United States

Ecolab is a major provider of water, hygiene and infection prevention solutions and services.
The company has been benefitting from the recent price increases which has resulted in consistent double-digit organic sales growth in recent results.
They also invested in select breakthrough innovations to help customers save more water, energy, and cost, especially in Europe.

PPG Industries Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Model & Key Drivers

This is our first report on PPG, a well-known manufacturer of paints, coatings and specialty materials.
The company performed well in several of its companies, notably PPG Comex.
They also began collaborating with the HD Supply team to find new paint clients, particularly in the commercial maintenance sector.

Ecolab Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Model & Key Drivers

This is our first report on Ecolab, a major provider of water, hygiene and infection prevention solutions and services.
The company delivered a below-par result with revenues just about meeting Wall Street expectations on account of the price increases.
The company saw overall pricing increasing from 9% to 12% and consistent double-digit organic sales growth of 13%.

PPG Industries Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

PPG is a renowned manufacturer and distributor of paints, coatings and specialty materials.
The company’s recent financial performance has been solid and has been supported by ongoing real-time price hikes.
The company has consistently performed well in several of its companies, notably PPG Comex.

Progressive Corp: Initiation of Coverage – Technological Superiority & Other Drivers

This is our first report on auto insurance major, Progressive Corp.
The company had a disappointing quarter and failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
This quarter, the company increased personal auto rates in 20 states at an average of around 5% each day for an overall countrywide premium impact of +2%.

United Rentals Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth & Other Drivers

This is our first report on United Rentals, one of the largest equipment rental companies in the world, known for renting out construction, aerial and industrial equipment, general tools and light equipment.
The company’s fleet productivity increased by roughly 9%, while rental revenue increased by 20% year over year in the last quarter.
The demand for its equipment rental services is relatively high, even though some parts of the economy are slowing down.

BlackRock’s Q4 Earnings Beat Conveys An Inflection Point

BlackRock’s Q4 earnings report suggests an inflection point might be near.
The company managed to mitigate systemic risks during its latest quarter, preserving its base rate rate-centric business model.
In addition, aggressive investment in technology prompted a rise in product launch costs, according to the report.

United Rentals Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

United Rentals is one of the largest equipment rental companies in the world, known for renting out construction, aerial and industrial equipment, general tools and light equipment.
The company is operating in a favorable operational climate and its fleet productivity has been increasing as per recent results, resulting in a higher rental revenue.
The demand for its equipment rental services is relatively high, even though some parts of the economy are slowing down.

DoorDash Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Collaborations & Other Drivers

This is our first report on DoorDash, the largest online food aggregator in the U.S.
The company is a market leader in its domain and has demonstrated incredible resilience.
Even in the last quarter, its market revenues have increased significantly despite the oil crisis, relatively persistent inflation, and the European war.

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Jan 13

Daily Brief United States: Tesla Motors, Bitcoin, Ethereum, National Vision Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

What Is Tesla’s Outlook After It Drops Out Of Top 10 Largest U.S. Public Companies?
Weekly Close Is Likely To Confirm Sustainable Bitcoin and Ethereum Uptrends
Liquid Staking Derivatives Wars
National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Recommendation: Sell Short

What Is Tesla’s Outlook After It Drops Out Of Top 10 Largest U.S. Public Companies?

Tesla’s disastrous performance has resulted in the company no longer being among the Top 10 largest U.S. public companies.
Market commentators remain laser-focused on business fundamentals, while outside factors are still in the driver’s seat.
Back in April of last year (less than a year ago) the optimism on Wall Street was running high.

Weekly Close Is Likely To Confirm Sustainable Bitcoin and Ethereum Uptrends

By David Coloretti, CMT

Today we step away from our ST / tactical TSS strategy and focus on definitive MT momentum confirmation.
The uptrends that have evolved since the November lows in Bitcoin and Ethereum are small relative to the 2022 declines.
This week is in the process of delivering definitive bullish MT momentum confirmation in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Such an outcome will confirm a high probability multi-month uptrend bias.

