In this briefing:
- China Tower Results Confirm Lower Capex Outlook, but Were Otherwise Mixed
- ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
- China Headwinds May Have Less Impact on Macau VIP Revenue than Forecasted
- Xinyi Solar Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well, Improvement in Sentiment Should Help
- NIO (NIO US): Lock-Up Expiry – This Could Get Messy
1. China Tower Results Confirm Lower Capex Outlook, but Were Otherwise Mixed
China Tower (788 HK) reported 4Q18 results that looks slightly disappointing. However, they did deliver strong net profit, confirmation that capex is likely to materially undershoot guidance, and the first dividend for the company. However, while that is positive, there were areas of disappointment, with weaker revenue growth and EBITDA.
Our view remains that China Tower’s shares are relatively undervalued and expect share prices to continue to move higher over time, as the stock reflects its inflecting ROIC. It remains our favored name in China given the risks of policy driven over-investment into 5G (see Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade).
2. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
ESR Cayman (ESR HK) aims to raise up to US$1.5bn in its planned Hong Kong listing, as per media reports. The company is backed by Warburg Pincus and counts APG, the Netherlands’ largest pension provider, as one of its main investors.
ESR operates an end-to-end model starting from development of the asset to divesting it to one of its private funds and/or REITs. It operates in China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and India. AUM has grown rapidly over the past few years as the company has undertaken a number of acquisitions in the recent past.
In this insight, I’ll touch upon the company’s business model and provide an overview of its operations.
3. China Headwinds May Have Less Impact on Macau VIP Revenue than Forecasted
- Our profile of VIP gamblers indicate greater resiliency to slowing macro economics due to the nature of their wealth sources and motivations. We continue to believe Macau stocks are cheap.
- Our overall market forecast for 2019 remains +8% y/y. It includes a 4% upside in VIP.
- VIP gamblers behavior patterns lean to more influence from personal, rather than economic factors such as macro headwinds.
4. Xinyi Solar Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well, Improvement in Sentiment Should Help
Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) is looking to raise about US$170m in its top-up placement with an upsize option of 225m shares.
The deal scored well on our framework owing to its good track record, strong earnings and price momentum. The company’s 2H 2018 result had marginally beaten estimates while the news of China potentially reversing its effort to reduce solar subsidy has helped improve the overall sentiment of Xinyi Solar. On top of that, the past deals have generally done well.
5. NIO (NIO US): Lock-Up Expiry – This Could Get Messy
Yesterday, NIO Inc (NIO US)’s share tumbled 20% on the back of poor 1Q19 guidance. NIO warned that deliveries of ES8, its electric SUV, have been sluggish so far in 2019 and scrapped plans to build its Shanghai Manufacturing Plant. NIO blamed the slump on uncertainty over government subsidies for electric vehicles, China’s slowing economy and disruption caused by the Chinese New Year holidays.
The weak guidance could not come at a worse time as its six-month lock-up period expires on 11 March 2019. We continue to remain bears on NIO and believe that the lock-up expiry will lead to further share price weakness.
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