United States

• The fall of the FTX and Alameda house of cards built atop a seemingly innocuous token – FTT – has raised skepticism about centralized exchanges and the tokens that they issue.
• Attention was first turned to Binance, BNB, and BUSD; as a result, BUSD’s market cap fell from $23.5bn to $16.5bn in just 90 days, though Binance has seemingly passed its stress test.
• Attention has now turned to Gemini, Genesis, and Digital Currency Group (DCG).

• The recent wave of layoff related headlines along with companies putting greater scrutiny on cash outflows could result in ATEN experiencing slower than expected revenue growth in 2023
• When there are layoffs and changes to employees working more from the office it is likely to reduce the number of security devices purchased
• Our lowered revenue outlook comes with the expectation ATEN would be able to ramp revenue in the second half of the year 

• Just one day ahead of its dual primary listing in Hong Kong, Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) postponed its Listing by Introduction. 
• According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Futu has been illegally operating cross-border securities trading without approval.
• Suitably, the share prices of Futu and UP Fintech (TIGR US), another online brokerage forced to quit accepting new onshore investors. It’s probably too premature to buy the dip.

• Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
• The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
• Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.

• Air Products and Chemicals is a behemoth in the industrial gases domain and is the third-largest industrial gas supplier in the world.
• The company has had a decent financial performance off-late as all its regions have seen a gradual improvement in price and volume.
• These initiatives support the company’s energy transition plan and will continue to be a significant source of revenue for it in the future.

• This is our first report on animal health pharma major, Zoetis.
• Despite the world’s volatile external environment and economic unpredictability, Zoetis has performed well from a financial standpoint given to its varied durable portfolio and global reach.
• It delivered a 5% operating revenue increase in Q3, which reflected a decent yet below-par performance across its range of innovation-driven companion animal products, particularly in its overseas markets.

• This is our first report on industrial gases major, Air Products and Chemicals.
• The company delivered an impressive result in the last quarter, surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings per share.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• The Sprott Focus Trust exhibits outstanding risk attribution metrics.
• The fund’s constituents typically host high earnings yields, and ROIC ratios, suggesting that a value trap is unlikely.
• This is a high-conviction closed-end fund with little emphasis on sector rotation. Thus, beware of recession risk.

• Zoetis Inc is a well-known animal health pharma company.
• Besides, their pet care products are increasingly helping to fuel growth in some of their biggest markets, like China and Australia.
• The management also expects a high global demand for novel goods, particularly in companion animal parasiticides, dermatology, vaccines, diagnostics, and monoclonal antibodies for pain.

• This is our first report on medical device major, DexCom.
• Although DexCom anticipates that these primary care connections will be crucial to its long-term consumer goals, they also enable the company to serve the nation’s extensive insulin users.
• In addition, DexCom carried out its previously disclosed accelerated share repurchase program, buying roughly 550 million outstanding shares.

• IPAR has added Lacoste to its portfolio of fragrance licenses and should lead to incremental growth in 2024.
• Lacoste, like IPAR’s other major licenses, is a well-established brand that is likely to immediately contribute to sales and earnings growth when in 2024
• Heading into the holiday shopping season of 2022, fragrance was proving as a high demand category from consumers

• ARLO spent the fourth quarter adjusting to a tough consumer environment with deep discounts to clear out channel inventory. 
• ARLO had already provided quarterly revenue guidance taking into consideration the discounting and promotions that would run during the quarter.
• Paying subscriber count rising remains the value proposition in owning shares of ARLO. Quarterly adds closer to what ARLO has been achieving would be a positive for the stock. 

• Despite re-openings in China, Nu Skin’s operations remain exposed to cyclical risks.
• The company’s net margins are poor, and earnings crash risk is a regular feature.
• The stock’s technical features imply that it could rebound in 2023, but it presents an isolated case with little substance in the broader context.

• SPX macro top and sell call from 4,150 targets 3,300/200 where a base and low is expected ahead of a more bullish 2H23. 
• Cycle: Equity weak bias into January 8 if not closer to the 18th. From January 20 onwards we see a tactical rally cycle unfolding (still within the more bearish Q1 framework).
• Asian positioning outlined with charts and details to follow once markets come online.

