Brief China: US Should Play Trump Card on South China Sea Disputes – Redeploy to Subic Bay and more

In this briefing:

1. US Should Play Trump Card on South China Sea Disputes – Redeploy to Subic Bay
2. Flash During Trade Talks
3. StubWorld: PCCW Is “Cheap” but Stub Ops Are Deteriorating
4. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts
5. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation

1. US Should Play Trump Card on South China Sea Disputes – Redeploy to Subic Bay

• Trump Should Play Winning Hand in South China Sea – Return Major Military Presence to Subic Bay
• Returning a major US military presence to Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines would be a strong signal to Beijing that the US takes their alliances and position in Asia strongly.
• The Trump administration has been distracted by concerns over trade and has not maintained a sensible eye on other US interests around the world.
• Playing this important ‘Trump card’ in SE Asia would be a powerful signal that the US considers China’s actions in the South China Sea to be illegitimate. This would also send a strong positive signal to US allies in SE and North East Asia (Japan and Korea) that the US is committed to open navigation in this important waterway.

2. Flash During Trade Talks

So we hear that President Trump may be doing something in Vietnam prior to the March 1 trade deadline. Even though Trump tweeted the tariffs will not be implemented on March 1, you can be sure that negotiations are still going at full speed. However, in the shadow of trade talks we are looking at China’s Flash numbers as an indicator of economic health.

3. StubWorld: PCCW Is “Cheap” but Stub Ops Are Deteriorating

This week in StubWorld …

• Select media ops (Free TV and OTT), together with substantial losses booked to other businesses and eliminations, continue to weigh heavily on PCCW Ltd (8 HK)‘s stub ops.

Preceding my comments on PCCW and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

4. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts

CStone Pharma’s IPO was priced at HKD 12.00/share and started trading today. In this insight, we summarize the allocation, the use of proceeds and recap our view on our valuation. We also look at past few biotech listings and discuss our thoughts on the market sentiments. We are of the view that despite a strong debut performance, CStone lacks near term catalysts that can continue to drive performance after the first day. 

Our Previous Coverage of CStone

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)
• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)

5. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise around US$300m in its US IPO. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) , Matrix Partners and Sequoia.

In my earlier insight, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance along with some of the other firms that are competing in the same space. 

This insight covers the positive and negative takeaways from the FY18 updated filing and also includes our thoughts on valuation.