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Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 9, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatility
  • Limited contagion to broader market, some stocks even up
  • Potential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continues

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.
  • Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.
  • I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.

3. The Tariff Effect: Economic Uncertainty Unpacked | The New Barbarians #006

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Equities opened down, with futures showing a decline across various markets
  • January saw significant gains in gold and Bitcoin, outperforming equities
  • European stocks surged 8.2% in a month, surprising many investors and challenging traditional market outlooks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs on oil and China
  • Tariffs are paid by US consumers at the point of entry, not fully equating to a 25% price increase
  • Uncertainty about impact of tariffs on prices of goods like maple syrup and avocados

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


5. Can the Stock Market Vigilantes Save the Bull?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • The current environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips”.
  • The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices.
  • On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the Trump Put in the event of a market downdraft. 

6. China-U.S. Trade War Next To Talks?

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

  • Negotiating will likely start in spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new objectives to boost U.S. exports and penalties
  • China will likely be quick to make concessions on needed agricultural imports and illegal Fentanyl from China, but slow to concede on the idea of penalties. 
  • It will be a volatile road to an eventual deal in late H1 or early H2.    

7. A Long-Term Sell Signal?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • Breadth indicators are flashing early cautionary signals for U.S. equities, but these signals can often be early in calling a major market top.
  • A review of other indicators on different investing dimensions are either benign or cautious.
  • We interpret this as the warning of a possible major market top in Q1 or Q2. Investors should monitor risk appetite indicators for tactical signs to turn cautious.

8. The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

  • Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.
  • This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.
  • Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.

9. Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollar
  • Deepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity markets
  • Despite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility ahead

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


10. The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Guidance, Indonesia’s Pragmatism, and Thai Banks

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research


Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 2, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. How Oaktree’s Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Howard Marks correctly called the dot com bubble in the early 2000s
  • The 1990s were a placid period for credit investors but a hot time for equity investors
  • Being too far ahead of your time in predicting market trends can be painful and indistinguishable from being wrong

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Steno Signals #182 – Cutting Through the Trump Noise: A Massive Uniform Move Is Happening

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
  • We are now at the final innings of the inauguration week, and oh boy did it surprise and entertain right about everyone (including me).
  • From full-blown tariffs from the get-go being the base case, a Trump meme coin being launched into the week and a government sponsored Bitcoin reserve (or at least a clear reference to the crypto space during his first week) to barely any mentioning of crypto, no immediate tariffs on China and very accommodative policies on the fiscal side, which makes the 3% deficit target proposed by Scott Bessent look unrealistic at best.

3. Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World

By Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez, Macro Hive

  • Jay Peloski, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked analyst at Morgan Stanley, discusses the tripolar framework of regional integration and competition between Europe, Asia, and the Americas
  • Europe faces challenges with common taxation and revenue creation, Asia is increasingly integrated around China, and the Americas have not fully leveraged North America integration and engagement with South America
  • Regional competition is seen in key areas such as AI, climate, and defense, with each region vying for economic influence and competitive advantage amid global shifts and challenges

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. Generative AI, LLMs, & the Evolution of Product Teams w/ Dr. Thársis Souza | The New Barbarians #005

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Mark has 15 years of experience delivering new technology products in a variety of companies and holds a PhD in Computer Science from UCL University of London
  • He is the author of the book Taming LLMs and the creator of Podcastify AI
  • Mark recapped recent events in the markets, discussed taming LLMs and creating robotic podcasts, and highlighted the success of Bitcoin ETFs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


5. The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

  • Let’s start with DeepSeek.
  • The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.
  • With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.

6. Overview #14 – The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
  • The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
  • India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption 

7. EM Fixed Income Focus: What we know (or don’t) after Week 1

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • EM markets reacting to executive orders and remarks from President Trump, particularly focused on tariffs
  • EM currencies have shown some strength due to lack of tariff implementation so far
  • Market relief since the inauguration, but uncertainty remains around tariff policy and other domestic issues

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


8. Mexico faces a deficit – and Donald Trump

By Behind the Money, Behind the Money

  • President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October, inheriting a delicate economic situation from her popular predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
  • Many lower income people in Mexico are benefiting from higher wages and government social programs, but others, particularly middle and higher income earners, feel stagnant economic growth and uncertainty due to US tariff threats.
  • The relationship between Mexico and the US, along with Sheinbaum’s plans and the ability to attract outside investment, will be key factors in Mexico’s economic growth under her leadership.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


9. Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Inflation, particularly in housing costs, has been a big theme in recent American life.
  • Despite the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation, rent price growth has been moderating.
  • Multifamily housing developers are feeling the strain of higher interest rates and a lack of supply due to decreased activity in the market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


