United States

Oracle’s strategy is being acknowledged by one of its major peers – Salesforce.
Oracle does not appear among the top three cloud infrastructure players, but it doesn’t need to.
Oracle is expected to deliver another strong quarter, investors should remain focused on the long-term positioning of the business.

Company Appears to Be Back in Growth Mode in 2023 After a Challenging 2022

Gaia reported 4Q22 revenues of $19.6 million versus $20.8 million in 4Q21, and 2022 revenues of $82.0 million versus $79.6 million in 2021.
Given the small Yoga International acquisition in December 2021, this implies some revenue contraction in the core business for 2022.
Despite the top-line challenge, net income was slightly positive for the year after adjusting for one-time legal fees and the anticipated SEC settlement accrual, which confirms the resilience of Gaia’s financial model.

HNI Announces Acquisition of Kimball International; Focus on Strategic and Cultural Alignment

Before market open on March 8, HNI announced the acquisition of Kimball International (NASDAQ: KBAL), a smaller competitor of HNI’s Workplace Furnishings segment.
HNI will pay about $485 million, consisting of cash ($9/KBAL share), stock (0.1301 HNI/KBAL share), and ~$46 million in KBAL net debt.
We see the deal as an excellent fit on strategic and cultural levels.

Zebra Technologies: Improved Offerings For Industrial Automation & Other Drivers

Zebra Technologies had a strong finish to the year, with profitability and sales near the high end of the outlook of the company and an all-around beat in the fourth quarter.
Latin America sales increased with strong growth in Mexico and Brazil.
However, due to an uncertain microenvironment, Zebra Technologies continue to see elongated sales cycles and softening of demand.

Working to Make Batteries Safer and More Efficient

Multiple solutions for the growing problem of battery safety.
META is developing two technologies that can make lithium-ion batteries safer and reduce material needs to lower weight and increase range.
We highlight META’s NPORE® and NCORE™ technologies on the following pages.

Transformed Fulfillment Model Driving Results

DistributionNOW is reaping the rewards of the steps management began taking a couple of years ago to transform its fulfillment model.
A client-focused global technical sales force aims to make DistributionNOW a strategic partner with customers to help them manage their energy supply chain.
The fulfillment model, if built around Supercenters, combines multiple business lines into a single location, making it easier to work with both suppliers and customers.

Perpetua Resources Corp (PPTA) Update Note Filling the US Critical Minerals Supply Gap 08032023

By ACF Equity Research

Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) is an Idaho based (Stibnite jurisdiction), gold-antimony-silver (Au-Sb-Ag) junior explorer/producer.
ACF is releasing a aluation increase for PPTA based on milestones achieved since our initiation note. ACF identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb) and best-in-class gold asset.
PPTA is an ESG leader amongst junior miners. PPTA holds a unique antimony (Sb) reserve in the US and is positioned to be the only domestically mined source of Sb.

Guidewire Software: Major Drivers

Guidewire Software is delivered a mixed set of results in the recent quarter with revenues above Wall Street expectations.
Both ARR and subscription revenue and particularly subscription and support gross margin, finished ahead of the expectations of the management.
In the quarter, Guidewire Software executed several new InsuranceSuite production deployments on the Guidewire Cloud Platform, including DEFINITY Insurance.

ARLO: Profitability Back in View

ARLO initiated a new marketing strategy based on price and it seems consumers have responded well in an otherwise tough market backdrop.
The sell through led to ARLO growing the number of paid subscribers more than we were expecting, and on pace to surpass 2 million paid subscribers in first quarter 2023
The revenue achieved in the fourth quarter was approximately $3 million higher than the top end of the guidance range ARLO had previously provided

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Mar 08

Daily Brief United States: GrafTech International Ltd, S&P 500, Interpublic Group Of Companies, Ncr Corporation, PTC Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Ringcentral Inc Class A, Southwest Airlines Co, Steel Dynamics, Williams Cos and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Graftech: Deleveraging Story Moves Out Even Further / Dead Money
Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals
The Interpublic Group of Companies Inc.: Major Drivers
NCR Corporation: Major Drivers
PTC Inc.: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (03/23)
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Major Drivers
RingCentral Inc.: Major Drivers
Southwest Airlines Co.: Major Drivers
Steel Dynamics Inc.: Major Drivers
The Williams Companies Inc.: Major Drivers

Graftech: Deleveraging Story Moves Out Even Further / Dead Money

By Sameer Taneja

GrafTech International Ltd (EAF US) results for Q4 2022 were worse than expected, and guidance for volumes down 50% in H1 2023e was shocking.
In summary, our intrinsic value was too aggressive, and there was a low margin of safety on the investment. Constant execution issues in a favorable environment didn’t help our cause.
The stock isn’t as cheap when trading at 11.1x/9.5x FY23e/FY24e. The deleveraging story now gets pushed out to the end of FY25. The investment is dead money for two years.

Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

By Joe Jasper

SPX is holding above its 200-day MA/3940 coinciding with its prior downtrend from 2022 near 3915; 3915-3940 remains critical support, and is the gateway to a much deeper pullback.
Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is breaking back above $297, another important line in the sand for us.
The SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500.

The Interpublic Group of Companies Inc.: Major Drivers

The Interpublic Group of Companies had a successful year and ended it on a positive note with an all-around beat.
Its organic net revenue increase for the fourth quarter was 3.8%, bringing the three-year growth performance to 9.7%.
IPG Mediabrands’ double-digit growth was the main driver of the 5% organic growth in Media, Data & Engagement Solutions.

NCR Corporation: Major Drivers

NCR Corporation ended 2022 with a mixed result, surpassing the revenue expectations of Wall Street on account of a healthy business environment and robust demand.
NCR achieved overall revenue growth of 13%.
Besides that, they continue to see significant demand in the hotel sector from both their business and SMB clients.

PTC Inc.: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (03/23)

PTC produced a mixed set of results for the first quarter of fiscal 2023.
The 14% organic ARR growth was followed by the additional point of inorganic growth from Codebeamer.
They achieved this so rapidly by utilizing Windchill+’s out-of-the-box functionality, which PTC provided to the user as a secure preconfigured service.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Major Drivers

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals delivered impressive fourth-quarter results with revenues as well as earnings being well above analyst expectations.
These initiatives position Regeneron for a potential U.S. launch in late August this year.
We give Regeneron Pharmaceuticals a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

RingCentral Inc.: Major Drivers

RingCentral delivered a mixed set of results and failed to meet the revenue expectations of analysts given the challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
Given the importance of privacy and security to their consumers, management intends to keep investing in these areas to maintain their position.
Furthermore, the company started a new collaboration with AWS to deliver technologies and ideas that enhance corporate communications for today’s hybrid workforce.

Southwest Airlines Co.: Major Drivers

Southwest Airlines had a disastrous quarter and failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street while continuing to face a variety of new difficulties.
Also, consumer refunds and reimbursements continue to be a top priority as they remain laser-focused on their clients and future plans.
Although disappointing, Southwest Airlines anticipates another loss in Q1 of this year due to a drag on revenue from the operational disruption.

Steel Dynamics Inc.: Major Drivers

Steel Dynamics had a strong quarter, generating sales, earnings, and cash flow above market expectations.
Sinton is demonstrating considerable operating improvement and has a clear path to profitability in the second quarter of 2023.
While metal spreads continue to widen due to stable product pricing and decreased steel input costs, steel fabrication businesses had a solid quarterly operating income of $682 million.

The Williams Companies Inc.: Major Drivers

Williams reported a solid quarter and managed an all-around beat driven by strong performance across its core businesses and JV upstream operations.
Although operating and maintenance expenditures increased, primarily due to more frequent maintenance tasks, the company is still on track to meet its goals.
This is an important step towards expanding the company’s core regulated utility business.

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Mar 07

Daily Brief United States: International Business Machines, Diageo PLC, IDEXX Laboratories, NFT, SolarEdge Technologies Inc, Bitcoin Pro, Valero Energy, Enterprise Products Partners, Natural Gas and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) – TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing
Diageo: A Rare Gift From Mr. Market
IDEXX Laboratories Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers
Sporting Crypto – 6th March 2023: Is AR the New Meta?
SolarEdge Technologies Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Acquisition of Hark Systems & Other Drivers
The Future of Fiat On-Ramps
Valero Energy: Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (02/23)
Enterprise Product Partners: Major Drivers
US Large-Sized Farms Increase – Due to Input Cost Pressure // The Fall of The Petrodollar

International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) – TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing

By David Coloretti, CMT

IBM US peaked at 153.21 in December 2022 and has declined more than 15% in the subsequent 12 weeks.
Last week’s low of 127.71 was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and this new 4 month low was quick to fail and reverse.
Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-7% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Diageo: A Rare Gift From Mr. Market

Diageo’s share price has been underperforming for far too long due to outside factors that have little to do with the business itself.
The premium brand portfolio in combination with the well-executed acquisition strategy creates a unique opportunity.
The company is well-positioned to retain and even improve its industry-leading margins.

