In this briefing:
- Recruit Holdings Reports Strong 3Q Results; Remains Expensive
- Facebook Inc. – Is Consensus Overly Cautious?
- GMO Internet Reports Solid FY12/18 Despite Heavy Losses Incurred in Crypto Mining Business
- Parco: 4 New Shopping Centres This Year, 28% Rise in Revenue in 5 Years to 2021
- Hana Financial: Hand It to Hana
1. Recruit Holdings Reports Strong 3Q Results; Remains Expensive
Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported its 3Q FY03/19 financial results on Wednesday (13th February). Recruit’s revenue and EBITDA were up 6.0% YoY and 11.1% YoY respectively in 3Q FY03/19. This was mostly due to 1) consolidation of the results of Glassdoor Inc. (the company which operates the employment information website glassdoor.com), 2) steady growth in Japanese staffing operations and 3) growth in beauty and real estate app users during the quarter, partially offset by slowdown in global recruitment activity.
Despite its strong 3Q results and steady topline and bottom line growth over the forecast period, at a FY2 EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.0x, Recruit doesn’t look particularly attractive to us. Recruit’s internet advertising business and employment business peers, Yahoo Japan (4689 JP) and Persol Holdings (2181 JP) are trading at FY2 EV/EBITDAs of 6.8x and 7.5x respectively.
| FY03/18 | FY03/19E | FY03/20E |
Consolidated Revenue (JPYbn) | 2,171 | 2,327 | 2,478 |
YoY Growth % | 11.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% |
Consolidated EBITDA (JPYbn) | 258 | 288 | 312 |
EBITDA Margin % | 11.9% | 12.4% | 12.6% |
2. Facebook Inc. – Is Consensus Overly Cautious?
Facebook Inc A (FB US) is a bellwether stock for the equity markets. Although the market capitalisation is approaching $475 billion, the Company is still considered a growth stock. In our view, 2019 could be a pivotal year for the Company after a lack lustre 2018, when FB, although volatile, underperformed the NASDAQ. We believe that investors are underestimating revenue growth for 2019 and that FB is likely to surprise to the upside in Q1-19.
3. GMO Internet Reports Solid FY12/18 Despite Heavy Losses Incurred in Crypto Mining Business
GMO Internet, Inc. (9449 JP) announced its consolidated financial results for its full-year FY12/18 yesterday (12th February). Despite heavy losses incurred in the cryptocurrency mining business in FY12/18, GMO managed to achieve a solid year with 20% YoY growth in top-line alongside a 23.5% YoY growth in operating profits. Excluding the crypto losses, the operating profit increased 35.7% YoY, with an OPM of 13.2% compared to 11.4% reported a year ago. For the full-year, the company has reported a net loss of JPY20.7bn as opposed to a net profit of JPY8bn in FY12/17, blaming the crypto losses for the decline. For FY12/18, the management has proposed a dividend of JPY29.5 per share (compared to JPY23 paid in FY12/17) in spite of reporting net losses for the fiscal year. Further, the company has also allocated JPY1.36bn (equivalent to 0.7% of outstanding shares at the current price) for share repurchases in FY2019.
JPY (bn) | FY12/17 | FY12/18 | YoY Change | FY12/18 Excluding Crypto | FY12/18 Excl. Crypto Vs. FY12/17 | Consensus | Company Vs. Consensus |
Revenue | 154.3 | 185.2 | 20.1% | 180.9 | 17.3% | 183.3 | 1.0% |
Operating Profit | 17.6 | 21.8 | 23.5% | 23.9 | 35.7% | 22.8 | -4.5% |
OPM | 11.4% | 11.8% |
| 13.2% | 12.4% |
| |
Net Profit | 8.0 | -20.7 | -357.9% | 8.4 | 4.1% |
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GMO is currently trading at JPY1,741 per share which we believe is undervalued compared to its combined equity stake in 8 listed subsidiaries. The company share price has lost more than 40% since it peaked in June last year due to the negativity surrounding its cryptocurrency and mining segment. However, we believe further downside is limited as the company has closed down a majority of its mining related business which weighs very little on the consolidated performance of the company. Further, the company’s key businesses, Internet Infrastructure, Online Advertising & Media and Internet Finance generate solid recurring revenues, which should help the company achieve strong growth. Following its earnings announcement, the share price gained 5.6% from the previous days close.
4. Parco: 4 New Shopping Centres This Year, 28% Rise in Revenue in 5 Years to 2021
Parco (8251 JP) is enjoying a new lease of life under J Front Retailing (3086 JP) ownership, investing assiduously in updating existing buildings and showing a decisiveness to rebuild entirely where location merits it and even closing down stores that don’t work.
It will celebrate its 50th anniversary this year by opening four new buildings, including the flagship Parco Shibuya and is forecasting a 28% rise in revenue for 2016-2021.
5. Hana Financial: Hand It to Hana
Fundamental trends at Hana Financial (086790 KS) are benign and stand out within South Korea’s improving and deep value banking universe. Key metrics/signal at 12M18 positive fundamental momentum and value-quality trends embodied in a high PH Score™.
Hana is an important constituent of South Korea’s Banking Sector, holding approximately 13% of the system total loans, 15% of deposits and about 40% of the nation’s trade finance due to the bank’s entrenched foreign-currency clearing system. This valuable franchise is backed by strengthening capitalisation, improving asset quality after a difficult period for banks grappling with corporate exposures, and discrete gains on Efficiency and Profitability post sizeable merger and integration costs.
Corporate governance remains an issue to monitor after the nepotism scandal of recent years and was covered by Douglas Kim last year.
Having said that, Hana is a slightly higher risk than peers with a HY profile given its default rating.
Shares of Hana are attractively priced, trading on earnings and dividend yields of 19% and 3.8%, respectively, a dividend-adjusted PEG factor of 2x, a P/B of 0.47x, and a franchise value of 5% with the tailwinds of a quintile 1 PH Score™. In line with regulatory change regarding higher DPRs, Hana will raise its dividend payout ratio to 25.5% in 2019 from 22.5% in 2018.
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