United States

• Packing giants Amcor Limited (AMCR US/AMC AU) and Berry Global Group (BERY US) announced they will combine in an all-stock transaction, with a ~63%/37% ownership split (respectively) in the MergeCo.
• Amcor will issue 7.25 Amcor shares for each Berry share, for a US$73.59/share implied price. US$650mn of benefits from identified cost, growth and financial synergies by end of third year.
• Closing, subject to shareholder and reg approvals, is targeted in the middle of 2025. The transaction has been unanimously approved by the boards of both Amcor and Berry.

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in late-2024/early-2025.

• During Tesla’s third quarter of 2024 financial report, several key points emerged that provide an overview of the company’s performance and strategic direction.
• One of the prominent highlights was Tesla’s achievement of record deliveries in a market experiencing overall industry declines.
• This emphasizes Tesla’s ability to navigate a challenging automotive landscape, an important consideration for investors assessing the company’s resilience and market positioning.

• 3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
• Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
• The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.

• QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.
• Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.
• Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. 

• During the third quarter of 2024, Expedia Group demonstrated several positive financial performance indicators and business dynamics, alongside addressing some challenges.
• Overall, the company exceeded expectations regarding gross bookings and earnings, although revenue met projections amidst challenges posed by weather and currency fluctuations.
• Noteworthy was the accelerated growth in gross bookings in its consumer segment for the second consecutive quarter, buoyed by strong performance from Brand Expedia, Vrbo’s return to growth, and favorable outcomes from international sales.

• Dynatrace reported a strong performance in its second quarter of fiscal 2025, showcasing solid financial results and effective execution of its strategic initiatives.
• The company posted an annual recurring revenue (ARR) increase of 19% year-over-year to $1.62 billion, propelled by robust expansion bookings, especially in Europe, and an improvement in booking seasonality related to a switch to 6-month sales compensation cycles.
• Subscription revenues grew by 20% year-over-year, further supporting the company’s financial momentum.

• EPAM Systems, Inc., a global leader in software development and digital platform engineering services, reported its third-quarter 2024 results, which were stronger than analysts anticipated.
• The company demonstrated revenue growth on both a year-over-year and sequential basis, signaling potential stabilization in the market.
• This growth was primarily fueled by increased customer engagement across various verticals, notably in life sciences and healthcare, financial services, software, and biotech.

• Insulet Corporation’s latest quarterly earnings call presents a mix of positive and cautious sentiment towards the company’s recent performance and future outlook.
• The company reported strong financial results with a significant revenue milestone, indicating healthy business momentum.
• Insulet’s total revenue growth for the third quarter was reported at 25%, driven primarily by a 26% increase in total Omnipod revenues.

• Cloudflare’s Q3 2024 financial results reflect a mixed performance characterized by areas of significant growth as well as certain challenges that require attention.
• During the quarter, Cloudflare achieved a revenue of $430.1 million, representing a 28% year-over-year increase.
• This was driven by strategic customer acquisition, notably the record addition of 219 large customers, many paying over $100,000 annually.

• It has been a relatively quiet week.
• Bitcoin has outperformed much of the market, resulting in an increase in its dominance, as highlighted in Thursday’s Crypto Moves #52.
• This was most likely driven by the intense buying pressure from MicroStrategy over the past week.

• Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500’s multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
• Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled “Buy the Pullback,” and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it’s time to buy the pullback again.
• We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).

• NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in AI-driven GPUs, is currently navigating turbulent waters with its latest Blackwell architecture chips.
• While the company has been riding high on record-breaking revenues and a surging demand for AI compute power, reports of overheating issues in Blackwell chips have cast a shadow over its otherwise stellar growth trajectory.
• According to recent disclosures, these state-of-the-art GPUs face severe thermal management challenges when configured in server racks holding up to 72 units.

• The Walt Disney Company’s recent fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results provided a comprehensive overview of both the progress and challenges faced by the company.
• CEO Bob Iger highlighted the company’s strategic positioning for growth, emphasizing their momentum as a result of specific strategies across various business segments.
• However, the commentary also reveals nuances in their operational dynamics and future outlook.