IDEXX Laboratories Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

IDEXX had a strong finish to the year, reflected in the company’s all-around beat in the last quarter.
Its revenues increased organically, driven by organic gains in CAG Diagnostic and strong growth in its water and software businesses.
Organic revenue growth in the quarter was supported by solid organic growth across its major business segments and growth in diagnostic imaging and veterinary software revenues.

Sporting Crypto – 6th March 2023: Is AR the New Meta?

By Sporting Crypto

Through my work and writing, I’ve been thinking more and more about an area that I’m not an expert in: gaming.
And when we combine the word ‘Gaming’ with ‘Web3’ — there is a buzz and sense of excitement from most.
Specifically, it’s all the rage when people talk about NFTs and the future of gaming.

SolarEdge Technologies Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Acquisition of Hark Systems & Other Drivers

SolarEdge Technologies reported a strong quarter with revenues of $890 million in revenues and an all-around beat.
The U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, the U.K., and France all had noteworthy growth year over year.
We initiate coverage on SolarEdge Technologies with a ‘Hold’ rating.

The Future of Fiat On-Ramps

By Kaiko

Silvergate is in deep trouble. On March 1, the “crypto bank” revealed in a regulatory filing that it could soon be “less than well capitalized.”
The news prompted Coinbase, Paxos, Galaxy Digital and a host of other large crypto enterprises to drop Silvergate as a banking partner. Why does this matter?
The “fiat problem” has long plagued crypto markets: to buy bitcoin, you at some point need to interact with the traditional banking system.

Valero Energy: Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (02/23)

Valero had a solid year-end, with refineries running at 97% of their capacity in a positive refining margin situation.
Besides, significantly discounted sour crude oils and fuel oils helped its refinery.
High natural gas costs in Europe also encouraged refiners to process sweet crude oils rather than sour crude oils, placing additional pressure on sour crude oils.

Enterprise Product Partners: Major Drivers

Enterprise Product Partners delivered a mixed set of results in the quarter.
Enterprise moved a record 11.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day which helped it deliver an all-around beat.
They believe that a wide gas-to-crude differential could result in a considerable cost advantage for American petrochemicals globally.

US Large-Sized Farms Increase – Due to Input Cost Pressure // The Fall of The Petrodollar

By The Commodity Report

US Large-Sized Farms Increase – Due to Input Cost Pressure According to the Farms and Land in Farms Report by the USDA, the largest farms in the US that had sales of $1 million or more, now operate almost 26% of the country’s farmland.
The farms in this sales class have increased in size, while farms in every other sales class have either remained the same size or decreased.
According to the Farms and Land in Farms Report by the USDA, the largest farms in the US that had sales of $1 million or more, now operate almost 26% of the country’s farmland.

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Mar 06

Daily Brief United States: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

EEM Reaction Rise

EEM Reaction Rise

By Thomas Schroeder

EEM stage is set for a rise from 38.20/37.80 but will find it hard to get back above 42. Intermediate risk to 36.50 from which point we are more constructive.
USD and yield pullbacks are primary inputs amid weak EEM buy volume. Bull yield wedge breakout on the back of high degree bull divergence in yield and the USD.
DXY trendline support turn. USD rise has not been aggressive and needs yield to clear 4.25% with a 4.70% target. Risk of a dual yield top exists.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief United States: Broadcom Limited, Life360 Inc, Abbott Laboratories, Plug Power Inc, Veeva Systems Inc Class A, Las Vegas Sands, Culp Inc, Lowe’s Companies Inc, Merck & Co Inc., Okta Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Broadcom’s Strong Quarterly Results In The Light Of Its Acquisition-Led Strategy
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes
Abbott Laboratories: Major Drivers
Plug Power Inc.: Major Drivers
Veeva Systems Inc.: Major Drivers
Las Vegas Sands Corp: Major Drivers
Gale-Force Headwinds Rage Against Culp Top Line and Profits
Lowe’s Companies Inc.: Collaboration With Klein Tools & Other Drivers
Merck & Co. Inc.: Licensing Agreement With Kelun Biotech & Other Drivers
Okta Inc.: Major Drivers

Broadcom’s Strong Quarterly Results In The Light Of Its Acquisition-Led Strategy

Broadcom remains as one of the best-positioned semiconductors stocks, but lower topline growth is to be expected going forward.
Broadcom has so far done a great job at expanding its product and service offerings through M&A deals.
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) has just reported yet another strong fiscal Q1 2023 quarter, marked by high top and bottom line growth.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

By Brian Freitas

There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.