10. The Shift Of Supply Chains From China To Southeast Asia

By ASEAN Exchanges, ASEAN Exchanges

  • China’s rise as a global manufacturing hub was fueled by WTO accession in 2001, supported by export-friendly policies, low-cost labor, and rapid infrastructure development.
  • A 1994 currency devaluation and a shift to value-added goods boosted productivity as labor costs increased.
  • Since the mid-2010s, rising costs and geopolitical factors have driven supply chains to Southeast Asia.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jan 26, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Introducing: Trumponomics

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Donald Trump’s economic policies are changing the way we think about the US economy and shaping the global economy
  • The Trumponomics podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, discusses Trump’s economic agenda and its implications
  • Trump’s policies may be inflationary and there are concerns about what will happen next without any guardrails in place

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Trump’s Tariffs and China: THE STATE OF PLAY

By David Mudd

  • Trump has already entered negotiations with President Xi which may result in a temporary refrain from imposing tariffs.
  • Trump has indicated that TikTok will now be part of a broader deal with China which he outlined as a potential 50/50 joint venture with China. 
  • China has more leverage in trade negotiations with the US than it had during Trump’s first term.

3. Rebuilding The US Physical Economy

By The Bid, The Bid

  • The US infrastructure is in need of billions of dollars in investments to bring it up to speed, highlighted by the $1.1 trillion Infrastructure Investment Economy and Jobs act.
  • There is a focus on reshoring and revitalizing the US economy through infrastructure investments, with private companies playing a significant role in funding major projects.
  • Demographic trends, such as the rise of the millennial generation, are driving demand for housing and impacting the housing market, with lower interest rates potentially helping to alleviate some of the pressures.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • We are starting a new series of insights called “Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly.”
  • The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.
  • The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.

5. Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
  • It’s been an incredibly eventful weekend in Trump-land, and those who expected him to save all the fireworks for the inauguration speech have already been left behind.
  • To recap, Trump has either officially or via leaks/sources hinted at the following:The launch of the official meme-Trump-coin, which has gone absolutely through the roof, taking SOL to new highs alongside it.

6. Trump 2025 Market = Reagan 1981?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • History doesn’t repeat itself but rhymes. The current market pattern is eerily similar to the 1980–1981 period when Ronald Reagan first won when the market made an intermediate-term top. 
  • Reagan entered the White House amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm but the stock market ran into technical and economic headwinds.
  • In 1980, the market faced the challenge of a highly hawkish Federal Reserve. In 2025, the market faces the challenge of elevated valuation and expectations.

7. Details of the Major Changes in Delisting Rules in Korea

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 21 January, the FSC announced the full details of the major changes in the delisting rules in Korea, which should help to reduce the “Korea Discount.”
  • This is one of the biggest ever changes to delisting rules in Korea in the past 30 years.
  • These changes will be especially important among investors that are interested in small caps in Korea. 

8. Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.
  • They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.
  • Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


9. Quarterly Market Recap: Q4 2024 – [Making Markets, EP.53]

By Web3 Breakdowns, Web3 Breakdowns

  • 2024 was a great year for risk assets, with the S&P up 23% and Bitcoin up 150%
  • The year started with concerns about a recession and aggressive Fed rate cuts, but ended with market consensus aligning and a strong performance
  • The narrative heading into 2025 includes concerns about Trump’s impact on deregulation and tariffs, as well as potential inflation from immigration policies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


10. Reasons To Underweight China

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the  economy Is yet to bottom.
  • Loss making companies were up 11% YoY in the first 11 months  of 2024 and accounted for 25% of manufacturing. 
  • Operating revenues have held-up, but operating costs are rising fast as are inventories and liabilities. Corporate debt to GDP had already hit 295% in 3Q24.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jan 19, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025

By The Bid, The Bid

  • Equity markets have performed well in the past two years, with 2024 being another strong year
  • Looking ahead to 2025, we explore the impact of inflation, interest rates, and artificial intelligence on the market
  • BlackRock’s global CIO discusses the rarity of three years of 20%+ returns, opportunities in AI, and challenges facing investors in the new year.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Term premium is a key concept in measuring bond yields and interest rates
  • The global economy is experiencing fiscal pressures and political noise, impacting bond markets
  • Central bank asset purchases and sell-offs, along with regulatory reforms, are influencing the bond market and interest rates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


3. China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.
  • This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.
  • Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.

4. President Yoon’s Approval Ratings Surges to 47%, Gets Arrested, and Declares Rampant Election Fraud

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • It has been another wild day in South Korea as Yoon Suk-Yeol became the first sitting South Korean President to be arrested. 
  • A recent local poll released on 14 January showed that President Yoon’s approval rating surged to 46.6%.
  • President Yoon released a letter to the Korean people. The heart of the letter is about the rampant election fraud in Korea and the desperate need to restore election integrity.

5. Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.
  • Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.
  • This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.

6. Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0

By Priyanka Kishore, Asia Decoded

  • We identify five key themes that will shape Asia’s economic outlook this year. The first theme is Trump 2.0, global tariffs and supply chain diversification.
  • Trump 2.0 will be a drag on Asia’s growth, even with targeted tariffs. Outside of China, tariff risks are highest for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
  • Lower inflation will allow central banks to shift their focus to growth and trigger a deeper rate cut cycle, provided FX weakness is within reasonable limits.

7. Headwinds, Tailwinds in 2025

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • This year overweight US dollar, underweight European, Malaysian, Korean and Indonesian sovereign bonds. In 2024 68.9% of  our  43 investment recommendation and forecasts made money.
  • The key headwinds are dollar strength , Trump’s trade war, the slower monetary policy easing, China, Europe and US valuations.
  • Tailwinds include, the strength of the  US economy, Trump’s pro-business domestic policy agenda, tame energy prices,  India, conflict resolutions and a lighter global election cycle.

8. The Launch of the KRX TMI (Total Market Index) – Korea’s TOPIX Index

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Korea Exchange disclosed the new KRX TMI (Total Market Index) on 13 January. This is a market index that consists of eligible stocks in the entire KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets.
  • The KRX TMI index is similar to Japan’s TOPIX index. The KRX TMI index is calculated by adopting a free-float market capitalization weighting method.
  • We provide a list of 20 companies in KOSDAQ that could benefit from the launch of the KRX TMI index. 

9. 69.8% Of Our 2024 Calls Made Money

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • We are optimistic about the outlook for global growth and markets in 2025, despite anticipating turbulence driven by Trump’s policies. Stay overweight US markets, US dollar and Bitcoin. Underweight China. 
  • Our differentiated business cycle framework investing worked. Of the 43 calls made, on global markets and eleven countries/regions,  69.8% were accurate+ in 2024.
  • We predicted  the US soft landing , Trump’s re-election, a strong dollar, the US & bitcoin rallies, the European slowdown and TAIX outperformance.

10. Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

By Nitin Mangal, Trudence Capital Advisors

  • The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
  • The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
  • Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jan 12, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Global Rates: European rates market update

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • Market conditions have shifted with increased rates against reduced liquidity, leading to recent sell-offs.
  • Despite market noise and uncertainty, the outlook remains constructive on intra-EMU spreads and Euro Area government bond supply for 2025.
  • The UK market has seen significant sell-offs in 10-year gilt yields, influenced by fiscal policies and US market dynamics, with expectations of further easing by the Bank of England.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Steno Signals #179: A handful of trades for 2025

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro markets.
  • In full transparency, we’ve been a few weeks early on our bet for lower bond yields, which slightly wrongfooted our risk asset view heading into Christmas—after being on a remarkable roll for several months.
  • We remain puzzled by the resilience of bond yields (and the USD) despite softer economic surprises and flattening inflation expectations.

3. The Week Ahead – Happy New Year?

By Nomura – The Week Ahead, Nomura – The Week Ahead

  • Central banks in the US, Europe, and Asia have made policy rate announcements, with the Fed in the US easing rates and the ECB expected to continue cutting rates.
  • The US economy is expected to see slowing growth momentum in the coming year, with concerns about policy risks from the incoming Trump administration.
  • In Asia, Japan is forecasted to experience above potential growth with rate hikes, while China continues to struggle with low inflation and credit growth.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. Trump’s Messy Governing Challenges

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • We reiterate our belief that in the absence of a recession the S&P 500 should register low single-digit gains for 2025.
  • However, the emergence of policy implementation risk by the incoming Trump Administration makes us believe the market will experience several volatility shocks during the year.
  • Be prepared for a choppy but mildly positive year for stock prices in 2025.

5. Another Way to Skin a Cat?

By Thomas Lam

  • Although data interpolation has a long history, the various linear and nonlinear techniques have pros and cons         
  • I introduce a hybrid technique to interpolate monthly US inflation-adjusted GDP going back to 1947
  • My monthly GDP nowcast through November seems consistent with some growth moderation on a three-month and six-month basis   

6. CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy – Parting Clouds

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research

  • The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
  • GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
  • Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.

7. CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Let the Quest Begin

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research

  • We look at the major themes and challenges for listed tech stocks in Southeast Asia including Sea Ltd, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, Grab Holdings, Global Digital Niaga (BELI), and Bukalapak.
  • Profitability remains the key quest all in 2025, with only Sea Ltd achieving this in a true and sustainable manner, with Grab moving closer ahead of GoTo, BELI, and BUKA. 
  • Increasing take rates through seizing more of the value chain in logistics and advertising is another trend, with Fintech a core focus in shifting the needle on profitability and cross-selling

8. Korea Value Up Index: Winners and Losers in 2025 YTD

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • In this insight, we discuss the details of the share price performances of the Korea Value Up Index (especially among the index constituents) this year.
  • It appears that many traders are buying beaten up, higher beta stocks in Korea that were excessively pushed to much lower levels last year. 
  • Among the top 20 best performing stocks in the Korea Value Up Index this year, 15 of them (75% of the top 20 stocks) are listed on KOSDAQ. 

9. 5 Major Potential Policy Changes in the Korean Stock Market Pushed by the FSC in 2025

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 8 January, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced 5 major potential policy changes in the Korean stocks market which could get implemented in 2025.
  • The mandatory lock-up periods for the institutional investors could result in the institutional investors that are active in Korean IPOs to reassess their trading strategies on newly offered issues. 
  • Choi Sang-Mok was the most important government official spearheading the numerous financial reforms in Korea. Now that he is the acting President, he is likely to accelerate these financial reforms. 

10. 2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

By Rikki Malik

  • Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets
  • Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity
  • China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jan 5, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop


1. The 10 Most Interesting Things We Learned on Odd Lots in 2024

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Private credit is transforming the world of debt, creating concerns for investors and the broader economy
  • Chicken wing prices are volatile due to the poultry industry focusing on breast meat demand, making wings a fall-off product
  • Companies like Elf Bar evade FDA regulation by flooding the market with products and rebranding under different names

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (December 2024)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio returned 5.23% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 5.92%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10.36% to 14.38% since its inception on 10/01/24.
  • About 80% of the portfolio’s excess returns have been from alpha generation.  The portfolio has no exposure to Real Estate, Healthcare, Materials, or Energy at this time.
  • At month end, we sold ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C (6060 HK) , China Longyuan Power (916 HK) , CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK), and Weibo (9898 HK) .

3. 2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Hello everyone—we hope you enjoyed the holiday season and had a wonderful Christmas.
  • The festive season has been relatively quiet macro-wise, with only a few comments from the PBoC and BoJ.
  • However, markets seem unwilling to move until there is news on the USD front, which has been driving almost all assets since December.

4. Steno Signals #178 – Brace yourselves, liquidity is coming!

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy New Year, friends, and welcome back to the Steno Signals editorials! My apologies for the silence over the past few days—I celebrated New Year’s Eve (and my 35th birthday) battling a nasty pneumonia, which has taken some time to recover from.
  • Thankfully, I am finally better and wanted to share my 2025 thoughts on liquidity with you, as I find myself disagreeing quite a bit with the current semi-bearish consensus.
  • We experienced an almost equally “tight” year-end as the tight quarter-end back in September.

5. Surging Share Buybacks in Korea in 2024

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Capitalizing on the lower share prices combined with the government’s pressure for Corporate Value up improvements, the share buybacks surged in Korea in 2024.
  • As of 27 December 2024, the total treasury shares planned acquisition amount by Korean companies increased by 215% YoY to 11.83 trillion won in 2024.
  • There have been some mixed share price performances among the companies announcing meaningful share buyback/cancellation announcements this year.

6. Contrarian Bargains Among Santa’s Discards

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • The stock market is likely to advance during the Santa Claus rally window, which began on December 24 and ends January 3.
  • But the rally is attributed to an oversold bounce and marked by narrow leadership. Either the rebound fizzles in January or broadens into lagging issues.
  • We identified selected contrarian value opportunities for bulls among Santa’s discards for potential outperformance into January and beyond.

7. Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Stock Positioning Update

By Steven Holden, Copley Fund Research

  • Top holdings remain unchanged: TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Tencent are almost universally owned. TSMC hits record weights but active funds sell into strength as benchmark weights surpass 10%
  • Hon Hai, Hyundai Motor, and Singtel lead recoveries from prolonged declines. Baidu Inc. and Kweichow Moutai see sharp ownership drops.
  • Momentum leaders include Accton Technology, CATL, and KE Holdings. By contrast, Axis Bank, PDD, and Reliance face stalling ownership.

8. Estimating Downside Risk

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • The U.S. equity is highly vulnerable because of overvaluation and excessive growth expectations, but valuation is not very predictive of returns over a one-year time horizon.
  • We estimate downside risk on the S&P 500 in the 20–30% range in the event of a major bear market.
  • Despite our concerns, we see no immediate bearish triggers for investors to adopt defensive positioning in their portfolios.

9. Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Country Positioning Update

By Steven Holden, Copley Fund Research

  • China dominates allocations, India and Taiwan are equal 2nd, while South Korea lags a further 7% behind after seeing a big drop in exposure.
  • Indonesia leads the ASEAN region, emerging as the top overweight country as a record 79.8% of funds are ahead of the benchmark.
  • India sees 62% underweight the benchmark. Vietnam hits new highs in average fund weight (0.97%) and fund participation (34%).

10. End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 57 Companies in Korea in January 2025

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 57 stocks in Korea in January 2025, among which four are in KOSPI and 53 are in KOSDAQ. 
  • The ban on short selling of Korean stocks which is still in place is likely to be lifted on 31 March 2025.
  • Some of the companies mentioned in this insight which highlights the end of the major lockup periods could help to narrow down the list of candidates for potential shorting. 

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Dec 29, 2024

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. EM Fixed Income: ‘Tis the Season for Volatility

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • The discussion focused on the importance of politics over economics for emerging markets in 2025, with a specific emphasis on fiscal trajectories.
  • Lessons learned include the need to expand imagination of possible scenarios, the impact of specific country situations on returns, and the caution against following consensus trades.
  • Market outlook for early 2025 is expected to be choppy and driven by policy announcements, with a key event being the US Inauguration Day on January 20th leading to potential market adjustments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Explains the ‘Hawkish Cut’

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, unveiling new year expectations for inflation and economic growth.
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly discusses the current state of the labor market, the impact of AI on productivity, and the importance of data and evidence in making policy decisions.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


3. Infrastructure mini-series Ep 2: The Low-Carbon Transition: A $100 Trillion Infrastructure Opport…

By The Bid, The Bid

  • Global transition to low carbon economy discussed in the second episode of the Infrastructure miniseries
  • Key areas of investment include electrification, renewable power plants, electric vehicle charging stations, and clean fuels
  • Importance of public and private investment in infrastructure to enable energy transition and decarbonization, with a focus on long-term growth opportunities like data centers and mining infrastructure

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. NPS: Portfolio Rebalance Could Lead to Buying At Least 25 Trillion Won in Korean Stocks in 2025

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • In 2025, the NPS could purchase significant amounts of Korean stocks (at least 25 trillion won) which could act as support in the domestic stock market. 
  • At the end of September 2024, NPS’s domestic stock portfolio was 12.7% of its total assets, a 2.2% lower than NPS’s domestic stocks target at the end of 2025 (14.9%).
  • The top five net purchases by the NPS and local pension funds of Korean stocks in the past one month include Samsung Electronics, Kakao, SK Innovation, Hyundai Motor, and SEMCO.

5. Global Monetary Easing Cycle Becomes More Idiosyncratic

By Said Desaque, DeSaque Macro Research

  • The Swiss and Canadian central banks cut their respective policy rates by 50 basis points. The former faces currency appreciation and deflationary risks. Canada faces higher unemployment and deteriorating growth.
  • The European Central Bank is taking a gradual policy easing path in 2025. Policy outlooks for the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are more data dependent.
  • The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points as expected, but fewer reductions are now expected in 2025 due to a more robust economic outlook compared to September.

6. Steno Signals #177 – Another ill-timed flip-flop from Jay Powell?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday from me! This will be the last update before the festive season, and I hope you will have a relaxed and enjoyable time with your loved ones.
  • It has been a big year for me personally with the launch of Asgard-Steno Global Macro.
  • Despite Powell pulling the rug from under the Christmas rally, we are off to a decent start and expect to deliver strong returns in choppy markets in 2025, where the macro direction will be challenged by several factors.

7. The Darker Side of the Hindenburg Omen

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • Current market conditions are characterized by a strong S&P 500 that’s near its all-time high and weak breadth. 
  • The closest template to these circumstances is August 1972, which is just before the final Nifty Fifty top.
  • As the market undergoes its inevitable bounce due to oversold conditions, investors should monitor technical conditions for negative divergences, which could be the signal for a long-term cyclical top.

8. Equity Return Expectations Under An Alien Invasion

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • We are subscribers to Occam’s Razor, or the simplest explanation is the most satisfactory, and recent UFOs sightings are of terrestrial origin.
  • It’s nevertheless a worthwhile exercise to consider asset return expectations under the scenario of an extra-terrestrial alien invasion.
  • Our study of an alien invasion opens the door to discussing return studies. Standard assumptions about returns to bonds and equity risk premiums are useful only up to a point.

9. Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

  • Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.
  • These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.
  • While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

10. Three Presidents in One Month in South Korea – What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • The acting South Korean President Han Duck-Soo was impeached by the South Korea’s Parliament on 27 December. Choi Sang-Mok (finance minister) is now the new, acting President of South Korea.
  • There could be multiple impeachments of acting Presidents in the next several weeks which would be unprecedented and raise further concerns about the lack of political stability in South Korea. 
  • Amid all this political uncertainty, Yoon Suk-Yeol’s approval rating has been improving sharply to more than 30%.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Dec 22, 2024

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. 2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into Hong Kong – Part 1

By Rikki Malik

  • Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets.  
  • Short to mid-term concerns on the Indian market warrant this strategic change
  • Slowing revenue growth and less government spending leading to decelerating profits which is not yet reflected in market multiples

2. The Drill – The China Meltdown Is Ruining the Upbeat Trends in Manufacturing

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Tuesday, and welcome back to our weekly commodity editorial, where we keep you updated each and every week on what’s going on in the world of commodities, energy, and the like!
  • It’s hard to talk about commodities without talking about China these days, as we have seen a complete reversal in the Chinese macro scene after we scouted last week for the best commodity plays should the Chinese stimulus come through.
  • After all, they used the same wording as they did back in 2008, and it was wise of markets to “cry wolf,” as China would need to publish actual stimulus plans and their size before markets chased the story.

3. A Hindenburg Omen in an Oversold Market

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • What happens when an ominously sounding Hindenburg Omen occurs when the market is oversold? The notoriously unreliable Omen is said to have called “ten of the last three market corrections”.
  • The market’s reaction to the FOMC decision added to the risk-off market tone. The Fed marked down the number of 2025 quarter-point rate cuts from four to two.
  • Four of the five components of our Bottom Spotting Model have flashed buy signals. Two or more simultaneous buy signals have been good long entry points for traders.

4. Steno Signals #176 – Will 2025 be 2007 or 2021 all over again?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Welcome to my weekly editorial, where I assess the big-picture macro landscape, explore potential risks, and identify the next narrative for traders.
  • Last week, I kept getting pings, rings, and dings from traders eager to discuss whether inflation is poised to make a comeback following the fourth consecutive hot inflation report in the U.S. Admittedly, we’re trending around 3.5% inflation on an annualized basis, which doesn’t look great amidst a cutting cycle.
  • Consequently, the market has started repricing the inflation outlook, with the near-term (2-year) outlook once again outpacing the 10-year inflation outlook in inflation swaps.

5. Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update – this week with a strong focus on the moves we are seeing in Fixed Income and forward-pricing at the moment and the subsequent positioning as we head into 2025.
  • Markets continue to lean bearish on the Eurozone while upbeat on the US in equity terms, and likely for good reasons as macro data hasn’t given any good arguments as to why one should be upbeat on the Eurozone, and the signs we are getting on European growth in our nowcasts have yet to show up in actual releases – for now, it’s mainly the less China sensitive countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece that are performing macro-wise while Germany, France and Italy suffer.
  • GDP growth is surprisingly strong in the first 3 whilst very weak in the latter 3, and given the latter’s weighting in European equity indices, it makes sense why we are seeing hedge funds being long consumer staples, health care and other defensives while scaling down bets on cyclical equities.

6. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 Dec 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker, Aletheia Capital

  • US and China treasury yields highlight inflation control challenges, with the Fed’s rate cut fueling market uncertainty.
  • Asia’s mixed monetary decisions saw Japan hold rates, while the Philippines’ cuts worsened currency pressures.
  • China’s retail sales remain resilient despite lower growth expectations, contrasting with declining real sales in the US.

7. Speadbites: Food for Credit Market Thought as We Head Into the Holidays

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • Global credit ecosystem remains stable, similar to 2024 outlook
  • Tight spreads and low all-in yields support demand in credit markets
  • Concerns about non-cash accrual companies in private credit portfolios and potential impact on risk distribution from public to private markets, but overall sentiment remains positive for credit markets.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


8. T.R.U.M.P | Dec 19, 2024

By Mark Tinker, Market Thinker

  • According to Webster the word of the year is Polarization.
  • Oxford have Brain Rot and Cambridge have Manifest. Collins have Brat, which was apparently ‘made famous by a Chari XCX album’ (me neither).
  • Personally, just as Cozzy Livs (cost of living) was my favourite in 2023, this year really deserves to be ‘Word Salad’, although without Kamala it is unlikely to reappear anywhere near as much.