• The recent earnings call for Domino’s Pizza highlighted several key aspects of its financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market dynamics, revealing both promising areas and challenges.
• The company’s Hungry for MORE strategy appears to be yielding positive results domestically, but international markets face significant hurdles.
• Domestically, Domino’s Pizza has successfully leveraged its value-focused Hungry for MORE strategy.

• Compass Minerals Inc. recently reported its second-quarter fiscal 2024 results.
• The quarter demonstrated significant challenges, primarily attributable to unseasonably mild winter weather conditions across North America.
• The Salt segment, a core part of the company’s operations, was notably affected by these conditions, leading to a substantial decrease in deicing salt sales volumes, ultimately reflecting a 14% decline in segment revenue and a 7% drop in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year.

• AST SpaceMobile recently reported a challenging Q3, with widened losses overshadowing its operational progress.
• The company, which is transitioning from research and development (R&D) to commercial operations, highlighted key advancements such as the successful launch and activation of five Block 1 BlueBird satellites.
• These satellites are integral to AST SpaceMobile’s mission of creating a space-based cellular broadband network that directly connects with mobile phones without modification, addressing global connectivity gaps.

• Intuitive Machines presented a positive third-quarter 2024 performance with considerable revenue growth and strategic achievements.
• The company reported revenue of $58.5 million, marking more than a fourfold increase compared to the same quarter last year.
• This increase was driven by their core service pillars of delivery, data transmission, and infrastructure as services, coupled with key contract awards such as the Near Space Network Services (NSNS), valued up to $4.82 billion over a decade.

• Intuitive Machines presented a positive third-quarter 2024 performance with considerable revenue growth and strategic achievements.
• The company reported revenue of $58.5 million, marking more than a fourfold increase compared to the same quarter last year.
• This increase was driven by their core service pillars of delivery, data transmission, and infrastructure as services, coupled with key contract awards such as the Near Space Network Services (NSNS), valued up to $4.82 billion over a decade.

• SYM reported fiscal fourth quarter results that at first glance were better than expected, but really included several accounting events that seem to hide how SYM had a poor quarter.
• Along with the quarterly results, SYM disclosed a restatement of prior quarterly results where $39.1 million of high-margin revenue was transferred to the fourth quarter. 
• When we initiated coverage of SYM we were worried about the timing of revenue associated with Walmart (WMT) and not anticipating an accounting mess.

• European natural gas market facing uncertainty due to potential end of Russian gas flows through Ukraine
• North American LNG supply delays causing imbalance in global market
• Price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2526 dependent on weather, supply sources, and storage refill mandates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Celsius Holdings Inc.’s third-quarter 2024 earnings reveal a mixture of growth opportunities and challenges.
• The energy drink company has managed to maintain robust consumer demand and retail sales growth despite a dip in total revenue compared to the previous year.
• The company recorded a modest 7.1% increase in retail sales year-over-year for the quarter, with unit sales rising by 7.3%.

• Ionis Pharmaceuticals recently reported their third-quarter financial results for 2024, presenting a comprehensive view of its current position in the biotechnology sector.
• The company’s focal points include imminent product launches, ongoing clinical trials, and strategic pipeline developments—all set within the context of their financial performance and future outlook.
• The company is on the verge of launching its first independently marketed product, Olezarsen, for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), with an anticipated FDA action next month.

• Fortinet’s third-quarter financial results for 2024 showcase robust performance and a strategic focus on growth markets in the cybersecurity landscape.
• The company’s total revenue grew by 13%, a return to product revenue growth bolstered by strong service revenue expansion.
• Fortinet’s strong execution led to record gross and operating margins, with the latter increasing by 830 basis points to over 36%.

• Airbnb, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing a mixture of positives and negatives.
• The company experienced continued growth in Nights and Experiences Booked, with bookings reaching 123 million, and saw a 10% increase in revenue year-over-year to $3.7 billion.
• Net income stood at $1.4 billion, translating to a notable 37% net income margin.

• The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. 
• Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. 
• As long-term bulls, we like Southern Copper (SCCO US); under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  

• The third quarter 2024 financial results for Lyft, Inc. provide a complex picture of the company’s current standing and future outlook.
• On the positive side, Lyft reported gross bookings exceeding $4.1 billion, marking a 16% year-over-year increase.
• The company also saw strong demand across its services with a 9% growth in active riders and a 6% rise in ride frequency, propelled by various strategic initiatives such as the ‘Price Lock’ feature aimed at commuters.