• Norfolk Southern is a rail transport major, known to offer its services in the Southeast, East and Midwest U.S.
• The company’s recent financial performance has been decent and the management has shown its commitment to productivity and efficiency by significantly improving its operating ratio.
• They are actively qualifying conductors, carrying out and fine-tuning their TOP|SPG operating strategy, and bolstering their leadership group and operations.

• This is our first report on Hormel Foods Corporation, one of the leading protein food companies across the globe.
• Hormel achieved another quarter of growth in organic sales led by its solid performances from its food service businesses and its center store grocery portfolio.
• In the quarter, Hormel saw growth from its food and ethnic forward portfolios.

• We double down on New Relic stock as we see operational improvement and a clear path to non-GAAP profitability. A strong balance sheet will help to survive an economic downturn.
• The company will repay 0.5% senior convertible notes in 2023 and is not interested in diluting existing shareholders. New Relic ended 2QFY23 with $833M in cash and cash equivalents.
• American activist investor Jana Partners held ~3.2M New Relic shares as of Nov-22. New Relic Inc (NEWR US)  shares underperformed in 2022, with shares down ~49%

• Wayfair is a renowned e-commerce platform providing a wide variety of products such as furniture, decor, housewares, and home improvement offerings.
• Wayfair has seen strong momentum in CastleGate as it drives various advantages for suppliers, lower retail prices because of ship cost savings, reduced damage rates, better visibility on sites, and quicker conversion via quick delivery.
• The company has been driving operational cost savings, which could reduce the cost of goods.

• This is our first report on International Paper Company, one of the largest producers of renewable fiber-based industrial packaging and pulp products.
• It has been a challenging and dynamic environment for International Paper and the company experienced a sharp decline in the demand for its Industrial Packaging segment and higher cost headwinds significant from higher distribution and energy costs.
• Operating margins were lower because of significant macro headwinds and International Paper saw a decline across all the end-use segments.

• Liquidity is deeply misunderstood in crypto markets. Specifically, the metric “market depth”. 
• Unless you are a trader, it can be hard to wrap your head around the meaning of “2% Bid Depth” and how it relates to the value of an asset.  
• As FTX collapsed, we took a hard look at liquidity for FTT, specifically aggregated market depth across all active markets.

• This is our first report on global healthcare giant, Viatris.
• The company had an interesting set of developments which included a strategic agreement to sell off their biosimilars business to Biocon Biologics.
• Due to the Famy Life Sciences acquisition, five more front-of-the-eye programs in diverse indications that are in Phase III or are ready for Phase III will be added.

• This is our first report on rail transport major, Norfolk Southern.
• The company delivered strong financial results in Q3 surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of Norfolk Southern Corporation with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• This is our first report on Sherwin-Williams, one of the largest distributors of paints and coatings in the U.S.
• The company had a stellar third quarter, with high teen sales growth leading to the first $6 billion sales quarter and significant sequential and year-over-year gross margin improvement which resulted in an all-around beat.
• In contrast to China’s and Europe’s persistent weakness, demand is still robust in the pro-architectural and North American industrial end sectors.

• Back on the 30 September, O2Micro International (OIIM US), an integrated circuits play, announced a definitive privatisation from management at US$5.00/ADS, a 68.9% premium to the undisturbed price. 
• An EGM will take place on the 31 January. The Offer requires shareholders representing at least two-thirds of O2Micro vote FOR. 16.9% of shares out are supportive. 
• This Offer is expected to close in the 1Q23. The IFA considers the Offer fair. 

• 10 months + since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is yet no end to the war in sight.
• The negative 2/10 spread generates quite a conviction by almost all of market participants that the world is heading into recession next year.
• We believe inflation could slow down and the on-going rate hikes may end faster than expected. Slower/smaller than expected rate hikes provide a bullish case for bond investments in 2023..

• This is our first report on Chewy, the leading pure play e-commerce company in the U.S. in the domain of pet food, pet supplies, and pet healthcare products.
• During the quarter, they announced the growth of CarePlus, their exclusive line of insurance and wellness products with Lemonade-powered plans.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• Charter Communications is one of the leading cable operators and broadband connectivity companies in the U.S.
• The company’s recent financial performance has been tepid despite consistent additions of new Internet customers throughout the year.
• They further offer the nation’s fastest Internet, WiFi, and mobile speeds when combined with WiFi, all while saving consumers thousands of dollars a year or serving them.