Liquid Staking Derivatives Wars

By Kaiko

As a proof of stake network, Ethereum rewards stakers with block rewards and user fees.
However, the 32 ETH minimum required to stake your ETH directly on the network prohibits the vast majority of users from doing so. Enter liquid staking derivatives, or LSDs.
LSDs refer to the tokens created by DeFi protocols or centralized services designed to reward users who stake ETH on their platform.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Recommendation: Sell Short

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

Sales have fallen for four quarters. Comp store sales growth fell -8% last quarter due to customer weakness, the declining macro environment and constraints on exam capacity (optometrists).
Optometrists are supply constrained, which pressure margins from rising compensation. Investor-owned optometry service providers are at a disadvantage competing with professional practices that don’t share fees with investors.
National Vision is neither large and vertically integrated like Essilor Luxottica, nor niche focused like Warby Parker is on ecommerce. Their low-price strategy is easily replicable by competitors.

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Jan 12

Daily Brief United States: S&P 500, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Matador Resources Co, Chubb Corp, Mastercard, Citigroup Inc, Edwards Lifesciences and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
Matador Resources: Downgraded To Sell; 50% Downside Possible
Chubb Limited: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion In China & Other Drivers
Mastercard: Turning Cautiously Positive On The Business As Recession Looms Ahead
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
Citigroup: A Q4 Earnings Beat Is Highly Possible
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Approvals & Other Drivers

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

By Joe Jasper

We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday’s break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

This is our first report on Hilton Worldwide, one of the largest hotel chains in the world.
Despite the good performance, Hilton failed to meet Wall Street expectations with respect to revenues but it did manage an earnings beat.
We initiate coverage on the stock of Hilton Worldwide Holdings with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Matador Resources: Downgraded To Sell; 50% Downside Possible

Matador Resources’ exponential growth trajectory could be crushed by less supportive oil and gas prices, which might compress the firm’s earnings per share.
However, acquisitions and expansion projects will be challenging during a period embodied by unfavorable capital structures and recession risk.
It’s been ten months since we covered Matador Resources’ (NYSE:MTDR) stock.

Chubb Limited: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion In China & Other Drivers

This is our first report on insurance major, Chubb.
The company had an excellent quarter given the enormous underwriting outcomes and it delivered an all-around beat.
During the quarter, Chubb continued to accelerate the turnover of its portfolio in a targeted manner.

Mastercard: Turning Cautiously Positive On The Business As Recession Looms Ahead

As M&A activity has cooled down, some risks for shareholders have been reduced and management has prioritized higher returns to shareholders.
Although I am turning cautiously positive on Mastercard, there are still risks that need to be considered, according to Mastercard’s chief executive.
The performance gap between Mastercard (NYSE:MA) and the S&P 500 that opened in 2021 has now been completely closed.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Hilton Worldwide is one of the largest hotel chains in the world.
Hilton’s management also announced several strategic alliances to strengthen their international network and improve the guest experience.
All categories saw rates rise above levels from 2019, with transitory leisure rates rising into the high teens and business transient and group rates rising into the mid-single digits.

Citigroup: A Q4 Earnings Beat Is Highly Possible

Most of the bank’s restructuring charges will be phased out of its valuation as they are non-core.
However, a residual income model suggests that Citigroup’s stock is tremendously undervalued.
The bank is scheduled to release its Q4 earnings report on Friday, and we are exceptionally bullish.

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Approvals & Other Drivers

This is our first report on Edwards Lifesciences, a market leading manufacturer of heart valve systems and repair products.
The last quarter was highly disappointing as Edwards failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
Besides, their market-leading SAPIEN 3 Ultra transcatheter aortic heart valve combines Edwards’ ground-breaking RESILIA technology.