• Galaxy Gaming is being acquired by Evolution AB for $3.20/share, with a 17% spread and minimal regulatory hurdles.
• OCI N.V. plans a $1bn capital return in H1 2025, equating to 40% of its market cap.
• Benson Hill’s buyout spread widened to 60% due to liquidity issues and ongoing buyout negotiations nearing completion.

• IonQ, Inc., a leading company in the quantum computing space, reported its results for the third quarter of 2024, showing considerable progress both financially and operationally.
• The company recognized $12.4 million in revenue for the quarter, surpassing its guidance range of $9 million to $12 million.
• This marks a year-over-year doubling of third-quarter revenue, highlighting robust growth and demand for IonQ’s quantum computing services.

• OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
• Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.
• The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.

• GXO Logistics’ latest earnings for the third quarter of 2024 painted a mixed yet informative picture of its financial performance and strategic positioning.
• The company reported record revenues of $3.2 billion, marking a substantial year-over-year increase of 28%.
• This robust top-line growth is partially attributed to an organic revenue growth of 3%, which has shown a sequential upward trend throughout the fiscal year.

• Howmet Aerospace’s third quarter 2024 results demonstrate significant performance gains amidst a complex operating environment.
• The company’s revenue growth was substantial at 11% year-over-year, with commercial aerospace driving much of this improvement with a 17% increase in revenue.
• The engine products and fasteners segments excelled, supported by robust structures performance.

• The Chemours Company’s third-quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture, reflecting both commendable strategic implementation and ongoing market challenges.
• The quarter witnessed a 1% increase in consolidated net sales to approximately $1.5 billion, driven by a 5% rise in volume, though partially offset by a 3% decline in pricing and a slight currency headwind.
• This reflects the company’s effective operational execution and successful navigation through previous disruptions, evidenced by year-over-year volume growth across all business segments.

• Cleveland-Cliffs presented its third-quarter 2024 results during a challenging period of weaker steel demand and pricing, largely attributed to reduced automotive production and high interest rates affecting consumer decisions.
• The company’s acquisition of Stelco, a Canadian steelmaker, was a notable development during this period, promising operational agility and cost efficiency.Cleveland-Cliffs reported a quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $124 million on 3.8 million tons of shipments.
• This was a decline from previous performance levels, which the company attributed to reduced activity in the automotive industry.

• Coherent Corp. recently held a discussion about its first-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025, presenting a mixed performance marked by notable progress in key areas and challenges in others.
• The company reported a 28% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $1.35 billion, driven by strong demand for AI-related datacom transceivers and improved performance in the telecom sector.
• Sequential revenue growth highlights the momentum in these segments.

• CVS Health’s recent third-quarter 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted view of the company’s performance and strategic direction.
• The company’s revenue reached approximately $95.4 billion, marking a 6% increase from the previous year.
• However, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09 indicate challenges, particularly within the Health Care Benefits (HCB) segment.

• Energy Transfer’s third quarter of 2024 results reveal several positive developments alongside some challenges, reflecting a complex operating environment.
• Financially, Energy Transfer generated an adjusted EBITDA of $3.96 billion compared to $3.54 billion in the same quarter of the previous year, indicating growth driven by record volumes across its pipelines and strong performance in crude and NGL exports.
• Despite the improved EBITDA, distributable cash flow attributable to partners remained flat at $1.99 billion year-over-year.

• Duolingo, a prominent player in the online language learning space, has reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, outlining both strengths and areas to watch.
• The company demonstrated robust growth in key metrics, including a 54% year-over-year increase in daily active users (DAUs), with its Family Plan onboarding 21% of its subscriber base.
• This impressive user growth, particularly after a high growth rate in previous years, suggests that Duolingo continues to successfully engage its expanding user base.

• Freshpet, Inc.’s third-quarter 2024 financial performance highlights both strengths and areas for cautious consideration.
• On the positive side, Freshpet reported its 25th consecutive quarter of 25% year-on-year growth, emphasizing its resilient sales momentum.
• Net sales reached $253.4 million, marking a 26% year-over-year increase.

