United States

• Q2 deliveries were solidly higher versus expectations, thanks to Tesla’s 11th hour fire sales on top of fire sales to move sluggish inventory. 
• The trouble is, this likely slashed already shrinking profitability while excess inventory continued to grow.
• Margins & profits probably can’t recover as more aggressive measures already are needed in Q3 just to sustain sales.

• The second week in a row of good vibes. The crypto market is basking in a period of optimism, fueled by the momentum generated from the influx of numerous ETF filings.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum, the leading cryptocurrencies, have experienced sustained upward trends in their values.
• As a result, the vision of an interconnected on-chain, off-chain financial system is rekindled, and the hopes of a seamless integration of traditional and digital economies emerge again, with record inflows of capital into crypto to feed this hypothesis.

• United Rentals continues to perform well as the risk of a recession grows.
• The share price is not expensive as profitability and utilization rates remain strong.
• United Renters remains a sold long-term opportunity, but near-term risks should not be ignored, but United Rental remains a selling long- term opportunity.

Ahead of its H123 results and an anticipated period of increased business activity in the second half of the year, we present a preview of SIGA Technologies, which continues to have strong fundamentals (despite the bearish macro environment) with several potential inflection points on the horizon. The nearest catalysts, in our opinion, are the upcoming TPOXX deliveries to the US strategic national stockpile (which we expect in Q3/Q423) and data readouts from the post-exposure prophylactic (PEP) label expansion trials, anticipated in Q323, positive results from which could materially expand SIGA’s addressable market. With a strong balance sheet and potential incremental income generation for shareholders (via dividends and buybacks), we believe that SIGA has a resilient business case in the biotech space.

• IAC managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
• The company’s emphasis on core fundamentals and operational efficiency has yielded profitability and improved customer experiences.
• IAC is also focused on driving revenue growth through investments in customer experience and strategic revenue reallocation.

• Brown-Forman managed to surpass the revenue expectations and the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• With an increase in reported net sales, driven by organic growth and favorable price/mix, Brown-Forman demonstrated its ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on consumer demand.
• Brands like Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey and Woodford Reserve were standout performers, showing organic net sales growth and capturing consumer attention through innovative campaigns and partnerships.

• Cintas managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
• The Uniform Rental and Facility Services segment experienced solid organic growth driven by increased volume and new customer acquisitions.
• The company’s First Aid and Safety Services segment revenue grew 16.4% organically, driven by strong demand for first aid products and services, as well as training and compliance solutions whereas its All Other segment revenue grew 14.7% organically, driven by growth in fire protection services and direct sale uniform businesses.

• Eastman delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it managed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
• The company made improvements in the Fiber business due to increased prices and operational performance.
• Supply-side factors, such as capacity reduction and effective capacity loss, have created tight markets and a focus on the security of supply.

• Hologic managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The company’s financial results surpassed expectations, driven by robust organic revenue growth in key divisions like Diagnostics, Surgical, and Breast Health excluding COVID-19, driven by new products, market expansion and customer loyalty.
• Hologic’s COVID-19 assay revenue was $233 million, down 47% sequentially, reflecting lower testing demand and increased competition.

• A market-timing device that classifies historical trend patterns/reversals in “buckets”, to generate a “matrix” showing the market’s average trend reversal “behavior” at the end of each trend “type”. 
• A purely statistical approach: using Bayesian Models to determine the probability of DAILY or WEEKLY trend reversal at precise LONG/SHORT support prices at fixed points in time.
• The analogy with the game of Blackjack: knowing the probability of a trend reversal can be 30% or 90% (not always =50%) can be a significant edge for the investor.

• Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Huatai.
• BSIH is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider. 
• In terms of shipment of automotive-grade high-computing power SoCs in 2022, it was the third largest provider globally, according to Frost & Sullivan.

• Black Sesame International Holding Ltd., a Xiaomi-backed designer of artificial intelligence-based self-driving computing chips, has filed for a Hong Kong IPO
• Black Sesame, which also counts Tencent Holdings Ltd. and SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. among its major investors, plans to use the IPO proceeds mainly to develop system-on-a-chip (SoC) designs and software for intelligent vehicles in the next three years.
• Bloomberg in January reported that the company expects to raise $200 million through the share sale, citing people familiar with the matter.

• The latest data of GC012F/GC007g at ASCO/EHA drove up share price, but the current clinical data do not necessarily guarantee the final druggability. So, we advise investors to be rational.
• Gracell’s pipeline may not solve the real pain points of CAR-T therapy. Until the global momentum of cell therapy is reversed, there’s no need to expect too much from Gracell.
• Gracell’s stock price would continue to fluctuate with positive clinical data or progress. However, the liquidity of this stock isn’t good. In this situation, both ups and downs are meaningless. 

• General Mills has just reported its full fiscal year results and investors are not impressed.
• Expectations of lower organic revenue growth and uncertainties around profitability would likely continue to weigh on the share price.
• Long-term investors, however, could take advantage of this near-term dynamic while enjoying the higher dividend.

• Towards the end of last year, I published the first liquidity ranking system for crypto assets, comparing each asset’s liquidity ranking to its market cap and investigating which token’s market cap is the most misleading from a liquidity standpoint.
• In Q1 of this year I provided an update to the ranking system as overall market liquidity hit 10 month lows. 
• The good news is that global liquidity has been more or less flat over Q2, with no further drops apart from  the tokens featured in the SEC lawsuits and a handful of exchange-specific drops in liquidity, such as Binance.US.

