United States

• Compelling intraday reversal that kissed 4,177. Concern over an early fade below 4,200 was justified and formed a dual top. Fade below 4,165 was negative and used to sell.
• Growth concerns overshadowing lower inflation (transitioning) and this is a theme that we expect will expand over the summer along with the next round of bank failures/ripples and systemic risk. 
• Cycle: May/June a more negative cycle. Second half of April is when bull energy dissipates and starts the turning process.

• Since late-January/early-February we’ve recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.
• Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives
• Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). 

• This is our first report on a global investment behemoth, KKR & Co.
• Inc.
• The company delivered strong set of quarterly results surpassing Wall Street expectations on all fronts.

• EBIT beat – loss came in lower by 2.43%, Δ $(0.73)m vs. ACF est.;
• EBITDA beat – loss came in lower by 2.43%, vs. ACF est.;
• EPS beat (+ fully diluted) loss 4.22% lower vs. ACF est.

• UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s first-quarter earnings report might settle lower than anticipated as prices on long-term solutions have softened.
• The company has a rich history of beating earnings estimates, and its cash-based earnings exceeded its accrual-based income in 2022.
• UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is set to release its first-quarter earnings results before trading opens on Friday, the 14th.

• NTGR has been going through a product transition cycle in a soft demand environment for more than a year, but recent promotion activity suggests an end could be near
• The scale of promotions seems to have abated in the first quarter of 2023 even though demand has yet to return.
• NTGR had been projecting the first quarter would be the low point of the year with sequential revenue growth in the second quarter. 

• This is our first report on one of the largest asset managers, BlackRock.
• While the market situation in 2022 was among the most difficult years, BlackRock delivered decent organic growth and ended the year with an all-around beat.
• The company generated $300 billion in total net inflows in 2022, which led the industry, and experienced positive organic base fee growth.

• VeriSign is one of the largest domain name registry services and internet infrastructure providers in the world.
• It produced solid financial results throughout 2022 while bolstering its vital Internet infrastructure.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

• This is our first report on the renowned domain name registry services and internet infrastructure provider, VeriSign.
• It produced solid financial results throughout 2022 while bolstering its vital Internet infrastructure.
• This was made achievable by conservative expense management, restricted pricing flexibility, and minimal domain name base expansion.

• This is our first report on American Express, one of the world’s largest integrated payment companies.
• The company continued the upward trend in Card Member spending, engagement, and retention in the fourth quarter.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of the American Express Company with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• Greenland is a leading Tier 1 supplier of transmissions, integrated electric drivetrains, and all-electric construction equipment. 
• The company supplies more than 100 multinational and Chinese lift truck original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) through its research and development (R&D), testing, and manufacturing facilities.
• The company also manufactures and sells battery-electric powered heavy construction equipment in the US market, the HEVI division, which we see as being at the early stages of a significant growth opportunity.

• Despite fears of a banking crisis, Citibank’s held-for-sale and trading securities are likely to be marked higher amid a favorable 3-month liquid bond and equity market environment.
• Citi’s ex-market debt portfolio is at risk of lower recoveries and heightened cyclical exposure.
• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is due to release its first-quarter earnings report before the market opens on Friday, April 14th.

• In the wake of soaring energy prices and heightened concerns over energy security following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, residential demand for solar power has skyrocketed.
• This surge in interest is further fueled by a combination of factors: the reduced cost of solar panels thanks to increased manufacturing scale and the Inflation Reduction Act that extends the 30% solar tax credit, making solar more accessible to a broader segment of society.
• Amidst this solar boom, Complete Solaria is gearing up to go public through a SPAC merger later this year.

• As the new season commences in April, Brazil is predicted to manufacture 40.3 million tonnes of sugar, marking the second highest yield ever recorded.
• This is primarily due to the favorable climate conditions and the sufficient capitalization of mills, allowing for the proper care of crops.
• As per a report by Job Economia, mills are likely to concentrate on sugar production, reducing ethanol production, since the cost of sugar futures is at its highest in over six years.