• Cirrus Logic has reported strong financial performance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025.
• The company achieved record revenue and earnings per share, with revenue reaching $541.9 million.
• This figure was near the upper end of their guidance range and reflects strong demand for components used in smartphones.

• Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) reported mixed results for the third quarter of 2024, demonstrating both strengths and potential challenges in their operations.
• The company experienced a steady growth in adjusted revenue, which increased by 4% year-over-year.
• This growth was primarily driven by an acceleration in recurring revenue across its segments, notably in Banking and Capital Markets, with both segments achieving margin expansion.

• Vertex Pharmaceuticals recently reported its third-quarter earnings for 2024, presenting a picture of solid financial performance alongside significant advancements in its pipeline and product launches.
• Financially, Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $2.77 billion for the third quarter.
• This growth was underpinned by robust performance both in the U.S. and international markets, with U.S. revenues rising by 10% and international sales by 14%.

• Cardinal Health, Inc. reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, primarily driven by its Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment.
• CEO Jason Hollar highlighted the company’s effective management amidst a customer transition in its largest business segment, which still achieved a 16% growth in segment profit.
• The demand across various pharmaceutical categories, notably specialty and consumer health, played a significant role in this growth.

• Marriott International’s third-quarter financial performance for 2024 indicated a mixture of growth and existing challenges within the global hospitality landscape.
• The company reported a 6% year-over-year increase in net rooms, underscoring its robust expansion efforts and strong development activities.
• Global Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) rose 3% for the quarter, fueled by a 2.5% increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR), with the group segment leading the charge, posting a 10% rise in RevPAR, which highlights the sustained demand in this category.

• Illumina experienced a mixed third-quarter performance for 2024, illustrating both advancements and challenges in its operational landscape.
• The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion, matching its expectations but reflecting a 2% decrease year-over-year.
• This decline was linked to reduced instrument sales due to the launch-year comparisons of the NovaSeq X series and effects of capital constraints globally.

• BP’s revenue declined 11.3% YoY, missing estimates by 4.3%, while EPS fell 27.8% YoY, beating estimates by 3.8%. Underlying net profit dropped 31.2% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.
• BP’s Q3 performance was impacted by weak oil prices, lower refining margins, and soft trading results, leading to its lowest underlying net profit since Q3 2020.
• Total upstream production rose 3% YoY, with liquids production up 5%. BP also achieved 80% YoY growth in its EV charging business, selling 1 terawatt-hour of electricity globally.

• The latest update from United States Cellular Corporation, reflected in their third-quarter 2024 earnings, provides key insights into the company’s current standing and strategic direction.
• Several highlights from the reporting period illustrate a combination of potential opportunities and inherent challenges impacting the company’s operations and future outlook.
• On the positive side, United States Cellular Corporation showed substantial progress in monetizing its spectrum assets, despite the broader market challenges.

• LyondellBasell Industries recently held its earnings call to discuss the financial results of the third quarter of 2024.
• The earnings report provides several insights into the company’s financial health, market positioning, and strategic advancements.
• The third quarter results indicate how LyondellBasell is navigating a challenging market environment marked by fluctuations in raw material costs and subdued demand in various sectors.

• In Q3, TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts by 6.4% but missed EPS estimates by 3.7%. Revenue and adjusted net income fell by 2.8% YoY and 37%, respectively.
• TotalEnergies’ average liquids price realisation fell 2.4% YoY, European refining margins dropped 84.7%, while LNG price realisation rose 3.7% YoY.
• TotalEnergies’ Q3 cash flow fell 27% YoY to USD 6.8 billion. It announced USD 2 billion in Q4 buybacks and a 0.79 euro/share interim dividend.

• Bone Biologics is pursuing a better and more effective way of dealing with back pain requiring surgery by developing bone regeneration in spinal fusion using the recombinant human protein known as NELL-1/DBX, or NB1.
• The company released its 3Q2024 financial results that showed good cash, low debt and good cost controls.
• Recently, the company also announced the first human patients have been treated with NB1, marking an important milestone for BBLG.

