Category

Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

Mar 23
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Mar 23, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • Updated inflation basket weightings can shift the inflation outlook without any new fundamental shock. The seasonal and trend outlook is unaffected by the 2025 update.
  • Although our forecast is broadly unchanged, this still mitigates the risk that reduced weights on energy and sanitation utilities dampen the surge in April and July forecasts.
  • This outcome further emboldens our confidence in our above-consensus forecast. We also note that the average import intensity is now weighted near historic lows.

2. BoE Dove Beaten Into Submission

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • The BoE unsurprisingly held its policy rate at 4.5% in March, preserving its gradual easing path after resilient recent data. Only one MPC member dissented for a 25bp cut.
  • Catherine Mann did not carry the extra 25bp of easing she supported from February to March. Her hyperactive vote relied on so little spurious evidence it was swiftly falsified.
  • Core members emphasise the lack of a predetermined path, raising the hurdle to a May cut, but this remains the most likely outcome, even if it may require a rapid reversal.

3. EU: Defence Spending

By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

  • The EU is dealing with two crucial deadlines related to defence spending.
  • The Commission is set to present its full loans-for-arms proposal to a divided European Council on 20 March.
  • On 24 March, the ‘old’ Bundestag will step down, making it more difficult to ease Germany’s debt brake.

4. UK: Tight Jobs Market Persists Into 2025

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • Unemployment remained at 4.4% in January amid rapid employment growth. Recent data suggest that the unemployment rate will likely decline over the next few months.
  • Regular wage growth adhered to its 0.4% m-o-m trend. The headline is near 6%, leaving no progress over the past year. Financial sector bonuses weigh temporarily on total pay.
  • Doves can temporarily dismiss this inconvenient resilience as unreliable noise, but the obvious risk is that it’s genuine and monetary stimulus has already become excessive.

5. Unloved Stocks in Asia Ex-Japan

By Steven Holden, Copley Fund Research

  • Bank Of China Ltd, Celltrion Inc and Li Auto top the list as the largest index constituents held by less that 5% of active Asia Ex-Japan funds.
  • Unloved stock numbers increase after China A-share inclusion in 2018/19 and further amplified by post-2020 restrictions on select Chinese military-linked firms.
  • Select funds do own sizeable positions in these stocks.  Are they the ultimate contrarian trades?

6. Asian Equities: The Currency Tailwind – Where Would FII Flows Gravitate?

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

  • The USD is moderating, not just against developed market currencies, but also against Asian currencies. Usually, Asian currency revival is a lead indicator of acceleration of FII flows in Asia. 
  • Our analysis of cumulative FII sales as proportion of market cap shows that Korea and Indonesia are oversold. India is almost there, but not quite. HK/China is still under-owned. 
  • Taiwan and Thailand, despite large FII selling over an extended period, are still not oversold. Both markets face risks from the tariff war and could face more FII selling pressure.

7. EM Fixed Income Focus: See no evil, hear no evil: EM is not yet pricing a lot of growth downside

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • Discussion about concerns regarding a U.S. recession or growth slowdown
  • Analysis of historical mentions of recession in news media compared to current levels
  • Evaluation of EM credit market sensitivity to recessionary risks and market moves so far

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

8. Indonesia’s Middle-Class Squeeze a Long Time Coming

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

  • Recent reports that the Indonesian middle class has shrunk should not have come as a surprise, given long-running sluggishness in household consumption and poverty.  
  • The problem goes beyond the pandemic dislocations: misguided reliance on extractive commodities sectors and a restrictive stance on foreign investments are primary culprits.
  • Further squeezes on the middle class jeopardize Indonesia’s economic and political stability. Unfortunately, the government shows little sign of making the needed pivots.

9. Steno Signals #189 – The Perception Vs. Reality of Inflation: A Growing Divide

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Monday from Copenhagen! We have a six-month stopgap funding deal in place in the U.S. until September, but no new debt ceiling legislation.
  • So, despite a shutdown being avoided, we are not yet talking about a new mountain of debt.
  • This is why I think the late-Friday reaction in bond yields was somewhat overdone.