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Jan 11

Daily Brief United States: Ethereum, S&P 500, WD-40 Company and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Profitability of Ethereum and a Short-Term Rally Ahead of the Shanghai Upgrade in March
EQD | SPX and NDX : Its US CPI Time and We Look at Trading Opportunites in the Options Market
WDFC: The Floodgates of Inventory

Profitability of Ethereum and a Short-Term Rally Ahead of the Shanghai Upgrade in March

By Edward Wu

Ethereum is the only profitable blockchain, a analysis of revenue and expense of Ethereum;
Ethereum staking ratio is the lowest among all PoS blockchains and the Shanghai upgrade in March will change this;
Why will there be a short-term rally ahead of the Shanghai upgrade?

EQD | SPX and NDX : Its US CPI Time and We Look at Trading Opportunites in the Options Market

By Simon Harris

US CPI data is due on Thursday 12th January and is likley to be another important data point
SPX Index is down nearly 5% since November and NDX Index is down nearly 8% over the same period
We look for short-term trading opportunities in the options market

WDFC: The Floodgates of Inventory

WDFC reported fiscal first quarter (November 2022) results where sales declined more than expected while past price increases helped gross margin rebound from the August quarter
WDFC’s inventory maintained its incline reaching a new record and is now $119.1 million. We believe WDFC’s inventory hides the true cost of the business
The lack of demand remains a headwind that is leading to higher inventory levels. The scale of increase in inventory should continue to play a factor on WDFC’s earnings quality

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Jan 10

Daily Brief United States: S&P 500, Paypal Holdings, Xperi, Tractor Supply Company, Huobi Token, Chevron Corp, Nike, Crude Oil, Iridium Communications and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

SPX Bounce to Short
PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS Target Achieved in 12 Days (+12.5%)
XPER: CES and a New Catalyst
Tractor Supply Company: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
Huobi Market Share Plummets in 2022
Chevron: The Narrative Is Your Worst Enemy
Sporting Crypto – Top 3 Web3 Trends for the Sports Industry in 2023
Lennar Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
The Commodity Report #85
IRDM: Snapping to a New Price Target

SPX Bounce to Short

By Thomas Schroeder

SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950 is unfolding with risk of an early failure. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce.
Sell points noted at 3,950 with scope to 3,980. We are using NDX and RTY as our short vehicles.
DXY still needs some time to base at 103/102 but a low would fit with a risk top here.

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS Target Achieved in 12 Days (+12.5%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

On 16 December we determined that the new interim downtrend low at 69.77 would likely fail and produce an 8% to 13% correction to 75.00/78.50 in 1-2 weeks.
PYPL US subsequently bottomed at 66.39, before reversing to 78.48 (+12.5% from 69.77), 12 days after our recommendation.
Please refer to our publication on 19 October 2022 … “Introducing Our Tactical Trend Reversal Methodology: TSS (Trend Sustainability Score)” for a description of our proprietary TSS methodology.

XPER: CES and a New Catalyst

XPER used the CES event this year to make several news announcements, but the biggest news for XPER was the one released by Roku Inc. (ROKU).
The ROKU announcement causes TiVo being the only independent TV operating system. We believe this could result in XPER establishing greater market share for its TVOS than originally expected
During CES Verstel introduced a series of TVs under multiple brands that would use TiVo TVOS. Additionally, XPER revealed more automakers that are releasing car models with AutoSense and AutoStage

Tractor Supply Company: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

This is our first report on Tractor Supply Company, a major rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S. catering to recreational farmers and ranchers.
It delivered a mixed quarter, missing out on the revenue expectations of analysts but managing an earnings beat.
We initiate coverage on the stock of Tractor Supply Company with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Huobi Market Share Plummets in 2022

By Kaiko

Price Movements: Most Layer 1 tokens have struggled versus ETH since December, but SOL and ATOM have recently outperformed.
Market Liquidity: Curve’s 3pool – made up of USDT, USDC, and DAI – has seen its total value locked fall from $5.5bn to just $600mn over the past year.
Derivatives: Both SOL and LDO experienced a short squeeze as each token unexpectedly rallied.

