United States

• ECVT has navigated a challenging 2023, marked by unforeseen external factors that have made accurate quarterly forecasting a formidable task
• As the year comes to a close, ECVT is seizing an opportunity during the seasonal refinery downtime to expedite its capital expenditure plans from 2024.
• ECVT reported third quarter sales of $173.3 million compared to our estimate of $171.3 million. The miss was the result of greater than expected slowdown in ecoservices segment

• ACCO reported third quarter results without the expected back to school benefit. Instead, ACCO focused on profitable sales helping to lift gross margin and report higher earnings results
• Retailers continue to tightly manage their inventory levels and the trend is expected to remain in the fourth quarter. 
• ACCO remains a free cash flow investment story. We are not expecting growth in 2024 putting greater pressure on how much free cash flow ACCO can generate 

• This note corrects the version that was published on November 2. Due to errors in our model, the full-year estimate for 2024 was not calculated properly.
• The correct full-year 2024 EPS estimate is $2.65.
• We are raising our non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS estimates for 4Q23 and 2024 following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report on Tuesday, October 31, 2023.

• Portfolio strength and market weakness. At a recently held Investor Day, RYAM management highlighted its cellulose product portfolio, the company’s biomaterials initiative, and the current state of the industry in the wake of the G-P closure announcement.
• RYAM also provided an update on 2023 guidance and a look at 2024 and 2027 EBITDA bridges.
• Asset evaluation proceeding to the next round. Following the Investor Day, RYAM announced that it engaged Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor to explore the potential sale of its paperboard and high-yield pulp (HYP) assets located at its Temiscaming site, as it advances its initiative to expand into higher-growth, higher-margin specialty businesses and reduce its exposure to commodity cellulose markets.

• UI fiscal first-quarter results (September) fell short of consensus estimates, primarily due to underperforming sales in the enterprise segment.
• Our initial expectations included the anticipation of soft demand for Ubiquiti, which was compounded by our belief in the enterprise spending momentum continuing
• Ubiquiti’s fiscal first-quarter revenue came in at $463.1 million, falling short of our estimate of $547.9 million. Historically, the quarter has been a strong period, making this deviation particularly noteworthy

• TPL Summary Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reported third quarter results where a decline in daily production led to lower than expected oil and gas royalties.
• The rate of production has always been the variable part of TPL’s results. In Q3 production levels were impacted by the summer heat in Texas causing abnormal electricity levels
• TPL reported third quarter revenue of $158.0 million compared to our estimate of $178.7 million

• ASRT has not had any news to rekindle investor interest since reporting second quarter results. ASRT is scheduled to report third quarter results on November 8, 2023
• Ahead of the news, we are readjusting our expectations for Indocin. We are minimizing the revenue potential from Indocin in our earnings model.
• Going forward, Rolvedon becomes the primary revenue generator. ASRT should generate positive net income with Rolvedon sales ramping

• HWKN reported fiscal second quarter (September) results with improved gross margin and continued reversal of last in first out (“LIFO”) reversals
• HWKN converted inventory to cash that was then used to reduce the debt balance allowing HWKN to acquire two more water treatment businesses
• The quarter included a sharper decline in industrial sales than expected. However, the higher gross margin in water treatment and health and nutrition segments were able to offset the impact

• Web3 and NFTs is a green field opportunity for forward-thinking brands. It can create win-win opportunities for brands and consumers. Adidas, Nike, TIME, and Gucci capitalized early.
• The next generation of brands embracing NFTs can draw valuable insights from previous brand experiments, learning from their successes while avoiding their mistakes.
• We pinpoint four fundamental pillars that can propel brand engagement in the real world. And how NFTs are powerful tools that can enrich each pillar

• Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y.
• Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR?
• Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.

• The sickness in Silicon Carbide started at On semi.
• Let’s look through the results and see the drivers, the big deal, and what we should do about it.
• The market freaked out about Silicon Carbide, specifically On semiconductor, saying that automotive demand for the year will be weaker.

• Duolingo shares have outperformed in 2023, with shares up ~115% over the year versus ~26% gain on the Nasdaq. The company priced its IPO at $102 a share in 2021.
• EdTech unicorn achieved the highest-ever MAUs and DAUs in 2QFY23, while paid subscribers reached 5.2M, ~7% of MAUs. Management raised top-line and profitability guidance for FY23. 
• With a market cap of ~$7.4B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~13x and ~10x EV/Rev on my FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.

• We are raising our non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS estimates for 4Q23 and 2024 following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report on Tuesday, October 31, 2023.
• Our sales estimates have moderated. Following the 3Q23 report, margins should be sustainably stronger.
• HNI reported 3Q23 adjusted EPS of $0.93, $0.30 better than consensus. Sales were roughly in line. 

• We hosted a fireside chat with Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Directors Mark D. Gordon.
• This report contains a transcript of the fireside chat from October 12, 2023, which can be accessed on demand.
• Deep roots and unique capabilities. Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. is a company with nearly 30 years of experience exploring and recovering deep-sea sites, amassing more than 24,000 hours of deep-sea experience, and exploring more than 74,000 square kilometers of the seafloor in the process.