10. The Drill: China to the commodity rescue?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything Geopolitics and Commodities.
  • Industrial metals (and precious metals) have performed very well this year, and we’ve thankfully been part of (parts of) this ride.
  • With new signs emerging of a stimulus targeting consumption patterns in the economy, Wall Street’s takeaway has been that China has regained significant momentum.
Mar 16
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Mar 16, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. US Lands Some Disinflation In Feb-25

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • The upwards trend in monthly US inflation of the past several months broke in February with a surprisingly steep slowing to 0.2% m-o-m, although airfares drove the downside.
  • Drift in consensus expectations is not yet obviously broken, with this outcome 0.2pp above forecasts from a month ago. A rebound after Easter remains likely.
  • Disinflation is unlikely to dissuade the Fed from holding rates in March. We doubt soft surveys will translate to recessionary conditions, so we still see no more Fed cuts.

2. HEW: Payback In Trade And Pricing

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • Equities are facing difficulties due to unpredictable trade policies and retaliations, which are affecting profit forecasts. Despite this, hard data remains strong, although low airfares are impacting the US CPI. There has been a decrease in optimism about Europe.
  • The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are likely to maintain current interest rates in the coming week as there are no clear signs of a downturn. Two MPC members are expected to dissent for a 25bp cut to avoid acknowledging a previous error.
  • Other upcoming announcements include those from the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Riksbank.

3. The Week Ahead – Tariffs Kick In; Europe Kicks Off With Fiscal Easing

By Nomura – The Week Ahead, Nomura – The Week Ahead

  • German fiscal announcement leads to increase in bond yields and euro rally
  • US implements 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, additional tariffs on China
  • China retaliates with tariffs on US energy products and adding American firms to unreliable entity list

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

4. Asian Equities: Preserving Capital in 2025 – Parallels and Contrasts from 2018

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

  • As the trade war unfolds, more market volatility seems likely. In the 2018 episode China and Korea drove Asian drawdown. But today, China exports far less to America than earlier.
  • The 2025 trade war is more expansive, with larger tariffs being imposed. In 2018, the defensives and non-tradables outperformed. Similar sectors, but not the same markets could do well now.
  • Our Capital Preservation Basket presents eight cheap stocks with domestic revenue exposure and earnings estimate increases over past six months. They are from HK/China (5), Philippines (2) and Korea (1).

5. Volatility, Tariffs, and a Potential Recession: Breaking Down Macro Chaos | The New Barbarians #011

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Market volatility continues, with futures down across the board
  • Atlanta Fed’s GDP nowcast turns negative for the first time since 2022
  • Winners in the market so far this year include gold, European stocks, and bonds

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

6. Investors Run and Hide

By Mark Connors, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Investors are scrambling for safety as tariffs reshape the global financial order.
  • Capital is flowing into short-term Treasuries at an increasing pace.
  • Gold has been a steady haven, but will bitcoin also emerge as a safe haven.

7. ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

By David Mudd

  • The US has entered the first leg of its bear market.  Administration officials have taken a “no pain, no gain” stance, with policy priorities taking precedence over market moves.
  • Sequencing problems start as tariffs and DOGE policies are enacted first, which negatively affect inflation and economic growth.  Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a recession within a year.
  • Asian markets will be pulled down as part of the US risk-off trade.  Regarding relative performance, HK/China will benefit from the underweight exposure of foreign funds and better valuations.

8. 2025 Global Investment Recommendations

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • From a business cycle perspective, Trading Post is overweight global equities, and underweight sovereign bonds. Within global equities the bias is towards growth and momentum stocks.
  • In favour are industrials, energy, European & US defence, tech hardware companies and consumer discretionary in the second half of the year, along with export cyclicals.
  • Expect the Fed to cut interest rates once this year and the ECB by 125bp in total and for the BoJ to raise by 75bp. 

9. The Sky Is Falling!?

By Thomas Lam

  • The recent decline in US equities only smells like a recession, might not taste like one yet
  • Broader and timelier measures of the economy do not seem to be as soggy as the early indications from headline GDP at this time
  • My weekly Recession Odds indicator, which takes into account a range of indicators with diversified coverage, offers another angle on the ongoing recession debate

10. Heavy Metal Trade War

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • Volatility in US trade policy continues a cleaner tightening trend against China in the well-established tech war. Tariffs are a tool, but so are export restrictions.
  • China expanded restrictions on rare earth mineral exports to license critical materials like tungsten. The West lacks friendly suppliers and struggles to develop alternatives.
  • European defence investments may flounder. Japan and Korea may also suffer, so they can indirectly frustrate the US. Aggressive trade policy hits volumes as well as prices.
Mar 09
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Mar 9, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater and author, discusses big numbers and debt cycles in a social and political context
  • Tracy and Joe host a podcast episode with Ray Dalio, known for his insights on finance and the invention of the chicken nugget