• WDFC reported fiscal second quarter (February) results continuing to depict a soft demand environment. WDFC reported a decline in unit volume across all major geographies
• WDFC reported fiscal second quarter sales of $130.2 million compared to $124.9 million achieved in fiscal first quarter.
• The Company reduced its inventory level only to raise its accounts receivable by more than the decline in inventory and the increase in sales

• Keurig Dr Pepper share price has been under pressure over the recent months due to higher than expected drop in profitability.
• Beverage segments, however, continue to perform well and would most likely offset weaknesses in coffee.
• Investors should not expect a quick rebound in the company’s free cash flow.

• In Part 1 of this series, we emphasized that despite the considerable hype and fear-mongering surrounding it, ChatGPT and recent development in the field of AI deserves a closer look.
• Then we explored ChatGPT’s basic capabilities.
• If you just look at the summary of what it can do, you might conclude that we have just invented a magical unicorn that spews rainbows across the sky as it flies.

• Unlike every other (far larger & richer) social media site, Elon Musk has declared war on Substack and anyone who dares post there as well as on Twitter. 
• It’s the kind of petty retaliation he’s well known for, and a stunt he could repeat against any publishing platform that displeases him for any reason.
• His bullying will continue until morale improves. Or until he achieves universal adoration, whichever comes first.

• SPX met the 4,100 long target and NDX turned higher off of 13,000 support that are expected to induce a secondary April rally.
• A push back toward SPX 4,200 will put the final touches on the buoyant April recovery cycle toward SPX 4,200/20. There is risk the rally falters below 4,200.
• US 10yr yield hovering above 3.20% lower wedge support per call for an undershoot below 3.35%. 

• Last quarter I published the first liquidity ranking system for crypto assets, comparing each asset’s liquidity ranking to its market cap and investigating which token’s market cap is the most misleading from a liquidity standpoint.
• Liquidity has arguably never been at more of a premium than right now in crypto, with USD payment rails being shut down and market makers pulling orders from exchanges.
• With market depth at 10 month lows, price volatility has picked up and so it is essential investors can accurately evaluate the liquidity of each individual asset to gain an understanding of how much short term volatility to expect.

• This is our first report on a global media and entertainment player, Formula One Group.
• Its fourth quarter result was mixed and the company surpassed the revenue expectations of Wall Street but missed out on meeting earnings expectations.
• The company introduced a new brand campaign in the quarter to demonstrate F1’s position in the sporting and entertainment worlds.

• Formula One Group is major global media and entertainment company with decent fundamentals.
• The management anticipates Ford’s contribution as a technical engine supplier will be valuable for the sport and Red Bull.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

• This is our first report on PerkinElmer, a premium provider of life sciences, diagnostics, and applied services markets across the globe.
• The company had a decent 2022 and their Life Sciences and Diagnostics business experienced organic growth of 9% for the entire year.
• With the introduction of adeno-associated virus or AAV detection kits, the Life Sciences business has continued to innovate in cell and gene therapy.

• This is our first report on major lab equipment manufacturer, Waters Corporation.
• Its Pharma has also had decent growth, driven by both large and small molecule applications which has been led by the European markets.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

• This is our first report on major lab equipment manufacturer, Waters Corporation.
• Waters’ growth has also been aided by its reinvigorated portfolio and this trend is expected to continue.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of Waters Corporation with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• Ally Financial has emerged as a potential target after the recent events in the banking sector.
• There are certain macroeconomic risks involved, but the company has changed dramatically over the past decade.
• There are also major differences between the recently failed banks and Ally Financial that need to be considered, according to the company.

• This is our first report on West Pharmaceutical Services, a major manufacturer of injectable medication delivery and packaging systems.
• West Pharmaceutical reported an all-around beat in its last result and generated about 8% growth in organic sales overall.
• With COVID-19 excluded, West anticipates that its base organic sales growth was in the low double digits, with proprietary product growth in the mid-teens.

• This is our first report on a major LTL shipping company, Old Dominion Freight Line.
• As a result, the company delivered double-digit growth in earnings per diluted share in the fourth quarter.
• Besides that, the productive labor expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 170 basis points within their direct operating costs, while their purchase transportation costs decreased by 200 basis points.

• PerkinElmer is a major provider of life sciences, diagnostics, and applied services markets across the globe.
• The company had a decent 2022 and their Life Sciences and Diagnostics business experienced organic growth of 9% for the entire year.
• With the introduction of adeno-associated virus or AAV detection kits, the Life Sciences business has continued to innovate in cell and gene therapy.