Chevron: The Narrative Is Your Worst Enemy

Chevron has nearly doubled since I first laid out my investment thesis, all the while negative sentiment remained high.
Short-term volatility is to be expected, however, remaining focused on the long-term competitiveness of the business is more important, according to the company’s chief executive.
Flashback to early 2021: Share prices of high-growth and technology companies are making new highs.

Sporting Crypto – Top 3 Web3 Trends for the Sports Industry in 2023

By Sporting Crypto

What better way to start the year than to make a fool of myself by predicting some trends for 2023?
Forecasting or predicting anything is extremely difficult and the further out you go, the less accurate you can be.
That’s even the case with weather with ~ 90% accuracy on 5-day forecasts and 50% on 10-day forecasts.

Lennar Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Lennar Corporation is one of the largest homebuilders and home finance service providers in the U.S.
The company has had a decent financial performance off-late and has strengthened its positioning for changing market conditions.
Both new and existing home market sales and sales prices are significantly down, and given commercial underwriting and lending restrictions, new rental properties are also being restricted.

The Commodity Report #85

By The Commodity Report

In the world of natural resources, iron ore is probably the most China-centric commodity — even more than crude oil, copper or soybeans.
Beijing accounts for more than 70% of the world’s imports of the mineral.
Therefore it’s not hard to see that there is a direct correlation between Iron ore prices and the health of the Chinese economy.

IRDM: Snapping to a New Price Target

The technology agreement IRDM had first announced in July 2022 became clear with the official naming during CES.
QCOM has entered into a service provider agreement with IRDM that would result in new Snapdragon with satellite connectivity
The news is more significant than a smartphone maker since QCOM’s mobile processors are used by multiple smartphone makers

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Jan 09

Daily Brief United States: Meta Platforms (Facebook) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Meta Platforms: A Value Opportunity In The Tech Environment

Meta Platforms: A Value Opportunity In The Tech Environment

By Moat Investing

META’s sustainable earnings come up with at least 30% to 35% upside potential.
There is a huge margin of safety at the current price, and multiple should expand from now forward.
Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) is one of the most beaten-up stories among the FAANG, the storytelling around the Metaverse has failed to be understood by the market, and a great deal of pessimism and future catastrophic scenarios have been priced into the stock.

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Jan 07

Daily Brief United States: Carnival Corp, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, MasterCraft Boat Holdings Inc. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Carnival: Its Recovery Program Is Already Priced In
Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won’t Be An Issue
MasterCraft: Significantly Undervalued With Secular Growth Prospects

Carnival: Its Recovery Program Is Already Priced In

The company’s year-over-year revenue has surged by more than 1.98x.
Carnival remains far adrift from its midpoint profit margins and has a sizeable corporate bond to service.
A residual income valuation model places a fair value of $9.91 on the stock, placing it in fair value territory.

Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won’t Be An Issue

The one-sided downward movement in both equity and bond prices in 2022 was both unusual and expected.
The set-up for the next 12 to 18 months is favourable for bonds, both on the short and the long-end of the curve.
The one- sided downward movement was both unexpected and expected.

MasterCraft: Significantly Undervalued With Secular Growth Prospects

Are you interested in consumer cyclical and industrial stocks while being worried about the macroeconomic outlook? Well, if you are, then MasterCraft (NASDAQ:MCFT) should be on your watchlist.
MasterCraft could part itself from the rest of the consumer cyclical segment during a trying macroeconomic environment.
The company’s Veblen good status and low debt burden could protect one’s portfolio against macro headwinds.

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Jan 06

Daily Brief United States: FTX Token, A10 Networks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

A Look at Gemini USD
ATEN: Shifting to a Second Half Event

A Look at Gemini USD

By Kaiko

The fall of the FTX and Alameda house of cards built atop a seemingly innocuous token – FTT – has raised skepticism about centralized exchanges and the tokens that they issue.
Attention was first turned to Binance, BNB, and BUSD; as a result, BUSD’s market cap fell from $23.5bn to $16.5bn in just 90 days, though Binance has seemingly passed its stress test.
Attention has now turned to Gemini, Genesis, and Digital Currency Group (DCG).

ATEN: Shifting to a Second Half Event