• This is our first report on Exact Sciences, a leading cancer diagnostics company.
• It has created a robust engine that will enable them to realize their goal of assisting in the eradication of cancer.
• Besides, Exact Sciences can support new cancer tests with a small incremental investment due to their well-known test, smart patient navigation, electronic ordering and resultant platform, extensive lab capabilities, and strong payer partnerships.

• Amazon’s pursuit of robotic vacuum manufacturer iRobot is being scrutinized by the FTC,  a merger which we think the regulator will be hard pressed  to prove is harmful to competition.
• However, although unlikely, the pending ruling next month on the FTC’s unusual lawsuit against Meta’s acquisition of virtual reality start-up Within  could rewrite regulatory guidelines for vertical mergers 
• The 27% spread offers a potentially lucrative trade generating double-digit IRR even if deal completion is delayed by regulatory review, although it might be wise to entertain some  downside protection

• Sysco Corporation is one of the largest foodservice distribution companies in the U.S.
• The company’s financial performance has shown a simultaneous recovery along with the foodservice sector after the pandemic.
• Restaurant partners of the company continue to be resilient, and its travel hospitality and industry and business segment has regularly posted improvements in financial performance.

• This is our first report on Sysco Corporation, one of the largest foodservice distribution companies in the U.S.
• Sysco delivered a mixed set of results for this quarter, surpassing revenue expectations of Wall Street with continued positive momentum in its business.
• The market share gains continued in the quarter, with the company posting 1.4 times sales growth in the industry.

• This is our first report on Charter Communications, one of the largest cable operators and broadband connectivity companies in the U.S.
• The company delivered a disappointing set of results in the quarter failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
• The company also had around 4.7 million mobile lines at the end of the quarter.

• This is our first report on Cigna Corporation, a leading player in health services and insurance.
• Evernorth delivered strong top-and bottom-line results because of their innovation and affordability across pharmacy benefit services, specialty pharmacies, and Evernorth Care Solutions.
• This collaboration with Centene builds on Express Scripts’ reputation as a reliable partner and will eventually offer expansion options to offer more Evernorth Health services.

• Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
• The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
• These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.

• This is our first report on Danaher Corporation, a well-known manufacturer and provider of instruments and various other offerings to the medical, diagnostics, and environmental sectors.
• The company had a strong quarter and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
• It delivered market share gains and strong price execution amid strong foreign exchange headwinds and an inflationary environment.

• This is our first report on industrials giant, Illinois Tool Works.
• The company achieved a 13% revenue increase on the top line, with 16% organic growth from its core businesses which is a good sign.
• While the recent results were good, Illinois Tool Works is far from being immune to the potential macro problems and uncertainties ahead.

• Danaher Corporation is a renowned manufacturer and provider of instruments and various other offerings to the medical, diagnostics, and environmental sectors.
• The company has had a decent financial performance off-late and has been consistently delivering market share gains and strong price execution amid strong foreign exchange headwinds and an inflationary environment.
• Its acquisition-led growth strategy implies that it will be in regular need for debt in order to fund acquisitions.

• Illinois Tool Works is an industrials major catering to a wide variety of end markets ranging from automotive to welding and construction projects.
• The company’s financial performance has been decent despite the fact that the operating climate is still quite dynamic and challenging.
• While the recent results were good, Illinois Tool Works is far from being immune to the potential macro problems and uncertainties ahead.

• Freshworks (FRSH US)  shares underperformed in 2022, with shares down ~47% YTD versus a 33% loss on the Nasdaq Composite. US software stocks lost ~51% on average over the year. 
• Insiders keep buying shares. VC firm Accel, a 5%+ shareholder, acquired ~$50 million worth of Freshworks (FRSH US)  shares in 2H22. Strong insider buying indicates the stock could hit bottom. 
• We estimate Freshworks (FRSH US)  crossed the $500M ARR mark in 3QCY22. The company may report strong 4QCY22 results and surprise investors and analysts.

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US decreased by 1% in November 2022 to 113.5, following a decline of 0,9% in October.
• Only stock prices contributed positively to the US LEI in November.
• The labor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened—reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth.

