In this briefing:
1. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: HK & Macau Gained ‘Share’ in December, Continuing H218 Trend
Tracking Traffic/Chinese Tourism is the hub for all of our research on China’s tourism sector. This monthly report features analysis of Chinese tourism data, notes from our conversations with industry participants, and links to recent company news and thematic pieces. Our aim is to highlight important trends in China’s tourism sector (and changes to those trends).
In this issue readers can find:
- As it has throughout the latter half of 2018, HK & Macau traffic boomed in December: Over the last several months, we believe Chinese tourists have been staying ‘closer to home’, for a variety of reasons. December’s Chinese outbound tourist figures support this idea, as visits to nearby Hong Kong and Macau surged, and trips to destinations farther afield moderated.
- An analysis of December domestic Chinese travel activity, which remained subdued: Overall domestic travel demand, measured in passenger-kms, grew by 3.4% in December, similar to H118 growth. But while rail and highway travel growth held up relatively well compared to earlier in 2018, air travel in December was again weak relative to H118’s strength, up 9.1% after climbing 13.8% in the first half of the year.
- China-to-USA travel activity continued to weaken in December: US tourist and student visa issuance and visits to Hawaii all declined again in December. We think the declines reflect some Chinese tourists turning cautious on the economy (and thus disposable income), but the declines may also reflect changing Chinese policy.
Although we remain positive on the long-term growth of Chinese tourism, it’s clear that near-term demand growth has slowed, and that Chinese tourists are generally staying closer to home and probably spending less than they were a year ago.
Happy New Year (of the Pig)!
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