• Micron reported FQ3’23 revenues of $3.8 billion, up 2% sequentially and down 57% year-over-year.
• Despite upbeat AI notes among others, Micron quietly delivered more bad news than good with their overall outlook worsening in many key respects. 
• In the company’s own words, “Profitability and cash flow will remain extremely challenged for some time”. For “some time”, you could insert “at least 12 months”

• Cycle: Near term pullback a buy for a push into late June/early July (cycle has shifted right). Equities remain well supported. Increased volatility expected in July.
• Met the SPX 4,370 buy level with firmer support at 4,350. Rally bias for a minor new high in the coming week+.
• Measuring rally momentum for signs of a bigger stall cycle in July.

• Prices have been slashed and slashed again, on top of expensive incentives like free charging, cheap leases, & juicy subsidies. 
• But Tesla has been unable to ease elevated inventory in key markets.
• This signals even record deliveries will produce lower quality revenue and disappointing margins & profits for the second quarter.

• C&CE 1Q23A $2.1m, burn 1Q $1.6m, S-1MEF filed for raise
• YE22A Opex $34.2m vs. $14.1 y/y, Δ is redemptions/merger costs
• Warrants booked as liabilities (SEC de-SPAC ruling Apr 12, 2021)

• MariMed is a multi-state operator (MSO) in the US cannabis industry.
• It has a national footprint spanning six states: Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Ohio, and Missouri.
• MariMed focuses on limited-license markets and strives to be vertically integrated wherever possible. 

• Oracle’s upside in the near term might appear limited, but there is potential for higher dividend growth going forward.
• The debt level should be monitored closely by investors, but in my view does not present a major risk for Oracle’s dividend.
• The dividend yield remains low, but the debt level must be monitored by investors.

• First some caveats: while we have all probably read Charlie Munger’s quote “I never allow myself to hold an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do”, the reality is this is exceptionally uncommon and challenging.
• In fact, when investors mention risks about a company they like, they often deliberately choose strawman arguments from the other side and advertently or inadvertently ignore steelman arguments.
• I will try to avoid strawman bear cases (and boy there are many), and only outline the bear cases that indeed concern me as a shareholder.

• Receding credit risk and a more predictable inflationary environment will likely deliver tailwinds to cyclical stocks.
• The U.S. Government is set to throw its support behind the EV industry, and Ford might be a primary beneficiary.
• However, we are giving the stock the benefit of the doubt.

• Oddity Tech (ODD US) , innovative consumer-tech unicorn and a prominent player in the beauty industry, filed for a $100M U.S. IPO, with Goldman Sachs leading the offering.
• Founded in 2013 in Israel by CEO Mr. Holtzman and Chief Product Officer Ms. Holtzman-Erel, Oddity Tech (ODD US)  wants to disrupt the global beauty and wellness market.
• Founder-Led company delivered profitable high-growth at a scale and has a rapidly growing user base. Given the company’s attractive fundamentals, Oddity Tech is bound to have a very successful IPO.

• We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
• We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4300.
• The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170

• Earable Neuroscience, a US-headquartered deep-tech company that has developed a sleep tech wearable device, has secured undisclosed bridge funding from Samsung Ventures.
• Through this investment, Samsung Ventures plans to forge alliances within its local and global network to support Earable Neuroscience’s global expansion, including the Korean market.
• Established in 2018 by Vietnamese founder Tam Vu, the startup’s sleep tech wearable, FRENZ Brainband, incorporates cutting-edge neuroscience technology into a consumer wearable to enhance sleep quality, improve focus, and promote relaxation.

• Bitcoin briefly hit yearly highs over the weekend and is up 15% week-on-week.
• What’s driving this rapid surge in prices?
• While news of a Blackrock ETF filing is certainly a bullish catalyst, let’s see what the data says. 

• Soybeans spike due to weather worries The worst U.S. Midwest drought since 2012 expanded over the past week despite mild temperatures as a lack of rain across the heart of the American farm belt threatened newly seeded crops.
• Below-average rainfall and high winds also exacerbated drought conditions in many regions.
• In the early growing stage of the crops, drought can be compensated by more rain in the later stages.

• Impinj was a late beneficiary to the COVID-19 pandemic and could now be on the cusp of a correction in its revenue growth trajectory
• The developer of radio frequency identification (“RFID”) chips used in RFID tags benefited when companies were facing supply chain issues resulting in ordering much more inventory than necessary
• Consensus estimates are for another 36 percent increase in revenue in 2023 even though Impinj is heavily dependent on retail apparel

• Qualitative factors and key metrics suggest that Monster Beverage Corporation presents a GARP opportunity.
• The company is growing at scale and holds down a significant part of the energy drinks market.
• The generational consumer shift into stimulated drinks lends researchers much scope to delve into the prospects of Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ:MNST).

• This note follows up on the Steelcase 1QFY24 earnings release, management’s earnings conference call, and our earnings analysis note from June 22.
• Herein, we refresh our estimates for Steelcase.
• Steelcase has been tied to the fortunes of commercial/contract furniture, where the company is a global leader. 

• The adoption of AI promises to be highly disruptive and has to potential to improve profitability of companies that adopt the technology.
• It faces regulatory hurdles and risk-pricing challenges as insurance companies learn to price AI risk, but those problems are a few years away.
• In the near term, the technology rally appears extended and may need a breather.

• This article delves into the intricacies of Rabby Wallet, an innovative browser extension wallet devised by DeBank.
• The wallet is engineered to respond effectively to the needs of participants within the increasingly complex and rapidly expanding arena of Decentralised Finance (DeFi).
• In the realm of blockchain technology, where DeFi continues to grow and evolve, wallets such as Rabby are of paramount importance.