• Q323 revenues of $5.8 billion, $100 million above midpoint, up 7.5% QoQ and up 4% YoY. Net income of $299 million, significantly up from $27 million in the second quarter.
• Forecasted Q423 revenues of $6.1 billion at the midpoint, up ~5% QoQ
• MI300 forecasted to hit > $2 billion in 2024 making it the fastest product ramp to $1 billion in the company’s history

• Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.
• No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.
• We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

• PACCAR managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, with net income surging by 60% year-over-year to a historic $1.23 billion, accompanied by a 23% increase in revenues.
• PACCAR Parts also played a pivotal role in the company’s success, with third-quarter revenues reaching $1.58 billion and Parts pretax profits increasing by 10% to $412 million.
• PACCAR Financial achieved an impressive pretax income of $134 million in the financial sector in the third quarter.

• Waste Management delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations but surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
• The solid waste business was the driving force behind this achievement, with organic revenue growth in collection and disposal aligning well with expectations.
• The resilience of solid waste volumes, with positive trends in commercial volumes and special waste growth, stood out.

• General Electric Company delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
• Orders increased by double digits, with services up by 15% and equipment up by 22%, driven primarily by the commercial aerospace sector.
• The aerospace segment, in particular, experienced substantial growth, with commercial engines and services leading the way.

• Illinois Tool Works delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
• The company had relatively stable organic growth in the quarter, with a 2% increase on an equal-day basis.
• Operating margin for the third quarter reached 26.5%, marking a 200-basis point increase compared to the previous year.

• 3M Company delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
• This success has positioned the company for a promising conclusion to the year 2023.
• The company also addresses potential risk and uncertainty by resolving significant litigation matters, such as Combat Arms and PFAS litigation.

• Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The company achieved an unprecedented quarterly underlying revenue growth over two decades and reported substantial growth in adjusted EPS.
• Marsh McLennan Agency acquired Graham Company, a top-100 US insurance and benefits broker and risk management consultancy, bolstering the company’s Mid-Atlantic presence.

• The Sherwin-Williams Company delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
• In the third quarter, Sherwin-Williams’ Paint Stores Group exhibited commendable resilience, with a 3.6% increase in sales, despite a demanding 21.5% comparison.
• Within the Paint Stores Group, the Protective & Marine sector emerged as the fastest-growing, achieving double-digit percentage sales growth against a mid-teens comparison.

• Southern Copper Corporation delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, demonstrating resilience and adaptability.
• Copper, constituting a significant 75% of their sales, faced a marginal 9% decline in production, primarily due to diminished ore grades in the Cuajone mine.
• Amidst these challenges, Southern Copper remained proactive, predicting a 6% increase in copper production for the year 2023, aiming for 917,000 tons.

• The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No “decisive” breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.
• Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers
• Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.

• Alphabet Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the quarter, with significant growth in its Search and YouTube segments, as well as momentum in Cloud services.
• The goal is to provide more diverse information and multiple perspectives in search results while incorporating ads.
• The company enables developers and organizations to build transformative products and services, mainly through Google Cloud, which witnessed continued growth, showcasing innovations in infrastructure, data, AI, workspace collaboration, and cybersecurity solutions.

• This is our first report on energy infrastructure major, Cheniere Energy Inc.
• The company performed decently in the previous quarter as global inventory levels reached historic highs.
• The U.S.’s mild climate and increased production kept Henry Hub prices below $3 during the quarter, encouraging coal-to-gas switching and boosting power sector demand.

• AT&T Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, prioritizing investments in 5G and fiber technologies to expand their customer base while ensuring profitability.
• In the wireless sector, its consistent go-to-market strategy continues to attract high-value subscribers, exemplifying the resonance of its customer-centric approach.
• Besides these positive results, the company launched AT&T Internet Air to deliver uninterrupted and dependable internet connectivity to small company proprietors.

• This is our first report on Avantor, Inc, a well-known provider of mission-critical products to the healthcare industry as well as other domains.
• The company delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• Market trends weakened sequentially, particularly in biopharma, where larger pharmaceutical customers moderated their spending, and small biotech companies faced ongoing funding constraints.

• This is our first report on energy equipments and services provider, Baker Hughes.
• Despite global economic uncertainty and fluctuating commodity prices, Baker Hughes remains optimistic about the outlook for the year, emphasizing a durable upstream spending cycle driven by international and offshore markets.
• Baker Hughes continues to optimize its corporate structure with a cost-reduction strategy and a focus on achieving higher margins and returns.

• American Express Company delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, continuing the impressive trajectory of its financial performance.
• The company reported its 7th consecutive quarter of tangible results, with significant revenues reaching $15.4 billion, showcasing a 13% year-over-year increase.
• The company further introduced product improvements and analytics advancements to its digital cash flow management hub, American Express Business Blueprint.

• The Coca-Cola Company managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The company had strong organic revenue growth, improved operating margins, and earnings per share growth.
• With 11% organic revenue growth driven by higher volume, pricing actions, and carryover pricing, Coca-Cola maintained its industry’s vibrancy.

