In this briefing:
- Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
- Baidu (BIDU): Stagnant in 4Q18, Wrong Change Feeds a 24% User Increase to Google
- China’s Coal Conundrum
- Notes from the Silk Road: Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689.HK) – Potential Volatility Risk
- Weekly Oil Views: Crude Rises to 3-Month High but Further Upside May Be Limited
1. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise around US$300m in its US IPO. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) , Matrix Partners and Sequoia.
In my earlier insight, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance along with some of the other firms that are competing in the same space.
This insight covers the positive and negative takeaways from the FY18 updated filing and also includes our thoughts on valuation.
2. Baidu (BIDU): Stagnant in 4Q18, Wrong Change Feeds a 24% User Increase to Google
- Baidu posted a weak result for 4Q2018.
- We believe it is a wrong decision to change Baidu into an in-house search engine.
- Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) ’s monthly active users in mainland China increased 24% QoQ in January 2019.
- We believe Baidu’s stock price has been fairly impacted.
3. China’s Coal Conundrum
Last Friday China torpedoed Australia’s coal imports after announcing that the middle kingdom would no longer accept coal imports from Australia. This leads us to consider some of the energy issues related to China. We write often about coal and the importance it has on China’s energy consumption.
4. Notes from the Silk Road: Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689.HK) – Potential Volatility Risk
On the eve of the Chinese New Year holiday Nine Dragon Paper (NDP) released a profit warning regarding their H1 FY19 fiscal earnings. This warning came ahead of the 26th February 2019 Board Meeting.
Management guidance calls for a decrease for H1-2019 of approximately 45% YoY and revenue line of not less than RMB2.4bn. NDP cites an increase in raw materials and a decrease in the selling price of the products.
Despite the negative news, the share price has rallied 15% since the announcement. We examine the implications.
5. Weekly Oil Views: Crude Rises to 3-Month High but Further Upside May Be Limited
Another week of US-China negotiations and another big boost to market sentiment. Stock markets as well as crude rallied last week on the back of news from Washington that the US and China were preparing to sign a framework deal in the form of several MoUs covering trade and structural issues.
But there are other economic concerns around the globe, and a preliminary deal between the US and China is not going to curb all the headwinds. Further upside to crude may also be limited because much of the anticipated rapprochement between the two countries has already been factored in. WTI prices stabilising well above the $50/barrel threshold are also likely to support strong growth in US production, which hit the 12 million b/d mark last week.
Nonetheless, there are factors on the supply front that could trigger a spike beyond $70/barrel for Brent, especially if combined with a turnaround in economic and oil demand growth expectations.
If that happens, we believe the Saudis will ease up on over-compliance with their own production cuts, either voluntarily or under renewed pressure from US President Donald Trump.
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