Abbott Laboratories: Major Drivers

Abbott saw another highly successful quarter and managed an all-around beat as routine testing trends and hospital-based procedures continued to improve progressively in several areas.
In the quarter, the sales growth was impacted negatively by a year-over-year decline in the Covid test sales.
With the recovery of the manufacturing brand, production of its non-WIC brands has increased.

Plug Power Inc.: Major Drivers

Plug Power’s performance in the quarter was very disappointing as it failed to meet the revenue expectations of analysts.
The company reported wider than expected losses and it continues to deliver weak results adversely affecting its market sentiment.
Plug electrolyzers and cryogenic equipment is anticipated to be used in their operations to create and deliver liquid hydrogen via Plug trailers.

Veeva Systems Inc.: Major Drivers

Veeva Systems finished the year on a strong note with both, its revenues as well as earnings exceeding the expectations of analysts as well as the management.
The management claims that it was a watershed year for clinical data management, with significant momentum in emergent areas like Safety, Link, and Compass.
We give Veeva Systems a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Las Vegas Sands Corp: Major Drivers

Las Vegas Sands delivered a highly disappointing result as it failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
The track record in the non-gaming, scale, and diversity makes Las Vegas Sands uniquely position to cater to all the segments of the market.
We provide the stock of Las Vegas Sands with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Gale-Force Headwinds Rage Against Culp Top Line and Profits

After the close Wednesday, Culp reported a 3QFY23 GAAP EPS loss of $0.73 on sales of $52.5 million, both missing our estimates (loss of $0.49, sales of $57 million) and consensus (loss of $0.62 and $54.9 million).
Adjusted for a restructuring charge, the EPS loss was $0.67.
Culp continues to confront weak markets in both the Mattress Fabrics (CHF) and Upholstery Fabrics (CUF) segments.

Lowe’s Companies Inc.: Collaboration With Klein Tools & Other Drivers

Lowe’s Companies delivered a mixed set of results in the fourth quarter.
Another notable category, Paint, saw strong pro-growth driven by its MVPs Pro Paint Rewards and Pro JobSIGHT delivery.
Among other updates, Lowe’s collaborated with Klein Tools to give Klein Tools a strong presence in the electrical and tool departments of Lowe’s.

Merck & Co. Inc.: Licensing Agreement With Kelun Biotech & Other Drivers

Merck has delivered a strong quarterly result to end 2022 and surpassed the analyst consensus estimates in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
The top-line performance was driven by strength across the company’s key pillars, hospitals, vaccines, and oncology, and a significant contribution from LAGEVRIO.
The animal health business of Merck delivered strong operational growth.

Okta Inc.: Major Drivers

Okta delivered a strong fourth-quarter performance which was highlighted by an all-around beat as well as a significant improvement in profitability and cash flow.
The end of the 2023 fiscal was strong, with sustained improvement in its go-to-market business performance.
In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief United States: Occidental Petroleum, Salesforce.Com Inc, Viatris, Bitcoin, Domino’s Pizza, HEICO Corp, Inter Parfums, AdTheorent, Workday Inc Class A, Assertio Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Major Drivers
Salesforce Inc.: Major Drivers
Viatris Inc.: Major Drivers
When Bond Yields Exceed 4%, UK Governments Fall
Domino’s Pizza Inc.: Major Drivers
HEICO Corporation: Precise Engineering Acquisition & Other Drivers
IPAR: 2024 in the Spotlight, Target Now $172
4Q22 Outperformance in a Tough Ad Market; Guides Growth in 2023
Workday Inc.: Major Drivers
ASRT: ASEG Guideline a Significant Positive, PT to $8

Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Major Drivers

Occidental Petroleum had a weak financial performance in the last quarter and failed to meet Wall Street expectations with respect to revenues as well as earnings.
Storm effects in the Permian and Rockies were largely countered by superior performance in the Gulf of Mexico and the Al Hosn.
While Midstream and marketing earnings were within projections, OxyChem’s performance exceeded expectations due to stronger-than-anticipated market dynamics.

Salesforce Inc.: Major Drivers

Salesforce had another strong quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
Besides, the Data cloud became their most crucial cloud, enhancing each Salesforce cloud and enhancing the automation, intelligence, and real-time of every aspect of their Customer 360.
With native integration of Tableau and Data Cloud, they recently released Tableau plus Data Cloud.

Viatris Inc.: Major Drivers

Viatris delivered a mixed set of results as it failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street but managed an earnings beat.
They dealt with intense competition for important products like Wixela and the loss of exclusivity for Miacalcin and Perforomist.
In addition, they acquired Oyster Point Pharma and Famy Life Sciences in January to create their new Viatris Eye Care division.