• Last month, I wrote how the last time government bond yields rose above 4%, it brought down the UK government.
• It happened again, and five banks, including the almighty Credit Suisse, failed.
• As a result, an old driver of the gold price has re-emerged, which is Sovereign risk.

• ATEN continued to experience a slowdown in orders management had cited when the Company reported fourth quarter 2022 results
• ATEN is forecasting first quarter revenue of $56 million to $58 million compared to our estimate of nearly $67 million
• We are making changes to our earnings model including lowering our full year revenue estimate.

Immix Biopharma’s FY22 results reflected a busy period as management ramped up clinical activity across multiple programs. In a major development, Immix expanded its portfolio with the in-licensing of NXC-201, an autologous CAR-T therapy being investigated for the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM) and AL amyloidosis (ALA) currently in the ongoing Phase I/II NEXICART-1 study. With the increase in R&D activity primarily associated with in-licensing NXC-201, Immix reported an operating loss of $8.2m in FY22 (FY21: $1.4m) and we estimate that its net cash position of $13.4m at end-December 2022 provides a cash runway into Q423. Given the company’s increased disclosure of its arrangement with the licensors and of future NEXICART-I study costs, as well as its communicated strategy to expand clinical studies in the US, we now include NXC-201 in our valuation. We value Immix at $77.1m or $5.5 per share (previously $61.5m or $4.4 per share).

• LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI will remain in the index as top stocks of pack makers, respectively. Ecopro BM will almost certainly replace L&F in the category of Cathode.
• SK IE Technology will newly join the index with Separator’s top stock. On the other hand, Lotte Energy Materials and SKC are unlikely to be included.
• This event can be a critical inflection point in predicting the counter-flow for short positions against Ecopro BM and L&F in advance.

• On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
• The S&P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
• We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 — with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible — but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.

• A surprise OPEC cut has sent oil prices higher, a surprise cut could leave the SPR depleted.
• An oil surge could see lower growth and a return to inflation, an oil surge.
• A return toflation could be seen in the future, according to a report by the U.S. Department of Energy.

• Masco Corporation is a major player involved in the design, manufacture and distribution of home improvement and building products.
• Over the year, DIY paint saw low single-digit growth which has impacted their growth.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

• Insulet Corporation is a med-tech company and one of the largest insulin delivery systems providers in the world.
• Their Omnipod 5 Automated Insulin Delivery System’s complete commercial introduction in 2022 was a major accomplishment.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

• This is our first report on a Insulet Corporation, one of the largest insulin delivery systems providers in the world.
• Their Omnipod 5 Automated Insulin Delivery System’s complete commercial introduction in 2022 was a major accomplishment.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of Insulet Corporation with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• This is our first report on global food processing giant, Archer-Daniels-Midland.
• Low water conditions limited North American export volumes, which were largely offset by a strong performance by the South American business.
• The North American business produced excellent volumes and margins in both starches and sweeteners, slightly offsetting decreased ethanol margins.

• This is our first report on Masco Corporation, a major global player involved in the design, manufacture and distribution of home improvement and building products.
• Plumbing increased by 2% in local currency, with a 7% increase in overseas plumbing offsetting a 1% fall in North American plumbing.
• Over the year, DIY paint saw low single-digit growth, while professional paint saw over 25% growth.

• Pegasystems Inc is a major player in the enterprise software fomain.
• Pega Cloud innovation has sped up adoption, and they have made great strides toward modernizing its clients.
• Our credit report caters to all forms of stakeholders, particularly lenders and fixed income or yield investors in the company.

• This is our first report on the American software giant, Pegasystems Inc.
• The company ended 2022 on a positive note with an all-around beat and a 16% ACV growth.
• Pega Cloud innovation has sped up adoption, and they have made great strides toward modernizing its clients.

• This week, space launch company Virgin Galactic’s funding woes escalated as emergency talks with potential investors fell through.
• As a result, the company announced a staggering 85% workforce reduction and paused operations until further funding is secured.
• Since going public in 2021 with a $3.7 billion valuation, Virgin Orbit’s value has plummeted by 99% as of its last close, highlighting the realities of space investing.