappointing performance could be the beginning of a trend.
3. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships
- We’ve reviewed 10 companies in the sector. Of those, three are the consensus favorites of our Tokyo based panel of industry, financial and economics observers of the IR initiative over many years.
- Based on pachinko alone, the stocks of these companies are fully valued. Based on potential tailwind from a license award within 6 months, they could be vastly undervalued.
- Each of the three noted here brings strength to a bid less based on financials than corporate focus, outlook and experience in the field.
4. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM
With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.
5. Is China Losing the Soft Power Battle?
Recent figures show China slipping down the Soft Power Index while Chinese language learning in the USA is also in decline. Have tighter controls over education policy and restrictions on academic freedom in China spooked the crowd?