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

2. From Gene Hackman to Bitcoin: Signals, Sell-Offs, and Discipline | The New Barbarians #010

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Episode 10 of New Barbarians podcast covers recent events and discusses Gene Hackman’s passing
  • Mark Connors shares insights on investors seeking certainty and compares them to characters in Gene Hackman’s movies
  • Trump’s statements on Truth social and implications for the crypto market are analyzed, drawing parallels to themes of integrity and leadership in Hoosiers.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

3. The US Bear Market: Stage One – DENIAL

By David Mudd

  • After several months of a technical top-consolidation, the US market is entering a bear market.  The piercing of the Magnificent-7 bubble will continue to drive selling pressure in the market.
  • Inflation pressures will tie the Fed’s hands to bail out the market with another Fed Put.  Another market bailout would cost much more than the $5 trillion COVID bailout.
  • The administration’s policy sequencing is pushing inflation expectations higher as the immediate tariff implementation supersedes other anti-inflationary policies, which will take longer to implement.

4. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (February 2025)

By David Mudd

5. 2025 Global Investment Strategy

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Last year 70% of the calls made money. This year we make another 43 investment recommendations, global, US, Europe, Japan and 8 Asian countries. 
  • Our prediction that Bitcoin will become a US reserve asset under Trump is already playing out. 
  • Stock market volatility will persist, with diverging performance and subdued  gains compared with 2024. Our top picks are the US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and India and selectively China. 

6. ECB: Meaningfully Less Restrictive

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • The ECB’s sixth 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.5% was unsurprising, and its characterisation of policy as meaningfully less restrictive leaned towards our relatively hawkish view.
  • Policy rates may already be close to neutral. Looser fiscal policy plans also pressure monetary policy to follow a tighter path than would otherwise have been necessary.
  • We still expect the ECB to hold rates in April, which is no longer a controversial call. A final 25bp ECB cut in June remains in our outlook (BoE cuts in May and Fed on hold).

7. The Drill – Geopolitical Tensions Are Easing, Not Escalating

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly editorial on geopolitics, commodities, and macro.
  • While there hasn’t been much news on the commodity front since last week, we have a bunch of moving parts on the geopolitical scene—last Friday’s heated (and unplanned) Zelensky/Trump debate, the subsequent removal of all military aid targeting Ukraine, and now Trump trying his best to get all counterparts and allies to block any partnerships with China.
  • While this was already evident earlier this week, when the administration urged Mexico to impose tariffs on China to avoid US tariffs, today’s reports of Putin acting as the middleman in the Iran nuclear deal were not something anyone had on their bingo cards.

8. HEM: Pausing Policy Easing

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • Central banks are advised to slow, pause, or stop reducing rates due to rising inflation and labour costs.
  • Inflation is unexpectedly increasing, and labour costs are exceeding target-consistent levels.
  • Monetary policy is almost neutral according to activity trends, but rate hikes in 2026 could counteract unnecessary easing.

9. Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.
  • I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.
  • As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.

10. HEW: Political Blunderbuss

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • Shot from Trump’s blunderbuss is hitting sentiment and risk appetite yet the hard data remain resilient. Europe waking up on defence punched markets more in hope than reality, but hawkish inflation and ECB news helped create room to close our bullish call.
  • Next week’s US inflation data are the scheduled global highlight, along with the Bank of Canada likely pausing its cutting cycle. We also await UK GDP data confirming resilience inconsistent with the dovish panic at February’s BoE meeting.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).
Mar 02
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Mar 2, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. EA Resilience Is Perfunctory Problem

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

  • Crashing US surveys in 2025 have looked idiosyncratic, as spurious exaggeration of exceptionalism ends. The ESI corroborates the PMI’s resilience in the euro area.
  • Price expectations have been trending further above long-run averages without a one-off shock, suggesting European policy is too loose for this stage of the economic cycle.
  • EA unemployment remains lower than a year ago, inconsistent with tight monetary conditions. We still see the ECB’s last cut in June, much sooner than the market prices.

2. Warren Buffett’s Increased Stakes in Japanese Trading Houses – Impact on Korean Trading Companies

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • In this insight, we discuss how Buffett’s increased stakes in Japanese trading companies could positively impact Korean trading companies.
  • In addition, we look back at the past five years and compare how the major Korean trading companies have performed relative to their Japanese counterparts. 
  • In Korea, we believe that the following 5 major Korean trading companies (POSCO International, Hanwha Corp, LX International, Samsung Corp, and Hyundai Corp) could continue to outperform the market.