9. Thailand: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in Dec-24

By Heteronomics AI, Heteronomics

  • The Bank of Thailand unanimously maintained the policy rate at 2.25%, aligning with consensus expectations, citing alignment with economic potential and inflation within target expectations.
  • Economic growth projections for 2024–2025 remain steady, but uneven sectoral recovery, particularly in manufacturing and SMEs, presents ongoing risks to sustainable recovery.
  • Global economic uncertainties, credit growth trends, and the efficacy of government debt-relief programmes in supporting domestic demand and financial stability will influence future policy decisions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

10. Monday Macro: Bumper Crystal Ball Time, Plus the US Equity Bulls Are Still Rampaging

By Adventurous Investor, The Adventurous Investor

  • Over the last week, the FTSE ALL World equities index stalled slightly, losing 0.8% in value, with the FTSE ALL Share index losing a tad more, down a smidgeon under 1%.
  • Tech stocks again outperformed, sending the Nasdaq 1.5% higher and taking the index to over 20,000 for the first time ever.
  • The S&P 500 edged 0.5% lower, and the Russell 2000 ended the week 2% down. The Magnificent 7 hit new highs as the market-broadening trend evaporated.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Dec 15, 2024

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Strategic Outlook 2025: Winter Is Coming, Can Asia Keep Itself Warm?

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

  • With the US and China distracted from stabilizing the world geopolitical order, flare-ups and stresses will occur more frequently as various actors feel emboldened to undertake risky gambits. 
  • The world, including emerging Asia, will have to contend with “much higher for much longer” geopolitical risk and its aftereffects on global trade, investments, and financial markets. 
  • But most economies in the region retain agency to adapt to a more hostile environment by bolstering internal resilience and forming new coalitions of the willing to pursue shared objectives. 

2. Investing During an Era of American Exceptionalism

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • This year was one of American exceptionalism and asset return domination, led by the leadership of the Magnificent Seven.
  • . We believe Magnificent Seven leadership is likely to fade in 2025.
  • We expect that 2025 will be a year of transition from growth to value, large caps to small caps and paper to hard assets.

3. Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.
  • These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.
  • While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

4. The US Dollar and the Only Chart that Matters!

By David Mudd

  • The US Net International Investment Position (NIIP) as a debtor country has ballooned since the GFC, attracting global demand for US assets, which feeds demand for the dollar.
  • Historically high dollar demand has allowed the US to enjoy the benefits of low interest rates and created a historic bull market in US equities.
  • As the US continues to use its currency for geopolitical purposes, countries have begun to question dollar hegemony.  The US fights against any country that tries to weaken the dollar

5. Steno Signals #175 – 4 asymmetrical cases for Santa Powell

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything tradable in macro! I was confident heading into last week that the U.S. data releases would bring bond yields lower, and both ISM numbers and NFP aligned with our views.
  • The NFP report was much weaker than it appeared, with the median duration of unemployment ticking up—a clear symptom of a low-hiring, low-firing labor market with little momentum for those who lost jobs in recent quarters to find new opportunities.
  • Monthly job creation of around 225k is obviously decent, but this figure is skewed by employees returning from strikes and a lack of substantial positive revisions to the abysmal job creation in October.

6. The LLM Quant Revolution: From ChatGPT to Wall Street

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • A Comprehensive Guide to Building AI-Powered Investment Systems: The application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in quantitative finance, focusing on the current state of LLM technology in financial applications 
  • I also cover: 1. Comparative analysis of leading models                2. Implementation frameworks for production systems 3. Risk management and quality control considerations 
  • Key Findings: 1. Multi-model approaches outperform single-model solutions 2. Production implementation requires robust quality controls 3. Model selection should be task-specific within the investment process 

7. Bitcoin 100K: Buy or Fade the Animal Spirits?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • Now that Bitcoin has exceeded the psychologically important 100,000 mark, it is becoming evident that the FOMO risk-on stampede is in full force.
  • Our review of market internals leads us to conclude that the risk-on FOMO stampede that’s driving the animal spirits is on the verge of becoming exhausted.
  • Our base case calls for a brief period of consolidation or shallow weakness, followed by a rally into year-end.

8. Positioning Watch – Is the Santa Rally at risk of being canceled? Not yet..

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.
  • I’ve been puzzled over the past weeks of just how much risk assets have been denying the underlying macro trends, and it very much mimics the pattern we saw in Q4 2023.
  • Markets are not really responding to macro unless there is a major surprise to either side of the economic consensus as this is the only scenario which can change the expected rate path of the Fed.

9. Geopolitical Flash Update: See you later Scholz!

By Anne Sandager, Steno Research

  • On Dec. 4, Michel Barnier became only the second Prime Minister in French history to be ousted by a no-confidence vote.

  • Precisely one week later, the other major EU economy, Germany, submitted a motion of no-confidence of its own to be held on Dec. 16. What the heck is going on in Europe?!

  • The political chaos in France and Germany has the same root cause: a sluggish economy and insurmountable debt levels.