• Management reiterates 1) growth accelerating on Advanced Logic (Gate All Around, Back Side Power), Advanced Packaging incl HBM, DRAM capacity additions  2) improving margins  3) energy-efficient computing driving materials innovation.
• The risk is Mature node Capex slowdown in China, which we think is underestimated for 2025. China revenue: AMAT 30%, ASML 47%.
• AMAT is trading at reasonable multiples on modest Consensus expectations, upside possible as 2nm and HBM accelerate. ASML is trading on rich multiples, on rich expectations, less room for upside.

• CCC Intelligent Solutions’ third-quarter fiscal 2024 performance highlighted both consistent financial growth and evolving challenges within the insurance and vehicle repair industries.
• The company reported a total revenue of $238 million, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding their guidance range.
• Adjusted EBITDA was $102 million, a 9% improvement from the previous year, supporting a strengthened adjusted EBITDA margin of 43%.

• Shell’s Q2 revenue fell by 7.4% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 3.1%. However, its revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 2.3% and 13.1%, respectively.
• Shell’s free cash flow rose 44.4% YoY to USD 10.8 billion, while its net debt fell to its lowest since 2015, dropping by 13.1% YoY to USD 35.2 billion.
• Shell’s LNG sales grew 6.4% YoY, while oil and gas production earnings rose 9% YoY, supported by a 3.1% production increase from new fields.

• Cadence Design Systems, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, recording impressive performance across various aspects of its business.
• Total revenue for the quarter surpassed $1.2 billion, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth.
• This was accompanied by a non-GAAP operating margin of 44.8% and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.64.

• EB showed a gradual sequential improvement in operating metrics in the third quarter. EB is anticipating greater positive gains in the number of event creators in the fourth quarter
• EB reported third quarter revenue of $77.8 million compared to our estimate of $76.1 million. EB did have a year over year decline in paid tickets and paying creators. 
• EB is projecting Q4 revenue of $74 million to $77 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10 percent. We were anticipating revenue of $74 million due to the seasonality.

• In Crypto Moves #18 from early March this year, we referred to this crypto bull market as the least speculative in the history of the crypto market.
• By Crypto Moves #35 in early July, we reaffirmed this view.
• Meanwhile, during this period, Bitcoin had outpaced almost every other altcoin.

• Leggett & Platt’s third quarter 2024 results reflect a challenging performance environment driven by several demand and operational pressures.
• Overall sales amounted to $1.1 billion, representing a 6% decline year-over-year.
• The decrease was primarily attributed to volume declines across all three business segments—Bedding Products, Specialized Products, and Furniture, Flooring and Textile Products—coupled with reductions in raw material-related selling prices.

• Balchem Corporation’s third-quarter results for 2024 highlight its resilience and adaptability amid a mixed economic environment, showcasing strengths that bolster its growth potential while also signaling areas for investor caution.
• The company posted impressive financial results, with revenues reaching $240 million, a 4.3% increase compared to the previous year.
• This growth was mainly driven by robust performances in the Human Nutrition & Health and Specialty Products segments.

• Cavco Industries, Inc. has presented its second quarter results for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a period mixed with challenges and growth opportunities.
• As a manufacturer of manufactured homes, modular homes, park model RVs, and commercial structures, Cavco’s performance in the quarter was notably impacted by external factors, particularly Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which caused disruptions in the Southeast United States, a key market for the company.
• Despite these disruptions, the company’s proactive measures and resilience contributed to minimal operational damage and a swift recovery, showcasing strong crisis management.

• Ford Motor Company presented its results for the third quarter of 2024, revealing a blend of strategic maneuvers and ongoing challenges.
• The earnings call highlighted several key points that could form the basis of an investment thesis.
• On the positive side, Ford has demonstrated significant progress in restructuring its global operations.

• On 12 November, Klarna announced that it confidentially filed public offering paperwork. The company is getting ready for an IPO in 1H 2025.
• Klarna’s valuation reached as high as $45 billion in 2021 which declined to as low as $6.5 billion. Its valuation has recently risen to about $14.6 billion. 
• Klarna generated 13.27 billion SEK in revenue (US$1.2 billion) in 1H 2024 (up 27% YoY). Operating margin improved significantly from -18% in 1H 2023 to -2% in 1H 2024.

• US market continues to see historical high; in the real estate space, we look at Prologis, the world’s largest logistics company
• We like the sector on the back of strong structural demand drivers and depleting supply.  Logistics is the future and we think Prologis is the name to own
• Broader real estate index is up 8.3% YTD, while PLD is down -15% YTD.  Valuation is attractive, we think PLD has room to catch up

• SharkNinja’s third quarter of 2024 financial performance highlighted several strengths and strategic initiatives that point to its robust market position and growth trajectory, balanced by some areas of concern that underline potential risks.
• Displaying a strong performance in adjusted net sales and adjusted EBITDA growth, SharkNinja reported substantial year-over-year increases, demonstrating resilience and strategic agility in a fluctuating economic environment.
• The global teams’ efforts mirrored in a 35% rise in adjusted net sales and 26% growth in adjusted EBITDA, showcasing strong operational execution and market responsiveness.

• Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500’s multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
• Last week’s 11/5/24 report titled “Buy the Pullback” discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
• The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025

• Vontier Corporation delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, with notable achievements in sales growth and operational improvements.
• The company reported a 3% increase in core sales, exceeding the high end of their guidance range, indicative of robust momentum across their convenience retail and fueling end markets.
• This success was bolstered by the increased adoption of their market-leading technologies, particularly in the Environmental & Fueling and Mobility Technologies segments.

• The Wendy’s Company recently held its fiscal 2024 third quarter earnings call, which provided in-depth insights into the company’s performance and strategic initiatives.
• The CEO, Kirk Tanner, and CFO, Gunther Plosch, discussed various aspects of the business operations, highlighting key areas of growth as well as challenges faced during the quarter.
• During the third quarter, The Wendy’s Company reported a global system-wide sales growth of 1.8%, with a modest 0.2% growth in same-restaurant sales.

• United States Steel Corporation (U.S. Steel) has reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, showcasing another period of robust financial performance despite the challenging global economic environment.
• The company ended the year with net earnings of $895 million, or $3.56 per diluted share, and adjusted net earnings for the fourth quarter were $167 million, or $0.67 per diluted share.
• These results were bolstered by better performance across both the Mini Mill and Tubular segments, and favorable year-end inventory adjustments in the North American Flat-Rolled segment.

• Peloton’s earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 demonstrate a balanced perspective of challenges and opportunities as the company maneuvers through a critical phase marked by leadership transitions and strategic realignment.
• The announcement that Peter Stern will assume the role of CEO and President starting January 1, 2025, heralds a potentially transformative phase for Peloton.
• Peter Stern brings substantial experience from previous roles at major corporations, likely setting a strong foundation for leadership and strategic direction.

• Eastman’s latest discussion primarily centered on navigating the prevalent market challenges and exploiting growth through innovation and strategic initiatives.
• As the world continues to reel under economic pressures, including high inflation and interest rates, Eastman envisions a recovery trajectory reinforced by strategic product developments and market expansions.
• Eastman indicates a mixed financial environment with several moving parts.

• Gentex Corporation reported an increase in net sales to $608.5 million for the third quarter of 2024, up from $575.8 million in the same period last year.
• Despite a 5% decline in global light vehicle production, Gentex outperformed its primary markets by 12%.
• The company experienced a gross margin of 33.5%, slightly up from 33.2% in the third quarter of the previous year, due to higher revenue levels and purchasing cost reductions, albeit slightly offset by unfavorable product mixes.

• TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.
• Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining. 
• The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.

• Blockchain technology provides decentralized, transparent, and immutable digital ledgers, revolutionizing how transactions and data are managed without reliance on centralized authorities or intermediaries.
• Tokens enable participation in blockchain ecosystems by providing access to services, governance rights, or value transfers, playing a key role in incentivizing user engagement and network growth.
• Foundations and companies shape the development of blockchain projects, issuing tokens to fund innovation, promote decentralization, and drive community-driven governance, supporting the evolution of Web3 technologies.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 3Q24 (September) results after the close on Wednesday.
• We remain confident in our inline projections for the quarter, and believe the company, with a strong, somewhat lower-risk Holiday movie lineup in 2024, the beginning of the ramp of the Authentic Brands and The Simpsons license expansions, and the potential upside for Dog Man and the company’s own Wild Manes line launch, is well positioned to drive top and bottom line upside into 2025.
• As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $30 price target for JAKK.

• Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
• The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
• Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

• SBC continues to expand its footprint organically and through strategic M&A to grow its franchisee network and revenue base.
• SBC can leverage its strong balance sheet and suite of solutions to lower the all-in costs for clinics to launch and / or extend their businesses and to support its overall expansion strategy.
• The rising acceptance of and popularity of aesthetic medicine in Japan and globally creates a tailwind for its growth, in our view.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $29 price target and projections for Guess?
• after visiting stores in Long Island and the Metro New York City area.
• We believe, with the Fall fashion season in full bloom, the company has continued to raise the stakes for elevation, escalating key categories such as sweaters, outerwear and activewear, while raising the stakes for denim and focusing even more attention on accessories as a key play for Holiday events/parties.

• IPAR continues to demonstrate its ability to outperform with its brand portfolio of prestige fragrances. IPAR provided preliminary third quarter 2024 sales estimate of approximately $425 million. 
• We believe the growth IPAR is reporting for the third quarter was the result of greater demand than retailers stocking more for the holidays.   
• IPAR highlighted the growth in its top two brands, Jimmy Choo and Montblanc, as primary reasons for the sales in the quarter. Lacoste and Cavalli were an additional boost.  

• A new all-time high for Bitcoin is within reach, which aligns with the strength we anticipated in last week’s Crypto Crisp.
• As we have repeatedly emphasized, this quarter is primed for significant price growth due to a convergence of favorable factors.
• These include increased U.S. Dollar liquidity, strong seasonal trends, Chinese economic stimulus, and the post-fourth Bitcoin halving phase, which has historically led to substantial returns.

• A lot has happened since we published our Disney thesis back in February.
• On the corporate front, Disney emerged victorious from its proxy battle with Nelson Peltz and managed to patch things up with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
• In media, Disney posted its first streaming profit—ahead of schedule—and secured the NBA’s coveted “A Package,” though it came with a hefty price tag.

• Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
• Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
• The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market’s way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.

• Nextracker’s first-quarter earnings for the fiscal year 2025 have offered a mixed yet promising insight into the company’s financial and operational trajectory.
• The company reported a significant 50% year-on-year growth in revenue and recorded its highest-ever adjusted EBITDA.
• These figures underscore Nextracker’s strong performance, particularly in a financial landscape characterized by a keen focus on renewable energy solutions.

• Netflix’s third-quarter performance for 2024 highlights several key developments that provide a nuanced view of its position in the competitive streaming market.
• On the financial front, Netflix delivered strong results, surpassing expectations on both earnings per share ($5.40 vs. $5.12 expected) and revenue ($9.83 billion vs. $9.77 billion expected), reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth.
• The company added 5.1 million new subscribers, slightly above Wall Street expectations, bringing its total membership to 282.7 million.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
• As expected, the decision to start the key Halloween period early was a material success, with multiple rollouts and newness and inventory flows ensuring key sales and the ability to satisfy shoppers for the season later.
• Further, driving key newness in Sanrio, and favorites such as Nightmare Before Xmas, and the launch of Bluey and Bingo assured a strong season.

• Mammoth Energy has reached a settlement agreement with PREPA, allowing them to focus on their core business operations
• The settlement will provide Mammoth with approximately $188 million in total settlement proceeds, improving their financial flexibility and supporting growth initiatives
• This agreement will help boost Mammoth’s financial position and could lead to future growth opportunities for the company

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In a move that has caught the attention of the investment community, activist investor Jana Partners is reportedly pushing for a sale of Lamb Weston (NYSE: LW), a prominent player in the frozen potato product market.
• This development comes on the back of Lamb Weston’s recent earnings report, which delivered solid sales figures but highlighted challenges in global restaurant traffic and manufacturing costs.
• The company’s resilience, despite a difficult operating environment, has placed it in a unique position, making it an attractive acquisition target for both strategic buyers and private equity firms.