3. Steno Signals #186 – The year of the weak USD is upon us

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a middle-of-the-road outcome, which should be seen as a net positive for European assets for now.
  • CDU (Conservatives) and SPD (Social Democrats) will be able to form a GroKo (Grand Coalition) with 328 mandates, which is a coalition that could likely find some common ground around spending more and removing the debt brake, at least temporarily.
  • A permanent removal of the debt brake will require the backing of an additional party.

4. What Is NPS Buying and Selling in the Korean Stock Market in 2025 So Far?

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • KOSPI and KOSDAQ are up 10.2% and 14%, respectively YTD, outperforming S&P 500 is up 2.2% in the same period.  so far. 
  • One of the big drivers of higher share prices of Korean stock market this year has been the strong net buying by the NPS.
  • Some of the major stocks that have been net purchased by the NPS so far this year include Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, LG Energy Solution, Hyundai E&C, and Samsung Biologics.

5. Asian Equities: Asia’s Robust Dividend Yielders

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

  • In today’s uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.
  • In addition to considering today’s dividend yields, we think it’s also imperative to take into account companies’ future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.
  • Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.

6. Over the Horizon: A Review of Thematic Trends

By David Mudd

  • Our most prominent theme over the last year has been to BUY HK/China markets. We are still very bullish on these SECULAR BULL markets.
  • We have been Bullish on gold and discussed the asymmetry of its price movements given the global tightening starting in 2021/22. Gold will continues to benefit from negative real rates.
  • We have been Bearish on Japan since publishing Technically Speaking: Japan Meets Resistance and Hong Kong Finally Breaks Downtrend on April 2, 2024. We also remain bearish on India.

7. The Other Risk to World Trade: China’s Mercantilism

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

  • While America’s restrictions threaten the global trading order, China’s outdated, export-reliant model is culpable, too. In exporting its overcapacity, China behaves like a small, open economy, but it is not.
  • Given its size, China’s export surges produce outsized effects, triggering protectionist responses. China’s friends in the Global South are scrambling to defend their domestic industries, and not just the  West.
  • Until China finds a way to recycle its surpluses into investments in other countries, trading partners will suffer the downsides of import competition without any offsets, thus worsening trade tensions.

8. The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now

By Nomura – The Week Ahead, Nomura – The Week Ahead

  • Peace hopes are higher and tariff fears have subsided for now
  • China hosting summit with tech entrepreneurs could boost economy
  • Markets becoming complacent over Trump’s policies, uncertainty remains on future developments

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

9. Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

By Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf), The Macro Compass

  • The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.
  • My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.

  • The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.

10. The Case for Europe

By Trillions, Trillions

  • Europe is outperforming the US in terms of stock market performance this year
  • Valuations in the US are high, while Europe is trading at a historic discount
  • Expectations for US companies are high, while Europe’s expectations are low, leading to potential momentum shifts between the two regions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Feb 23
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 23, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. Kevin Jiang – The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management
  • Kevin’s background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assets
  • Discussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentiment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

2. Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?

By The Bid, The Bid

  • Fed interest rate policies have not followed traditional patterns, with long-term rates decoupling from short-term rates
  • The economic shock of Covid-19 has led to increased focus on inflation and uncertainty in the bond market
  • Fed Chairman Powell’s actions and fiscal policy responses have contributed to changing economic dynamics and interest rate outlooks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

3. U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

  • If the Fed convinces the market that it is leaving the door open to easing and sees Fed Funds reduction multi-year, then 2yr could hold onto a small discount .
  • 10yr yields will likely maintain a small to modest premium to 2yr.
  • Funding will keep 10yr Treasuriies elevated unless a slowdown in the economy is evident, but the 10yr budget bill now looks like it will produce a budget deficit in 2026-27.

4. What the Surge in Gold Tells Us About the Stock Market

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • The gold bull is just starting, with strong upside potential in the coming investment cycle.
  • The market is undergoing a regime shift. Gold will be useful to hedge against bond weakness in the coming cycle, which will see small-caps dominate large-caps and value dominate growth.
  • Gold mining stocks present a long-term opportunity, but may be vulnerable to a short-term setback.

5. Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity, tradeable themes, and everything in between.
  • Reciprocal tariffs is a concept you’ll need to familiarize yourself with.
  • Despite Trump’s press conference last week being a confusing mess, lacking clarity on geographies, products, and specific tariff/VAT rates targeted in this tit-for-tat approach, the aim seems crystal clear: Trump wants a global response, and it could very well lead to globally lower tariffs and VAT rates.

6. India & Trump’s Trade War

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip,  and we are structurally long Indian equities. 
  • However the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s  global trade war and China has diminished. Two reasons. 
  • First, India’s disappointing economic performance. Second, Trading Post’s expectations that the trade war will be over sooner than consensus is expecting and that a US-China trade deal will be struck.

7. The Drill – The Big Tech Showdown

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

  • Xi’s Tech Summit: China’s Wake-Up Call: On Monday, February 17, Xi Jinping sat down with China’s tech elite in what looked like a serious course correction. Jack Ma (Alibaba) was there. So was Ren Zhengfei (Huawei). But one key figure was missing: Robin Li, Baidu’s CEO. His absence sent Baidu’s stock into a tailspin, wiping out billions in market value before state media scrambled to calm investors down.

  • Trump’s Tech Playbook: No More Playing Defense: Beijing is watching what’s happening in Washington—and it doesn’t like what it sees. The Trump administration is moving fast, rolling back regulation, cutting deals with industry giants, and pushing AI, semiconductors, and defense tech like it’s the new space race.

  • Baidu’s Stock Crash: A Symbol of China’s Problem: The Baidu selloff shows that investors are still nervous about China’s real stance on tech. It’s one thing to invite Jack Ma back into the room—it’s another to convince the market that Beijing is serious about letting private companies thrive again.

8. US vs EU Part 3: Russia/Ukraine

By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

  • The misinterpretation of the recent Trump/Putin phone conversation by the commentariat partly explains why markets are currently ahead of the curve on Russia/Ukraine issues.
  • As long as European leaders continue to deny the state of transatlantic relations, the situation remains uncertain.
  • Given the current circumstances, investors should proceed with caution, keeping in mind the principle of ‘caveat emptor’ (buyer beware).

9. Charting India’s Path in an Evolving World

By Priyanka Kishore, Asia Decoded

  • India’s economic future continues to be hotly debated, not least because of Prime Minister Modi’s vision to make it a developed economy by 2047.
  • Unfortunately, economic trends haven’t played along. The stellar post-pandemic growth recovery has given way to an abrupt slowdown, led by falling private consumption growth.
  • We chat with eminent Indian scholar and noted journalist, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, on the opportunities and challenges facing India.

10. India – Stay Overweight But Hedge

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Maintain structural overweight on Indian equities but hedge against rupee weakness
  • While buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip, the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s  global trade war and China has diminished. 
  • That said fundamentals – corporate and bank balance sheets – are strong, the corporate profit cycle is in upswing and the real cost of capital is within the normal range.  
Feb 16
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 16, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we aim to paint a medium-term picture of liquidity, growth, and inflation—and how these factors will impact your allocation.
  • It seems The Donald has a penchant for late Friday tariff announcements, keeping markets on edge for a second consecutive Monday open.
  • This pattern is starting to take shape, though we likely need a third occurrence before drawing statistical conclusions.

2. The Economic Impact of Tariffs

By The Bid, The Bid

  • Recent announcements of tariffs by the Trump administration have caused global tensions and retaliatory measures
  • The tariffs are aimed at countries like Mexico, Canada, and China, with potential impacts on US companies and global supply chains
  • The situation is evolving, with negotiations and potential escalations to watch for in the coming days

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

3. The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

By David Mudd

  • Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
  • DeepSeek’s announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
  • Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump’s hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. 

4. Korea Exchange Announces 8 Major Incentives for Selected Excellent Value-Up Companies

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 11 February, the Korea Exchange announced eight major incentives for selected excellent Corporate Value Up companies every May starting this year.
  • Some of the major incentives include preferential tax treatment and preferential inclusion in the Korea Value Up index. 
  • The Korea Exchange plans to select and announce 10 companies that will be included as Excellent Value Up Companies for the first time in May 2025.

5. Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong’s secular bull market gained after DeepSeek’s announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.
  • Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.
  • BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.

6. The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

  • All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.
  • For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.
  • This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.

7. Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Nextrade (NXT) is an alternative trading system (ATS) in Korea which will start to go live on 4 March.
  • Nextrade provided a list of 10 stocks including Lotte Shopping,  Cheil Worldwide,  Kolon Industries, LG Uplus, and S Oil that will start to trade on NXT starting 4 March. 
  • Most of these 10 stocks tend to be lower beta stocks with relatively low amounts of share volatility. These 10 stocks are up on average 2.8% YTD, underperforming KOSPI.