10. Globalisation: Same, Same but Different

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Contrary to popular belief, the upward trend in global US$ exports, which has been in place since 1948 remains intact. World trade openness too is higher today than pre-GFC.  
  • US consumers are the richest. However Asian affordability is growing quickly . The region’s share of the global imports is already on par with Europe’s.   
  • Globalisation is not reversing but evolving. Regional trade is driving world exports while world manufacturing production chains are transitioning from horizontal to vertical integrated.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Dec 8, 2024

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop


1. South Korean Parliament Lifts Martial Law Declared by the President Yoon

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Late Tuesday on 3 December, South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declared a martial law. Several hours afterwards, the South Korean Parliament voted to lift President Yoon’s martial law order.
  • By drawing so much attention to the “dangers of the communist party from within Korea and outside,” President Yoon is trying to align himself closer to President Trump. 
  • In the near term, the impact on the Korean stock market of the declaration and lifting of martial law is likely to be negative.

2. Potential Impeachment of President Yoon Suk-Yeol and Impact on the Korean Financial Markets

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • In this insight, we discuss the potential impeachment of the South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol and the implications on the Korean financial markets.
  • We would put a 50-60% probability that there is more than 200 votes to impeach the South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol right now by the members of the Parliament.
  • We would attach about 30-40% probability that at least six justices of the Constitutional Court vote in favor of impeaching President Yoon. 

3. The Week Ahead – Give Thanks For

By Nomura – The Week Ahead, Nomura – The Week Ahead

  • Trump announced potential tariff policies on social media targeting Canada and Mexico, leading to a weakening in both currencies.
  • Trump appointed key members to his economic team, setting the tone for his administration’s policies.
  • Markets are anticipating the Fed meeting in December, with expectations of a dovish hold and strong labor market reports.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. Positioning Watch – Markets have NOT been Ready for Growth to Weaken in the US

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Thursday, and welcome to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you just before the crucial NFP report tomorrow.
  • From what we see across markets, it looks like participants are starting to take risk off the table in equity space ahead of the report.
  • Markets have struggled this week to settle on a clear narrative for USD assets, especially USD rates.

5. Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • In Germany, “debt hawks” are slowly but surely waking up to the reality of their manufacturing industry being brought to its knees.
  • In Angela Merkel’s recent book, she pleads for a softer stance on the debt brake, and the political landscape in Germany seems to be softening on the “Schwarze Null” in general, with also the Buba member Nagel now advocating for a softer stance.
  • The future government would need a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag and Bundesrat to change the debt brake.

6. What Is the Real Purpose of President Yoon’s Martial Law – To Reveal Election Fraud?

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • One of the most important questions about the martial law three days ago is why did President Yoon send special forces (297) to the National Election Commission?
  • President Yoon may have ordered troops to be deployed to the NEC to get to the bottom of the election fraud since all the important election servers are stored there.
  • It is EXTREMELY DIFFICULT to prove an election fraud. Even if President Yoon declares a war on election frauds, he must have extraordinary pieces of data to back this up.

7. Steno Signals #128- I thought Trump and tariffs were supposed to lead to a bond riot?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, friends, and welcome to my straight-to-the-point editorial on everything macro!Just as everyone had concluded that Trump and his (alleged) trade wars would be bond-unfriendly, the bond market has started performing much better—exactly as we suggested would happen following the election results.
  • The first major difference compared to 2016, when bonds rioted after Trump’s victory, is that Trump was the clear base case this time around.
  • The second major difference is that Trump’s policy mix is not inflationary this time—in fact, it’s quite the opposite.

8. The Week at a Glance: Manufacturing Rebound, Fed Liquidity Signals & Oil’s Fragile Balance

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Monday!Each week, we collect the most important events in the week ahead and provide you with our direction going into them.
  • Enjoy!Monday – ISM ManufacturingThe ISM Manufacturing data is due this afternoon, with consensus expecting a rebound from last month’s report, forecasting a figure of 47.6. After reviewing our model library, we see substantial risk/reward in betting on an upward surprise in manufacturing data.
  • For instance, our regional PMI model—which uses regional manufacturing prints as inputs—indicates a material increase in the manufacturing PMI today.

9. Geopolitical Flash Update – Bye Bye Barnier

By Anne Sandager, Steno Research

  • France sovereign debt reached a record €3.228 trillion, amounting to 112% of GDP in June, well above the 60% cap set by EU regulations.
  • France growing debt have slowly been chipping away at investors’ confidence in French bonds.
  • After Macron called a snap election in June resulting in a hung parliament, risk premiums on French 10-year bonds have shot up.

10. Here is What We Told Hedge Funds This Week—and How We’re Trading It!

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.
  • These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.
  • While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.