Utilities Sector

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• ENN Energy
• ENN Natural Gas
• Indofood CBP Sukses
• West China Cement
• Wynn Macau Ltd

• Company focused on renewable energy projects in Latin America
• Plans to refinance debt, expand projects, and acquire small projects
• Goal of achieving 66% EBITDA growth by 2027, improving balance sheet, growing free cash flow, trading at an attractive valuation, and paying a dividend

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COG’s FY 2023 results were acceptable in our view. Importantly, the audit issues resulting in the belated publication of results appear to be minor, with auditor PwC giving a clean audit opinion overall. Leverage was largely stable despite the soft earnings, thanks to debt reduction. In addition, we view positively that the guarantees provided to associate Shandong Shengli (which we classify under debt) have largely fallen away. COG’s liquidity is adequate, as the company is poised to refinance the bridge loan using a new syndicated loan facility.

We move our recommendation to “Buy” from “Hold” on the CHIOIL 4.7 ’26s.

• The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked and followed indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
• This annual index rebal event usually results in some of the most significant index flow events in Europe every year, typically amounting to billions of dollars of flows.
• In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2024.

• While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&P 500
• Since late-February, we’ve discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
• 4920-4950 is now support near last week’s lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT
• Vedanta Resources

Jersey Electricity (JEL) is intensifying its focus on energy security and electrification across Jersey by creating opportunities to accelerate growth. It successfully navigated the volatile wholesale power price environment in 2020–23, shielding its customer base from the worst inflationary pressures. However, from 2025, as older, more favourable hedges expire, this protection will diminish. Therefore, we have marginally reduced our earnings forecasts to account for the increased exposure to wholesale prices. Nonetheless, JEL remains well-positioned for continued growth, driven by decarbonisation and electrification over the long term.

We view ENN Energy as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This reflects the company’s large scale and diversified business profile across Mainland China as well as its robust financial position, with low leverage. These are balanced against ENN Energy’s exposure to commodity price risks and potential changes in government policies. In addition, the company has ongoing related-party transactions.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on ENN Energy is “Stable”, supported by the defensive nature of the industry and the company’s good cash-flow generation. ENN Energy has maintained c. 1.0x net leverage over the past five years.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. While natural gas is a fossil fuel, it has a lower carbon footprint compared to coal, and has been regarded as a “transition fuel” for countries currently dependent on coal (e.g. China and Indonesia). This will likely support strong gas demand over the next decade, particularly in developing countries.

We have a “Hold” recommendation on the XINAOG notes, with the 2.625 ’30s at 83.9/5.6%/5.7 years.

• TAQA has admitted considering a full takeover of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) and discussions with CriteriaCaixa regarding a possible cooperation pact, with CriteriaCaixa remaining a shareholder.
• GIP and CVC have exceeded the typical investment maturity period and may be willing to dispose of their stakes in Naturgy if presented with a good offer.
• The possibility of corporate actions could bolster the stock from these levels. I assign a >50% probability to a full/partial takeover bid at around €25/26 per share actually materializing.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy