United States

• Q1’23 revenues of $5.4 billion, down 3.5% QoQ, down 9% YoY, but marginally ahead of the guided midpoint.
• AMD’s outlook for the current quarter is for revenues of $5.3 billion at the midpoint, basically flat sequentially:
• Data center revenues will grow 50% sequentially in H2’23 compared to H1’23

• Bank jitters touted to resurface in May with growth concerns topping falling inflation data. SPX MACD in focus as a key bearish driver.
• KRE bear break below 42 support targets 32.40 and will bleed into the SPX and the global cycle.
• MACD cycle trough expected near mid-June and will set the stage for a bull recovery. Until then we are selling bounces per our May/June negative cycle.

• Fiserv’s delivered a 30% return since October of last year, when I laid out my full investment thesis.
• Fiserv is laying the groundwork for long-term growth, says the company’s market commentators.
• The company continues to outmaneuver its direct competitors, according to analysts.

• Cycle: May/June a more negative cycle. Late April negative/ turn phase is unfolding with a squeeze surprise (2-3 session swing turns).  Sell SPX 4,200 top zone. 4,100 break will open up selling pressure. 
• RTY bear reversal at 1,790 resistance on track and the underperform favored US short.
• Euro wedge break would pick up slack as the USD/JPY rise stalls at resistance. Asian equity short, long updated levels.

• We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
• As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
• While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

• In the latest inning of the crypto credit crisis, real world banks like Silvergate was shuttered making the on-and-off ramp of crypto to fiat more challenging.
• Crypto lenders have already been decimated in the centralised lending space while DeFi lenders seem to trudge along – but are they the bastions of success? 
• We analyse what the current landscape means for the crypto lending industry and have a regrettable conclusion.

• AT&T delivered mixed results in the quarter with below-par revenues but profitability above expectations.
• As a result, wireless service revenues and EBITDA may increase, and margins may improve.
• Despite a slowdown in industry growth, their Business Solutions wireless service revenues increased by almost 7%.

• Philip Morris International’s Q1 results exceeded analyst expectations on the earnings front but were below par in terms of revenues despite some decent underlying momentum from IQOS, ZYN, and its combustible business.
• The company’s Q1 organic net revenues had solid growth.
• This highlights the ongoing strength of IQOS as a step-up in pricing but was somewhat mitigated by anticipated HTU inventory movement.

• In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report the World Bank said last week that global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the fastest pace
• The agency expects prices to fall 21% compared to last year during 2023.
• For 2024 the World Bank expects prices to remain stable. 

• SAP delivered a highly disappointing set of results failing to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The current cloud backlog and cloud revenue for S/4HANA increased by 79% which is why Q1 revenue increased by 9% overall.
• Their SaaS and PaaS portfolios continued to expand by 25%, with SaaS cloud revenue increasing by 22% and PaaS cloud revenue increasing by 45%.

• Nucor Corporation delivered a mixed set of results in the quarter, failing to meet revenue expectations of Wall Street but managing an earnings beat.
• Its result was largely attributed to Nucor’s steel products segments’ continued profitability as well as higher volumes and margins at its steel mills segment.
• Shipments from Nucor’s steel mills increased by 18%, increasing their utilization to almost 80% in Q1 from 70% in Q1 of last year.

• Despite macro-challenges like weak global industrial activity, high cost inflation, ongoing geopolitical issues, and waning demand in U.S. construction-related end-use markets, PPG Industries delivered an all-around beat in its recent result.
• During the quarter, PPG gained several new clients, including Walmart’s 3,800 paint-related retail locations.
• Besides, with more global rollouts planned, the company expects the automotive refinish industry to have 1,400 MOONWALK machines installed.

• Procter & Gamble delivered strong results and managed an all-around beat in the recent result.
• Pricing increased sales growth by 10 points, while mix had a marginally favorable impact on the quarter.
• Growth remained widespread across business divisions, with organic sales increasing in the company’s ten product categories.

• SHEN reported first quarter results benefiting from non-recurring termination revenue and tax refunds. SHEN’s revenue and profitability were aided in the quarter with $1.7 million in termination fee
• Net income benefited from a one-time refund on sales tax and interest earned on tax refunds more than offsetting SHEN’s interest expense
• SHEN ended the first quarter with 28,793 Glo Fiber subscribers, up 4,507 from the fourth quarter 2022

• Herbalife has a strong position in the wellness industry, with net sales of $5.2b in 2022 and a market cap of $1.46b.
• The company was founded in 1980, and it employs an estimated 9,900 people worldwide.
• First, the company has a strong brand name and loyal customer base, which can support long-term growth prospects for Herbalife Nutrition (NYSE:HLF).

• The ‘end of the dollar’ has been nigh since 2005.
• The U.S. dollar will be the last to go crash, says CNN.com’s John Sutter.com.com/Doom merchants are back.
• The end of thedollar has been in place since 2005, says Sutter.

• Given the impact of inflationary headwinds encountered throughout the year, Constellation Brands’ financial performance was not up to expectations.
• The company delivered a 7% increase in net sales in the quarter which was below expectations along with a 3% increase in comparable operating income which resulted in an earnings beat.
• Constellation Brands achieved record net sales of $9.5 billion and equivalent operating profits of $3 billion for the year.

• CSX Corporation achieved a successful first quarter, fueled by strong pricing and volume growth in its goods and coal businesses which resulted in an all-around beat.
• While the company saw positive growth in automotive, customer production challenges hampered quarterly volumes.
• Solid commodity prices are anticipated to support the global coal market in the near future, resulting in positive volume growth.

• With its results around the corner, let us take a closer look at Emersion Electric’s last quarter performance.
• The company’s last result had been a major disappointment as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The sales performance was driven by growth in software, control, and in Intelligent Devices.

• Exact Sciences Corporation delivered strong results in the quarter, with fourth quarter revenue increased by 17%, or 28%, excluding COVID testing, to $553 million.
• The company delivered an all-around beat in the quarter as 10,000 new healthcare professionals ordered Cologuard, bringing the total to over 302,000.
• Besides that, Precision Oncology’s revenue fell 4% to $143 million, excluding the loss of the company’s prostate business and a $2 million forex headwind increase of 1%.

• IDEX experienced double-digit organic growth in the last quarter and achieved strong profitability and sales that were beyond market expectations.
• IDEX is on its next phase of automation at Banjo and views continued improvement in efficiencies and delivery.
• In its energy business, IDEX sees favorable demand for natural gas production, energy exports, and continued oil price support.

• Lumen Technologies has its results just around the corner.
• The company gave a solid result in the last quarter and managed an all-around beat which can also be expected this time.
• Lumen Technologies recently announced the company’s major network expansion plan for deriving an additional 6 million intercity fiber miles to its existing expansive network by 2026.

• McKesson Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the last quarter with revenues below expectations but it did manage an earnings beat.
• Revenues in the Prescription Technology Solutions sector were $1.1 billion, up 9% yearly, due to higher prescription volumes, quicker growth in the company’s third-party logistics business, and higher technology service revenues.
• In the last quarter, McKesson also made significant progress in developing its oncology and biopharma ecosystems.

• The Mosaic Company has its results just around the corner and it would be interesting to evaluate its last financial performance.
• The company had delivered mixed results in the last quarter with below par earnings.
• Besides that, the company has expanded its MicroEssentials offering in phosphates by increasing capacity at its Riverview site.

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• The past 3 weeks have produced a failed new 2023 high in WTI Crude Oil futures (CL1), a bearish weekly reversal pattern and a break below the recent prominent gap.
• A weekly close below the gap base at 75.72 will confirm a renewed and dominant MT downtrend bias and target a retest of the 2023 low at 64.12.

• ADEA has seen its stock price decline in the past month since announcing license agreements with two major NAND memory makers
• This could have put too much emphasis on the semiconductor side of the business even though it is purely additive to the business model
• The expected year over year decline in first quarter 2023 revenue is related to one-time license payment last year

Immix Biopharma continues to share encouraging data from the Phase Ib/II open-label NEXICART-1 trial. This study is investigating NXC-201, a CAR-T therapy, for the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM) and light chain amyloidosis (ALA). At the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation 49th Annual Meeting in Paris, Immix announced positive results for the 58 patients enrolled so far. An overall response rate (ORR) of 92% was reported for patients with MM, and an ORR of 100% for patients with ALA. The therapy has also continued to show a favorable safety profile, building on a comprehensive data package to support NXC-201 as the first potential outpatient CAR-T therapy, offering significant market differentiation, in our view. Management plans to submit a biologics license application (BLA) for FDA approval in MM once 100 patients have been treated, and in ALA once 30–40 patients have been treated.

• Carrier Global’s results for the last quarter were an all-around beat and its cash flows, earnings, and sales were in line with the expectations of the management.
• It delivered organic sales growth supported by double-digit growth in commercial HVAC and light commercial, trailer and global truck, and after-market.
• Carrier made progress in its innovative Lynx platform and has launched various new capabilities this quarter.