8. The Rise of Quant Investing in Crypto w/ Truvius CEO Connor Farley | The New Barbarians #007

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • The podcast is called New Barbarians and focuses on digital assets and opportunities in the market
  • The special guest, Connor Farley, is the CEO and co-founder of Truvias, an SEC registered investment advisor specializing in digital asset portfolio management
  • The current market trends include rising inflation concerns, increasing interest in gold, and the potential for Bitcoin to act as digital gold, according to the hosts and guest.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

9. Advancements in Portfolio Construction & Optimization | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #001

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • The podcast discusses advanced portfolio optimization techniques in the world of digital assets
  • Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a key concept in investing, but newer models and techniques like Black Litterman and shrinkage estimators are being used to address limitations
  • Thematic model grouping and consolidated alpha optimization are two key approaches to portfolio construction discussed in the episode.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

10. Early Days of New Trump Administration

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

  • The early days of the Trump administration has seen lots of volatility around the tariffs with Canada and Mexico, but the more stable U.S. Treasury market helps provide an anchor. 
  • U.S. Treasuries have shift towards the view that the 10yr budget bill will be delayed until H2 and likely be only modestly stimulative in 2026. 
  • Combined with the Fed still leaving the door open to rate cuts this has helped avoid major directional movements. 
Feb 09
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 9, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatility
  • Limited contagion to broader market, some stocks even up
  • Potential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continues

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

2. Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.
  • Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.
  • I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.

3. The Tariff Effect: Economic Uncertainty Unpacked | The New Barbarians #006

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Equities opened down, with futures showing a decline across various markets
  • January saw significant gains in gold and Bitcoin, outperforming equities
  • European stocks surged 8.2% in a month, surprising many investors and challenging traditional market outlooks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

4. The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs on oil and China
  • Tariffs are paid by US consumers at the point of entry, not fully equating to a 25% price increase
  • Uncertainty about impact of tariffs on prices of goods like maple syrup and avocados

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

5. Can the Stock Market Vigilantes Save the Bull?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • The current environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips”.
  • The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices.
  • On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the Trump Put in the event of a market downdraft. 

6. China-U.S. Trade War Next To Talks?

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

  • Negotiating will likely start in spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new objectives to boost U.S. exports and penalties
  • China will likely be quick to make concessions on needed agricultural imports and illegal Fentanyl from China, but slow to concede on the idea of penalties. 
  • It will be a volatile road to an eventual deal in late H1 or early H2.    

7. A Long-Term Sell Signal?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • Breadth indicators are flashing early cautionary signals for U.S. equities, but these signals can often be early in calling a major market top.
  • A review of other indicators on different investing dimensions are either benign or cautious.
  • We interpret this as the warning of a possible major market top in Q1 or Q2. Investors should monitor risk appetite indicators for tactical signs to turn cautious.

8. The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

  • Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.
  • This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.
  • Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.

9. Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollar
  • Deepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity markets
  • Despite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility ahead

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

10. The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Guidance, Indonesia’s Pragmatism, and Thai Banks

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research

Feb 02
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 2, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. How Oaktree’s Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Howard Marks correctly called the dot com bubble in the early 2000s
  • The 1990s were a placid period for credit investors but a hot time for equity investors
  • Being too far ahead of your time in predicting market trends can be painful and indistinguishable from being wrong

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

2. Steno Signals #182 – Cutting Through the Trump Noise: A Massive Uniform Move Is Happening

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
  • We are now at the final innings of the inauguration week, and oh boy did it surprise and entertain right about everyone (including me).
  • From full-blown tariffs from the get-go being the base case, a Trump meme coin being launched into the week and a government sponsored Bitcoin reserve (or at least a clear reference to the crypto space during his first week) to barely any mentioning of crypto, no immediate tariffs on China and very accommodative policies on the fiscal side, which makes the 3% deficit target proposed by Scott Bessent look unrealistic at best.

3. Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World

By Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez, Macro Hive

  • Jay Peloski, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked analyst at Morgan Stanley, discusses the tripolar framework of regional integration and competition between Europe, Asia, and the Americas
  • Europe faces challenges with common taxation and revenue creation, Asia is increasingly integrated around China, and the Americas have not fully leveraged North America integration and engagement with South America
  • Regional competition is seen in key areas such as AI, climate, and defense, with each region vying for economic influence and competitive advantage amid global shifts and challenges

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

4. Generative AI, LLMs, & the Evolution of Product Teams w/ Dr. Thársis Souza | The New Barbarians #005

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Mark has 15 years of experience delivering new technology products in a variety of companies and holds a PhD in Computer Science from UCL University of London
  • He is the author of the book Taming LLMs and the creator of Podcastify AI
  • Mark recapped recent events in the markets, discussed taming LLMs and creating robotic podcasts, and highlighted the success of Bitcoin ETFs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

5. The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

  • Let’s start with DeepSeek.
  • The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.
  • With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.

6. Overview #14 – The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
  • The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
  • India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption 

7. EM Fixed Income Focus: What we know (or don’t) after Week 1

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

  • EM markets reacting to executive orders and remarks from President Trump, particularly focused on tariffs
  • EM currencies have shown some strength due to lack of tariff implementation so far
  • Market relief since the inauguration, but uncertainty remains around tariff policy and other domestic issues

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

8. Mexico faces a deficit – and Donald Trump

By Behind the Money, Behind the Money

  • President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October, inheriting a delicate economic situation from her popular predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
  • Many lower income people in Mexico are benefiting from higher wages and government social programs, but others, particularly middle and higher income earners, feel stagnant economic growth and uncertainty due to US tariff threats.
  • The relationship between Mexico and the US, along with Sheinbaum’s plans and the ability to attract outside investment, will be key factors in Mexico’s economic growth under her leadership.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

9. Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Inflation, particularly in housing costs, has been a big theme in recent American life.
  • Despite the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation, rent price growth has been moderating.
  • Multifamily housing developers are feeling the strain of higher interest rates and a lack of supply due to decreased activity in the market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

10. The Shift Of Supply Chains From China To Southeast Asia

By ASEAN Exchanges, ASEAN Exchanges

  • China’s rise as a global manufacturing hub was fueled by WTO accession in 2001, supported by export-friendly policies, low-cost labor, and rapid infrastructure development.
  • A 1994 currency devaluation and a shift to value-added goods boosted productivity as labor costs increased.
  • Since the mid-2010s, rising costs and geopolitical factors have driven supply chains to Southeast Asia.
Jan 26
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jan 26, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. Introducing: Trumponomics

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Donald Trump’s economic policies are changing the way we think about the US economy and shaping the global economy
  • The Trumponomics podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, discusses Trump’s economic agenda and its implications
  • Trump’s policies may be inflationary and there are concerns about what will happen next without any guardrails in place

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

2. Trump’s Tariffs and China: THE STATE OF PLAY

By David Mudd

  • Trump has already entered negotiations with President Xi which may result in a temporary refrain from imposing tariffs.
  • Trump has indicated that TikTok will now be part of a broader deal with China which he outlined as a potential 50/50 joint venture with China. 
  • China has more leverage in trade negotiations with the US than it had during Trump’s first term.

3. Rebuilding The US Physical Economy

By The Bid, The Bid

  • The US infrastructure is in need of billions of dollars in investments to bring it up to speed, highlighted by the $1.1 trillion Infrastructure Investment Economy and Jobs act.
  • There is a focus on reshoring and revitalizing the US economy through infrastructure investments, with private companies playing a significant role in funding major projects.
  • Demographic trends, such as the rise of the millennial generation, are driving demand for housing and impacting the housing market, with lower interest rates potentially helping to alleviate some of the pressures.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

4. Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • We are starting a new series of insights called “Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly.”
  • The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.
  • The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.

5. Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
  • It’s been an incredibly eventful weekend in Trump-land, and those who expected him to save all the fireworks for the inauguration speech have already been left behind.
  • To recap, Trump has either officially or via leaks/sources hinted at the following:The launch of the official meme-Trump-coin, which has gone absolutely through the roof, taking SOL to new highs alongside it.

6. Trump 2025 Market = Reagan 1981?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • History doesn’t repeat itself but rhymes. The current market pattern is eerily similar to the 1980–1981 period when Ronald Reagan first won when the market made an intermediate-term top. 
  • Reagan entered the White House amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm but the stock market ran into technical and economic headwinds.
  • In 1980, the market faced the challenge of a highly hawkish Federal Reserve. In 2025, the market faces the challenge of elevated valuation and expectations.

