In this briefing:
- Meituan Dianping (3690 HK): Lock-Up Expiry – Good 4Q18 Required
- Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive
1. Meituan Dianping (3690 HK): Lock-Up Expiry – Good 4Q18 Required
Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)‘s shares currently trade 18% below its IPO price of HK$69.00 per share. Meituan will announce its 4Q18 results on Monday, 11 March 2019, after market close. Notably, Meituan’s six-month lock-up period expires on 19 March 2019.
We believe that should Meituan deliver a strong 4Q18; it will likely not experience Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)’s share price collapse after the end of its six-month lock-up period.
2. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive
- Capital flows are strongly Granger causal
- Gross capital flows lead World shipping activity by 4 months
- Capital flows have been slowly rising since June 2018: in February they jumped
- Reinforces out pro-Asia and pro-China investment message
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