• This is our first report on Royal Caribbean Cruises, a well-known player operating three cruise vacation brands, including Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises.
• Royal Caribbean Cruises has seen strong demand, fighting off inflation, and continues to focus on its value proposition of providing the best-quality vacations in the world.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of Royal Caribbean Cruises with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• McKesson is one of the leading U.S. healthcare distributors and operates in an oligopolistic market along with rivals, Cardinal Health and AmerisourceBergen.
• The company has continued its efforts towards improving its competitive edge in cancer and biopharma services through internal investment and acquisition.
• The Medical-Surgical business has achieved market-leading positions in the primary and extended care markets through years of deliberate investment and expansion.

• The Mosaic Company is one of the major producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients.
• The company’s business has been impacted by the ongoing inflation and supply chain issues and has been reducing its production off-late.
• Besides, the weather in the U.S. prevented spring planting, and the short planting window limited nutrient treatments.

• The crypto safe-haven narrative gained traction in the beginning of the year after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Both ruble and hryvnia trade volumes surged immediately after Russia’s invasion, boosted by record local currency devaluation and market disruptions.
• Interestingly, the increase was mainly driven by stablecoin volumes rather than BTC, with weekly Tether (USDT) volumes jumping more than five-fold in early March relative to the start of the year.

• Royal Caribbean Cruises is a renowned cruise player operating three cruise vacation brands, namely Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises.
• The company has seen a strong recovery post the pandemic and its recent results have been strong.
• The good news is that Royal Caribbean Cruises has seen strong demand, fighting off inflation, and continues to focus on its value proposition of providing the best-quality vacations in the world.

• If 2021 was the year when crypto SPACs became mainstream, 2022 was the year of what could have been.
• This week, Peter Theil-backed crypto exchange Bullish finally called it quits on its $9 billion merger with Far Peak Acquisition Corp, nearly seventeen months after announcing the transaction in July 2021.
• Bullish isn’t the only though; several large Crypto SPAC transactions, like Circle, Roxe, and eToro, have all been called off their mega-mergers this year due to regulatory hell.

• This is our first report on leading U.S. healthcare distributor, McKesson.
• The company delivered a mixed quarterly result with revenues of $70.2 billion falling short of the Wall Street consensus.
• McKesson is also extending its services to additional channels like the government, consumer, and direct-to-home sectors in response to the requirements of the patients.

• This is our first report on the Mosaic Company, one of the largest producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients.
• The company delivered a disappointing set of results in the last quarter failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
• The good news is that it did generate a sizable amount of cash flow, which enables the company to return a large amount of capital to shareholders while simultaneously continuing to invest in future growth.

• This is our first report on TJX Companies is pleased with its third-quarter performance.
• The company once more produced solid profitability and a fantastic merchandise margin.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of The TJX Companies with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• This is our first report on Albemarle Corporation, one of the largest producers of lithium, bromine, and other related specialty chemicals across the globe.
• The strong performance for its lithium segment was driven by higher volumes and higher realized pricing.
• Albemarle is realigning its core bromine and lithium businesses to energy specialties and storage and expects it to be effective next month.

• This is our first report on Cardinal Health, one of the largest wholesalers within the healthcare domain in the U.S.
• The company delivered a mixed result in the last quarter surpassing revenue expectations of Wall Street but missing out on earnings.
• Cardinal delivered higher than its expectations in its Pharma segment despite managing industry-wide inflationary headwinds.

• Cardinal Health is one of the largest wholesalers within the healthcare domain in the U.S.
• The company’s recent financial performance has been fairly decent, largely driven by its Pharma segment growth despite managing industry-wide inflationary headwinds.
• Upstream and Specialty, the company’s third-party logistics business, has been continuing its strong growth new launches.

• This is our first report on Constellation Brands, a dominant player in the international alcoholic beverage market, particularly the Mexican beer space.
• The buy rate increased in the quarter for both total wine categories and high-end beer in tracked channels.
• The beer business of the company remained well placed that continues to support the steady growth of the brands.

• Constellation Brands is a major player in the international alcoholic beverage market, particularly the Mexican beer space.
• The beer business of the company is well placed that continues to support the steady growth of the brands.
• Among other developments, Constellation Brands has recently reached a pact with The Wine Growth to divest a portion of the company’s premium and mainstream wine portfolio.

