United States

• Broadcom delivered a strong result in the last quarter with revenues growing 21% year-on-year, surpassing Wall Street expectations.
• This growth was driven by the company’s strong partnerships and increased R&D investments that enabled accelerated adoption of its new-generation technologies.
• In the quarter, semiconductor solution revenue and infrastructure software revenue grew.

• Juniper’s stock has seen good upward momentum with its results around the corner.
• The company had delivered better-than-expected results in the last quarter with its total revenues as well as earnings exceeding Wall Street expectations.
• The cloud business of Juniper also delivered solid quarterly result with revenue growth.

• GoDaddy delivered a mixed set of results for the last quarter.
• However, it did manage an earnings beat which was largely a result of the robust consumer retention.
• This quarter, GoDaddy launched free SSL on almost all innovative web hosting plans in its major markets.

• Exxon Mobil continues to defy gravity even as markets rolled over in 2022.
• There are better alternatives for those looking for passive income streams, but shareholders should be prepared for more turbulence ahead, according to the author.
• Exxon Mobil’s long-term success is still optimistic on the long- term success of the company.

• SunPower delivered an all-around beat in the last quarter as the value of the company’s storage and solar systems continues to rise with the rise in utility rates.
• Consumer demand in the quarter continues to be quite strong and it added 23,1000 new customers this quarter which displays a persistent level of robust consumer demand for residential solar, particularly SunPower.
• We provide the stock of SunPower with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a revision in the target price.

• Amidst all of the De-SPAC Bankruptcies, liquidity issues, and frauds, it’s been hard for investors to pinpoint strong, established businesses that deliver consistent returns.
• In fact, only a handful of companies in the three years since SPACs became a popular vehicle retained or saw their valuation increase.
• So it’s good to see businesses like jewelry wholesaler Quality Gold to debut through a SPAC deal.

• Paramount had a disappointing set of results in the last quarter as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The company maintained its strength in TV, expanded in cinema, and benefitted from the worldwide surge in streaming during the third quarter.
• Among major updates, Walmart chose Paramount+ when looking to add a streaming service to its Walmart+ package.

• NEXTracker (NXT US) , a leading solar tracker and software solutions provider for utility-scale and distributed generation projects, filed for an IPO.
• According to Crunchbase, NEXTracker (NXT US)  has raised ~$548M in funding over four rounds, and investors include Sigma Partners, DBL Partners, SJF Ventures, and American private equity firm TPG.
• We have a favorable view of the upcoming Nextracker IPO and see upside potential to the last round valuation of ~$3B, when the company announced a strategic investment from TPG. 

• Teladoc Health delivered a decent result for the last quarter and managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• Teladoc concluded the quarter with a total US paid membership of 57.8 million members, an increase of 1.2 million members over the second quarter, driven by a combination of new virtual care client onboardings and population expansions within current clients.
• The management conducted their client advisory panel with representatives from 30 health plans, sizable employers, and health systems in attendance.

• Sonos delivered a decent performance in the last quarter with revenue growth beyond market expectations and narrower-than-expected losses despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
• In the last quarter, installer solutions revenue grew, driven by robust demand for the company’s Port and Amp products in spite of persistent supply challenges.
• Sonos continues to see strong performance in its installer solutions channel in spite of slowing house activity in the United States.

• In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
• We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
• After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.

• Sunrun delivered strong results in the last quarter as it continued expanding net subscriber value and delivering cost efficiency.
• During the quarter, Lunar Energy unveiled the clean energy company where Sunrun invested for accelerating whole-home electrification.
• Ford’s partnership with Sunrun continues to deliver strong results.

• ADP had a great start to fiscal 2023 and delivered an all-around beat in its last result.
• The company overcame elevated expense growth over the first quarter of last year and ongoing investments in the business by delivering 30 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion.
• In contrast, the start of bookings growth in the foreign business was slower than the management had anticipated.

• ON Semiconductor Corporation delivered another all-around beat in its last result.
• The company is a well-known provider of intelligent sensing and power solutions and has established a good market position within its niche in the semiconductor market.
• More and more companies are considering ON Semiconductors as their long-term strategic partners as the company walks according to an amazing foresight.

