Daily Equities Bottom-Up: LG Uplus: Two Key Catalysts in 2019 (5G Roll-Out & Potential Acquisition of CJ Hellovision) and more

In this briefing:

1. LG Uplus: Two Key Catalysts in 2019 (5G Roll-Out & Potential Acquisition of CJ Hellovision)
2. Jeans Mate Posts a Profit at Last
3. JD.com (JD): Lawsuit Over, Price Falling Back to First Trading Day, Defensive in Bear Market
4. India Generic Drugs: Antitrust Suit Could Cost Billions
5. Duzonbizon: Capitalizing on the Growth of Cloud Based CRM Software in Korea

1. LG Uplus: Two Key Catalysts in 2019 (5G Roll-Out & Potential Acquisition of CJ Hellovision)

• LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS) was a clear market winner in 2018 as the stock was up 26% last year versus KOSPI which was down 17%. We think that LG Uplus is likely to continue to outperform the market over the next 12 months. There are many catalysts with this stock but the two most important catalysts on this stock over the next 12 months include the 5G roll-out and the potential acquisition of Cj Hellovision (037560 KS). 
• LG Uplus experienced a breakout year in 2013 with a steep increase in its share price. LG Uplus’ wireless ARPU increased 13.6% YoY in 2013, driven by higher ARPU 4G/LTE subscribers, which jumped from 4.4 million at end of 2012 to 7.1 million at end of 2013. Similar to the positive impact that the roll-out of 4G services had on LG Uplus’ wireless service ARPU and its share price, we believe that the roll-out of 5G services will have a positive impact on the company’s ARPU and its share price in 2019 and 2020. 
• At current price of 9,060 won for CJ Hellovision (market cap of 702 billion won), the EV is 1.3 trillion won, which would suggest an EV/EBITDA of 3.9x, using an estimated EBITDA of 272 billion won. If we double the value, the EV/EBITDA multiple would spike to 7.4x. LG Uplus is currently trading at 4.0x EV/EBITDA using 2018 consensus EBITDA estimates. Although it is a normal practice to pay a significant premium in Korea for an acquisition of a large controlling stake in a company, LG Uplus is probably analyzing on every angle to see if it is worth it paying a hefty 7.4x EV/EBITDA multiple for CJ Hellovision. 

2. Jeans Mate Posts a Profit at Last

While Rizap Group (2928 JP) has seen its share price crash and its CEO bow in apology after profit warnings and a plan to radically cut back on M&A, Jeans Mate Corp (7448 JP), which Rizap acquired last year, has quickly moved to modernise stores. It has just replaced its Shibuya store with a new concept called JEM that could mean the end of the Jeans Mate name altogether and posted its first operating profit in years. While many of Rizap’s acquisitions were dubious, Jeans Mate is one business that could be turned around into a modestly successful casual apparel retailer.

3. JD.com (JD): Lawsuit Over, Price Falling Back to First Trading Day, Defensive in Bear Market

• Minnesotan Authorities declined to charge the founder of JD.
• JD’s stock price has already plunged 52% in 2018. We believe JD is a defensive equity for portfolios, as the NASDAQ Composite just plunged 50% at most in the financial crisis of 2008.
• Compared to 2014, today’s JD has a higher market share in the larger e-commerce market. However, JD’s stock price is at the same level as the first trading day in 2014.
• JD continued to generate operating cash inflows in 2018 as previous years despite of its zero net margins.
• We are not concerned about the programmer layoff in December, as we believe JD overly invested in “hi-tech” that will not bring revenues in the near future.
• Based on historical Price / GMV, we believe there is an upside of 270% for JD’s stock price.

4. India Generic Drugs: Antitrust Suit Could Cost Billions

This Insight builds on our previous Insight, India Generic Drugs: US Antitrust Inquiry Widens by discussing estimated potential liabilities and details contained in court filings. Public comments by one of the plaintiffs (47 states) suggest the defendants’ aggregate liability could exceed US$6 billion, the largest previous settlement on record. There is not enough information to apportion potential liability by company, but some companies are better-positioned to bear the cost of a settlement than others. The process could drag on for an undetermined period of time (which helps the defendants). At the same time, the overhang will keep a lid on generic drug prices in the US market. 

Among Indian generic companies, Dr. Reddy’S Laboratories (DRRD IN), Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN),Cadila Healthcare (CDH IN), and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN) have the highest risk based on their market caps and exposure to the US market.       

5. Duzonbizon: Capitalizing on the Growth of Cloud Based CRM Software in Korea

Duzonbizon (012510 KS) (also spelled “Douzonbizon”), is a leading beneficiary of the expanding cloud based CRM software market in Korea. The Korean public cloud market is expected to grow from 2.0 trillion won in 2018 to 2.4 trillion won in 2019. In the case of the domestic public cloud market, SaaS will continue to be strong. One of the catalysts that could positively impact the cloud industry in Korea is that there could be a change in the regulations which may allow many of the government related offices to start using private cloud services starting in 2019. 

The company has very little competition in the Lite ERP segment, where it has a near monopoly position. The customers that use this product are typically small companies with annual sales of less than 10 billion won to 20 billion won. Other major competitors have not chosen to aggressively fight against Duzonbizon in this segment.  The company’s cloud business is based on providing cloud-based ERP products. The company has been able to significantly increase its total sales by providing the ERP products as a cloud based service. The customers can reduce costs on servers and personnel by relying on the company’s cloud based ERP software and services. 

Duzonbizon is currently trading at 29x P/E (2019E) and 24x P/E (2020E), using consensus earnings estimates. The company’s P/E valuation multiples have been rising in the past several years and the valuation multiples have ranged in the 20-40x. While the company’s valuation multiples are relatively higher than the KOSPI market average, they are lower than the global CRM software leaders such as Salesforce.Com Inc (CRM US), which is currently trading at 49x P/E. Despite the recent volatility in Duzonbizon’s share price in the past few months, we are positive on the stock over the next one year and we think the stock could climb by an additional 20-30% over the next year. We believe that the company has a very strong business moat with a very loyal customer base. We want to start 2019 recommending a solid, emerging growth company in the Korean tech space and so we believe that Duzonbizon is a good company to start off with.