In this briefing:
- REIT Discover: Sasseur Sizzles with 9% Yield
- HK Connect Discovery Weekly: PICC, Xinyi Solar (2019-03-08)
- Weekly Oil Views: Crude Eyes Tightening Supply but in the Shadow of Gloom
- Short Haidilao (海底捞) Before Earning & Lock-Up Expiry
- Futu Holdings IPO Trading Update – Might Be Trading a Little Too High
1. REIT Discover: Sasseur Sizzles with 9% Yield
REIT Discover is an insight series featuring under-researched and off-the-radar REITs in an attempt to identify hidden gems and gems in-the-making. In this issue, we follow up on the first China outlet mall REIT listed in Singapore, Sasseur Real Estate Investment (SASSR SP) , whose share price is down 7.5% from its IPO price of S$0.80 since its debut on 28 March 2018. Its distributable income exceeded its IPO forecast for FY2018. Annualized distribution per unit (DPU) yield for FY2018 was 9.1% based on current price. Moving forward, FY2019 DPU projection is S$0.06, translating into a DPU yield of 8.1% compared to FY2018. It is likely that the DPU for the projection years are conservative and the REIT manager will endeavour to beat the IPO forecast for FY2019 and even the annualized DPU for FY2018.
Sasseur REIT’s business model differs from other typical retail malls which lease out assets and receive rental income based on an agreed rental rate. Instead, it has structured a complex form of master lease, called the Entrusted Management Agreement (EMA), where it received a percentage of tenants’ sales turnover as the rental. As such, income generated its portfolio of properties are mainly sales-driven and hence may be unstable.
Essentially, the EMA encompasses a set of obligations that binds the sponsor to a two-year income support to Sasseur REIT in exchange for a long-term master lease which limits DPU upside. This is because a large chunk of the portfolio’s potential revenue growth will go to the sponsor.
We are not saying this is all bad; the master lease under the EMA provides income stability to the REIT given that gross revenue is sales-driven. Rather, we acknowledge the resilience of the outlet mall business model as seen from the long and successful track record of Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc (SKT US) in the United States and strong growth of Bailian Group’s outlet business in China. What is striking is China’s small outlet market size relatively to the mature regions despite the sheer size of its growing middle to upper-middle class population. This suggests that China’s outlet industry could grow significantly.
At 29% gearing ratio, Sasseur REIT has additional debt headroom of S$283mn to tap on its right-of-first-refusal (ROFR) pipeline of assets to grow its S$1.5bn initial portfolio. Even without inorganic growth, two of its properties, representing 43% of total portfolio valuation, are relatively new assets in their third year of operation, suggesting strong potential for growth. Sasseur REIT looks promising based its results in the last three quarters. Sasseur REIT’s premium P/NAV of 1.03x at the point of listing was surprisingly expensive given that its properties are non-prime outlet malls in China’s Tier-Two cities. P/NAV has since fallen to an attractive 0.8x.
2. HK Connect Discovery Weekly: PICC, Xinyi Solar (2019-03-08)
In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by mainland investors in the past seven days.
We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.
In this insight, we will highlight PICC and Xinyi Solar.
3. Weekly Oil Views: Crude Eyes Tightening Supply but in the Shadow of Gloom
Crude has been gradually reconnecting with its supply-demand fundamentals, and the impact of highly disciplined OPEC cuts just two months into the group’s production restraint deal is becoming evident in relatively stable prices. Through much of last week, crude prices firmed and stood their ground even as global stock markets were skidding.
However, oil is not completely out of the shadows of the global economic sentiment. Crude prices were whiplashed last Friday along with the equity markets as a fresh wave of gloom and doom from the European Central Bank’s downward revision of eurozone growth projections rattled investors. Earlier in the week, China set off fresh alarm bells, by officially revising down its 2019 GDP growth target to 6-6.5%, while Premier Li Keqiang warned that the country’s economy faced a “tough struggle” ahead.
Nonetheless, benchmark Brent and WTI crude futures resisted the lows plumbed during intraday trading Friday, to close marginally higher on the week. While global oil demand growth forecasts remain tentative, supply fundamentals are clearly firming. Output from 11 of OPEC’s 14 members that agreed to collectively curb output by around 812,000 b/d starting January this year almost reached 100% of the target in February.
The race to the compliance finish line was helped by Saudi Arabia, which is slashing its output way beyond its commitment. Meanwhile, the three OPEC members exempted from the latest round of production cuts — Iran, Libya and Venezuela — are also under-delivering. That amounted to OPEC-14 production plunging by around 1.7 million b/d compared with the high of last October.
OPEC will need to be careful not to over-tighten the market, as happened through the first half of last year. We believe the group will be cautious on that front, given its experience of 2018, when it was forced to make two policy U-turns in the space of six months.
4. Short Haidilao (海底捞) Before Earning & Lock-Up Expiry
Haidilao International, the largest Chinese cuisine player by valuation, was listed on September 26th last year and lock-up expiry will be on March 26th. The stock has returned 24% since listing.
- As it heads into lock-up expiry, we will examine Haidilao’s shareholder structure and potential shares up for sale.
- Haidilao was included in the Hong Kong Connect Scheme on December 10th, 2018 and shares held by mainland investors have been consistently increasing.
- But we think Haidilao’s valuation has built in a perfect growth scenario.
- Risk of de-rating for Haidilao warrants a short position.
Our previous coverage on Meituan Dianping
- Haidilao IPO First Glance: Legendary Hot Pot Restaurant that Will Be Hot (Part 1)
- Haidilao (海底捞) IPO: Superior Metrics in a Scalable Segment (Part 2)
- Haidilao (海底捞) IPO: Near Term Rapid Growth but Deceleration Ahead (Part 3)
- Haidilao (海底捞) IPO: Appealing Valuation at the Low End for a Branded National Champion (Part 4)
- Haidilao (海底捞) Post-IPO Trading Update: Not Much Upside from High End, Lessons from Meituan
5. Futu Holdings IPO Trading Update – Might Be Trading a Little Too High
Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US)‘s IPO was priced at the top-end at US$12/ADS raising a total of US$160m, including the US$70m raised from General Atlantic via a concurrent private placement.
In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background, past financial performance, scored the deal on our IPO framework and compared it to Tiger Brokers:
- Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry,
- Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation,
- Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End, and
- Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
In this insight, I will re-visit some of the deal dynamics, comment on share price drivers and provide a table with implied valuations.
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