• Appian Corp delivered a mixed result in the last quarter with revenues exceeding Wall Street expectations largely driven by the growth in cloud subscription revenue.
• In every category, the revenue growth is healthy and setting records in the quarter.
• While a large part of the tech industry has been retrenching, Appian went ahead and hired 221 employees in the last quarter.

• United Airlines faced a challenging operating environment during the last quarter but managed to deliver an all-around beat.
• Although the company had high load factors, it quickly accommodated thousands more passengers when other airlines’ flights were cancelled.
• Domestic capacity decreased by 8%, while international capacity decreased by 12%.

• Enphase delivered solid results for the past quarter driven largely by solid revenues through microinverters which helped them produce an all-around beat.
• Enphase Energy has recently announced the launch of IQ8 Microinverters in the Netherlands and France, thereby making the foremost expansion into the international markets for this product.
• In the U.S., the microinverter channel inventory has been very healthy, and its storage channel inventory was slightly elevated because of longer installation times.

• Price Movements: BTC gained another 10% this week despite news that Genesis had filed for bankruptcy, with a reported $5bn in liabilities.
• Market Liquidity: Trade volume on the largest Asia-based exchanges fell to multi-year lows amid a tough regulatory environment in the region. 
• Derivatives: BTC open interest has dropped 25% as a short squeeze hits derivatives traders.

• Sentiment is very important when it comes to trading any financial asset. In terms of commodities, Goldman Sachs seems to be still a bit too optimistic for me.
• This year has started with a pullback in prices driven by warm weather shock and rising interest rates, Jeff Currie, the head of commodities at the investment bank, said at a presentation in London on Monday.
• But demand in China starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a “Goldilocks” moment for rising prices, he said. 

• On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Ethereum (XETUSD).
• We determined that Ethereum at 1400.813 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 19.6% upswing to 1675.58. 
• Ethereum achieved our initial target at 1675.58 (+19.6%) on 21 January 2023.

• Our models suggest that we should see further weakness in the USD in the coming months.
• Expected interest rate divergence (EU/US) would, all else equal, strengthen the Euro relative to the Dollar.
• Another source of dollar weakness can be attributed to the rise in the Chinese credit impulse.

• Campbell Soup is off to a good start to the fiscal year and delivered an all-around beat.
• Meals & beverages delivered a strong performance, and there is growth in key brands, particularly RTS (Ready-To-Serve) soups, Mexican sauces, and Italian soup, well-outpaced the growth.
• We provide the stock of Campbell Soup with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

• Cirrus delivered a decent quarterly result with an all-around beat, driven by greater smartphone unit volumes linked to its customers’ new product launches, resulting in revenue over the high end of its target range.
• Furthermore, with the development of Cirrus’ 22-nm codec, audio sensing and other signal processing use cases will benefit from increased performance and power efficiency.
• The management has been working with several customers to design their first amplifier created especially for this market.

• Columbia Sportswear delivered a mixed set of third-quarter results as it failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street given the economic, geopolitical, and supply chain challenges.
• Consumer challenges are being solved by innovations like Omni-Heat Infinity and the recently unveiled Omni-Heat Helix.
• The patent-pending Omni-Heat Helix from Columbia uses highly effective insulation cells to optimize warmth while ensuring breathability.

• Adobe managed a decent result in the last quarter meeting the revenue expectations of Wall Street and managing an earnings beat.
• The company delivered 15% growth in the top-line for the 2022 fiscal with $17.61 billion in revenue.
• We remain confident in their long-term strategies and give Adobe a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

• Oracle had a strong quarter and saw its revenue increase by 25%.
• Even with Cerner excluded, total revenue increased by 9% in constant currency, exceeding Q1 and surpassing revenue from the same period last year.
• Oracle’s liquidity is also solid as it held over $7.4 billion in cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter.

• Plug Power delivered another below par result in the quarter, failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
• The management claims that its fully developed green hydrogen platform has the potential to make it profitable.
• In the hydrogen and fuel cell industries, Plug Power has a first-mover advantage which drives investor optimism.

• Cummins delivered a mixed set of results for the quarter, surpassing the revenue expectations of Wall Street but missing out on earnings.
• Also, through its subsidiary Meritor, Cummins announced the completion of its acquisition of the commercial vehicles business of Siemens.
• Demand for the products of the company remained quite strong across its key regions and markets, which resulted in strong revenue in this quarter.