When Bond Yields Exceed 4%, UK Governments Fall

By Kaiko

In 2020 and 2021, investors opted for TIPS over conventional bonds, yet over the past year, they have moved the other way.
The TIPS ETF has fallen from $40bn of assets to $20bn, while the long bond ETF has doubled from $15bn to $30bn.
The loud and clear message from this shift is that investors are woefully unprepared for an inflation shock.

Domino’s Pizza Inc.: Major Drivers

Domino’s gave a mixed performance in the last quarter as its revenues were below par after facing significant challenges in the U.S.
The carryout business of the company continues to be its core strength.
In light of the permitting as well as store construction supply challenges it faced, a deceleration in growth was expected.

HEICO Corporation: Precise Engineering Acquisition & Other Drivers

Heico delivered a mixed quarter with a decent organic growth in revenues that reflects higher demand for the bulk of its commercial aircraft products and services given the ongoing recovery in commercial air travel.
Operating income for the Flight Support Group climbed by 60% to $83.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.
This acquisition is anticipated to drive the company’s growth prospects.

IPAR: 2024 in the Spotlight, Target Now $172

IPAR disclosing the sales benefit from the Lacoste license was the most notable item from the Company’s fourth quarter earnings call
IPAR had previously reported preliminary Q4 sales results making it less of a surprise as to how well the business was doing. Consumer demand for fragrances has yet to wane
In 2022 IPAR experienced growth from all regions and all its major brands. Montblanc, Jimmy Choo, Coach, and Guess grew by double-digits

4Q22 Outperformance in a Tough Ad Market; Guides Growth in 2023

4Q22 revenue of $51.8 million above high end of guidance of $50.7 million.
Despite the challenging market conditions, AdTheorent was able to keep adjusted gross profit roughly flat at 65%, down less than 1%.
The company (which has no debt) generated more cash, as a percentage of AGP, than in 2021.

Workday Inc.: Major Drivers

Workday produced strong Q4 results and delivered an all-around beat with a decent performance in key operating measures and a 22% increase in subscription revenue for the quarter and the entire fiscal year.
While Talent Optimization is Workday’s fastest-growing SKU with an attach rate on new transactions of more than 85% in fiscal year 2023, approximately 50% of all active Workday HCM customers currently use Workday Skills Cloud.
The company intends to boost margin expansion in fiscal 2024 while returning to a 20% plus subscription revenue growth when the environment recovers.

ASRT: ASEG Guideline a Significant Positive, PT to $8

ASRT could significantly benefit from a new guideline set by American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (“ASEG”) this week related to the use of indomethacin (Indocin) post ERCP surgery.
Indocin is ASRT’s largest source of revenue and nearly all the revenue from off-line use related to post ERCP surgery.
We updated our earnings model when ASRT issued preliminary fourth quarter results. We believe the ASEG guidance could lead to accelerated market expansion in coming months

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Mar 03

Daily Brief United States: Nitro Software Ltd, Booking Holdings, Adobe Systems, Texas Pacific Land Trust, Deere & Co, Ebay Inc, Ecovyst, Howard Hughes Corp, Hyatt Hotels Corp Cl A, Intuit Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Nitro Software Backs Potentia’s Offer
Booking Holdings Inc.: Major Drivers
Adobe Systems: Surprisingly Resilient
TPL: Cash Cushion
Deere & Company: New Dealer Business System & Other Drivers
eBay Inc.: Major Drivers
ECVT: Free Cash Flow Storm
HHC: The Cash Flow Story Continues
Hyatt Hotels Corporation: Dream Hotel Group Acquisition & Other Drivers
Intuit Inc.: Major Drivers

Nitro Software Backs Potentia’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

As expected, Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)‘s board has unanimously backed Potentia’s three-tiered revised Offer.
On the 23rd of February, Potentia bumped with a $2.17/share unconditional Offer, increasing to $2.20 if they get to 75% interest, and $2.25 if ≥25% tendering opt for scrip.
Where does this leave Alludo? Nitro reckons Alludo can’t raise their offer because of ASIC’s Truth In Takeovers policy. But Alludo do pocket the A$5mn break fee for their troubles.

Booking Holdings Inc.: Major Drivers

Booking reported a strong finish to 2022 as it delivered revenue and adjusted EBITDA above Wall Street expectations.
Gross Booking increased as compared to the pre-pandemic time.
Room night growth trends have strengthened in the quarter, with the improvements driven by the U.S. and Asia.

