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1. Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks
- Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatility
- Limited contagion to broader market, some stocks even up
- Potential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continues
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2. Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside
- Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.
- Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.
- I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.
3. The Tariff Effect: Economic Uncertainty Unpacked | The New Barbarians #006
- Equities opened down, with futures showing a decline across various markets
- January saw significant gains in gold and Bitcoin, outperforming equities
- European stocks surged 8.2% in a month, surprising many investors and challenging traditional market outlooks
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4. The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets
- Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs on oil and China
- Tariffs are paid by US consumers at the point of entry, not fully equating to a 25% price increase
- Uncertainty about impact of tariffs on prices of goods like maple syrup and avocados
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5. Can the Stock Market Vigilantes Save the Bull?
- The current environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips”.
- The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices.
- On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the Trump Put in the event of a market downdraft.
6. China-U.S. Trade War Next To Talks?
- Negotiating will likely start in spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new objectives to boost U.S. exports and penalties
- China will likely be quick to make concessions on needed agricultural imports and illegal Fentanyl from China, but slow to concede on the idea of penalties.
- It will be a volatile road to an eventual deal in late H1 or early H2.
7. A Long-Term Sell Signal?
- Breadth indicators are flashing early cautionary signals for U.S. equities, but these signals can often be early in calling a major market top.
- A review of other indicators on different investing dimensions are either benign or cautious.
- We interpret this as the warning of a possible major market top in Q1 or Q2. Investors should monitor risk appetite indicators for tactical signs to turn cautious.
8. The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics
- Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.
- This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.
- Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.
9. Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement
- Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollar
- Deepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity markets
- Despite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility ahead
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10. The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Guidance, Indonesia’s Pragmatism, and Thai Banks
- The past week saw insights on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ, SLB Development (SLB SP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Hyphens Pharma International (HYP SP), and Bund Center Investment (BTE SP).
- There was also a macro insight on Singapore, an Indonesia Strategy Insight, and a bank screener looking at Thai Banks from Victor Galliano.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.