• In six years, stablecoins have grown from making up just 1.5% of BTC trade volume relative to fiat currencies such as the Dollar or Euro, to more than 87%.
• This has been matched with an explosion in market capitalization for the three largest centralized stablecoins: Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and Binance USD (BUSD).
• The three had a combined market cap of $10bn in May 2020, the start of DeFi Summer.

• Goldman Sachs’ business model is not aligned to benefit from an elevated interest rate environment.
• The bank’s trading segment could pivot, but Goldman’s investment banking prospects remain gloomy.
• The firm’s stock presents reasonable valuation and dividend metrics, but they might not be enough to convince investors, analysts say.

• Netflix is now up 50% from its lows on hope that advertising and paid sharing drive a revenue reacceleration and multiple rerating. Part B has happened.
• Advertising uptake will be slow. But consensus has 55M incremental ad-subs (20% of the total) and $8B in revenue assumed in 2025! 
• Netflix intends on keeping content spending flat for the next few years, raising the importance of its hit rate – which has not been Netflix’s forte.

• Softening macroeconomic circumstances in the Eurozone and cooling inflation in the U.S. could reignite demand.
• China’s reopening might smooth supply chains.
• Ford Motor Company’s EU market share is expanding, and its product-driven approach has sustained customer loyalty in North America.

• IPG Photonics delivered a mixed result in the last quarter, as it failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues but managed an earnings beat.
• Sales in high-power cutting applications suffered from a decline in general industrial demand in China and Europe.
• As this business required extra investment and was noncore to IPG, the management announced they would sell it to Lumentum.

• This is our first report on insurance behemoth, MetLife.
• The company’s business has been negatively impacted by various macroeconomic trends such as the equity market falling, the interest rate rise, and the rising probability of a recession.
• However, MetLife continued to execute its Next Horizon Strategy which helps show some resilience in uncertainty.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported preliminary operational results for FY22. Consolidated silver and gold production of 18.5Moz and 552.5koz were within the earlier guidance ranges (previously revised for silver). PAAS continues to progress its recently announced plan of arrangement to buy all non-Canadian assets of Yamana Gold. Shareholder votes for both companies are scheduled for 31 January, while the leading proxy advisors ISS and Glass Lewis have recommended PAAS shareholders to vote in favor of the proposed share issue to acquire all outstanding Yamana shares. We put our forecasts and valuation of PAAS under review pending upcoming shareholder approvals of the deal, which we believe could be an important catalyst for the stock.

• TransDigm managed to deliver yet another all-around beat in the recent result.
• Their value generation process heavily relies on their capital structure and allocations and has worked well in the post Covid environment.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Despite the world economy slowing down in the third quarter, particularly outside the U.S., UPS managed an all-around beat.
• The execution of their customer-first, people-led, innovation-driven strategy has fundamentally improved many parts of their business, resulting in stronger operating margins.
• In addition, they finished the first phase of their smart package, smart facility implementation, enabling RFID label technology in 101 buildings.

• Heico had another successful quarter and managed an all-around beat driven by record performance within the Flight Support Group.
• The Flight Support Group’s operating income and net sales have increased sequentially.
• Heico’s ETG Group finalized the acquisition of TRAD Tests & Radiations, a pioneer in the extremely specialized field of radiation engineering.

• The crypto lending market has been decimated with casualties from both lenders and borrowers after the FTX fallout and credit crisis. 
• Most centralized lenders have been annihilated while DeFi platforms withstood the shock. The demand for lending has cratered and this will test the viability of existing platforms given lower volumes.
• However, we will likely see new platforms emerge that have the necessary lending, trading and risk management expertise from traditional finance that could propel further institutional participation in crypto. 

• ZaynFi, a stablecoin yield optimiser on BNB Chain, has announced a US$600,000 funding led by Cur8 Capital, the venture investing arm of UK-based Islamic Finance Guru.
• Started by Syakir Hashim and Aziz Zainuddin, ZaynFi is a DeFi protocol that helps users stake stablecoins safely and simply for top-of-the-range returns on the Binance Chain.
• According to the company, it helps users stake into the best liquidity pools across popular decentralised exchanges, enabling trades to happen while earning trading fees and rewards.