Adobe Systems: Surprisingly Resilient

By BOS Research

4QFY22 results in-line with guidance and expectations; guidance for FY23 lower
Growth outlook while weakening, is surprisingly stronger-than-expected
Share price unlikely to move up materially due to overhang from Figma acquisition; but valuations seem fair given growth is holding up; fair value (FV) rises to USD365

TPL: Cash Cushion

TPL reported fourth quarter revenue impacted by a trifecta of events. The decline in energy prices led to reduced production levels causing water sales to also decline in a period
TPL had been seeing production rebound in the summer of 2022. The volatility in energy prices in the Permian Basin pushed some producers to slow down their well development plans
The lower production was the biggest culprit to the decline in revenue as producers were not incentivized to produce oil and natural gas.

Deere & Company: New Dealer Business System & Other Drivers

Deere managed to deliver an all-around beat in the first quarter of the new fiscal year.
The equipment operations had a 20% margin in the financial results for the quarter.
The management expects demand to exceed the industry’s ability to deliver for another year.

eBay Inc.: Major Drivers

eBay delivered a solid set of results in the last quarter despite ongoing macro uncertainty and managed an all-around beat.
In the previous quarter, eBay acquired myFitment and in this quarter, it started making the technology of myFitment accessible to all buyers beginning with the pilot group of P&A sellers.
During the quarter, eBay scaled up several live events with select sellers.

ECVT: Free Cash Flow Storm

ECVT suffered damage from winter storm Elliot towards the end of the fourth quarter, but that was not enough to prevent it from issuing upside adjusted EBITDA guidance
ECVT has experienced continued demand for its ecoservices and catalyst technologies
The pass-through costs of sulfuric acid makes sales figures look volatile, but adjusted EBITDA is the true measure, which continues to trend higher

HHC: The Cash Flow Story Continues

HHC highlighted its self-funding business style that should contribute to growing the scale of the Company’s commercial operations within its master planned communities (“MPC”)
HHC reported revenue of $482 million in Q4, bringing full year 2022 revenue to $1.61 billion. The full year revenue increase was expected as HHC recognizes condo sales upon delivery
Since the seventh tower, Victoria Place, will be completed in 2024, which means, condo sales in 2023 would be limited

Hyatt Hotels Corporation: Dream Hotel Group Acquisition & Other Drivers

Hyatt Hotels Corporation had a good quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
The company generated positive free cash flows in 2022 primarily by optimizing capital allocation and investing in new growth platforms.
We give Hyatt Hotels Corporation a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Intuit Inc.: Major Drivers

Intuit had another strong quarter managed to deliver an all-around beat with revenues, operating income, and earnings per share rising.
In the Self-Employed Group and the Small Business, revenue grew during the quarter.
This quarter, Intuit launched a QuickBooks business network for millions of QuickBooks customers for further digitizing B2B payments in the U.S.

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Mar 02

Daily Brief United States: Applied Materials, Twilio Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Gold, Hubspot Inc, ROBLOX Corp, Servicenow Inc, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, Albemarle Corp, Palo Alto Networks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Applied Materials Inc.: Major Drivers
Twilio Inc.: Major Drivers
NVIDIA Corporation: Major Drivers
Gold (XAU) – Potential to Confirm a Renewed MT Uptrend at the Weekly Close
HubSpot Inc.: Major Drivers
Roblox Corporation: Collaboration With H&M & Other Drivers
Servicenow: Not Immune to Macro Headwinds
Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers
Albemarle Corporation: Launch Of The Ketjen Brand & Other Drivers
Palo Alto Networks Inc.: Major Drivers

Applied Materials Inc.: Major Drivers

Applied Materials performed well in the first fiscal quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
For the seventh consecutive quarter, the company increased its backlog.
We give Applied Materials a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Twilio Inc.: Major Drivers

Twilio delivered a strong result with revenues above Wall Street expectations and strong profitability as against the analyst expectation of a negative EPS.
The fact remains that its revenue growth lags behind booking growth.
In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

NVIDIA Corporation: Major Drivers

Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, NVIDIA’s stock has been on a solid bull run.
The company’s revenue was down in the quarter but managed to surpass analyst expectations.
The sequential growth in revenues was driven by the robust reception of its 40 Series GeForce RTX GPU based on the architecture of Ada Lovelace.

Gold (XAU) – Potential to Confirm a Renewed MT Uptrend at the Weekly Close

By David Coloretti, CMT

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Gold retraced almost 50% of its aggressive Q4/Q1 uptrend in the past 4-5 weeks. The correction has bottomed at critical MT support.
The weekly close has the potential to deliver a bullish MT reversal pattern this week and likely set up the next phase of the MT uptrend, targeting 2070/75.

