In this briefing:
- Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
- ’Fake News’ Threatens China’s Rally
- Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
- HK Connect Discovery – February Snapshot (Tencent, COFCO Meat)
- Weekly Oil Views: OPEC Shrugs off Trump’s “Take It Easy” Tweet, but Crude Complies
1. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.
The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates.
Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement.
2. ’Fake News’ Threatens China’s Rally
- Widely held view that Chinese eased ‘massively’ in January 2019 – it did NOT
- According to latest daily Open Market Operations little change through February
- Liquidity matters hugely (China contributes around one-fifth of Global Liquidity)
- We still expect PBoC easing over coming weeks and continue to favour Chinese markets
3. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:
- Company’s history.
- Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
- Our thoughts on valuation.
4. HK Connect Discovery – February Snapshot (Tencent, COFCO Meat)
This is a monthly version of our HK Connect Weekly note, in which I highlight Hong Kong-listed companies leading the southbound flow weekly. Over the past month, we have seen the outflow continue from January. In February, we have seen Chinese investors were selling Tencent in February after buying Tencent in January. Chinese investors were also buying domestic automotive manufacturers and Macau gaming sectors.
Our February Coverage of Hong Kong Connect southbound flow
- HK Connect Discovery Weekly: China Tower, Geely, COFCO Meat (2019-02-15)
- HK Connect Discovery Weekly: Geely, Great Wall Motor and Sands China (2019-02-22)
5. Weekly Oil Views: OPEC Shrugs off Trump’s “Take It Easy” Tweet, but Crude Complies
As stock-market watchers begin to pick “resistance levels” for benchmark equity indexes that have been steadily heading north amid optimism over a US-China trade deal, we wonder if Trump and his tweets are the barrier point for crude’s rally.
And if they are, what might the US president’s “pain threshold” be? For his latest shot across OPEC’s bow, it appeared to be Brent touching a three-month high just above $67/barrel.
OPEC shrugged off Trump’s gentle warning. Saudi Energy Minister and de facto leader of the oil exporters’ group, Khalid al-Falih, appeared smiling and relaxed when asked about Trump’s tweet in a CNBC interview. OPEC was indeed “taking it easy,” he said. The group and its non-OPEC collaborators were determined to rebalance the markets, but with a “very slow and measured approach,” Al-Falih said.
We believe OPEC will be careful not to over-tighten the market this time around. Perhaps Trump was being over-cautious. If a US-China trade deal is signed in the next few weeks (that may happen on March 27, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday), global stock markets could rally further. But they will not take crude along for the entire ride.
Our Chart of the Week shows that the rebound of the past two months in global equities has already left crude’s recovery far behind. The divergence should not come as a surprise. Crude may have already priced in most of the economic impetus of a US-China trade rapprochement. Unlike the MSCI global stock market index, which is closing in on its early-October levels (before the start of the financial markets turmoil), crude is highly unlikely to get within sight of the four-year highs it touched on October 3, shortly before it hit the skids.
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