• ACF identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb)and best-in-class gold asset.
• Sb: Proven & Probable Reserves 148 Mlbs at 0.06% in 104 Mt.
• Au: Proven & Probable Reserves at 4.8 Moz gold (Au) @ 1.43 g/t.

• ChatGPT is a mind boggling advancement in AI-human communication. I recommend EVERY reader of this insight to try out this service.
• This insight on ChatGPT has three parts: First, I discuss the basics of ChatGPT and valuations. Second, I provide 13 examples of questions or requests that I made to ChatGPT.
• Third, I discuss some key investment opportunities that could capitalize on all the “buzz” surrounding ChatGPT at this moment. 

• On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Bitcoin (XBTUSD).
• We determined that Bitcoin at 18281 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 17.4% upswing to 21469.50.
• •Bitcoin achieved our initial target at 21469.50 (+17.4%) on 17 January 2023.

• Visa continues to outperform the market and fully capitalize on the prolonged business cycle.
• The company’s share price appears fairly valued both relative to peers and to its historical business fundamentals, according to the company’s stock price.
• The share price seems fairly valued and to the historical business fundamental, says the company.

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s quantitative operating features are a mess, with its EBITDA margin, inventory turnover, and NOPAT all in decline.
• Yet, we might witness a slowdown in 2023 as corporate earnings could stagnate.
• The stock provides a desirable dividend, but its price return prospects are glum.

• The tender offer of a month ago has helped reduce the selling pressure on the shares of HHC and is bringing attention to the underlying asset value of the business
• HHC’s MPCs have attracted more people causing the MPCs to reach optimal levels to sustain cash flow generation. 
• HHC’s ability to grow cash flow to reinvest into its MPCs should lead to greater earnings growth over the long-term. 

• Manchester United are arguably the biggest European football brand on the planet.
• So when they signed a deal in excess of £20m per year with layer 1 blockchain solution Tezos, eyebrows were raised.
• Mainly due to the bad reputation Web3 has within football generally.

• Adjusted our SPX resistance level given overshoots with a focus on SPX futures trendline at 4,080 and price pivot at 4,100.
• We will take this week to measure overbought conditions and sentiment. Near term upside risk to SPX trendline that defines the LT trend.
• We have not given up on our macro bear cycle as long as trendline caps. Fine tuning top signals is the chore at hand.

• DCG’s subsidiary Genesis is likely to become the next insolvent crypto lender,  market fears its failure will lead to the dissolving of Grayscale, which held 3% of bitcoin’s total supply;
• Grayscale is a profitable business with $200 million annual fee income from the GBTC trust, DCG or any new buyer of Grayscale has no intention to dissolve the cash cow;
• Even if Grayscale dissolve, it won’t cause another crash as only $1 billion value of bitcoin may be dumped into the market, only 3.3% of bitcoin daily trading volume;

• Price Movements: Bullish sentiment has returned to crypto, with BTC up 20% over the past week.
• Market Liquidity: Binance.US’s market share relative to other U.S. exchanges climbed to 15%, a marked increase after dropping to 6% post-FTX.  
• Derivatives: BTC open interest fell sharply after a short squeeze caused millions in liquidations.

• This is our first report on Stanley Black & Decker, one of the largest global manufacturers of tools and engineering systems catering to a wide variety of industries.
• The company delivered an all-around beat in its last result and has been making significant progress toward narrowing its focus and overhauling its supply chain in recent times.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of Stanley Black & Decker with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• Commodity trading houses have shown a stunning performance since 2020.
• So far, there are only a few arguments for why this should change in the near future.
• But also precious metals miners are shining – nevertheless, they have quite some performance to pick up compared to other miners as well as the broad commodity market.

• This is our first report on Fastenal, a major wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies.
• The company delivered a strong performance in the last quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of Fastenal Company with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• Stanley Black & Decker one of the largest providers of tools and engineering systems across the world and caters to a wide variety of industries.
• The company has seen significant progress toward narrowing its focus and overhauling its supply chain in recent times.
• We also have a dedicated analysis of the company’s Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.