• ATNI started its first quarter earnings call with a tease that is likely to receive investor praise once officially announced. ATNI is finalizing a carrier service agreement 
• ATNI already has a carrier service agreement with AT&T (T) where ATNI has been building wireless towers for FirstNet
• During the first quarter ATNI added more broadband and mobile customers within each of its business segments.

• With its earnings just around the corner, it is interesting to look at how Howmet Aerospace has been performing in recent times.
• The company exited the last quarter with a strong acceleration in revenue despite the choppy backlog.
• Commercial transportation, which impacts fastening systems and forged wheels, was up in the quarter, driven by higher volumes and higher aluminum prices.

• Newmont Corporation ended 2022 with a mixed fourth-quarter performance.
• The company generated $3.2 billion in revenue in Q4 and started Q1 with a $2.7 billion of revenue.
• Newmont improved the coaching and development of its frontline leaders to improve the effectiveness of its important control verifications.

• Intuitive Surgical managed an all-around beat in the last quarter with decent revenue and products growth.
• The new capital installs were quite strong, with customers building their Ion and da Vinci system capabilities.
• A capable product portfolio and strong growth in procedures have supported quite a healthy capital placement quarter.

• Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.
• In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.
• I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in <30% for 2023.

• Founded in 2022, Unity Software Shanghai Co. (Unity 3D/Unity China) is a Chinese company that provides a 3D development platform, and AR/VR solutions to the gaming industry.
• The company is a subsidiary of Unity Software (U US) and focuses on localisation Unity’s products and services to the Chinese market.
• The company was valued at around US$1bn at the time of its formation and based on deal terms, might go for a listing when its valuation hits US$3.6bn.

• Exxon Mobil is about to report its Q1 2023 results, investors should keep their long-term view and dismiss any quarterly noise.
• Management is now becoming increasingly aggressive in its expansion efforts and should provide more information on that during the quarter.
• If you bought Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) back in 2020 when I laid out my investment thesis on the company, then most likely you wouldn’t be bothered by the quarterly fluctuations of the stock.

• The best design often goes unnoticed. DeFi lending and borrowing stalwarts Aave and Compound have proven themselves to be great design: critical for day-to-day functioning but largely taken for granted.
• This becomes apparent when a competitor experiences an exploit, highlighting the reliability of Aave and Compound
• When last we checked in on these protocols in December they were in a period of change.

• NTGR reported first quarter results asserting sell through was healthy but channel partners were not replenishing their inventory
• Heading into the results, we had cited the lack of deep discounts in the quarter as a sign that inventory had stabilized. 
• NTGR is entering the second quarter with no expectation of channel partners coming back with increased order flow

OpGen has announced that Curetis (its German subsidiary) has successfully met the remaining key milestones for Unyvero A30 RQ under the initial R&D collaboration with FIND (a global non-profit alliance for diagnostics), triggering a $0.3m milestone payment to OpGen. This development follows the achievement of certain other key milestones in January 2023. While OpGen is still working on the next set of deliverables under the expanded scope of R&D agreement (April 2023), the successful completion of the feasibility phase indicates Unyvero’s potential adaptability for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As a step forward, OpGen will seek to expand the agreement towards clinical studies and subsequent commercialization.

• Kenvue (KVUE US), a wholly owned subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US), is preparing for an IPO of 151M shares. The IPO price is expected to be $20–23/share.  
• Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and BofA Securities are acting as joint lead bookrunning managers for the IPO. J&J will still own more than 90% of Kenvue’s shares after the IPO.
• In 1Q23, Kenvue’s revenue increased 7% YoY to $3.9B, driven by a 12% YoY revenue growth in self-care OTC products. Adjusted net income increased 3% YoY to $630M.

• Last night the CMA chose to block the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard in the UK on the grounds that it would harm competition in cloud gaming. 
• The merits of that position are highly debatable in our view but that does not mean that the decision is bad for consumers. 
• It also does not mean that the decision is bad for Microsoft in our view.

• ASRT is purchasing Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) in an all-stock transaction that adds ROLVEDON to its product portfolio.
• The initial reaction to the deal has been materially negative after ASRT added it would maintain a majority of SPPI’s operating expenses.
• ASRT’s management has been looking for an asset that would help diversify the revenue stream away from Indocin. The purchase of SPPI achieves such a goal

• We expect ACMR to report C1Q23 top-line and IFRS net income 2.8% and 83% vs. consensus, respectively. 
• We expect it to raise FY the mid-point of its guidance to US$560mn~, due to YMTC orders and 4Q23 order visibility; 
• We are buyers into earnings but avoid long-positions between reporting dates due to geopolitical risk exposure.