• Notably, NZ-1 is the first large-scale alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) project to receive a DOE loan commitment. NZ-1 is a 60 million gallon per year sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project.
• The NZ-1 project aims to produce SAF with potential for net-zero or even negative carbon intensify (CI) impact on airlines through a highly electrified and optimized production process, onsite wind power, climate-smart agricultural practices from regional corn growers, and potential carbon capture and sequestration.
• According to Gevo, NZ-1 will have the lowest production cost particularly when measured as the cost of carbon abatement. 

• First Advantage is the industry leader in background screening, identity, and verification solutions
• They acquired Sterling Check for ~$2.2B and are bullish on the combined entity
• Despite initial concerns about leverage, FA expects significant cash flow and synergies to exceed expectations, forecasting mid-teens FCF per share growth and potential for further upside

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Seller understanding that product may not sell immediately, similar to rainy day insurance with put options
• Tight correlation between supply, demand, and prices in liquid markets like put options
• Market risk climate currently influenced by high implied volatility due to upcoming events like elections, similar to date certain macro events in the past like Brexit or company earnings dates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Haemonetics Corporation’s first quarter fiscal year 2025 results reveal mixed outcomes in a challenging market scenario.
• The company reported a revenue of $336 million, which represents an 8% increase on a reported basis and a 3% organic growth.
• Despite the revenue growth, the adjusted earnings per diluted share decreased by 3% to $1.02, reflecting some strain from operational challenges and the dynamic market conditions.

• The Chemours Company faced various challenges in the second quarter of 2024, yet demonstrated resilience and adaptability in managing these issues.
• Key points from the earnings call include the impact of a severe drought on their titanium dioxide production at Altamira, Mexico, which led to unplanned downtime and an $8 million cost for the quarter.
• Despite this, Chemours was proactive in addressing the immediate needs of affected employees and the community while optimizing production to meet customer demands, achieving a 16% increase in volumes compared to the first quarter.

• nCino has posted its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, delivering performance that exceeded initial forecasts in several key areas, including subscription revenues and non-GAAP operating income.
• The company has observed a notable improvement in the financial services industry in the United States compared to the previous year.
• nCino’s growth in the U.S. has been robust, particularly within its existing customer base which seems keen on leveraging the company’s expanded platform capabilities.

• Nexstar Media Group’s second quarter of 2024 delivered robust overall performance as the company continued to showcase its ability to navigate challenging market dynamics effectively.
• As discussed during the recent earnings call, Nexstar achieved record total net revenue and distribution revenue, underscoring its strategic success in optimizing revenue streams amid continued industry shifts.
• Particularly noteworthy was the substantial growth in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, which highlights disciplined execution across operational facets.

• PBF Energy’s second quarter 2024 earnings presentation reveals a mixed financial landscape marked by challenges and strategic achievements.
• Despite experiencing weaker-than-expected earnings, the company successfully maintained a robust cash position and further advanced its operational goals.
• The quarter faced unusual market conditions where RIN-adjusted crack spreads saw a significant decrease, contributing to tighter margins across the board.

• Boat OEM industry facing drop in demand post high sales period due to Covid
• MasterCraft has strong position in ski/wake category, a niche market
• Despite challenges from tepid retail demand and high inventory levels, MasterCraft could benefit from ski/wake category strength in long term

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• IRDM started 2024 with changes to its reporting metrics and that trend continued when with Q3. 
• When IRDM reported third quarter 2024 results, the Company disclosed it would experience a decline in reported IOT subscriber metrics.   
• The change subscriber count would not impact IRDM’s revenue due to contract pricing. It could create negative headwind in 2025

• Marathon Holdings’s second quarter of 2024 brought both the continuation of bold initiatives and a renewal of challenges marked by increased operational expenses and pressure on profitability.
• The company underlined its commitment to expanding operations and scaling infrastructure, leading to notable achievements such as strategic acquisitions and technological advancements.
• Noteworthy is the growth in the company’s hash rate and the acquisition of the Garden City data center, which collectively aim to steer Marathon Holdings towards reaching an operational hash rate of 50 exahash by year-end.

• DT Midstream reported strong financial results in the second quarter of 2024, continuing to align with their full-year plans.
• President and CEO David Slater confirmed the reaffirmation of their 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range and provided a positive outlook for 2025.
• The quarter highlighted several strategic advancements, particularly in organic growth projects which are expected to drive future earnings.