HubSpot Inc.: Major Drivers

HubSpot delivered profitable growth in the quarter with revenue increasing 35% year on year in constant currency in Q4.
The company delivered an all-around beat and saw an operating profit margin of 14% in the fourth quarter and 10% for the year.
In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Roblox Corporation: Collaboration With H&M & Other Drivers

Roblox Corporation is delivered a strong Q4 performance with revenues exceeding the analyst consensus estimate and narrower-than-expected losses.
With the exception of the first quarter of COVID, they added more new payers than ever before.
We give Roblox Corporation a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Servicenow: Not Immune to Macro Headwinds

By BOS Research

3QFY22 cRPO growth guidance likely to come as a disappointment; elongated deal cycles becoming apparent
Not losing sight of the broader opportunity; subdued guidance helps to reset investor expectations
FV of USD545 (previously USD668)

Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

By Joe Jasper

In last week’s Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes
There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.
These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more

Albemarle Corporation: Launch Of The Ketjen Brand & Other Drivers

Albemarle Corporation’s fourth quarter results were mixed as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street.
However, its adjusted EBITDA increased by more than 400% yearly resulting in an earnings beat.
While higher lithium prices were a factor in these outcomes, there was also a notable increase in volume growth.

Palo Alto Networks Inc.: Major Drivers

Palo Alto Networks had another strong quarter and delivered an all-around beat while generating substantial free cash flows.
The management informed analysts that some projects got descoped or delayed while most continued to be on track especially in its hardware pipeline.
They also closed the acquisition of Cider and brought CICD’s security capability of Cider to its platform.

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Mar 01

Daily Brief United States: Meta Platforms (Facebook), Salesforce.Com Inc, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc, Gold, ACCO Brands, Gracell Biotechnologies Inc, Shenandoah Telecommunications Company, NFT, Adeia, Immersion Corporation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Meta Platforms: Even More Bullish
Salesforce.com’s Upcoming Earnings: 3 Things You Need To Know
A Real Dividend Grower
The Highlights of USDAs 2023 Commodity Outlook // Where Stock Prices Are Headed in 2023
ACCO: Restructuring the Cash Machine
Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL.US) – The Overall Outlook for CAR T Therapy Is Highly Uncertain
SHEN: Slower Adds from a Larger Network
Sporting Crypto – 27th Feb 2023: Are NBA Top Shots Securities?
ADEA: Signing Deals and Generating Cash
IMMR: Sense the Value

Meta Platforms: Even More Bullish

By Aaron Gabin

The recently announced Meta Verified could generate an incremental $2.2B in revenues.
Incremental layoffs being reported could amount to $5B in incremental savings this year.
Between the two reports, we could easily see 10% upside to EPS.

Salesforce.com’s Upcoming Earnings: 3 Things You Need To Know

Share buybacks and stock-based compensation also will be an important part of the upcoming earnings release.
GAAP operating profitability will be in the spotlight as the company lays off a significant amount of its workforce.
The level of share buybacks will be a key part of Salesforce’s growth strategy.

A Real Dividend Grower

By BOS Research

One of top three global industrial gas suppliers well positioned to capitalise on renewables growth like hydrogen
Unbroken history of annual dividend increases for the past 40 years
Risks include execution hiccups and cost overruns

The Highlights of USDAs 2023 Commodity Outlook // Where Stock Prices Are Headed in 2023

By The Commodity Report

The agency estimates that roughly 46% of Ukraine’s wheat production lies in areas where the war is currently threatening the planting process.
US Soybean Crush Margin remains very high and therefore continues to support soybean meal prices
USDA is expecting a larger uptick in planted acres for Wheat and Rice but a large drop in planted acres for Cotton.

ACCO: Restructuring the Cash Machine

ACCO affirmed our industry concerns when it reported fourth quarter results that were lower than consensus estimates and resulted in free cash flow falling shy of the Company’s forecasts.
ACCO has a business that can generate significant amount of free cash flow the second half of each year depending on how much volume it can sell
ACCO is undertaking a restructuring effort to improve efficiencies to generate greater free cash flow from a tougher retail environment.

Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL.US) – The Overall Outlook for CAR T Therapy Is Highly Uncertain

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Although the pipeline has characteristics, Gracell’s R&D progress cannot catch up with the speed of the transformation of global CGT investment climate. Its commercialization performance could be much lower than expected.
There’s “practical obstacles” for the use of CAR-T, which cannot solve the actual clinical needs at this stage. Doctors would choose other solutions. So, the actual market space is small.
Investors can do short-term trade when Gracell’s valuation is lower than peers, but due to the highly uncertain long-term prospects of this company, we do not recommend long-term hold.

SHEN: Slower Adds from a Larger Network

SHEN reported better than expected fourth quarter revenue as more customers subscribe to faster broadband speeds
Our focus is on the seasonally low number of customer additions in the quarter even though SHEN was building out its optical fiber network.
Our negative bias has been built on SHEN’s capital expenditure plans requiring the Company to build debt and the timing of when SHEN would reach free cash flow positive

Sporting Crypto – 27th Feb 2023: Are NBA Top Shots Securities?

By Sporting Crypto

Last week there were headlines from media publishers that read something along the lines of; NBA-Branded ‘Top Shot Moments’ NFTs May Be Securities, Judge Rules in Dapper Labs Case
This brewed discourse around 1) Top Shots themselves being securities and 2) NFTs as a thing being securities.
Both 1) and 2) are wrong in my opinion, for a variety of reasons.

ADEA: Signing Deals and Generating Cash

ADEA managed to sign ten license agreements in the fourth quarter resulting in revenue growing. ADEA had indicated there were two deals that had spilled over into the fourth quarter
ADEA’s management has yet to reach the comfort level of moving the annual baseline revenue higher, but the ongoing pipeline of potential license deal could push 2023 revenue above guidance
ADEA reported fourth quarter revenue of $103.3 million compared to our estimate of $99.1 million. The increase in revenue resulted in adjusted EBITDA of $74.9 million

IMMR: Sense the Value

IMMR sustained its quarterly revenue above $9 million even though the Company already had a seasonally high third quarter performance
The broader use of haptics gave way to a diversified revenue stream in the fourth quarter
IMMR added to its cash balance even though it used its cash balance to buyback more stock

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Feb 28

Daily Brief United States: S&P 500, Alphabet Inc Cl C, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Kimball International B, HNI Corp, Flotek Industries, Franco-Nevada Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

EQD | SPX Vs SX5E: Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread
Google Stock Could Be Losing Its Moat
MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days
Kimball International, Inc. (Nasdaq: Kbal) – Initiating Coverage
Margin Improvement Evident in 4Q22; Sales Headwinds Remain into 2023
Contract Backlog Supports 2023 Revenue Outlook
The Importance of Asymmetry

EQD | SPX Vs SX5E: Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread

By Simon Harris

European markets have begun to outperform their US peers over last few months
The differences in market sentiment have driven both the implied and realised vol spread wider
Trade a relative vol spread that should hold up in multiple market scenarios

Google Stock Could Be Losing Its Moat

By Kevin George

Microsoft is improving its search market share, according to analysts.
The arrival of ChatGPT hammered Alphabet stock may be ahead as revenue effects sink in, says analyst.
The company is also improving its market share and improving its search market share.

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days

By David Coloretti, CMT

TSS or “Trend Sustainability Score” is our proprietary momentum based tactical methodology. TSS has a proven record of identifying the exhaustion points in interim trends.
On 17 February 2023 TSS identified exhaustion in the MSTR US uptrend and targeted a minimum 10% reversal in 1-2 weeks.
On 24 February 2023 MSTR US completed a 12.4% reversal from 284.03 to 248.87.

Kimball International, Inc. (Nasdaq: Kbal) – Initiating Coverage

We are initiating research coverage of Kimball International. For shareholders and potential investors, Kimball’s relevant history began in 1949 when Arnold Habig led the acquisition and reorganization of Midwest Manufacturing, a struggling manufacturer based in Jasper, Indiana.
Kimball management initiated its current strategy in 2014, focusing exclusively on commercial furniture.
Its strategy differs from other commercial furniture manufacturers by emphasizing ancillary products (88% of TTM revenues as of 2Q23) and concentrating on secondary geographic markets (79% of TTM revenues as of 2Q23).

Margin Improvement Evident in 4Q22; Sales Headwinds Remain into 2023

Before market open on February 23, HNI reported 4Q22 results that were better than we expected on both the top line (a modest beat) and margins (a significant beat).
Results were also ahead of consensus. HNI reported 4Q22 sales of $569 million versus $603 million in 4Q21, ahead of our estimate by $7.5 million and consensus by $9 million.
Adjusted EPS was $0.63, or $0.17 ahead of our estimate of $0.46 (also consensus).

Contract Backlog Supports 2023 Revenue Outlook