• Elastic NV has managed to deliver another all-around beat in its last result and increased its revenue by 27% in the last quarter.
• Though there have been challenges and obstacles in the macro environment recently, such as problems regarding the supply chain, Elastic has maintained its growth trajectory.
• We also have a dedicated analysis of the company’s Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.

• Fleetcor Technologies’ Q4 results were stronger than anticipated, surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings and also surpassing the upper limit of the management’s guidance in terms of revenues.
• The company’s organic revenue increase was 7%.
• Its total sales increased by 19%, retention remained constant at 92%, and same-store results were up 2% for the quarter.

• This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation.
• Their interest-bearing bank deposits decreased from $41.9 billion to under $25 billion due to their repositioning the balance sheet to use surplus cash.
• We initiate coverage on the stock of M&T Bank Corporation with a ‘Buy’ rating.

• Nutanix delivered a strong first quarter with an all-around beat.
• The company’s renewals continue to be strong, exceeding its projected metrics.
• Nutanix managed to deliver a successful quarter with efficient growth in the number of customers as well as in revenue and ACV billings.

• Teleflex had a mixed quarter with revenues of $758 million that was below Wall Street expectations given a year-over-year fall of 0.5%.
• Despite an unanticipated subcomponent supply chain issue in their Surgical business, their fourth quarter constant currency revenue growth remained steady.
• Teleflex’s Interventional, Surgical, and OEM product categories produced double-digit constant currency year-over-year revenue increase.

• AppLovin Corporation had a disappointing quarter as it delivered significantly wider-than-expected losses and a negative bottom-line even though its revenues were above Wall Street expectations.
• Its results in the quarter included the performance of the software platform, which increased 24% year over year.
• For the first quarter of the upcoming year, they anticipate total revenue and EBITDA to be roughly flat compared to the fourth quarter which implies another possible loss-making quarter.

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
• Bitcoin (XBTUSD) confirmed a meaningful top in the past 2 weeks when it rejected material MT resistance levels and completed a bearish weekly reversal pattern.
• With definitive bullish price and momentum triggers in play, we anticipate that a multi-week period of consolidation / correction will remain counter-trend. Searching for the next MT base towards 25200/25250. 

• The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
• Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker “sell in May and go away” period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
• This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).

• Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under SPX 4,200.
• A number of breakdown coming through in Asia – Korea’s bear impulse and Taiwan’s break of trendline support that turns the cycle to bearish. Japan will lag.
• SPX MACD bear turn is in line with our late April bear phase. A cycle trough is due in 6 weeks time (second week of June).

• Results recap. EVmo reported record revenues of $12.6 million, up 23% from 2021, on a growing vehicle fleet, higher rental rates from new high-demand cars (Tesla Model 3s), and increased sales efforts.
• Based on the existing fleet today, the company expects annual revenues of more than $18 million, which would imply 40% growth over 2022.
• Consolidated net loss was $7.1 million, an almost $8 million improvement from 2021 due to sales growth and cost controls.

• Ross Stores delivered strong fourth-quarter sales and profitability results despite a very competitive holiday season, owing to customers’ positive response to the company’s expanded selection and value offerings.
• The company delivered an all-around beat with earnings per share for Q4 reported at $1.31 on a net income of $447 million.
• These figures compare to earnings per share of $1.04 on net earnings of $367 million for the 13 weeks ended January 29, 2022.

• Skyworks Solutions reported a strong first-quarter financial results, with sales above the analyst consensus estimate, robust profitability, and significant cash flow performance.
• In addition to the strong financial performance, Skyworks expanded its design win pipeline in a number of emerging high-growth markets.
• Skyworks expanded its expanding technology portfolio across a growing customer base in IoT.

• Omnicom Group delivered an all-around beat as its revenues increased by 1%, while non-GAAP adjusted operating income remained unchanged.
• Net interest expense decreased as interest income exceeded the company’s expectations.
• We give Omnicom Group a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

• Johnson & Johnson reported strong operational performance in the quarter, demonstrating the power and adaptability of Johnson & Johnson as well as its dedication to enhancing global health outcomes.
• They also anticipate a number of pipeline advances in 2023 that will boost confidence in their Pharmaceutical and MedTech companies.
• Johnson & Johnson remains confident in its ability to generate near-term success, long-term growth, and shareholder value creation in the future.