7. Details of the Major Changes in Delisting Rules in Korea

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 21 January, the FSC announced the full details of the major changes in the delisting rules in Korea, which should help to reduce the “Korea Discount.”
  • This is one of the biggest ever changes to delisting rules in Korea in the past 30 years.
  • These changes will be especially important among investors that are interested in small caps in Korea. 

8. Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.
  • They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.
  • Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

9. Quarterly Market Recap: Q4 2024 – [Making Markets, EP.53]

By Web3 Breakdowns, Web3 Breakdowns

  • 2024 was a great year for risk assets, with the S&P up 23% and Bitcoin up 150%
  • The year started with concerns about a recession and aggressive Fed rate cuts, but ended with market consensus aligning and a strong performance
  • The narrative heading into 2025 includes concerns about Trump’s impact on deregulation and tariffs, as well as potential inflation from immigration policies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

10. Reasons To Underweight China

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the  economy Is yet to bottom.
  • Loss making companies were up 11% YoY in the first 11 months  of 2024 and accounted for 25% of manufacturing. 
  • Operating revenues have held-up, but operating costs are rising fast as are inventories and liabilities. Corporate debt to GDP had already hit 295% in 3Q24.
Jan 19
0

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jan 19, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE

1. A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025

By The Bid, The Bid

  • Equity markets have performed well in the past two years, with 2024 being another strong year
  • Looking ahead to 2025, we explore the impact of inflation, interest rates, and artificial intelligence on the market
  • BlackRock’s global CIO discusses the rarity of three years of 20%+ returns, opportunities in AI, and challenges facing investors in the new year.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

2. Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Term premium is a key concept in measuring bond yields and interest rates
  • The global economy is experiencing fiscal pressures and political noise, impacting bond markets
  • Central bank asset purchases and sell-offs, along with regulatory reforms, are influencing the bond market and interest rates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

3. China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.
  • This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.
  • Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.

4. President Yoon’s Approval Ratings Surges to 47%, Gets Arrested, and Declares Rampant Election Fraud

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • It has been another wild day in South Korea as Yoon Suk-Yeol became the first sitting South Korean President to be arrested. 
  • A recent local poll released on 14 January showed that President Yoon’s approval rating surged to 46.6%.
  • President Yoon released a letter to the Korean people. The heart of the letter is about the rampant election fraud in Korea and the desperate need to restore election integrity.

5. Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.
  • Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.
  • This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.

6. Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0

By Priyanka Kishore, Asia Decoded

  • We identify five key themes that will shape Asia’s economic outlook this year. The first theme is Trump 2.0, global tariffs and supply chain diversification.
  • Trump 2.0 will be a drag on Asia’s growth, even with targeted tariffs. Outside of China, tariff risks are highest for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
  • Lower inflation will allow central banks to shift their focus to growth and trigger a deeper rate cut cycle, provided FX weakness is within reasonable limits.

7. Headwinds, Tailwinds in 2025

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • This year overweight US dollar, underweight European, Malaysian, Korean and Indonesian sovereign bonds. In 2024 68.9% of  our  43 investment recommendation and forecasts made money.
  • The key headwinds are dollar strength , Trump’s trade war, the slower monetary policy easing, China, Europe and US valuations.
  • Tailwinds include, the strength of the  US economy, Trump’s pro-business domestic policy agenda, tame energy prices,  India, conflict resolutions and a lighter global election cycle.

8. The Launch of the KRX TMI (Total Market Index) – Korea’s TOPIX Index

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Korea Exchange disclosed the new KRX TMI (Total Market Index) on 13 January. This is a market index that consists of eligible stocks in the entire KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets.
  • The KRX TMI index is similar to Japan’s TOPIX index. The KRX TMI index is calculated by adopting a free-float market capitalization weighting method.
  • We provide a list of 20 companies in KOSDAQ that could benefit from the launch of the KRX TMI index. 

9. 69.8% Of Our 2024 Calls Made Money

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • We are optimistic about the outlook for global growth and markets in 2025, despite anticipating turbulence driven by Trump’s policies. Stay overweight US markets, US dollar and Bitcoin. Underweight China. 
  • Our differentiated business cycle framework investing worked. Of the 43 calls made, on global markets and eleven countries/regions,  69.8% were accurate+ in 2024.
  • We predicted  the US soft landing , Trump’s re-election, a strong dollar, the US & bitcoin rallies, the European slowdown and TAIX outperformance.

10. Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

By Nitin Mangal, Trudence Capital Advisors

  • The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
  • The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
  • Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.