• This is our first report on CSX, one of the largest providers of rail-based freight transportation services in the United States.
• Their competitive advantages should encourage more CSX rail shipping from their clients, but they still need to concentrate on making this happen.
• We also have a dedicated analysis of the company’s Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.

• CSX Corporation is one of the largest providers of rail-based freight transportation services in the United States.
• The company’s services include not only traditional rail service and transport of intermodal containers and trailers but also rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations.
• Their competitive advantages should encourage more CSX rail shipping from their clients, but they still need to concentrate on making this happen.

• Dollar General Corporation is a major discount retailer operating in the U.S.
• The company’s business has been impacted by inflation and the ongoing supply chain issues but it has managed a decent comp sales growth and market share growth of both consumable and non-consumable product sales in recent results.
• This includes challenges within the company’s supply chain, higher inventory shrink and damages, sales mix pressures, and everything that impacted gross margin.

• This is our first report on major discount retailer, Dollar General Corporation.
• Its revenue growth was led by comp sales growth and in market share of both consumable and non-consumable product sales.
• Dollar General, during the quarter, experienced significantly higher cost pressures.

• Micron yesterday announced FQ1 revenues of $4.1 billion, , down 39% sequentially and down 47% year over year.
• This was still within the forecasted range, albeit at the very low end of the scale.
• Gross margin came in at 22.9%, down approximately 17 percentage points sequentially, primarily due to lower pricing.

• China is the real pivot that could drive stocks, say investors.
• China’s economic growth could be a real pivot for stocks, they say.
• China’s economy is a key factor in the growth of the country’s economy, according to analysts.

• A DOJ investigation adds further negative sentiment to the ‘black box’ of the finance exchange.
• The DOJ investigation is being investigated by the Department of Justice, which is under investigation into the exchange exchange exchange between banks and banks.
• The investigation is expected to conclude in the coming weeks. The investigation will be conducted by the Justice Department.

• Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) will Dual Primary list on the HKEX (388 HK) by Way of Introduction and the stock is expected to start trading on 30 December.
• Following the changes to the handling of Dual-Primary-listed companies, Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) should be added to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March rebalance.
• Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) should also be added to the HSCI at the March rebalance and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect late July/ early August.

• We think that a ~40% spread overstates the risk of this deal not moving to completion. 
• The horizontal integration aspects of this transaction can be remedied, but this is a largely vertical merger transaction which regulators may struggle to prove will lead to monopolistic behavior.
• Even if the  ICE merger is ultimately blocked,  BKI has other supporting factors that could drive upside – an attractive valuation and a potential revival of interest from other parties 

• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  
• MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.
• Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.

• This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
• The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
• Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

• Micron Technology, Inc. reported fiscal Q1 2023 earnings and announced cost-cutting measures.
• Macroeconomic trends are still a drag, according to the company.
• The company also announced cost cutting measures for the next year’s fiscal year.

Is there still hope for Crypto in 2023? In the next webinar, we speak with Insight Provider Edward Wu on just that, as he shares with us the landscape of the Crypto industry in 2023. From the problems with the current crypto industry, to Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, Edward will share with us his thoughts in this next episode of our Webinar Wednesdays. Have any burning questions about Crypto, DeFi trading or Ethereum Layer 2 solutions? Get them answered in the live Q&A that will conclude the session. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 4 January 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Edward Wu is an experienced financial professional with strong research experience in macroeconomics, credit as well as corporate banking. He is a true believer in the future of Crypto/DeFi and foresee widely adoption of tokenization of real-world assets. He is currently actively researching in the crypto field, mainly focused on DeFi, DAO governance, and tokenomic design.

• Some people think of crypto as purely an investment opportunity. A highly volatile asset class that comes with risk, but eventually the returns will be worth it.
• However, this perception is somewhat naive, as it ignores one of crypto’s biggest use cases: financial freedom.
• The concept of financial freedom is hard to grasp for the privileged of us living in Europe or the US – despite record levels of inflation, we are not financially oppressed, and we can bank on our savings being relatively intact next year.

• Splunk is stronger with Q3 earnings and guidance. The company is shadowed by takeover talk.
• The company has a strong cloud market make it a buy. The firm is shadowing by takeover talks.
• The firm has been in the news for more than two years.