• Over the past few weeks I’ve done a handful of checks with competitors and customers in the restaurant-tech industry.
• It was by no means exhaustive but definitely insightful.
• Some were first party conversations; others came from 3rd party expert networks, podcasts interviews (there are lots of good ones out there, by the way) and other vendor white-papers etc.

• Despite significant macroeconomic uncertainty in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, Analog Devices managed to deliver an all-around beat.
• These successes were driven by the company’s unwavering commitment to customer collaboration, the rising demand for cutting-edge technologies, and effective operational management.
• We give Analog Devices a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

• Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) is reportedly drawing takeover interest from Boston Scientific. Shockwave can potentially be one of Boston Scientific’s largest ever acquisitions. Probable pricing still offers upside potential.
• Shockwave has an addressable market opportunity of $8.5 billion. The company has guided for 2023 revenue of $660–680 million, which represents 35–39% YoY growth.
• Addition of Shockwave will bolster Boston Scientific’s cardiovascular portfolio. No official announcement has been made by any of the companies. There is no certainty they will lead to a deal.

• Last week, Coinbase received approval to operate an offshore derivatives exchange, based in Bermuda.
• This move makes a lot of sense, particularly when looking at Coinbase’s share of total spot volumes.
• Since the start of 2022, Coinbase’s share of volumes has almost halved, falling from 10% to 5% while Binance gained as much as 30% market share over the same time period, before losing some in the last couple of weeks with their reintroduction of fees.

• Don’t get fooled by the tight inventory narrative While many copper bulls continue to write about the low copper inventories I would like to inform you once again that there is simply no correlation between copper inventories and the price of the industrial metal.
• If you want to be precise – you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the price of the brownish metal.
• US Leading Economic Index’s recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB’s senior manager for business cycle indicators.

• Kroger had a mixed Q4 and failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street given the shifting customer preferences due to inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.
• The company observed total household growth and improved customer loyalty, with higher-income households growing by 1.1 million.
• The company’s end-to-end fresh initiative led to noticeable growth in both fresh and total store sales, and Kroger will continue innovating to enhance the fresh experience and drive customer satisfaction.

• Marvell Technologies had a challenging Q4 but it did manage to surpass the revenue expectations of Wall Street.
• However, the company expects strong growth in revenue from 5G and custom ASICs in Q1, although with gross margins lower than Marvell’s average.
• In terms of the end markets, data center revenue declined 13% YoY and 21% sequentially, while the rest of the end markets held up relatively well.

• Mettler-Toledo experienced robust growth in most product lines and regions during Q3, particularly in the Lab business, resulting in a successful quarter which happened to be an all-around beat.
• While Product Inspection witnessed a 13% increase in sales during the quarter, Food Retail sales decreased by 19%.
• To capture growth and market share in its Lab business, Mettler has accelerated their digital transformation in sales and marketing and sharpened their focus on the most attractive market segments.

• Despite a more difficult environment, Morgan Stanley had a strong quarter and managed an all-around beat.
• The merging of Eaton Vance and E-Trade increased the company’s potential to gain new clients, increase assets, and support its stability.
• We initiate coverage on Morgan Stanley with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

• Sabre had a challenging Q3 and failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street while delivering wider-than-expected losses.
• Sabre generated total revenue of $441 million in the quarter, a substantial improvement compared to $278 million in Q3 2020.
• The distribution revenue of Sabre increased by $140 million year-on-year, and the IT Solutions revenue increased to $145 million in Q3.

• Box had a successful third quarter and delivered an all-around beat with accelerating revenue growth, an operating margin of 21%, and RPO growth of 25%.
• Box’s net retention rate was 109%, with 97 deals over $100,000 and a 63% attach rate of Suites over $100,000 in the quarter.
• Box is seeing early success in customer adoption and use of Box Sign, with leading organizations replacing their incumbent signature solutions with Box Sign.

• Visa has become one of the best-performing stocks within its peer group.
• The risk of a recession is still casting a shadow over Visa, but implications from the inflationary environment should not be ignored.
• The business continues to perform better than expected, and investors should keep a close eye on the upcoming earnings report.

• In recent months, the once-thriving Space SPAC ecosystem has faced significant deflation, brought on by operational hurdles, delays, and challenges in raising funds.
• Over the last three years, more than a dozen space-focused companies went public through SPACs, yet the majority now trade at a significant discount to their deal valuation.
• Amidst this challenging landscape, lunar-focused space company Intuitive Machines is the latest to debut last month through a SPAC deal, which valued the company at close to $1 billion.