• This is our first report on Copart Inc, a well-known online auctions and vehicle remarketing services provider.
• With global revenue increasing by nearly 13%, including a favorable currency impact, the company demonstrated its ability to drive solid financial results.
• With solid profits and cost efficiency, Copart is set to weather market changes and maintain global service excellence.

• This is our first report on health-tech player, Align Technology Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
• Notably, 195,000 teens and kids commenced Invisalign clear aligner treatment in Q2, marking a 7% sequential increase and a significant 10% year-over-year growth.
• Total Clear Aligner revenues for Q2 amounted to $832.7 million, reflecting a 5.4% sequential and 4.3% year-over-year increase.

• Intel’s results last week beat expectations by a wide margin, with margins recovering better than expected by the Street and guided to keep improving through 4Q23E.
• New Meteor Lake chips for PCs, branded as ‘Intel Core Ultra’ will officially launch December 14th and are expected to drive demand for new AI-optimized PCs in 2024E.
• Intel said that the PC industry completed its inventory digestion in 1H23, drove sequential demand growth in 3Q23, and this is expected to continue into 4Q23E.

• TSMC’s manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
• ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
• Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.

• Impinj reported third quarter results affirming the slowdown in sales volume for endpoint ICs with hopes the current softness comes to an end by the first quarter of 2024
• Concurrent with the decline in demand is the increase in endpoint IC availability from competitors
• We continue to believe the near-term fundamentals are not as strong as the stock depicts and the business is vulnerable to further headwinds, especially related to endpoint IC pricing.

• ATNI is benefiting from its capital expenditure investments through an increase in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, but it has come with the price of higher interest expense
• ATNI reported third quarter results showing subscriber growth in each of its markets, but that was not enough to mend the cost of capital that has increased this year
• ATNI is now projecting 2024 capital expenditures to decline materially in what could result in improving ATNI’s debt balance over the next four quarters

• TRS reported third quarter results where the packaging business continues to stabilize from inventory destocking while the aerospace segment continues to grow as fast as possible
• The packaging business has gone through restructuring that should lead to higher profit margin as customers begin to increase their order activity
• Improved supply chains are aiding the sales growth in aerospace. The growth in aerospace should help push cash flow higher and offset the softness in packaging

• Q323 revenues of $2.40 billion, at the upper end of the guidance range, up 2% QoQ but down 12.5% YoY
• Current quarter revenue forecast of $2.45 billion, essentially flat sequentially
• Services revenue on track for ~8% YoY growth despite overall revenues tracking to an 8.6% YoY decline..

• US Banks’ office credit exposures represent a big part of the sector’s credit quality concerns, given the decline in office space occupancy and rising interest rates
• Industry data shows that bank funding costs are rising fast, and 3Q23 bank spread trends are mixed; banks with greater mortgage exposure are potentially at greater risk of narrowing spreads
• We stick with Capital One for its high lending spreads, negligible mortgage exposure and limited office credit exposure with high coverage; Capital One also has healthy overall NPL coverage

• CARGO Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech company developing treatments for various lymphomas, filed for an IPO to fund its Phase 2 clinical trials of CRG-022, a lead program in the pipeline. 
• The biotech firm was backed by founding investor Samsara BioCapital and top-tier healthcare VC firms, including Third Rock Ventures, Perceptive Advisors, and Nextech Invest.
• The company’s lead program, CRG-022, is focused on patients with large B-cell lymphoma whose disease relapsed and targets CD-22 that has been expressed in 81% to 100% of DLBCL patients. 

• Q323 revenues of $14.2 billion, some $800 million above the guided midpoint, down 8% YoY but up 10% sequentially.
• Current quarter revenue guided up QoQ to $15.1 billion at the midpoint, shares up 10% 
• Intel is betting big on a return to a 300 million unit PC TAM. Is this realistic?

• Traditional equities confer specific rights to their holders, such as voting power and dividends. Tokens offer distinct advantages, including implementation versatility, composability—especially within DeFi—and other functionalities unattainable with securities.
• The innovative designs of tokens play a pivotal role; they not only channel value back to the token holders but also exert a direct impact on the token’s market value.
• In this report, we explore four value accrual mechanisms implemented by tokens. These include: (i) Buyback and Burn; (ii) Real Yield; (iii) Tax-Tokens; and (iv) Book Value Tokens

• Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
• That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
• Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

• Hollysys (HOLI US), a leading automation control system solutions provider in China, has been subject to at least six indicative Offers since December 2020, ranging from US$15.47/share to $US$25/share. 
• Yue Xu and Lei Fang, the co-chief operating officers of Hollysys, who previously tabled a NBIO of US$23.00/share in August 2021, have now pitched a US$25/share proposal.
• What is different this time? >32% of the share registry has banded together to demand changes. That’s dramatically different vs previous Offers.

• Ocean Power Technologies entered a contract with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement to provide a WAM-V 16 Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) equipped with an integrated quadcopter aerial drone that should help in protecting vital marine species and combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities in critical habitats.
• OPT and WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement are teaming up to use unmanned surface and aerial vehicles to identify, track, and gather information on people who are harming marine life and ecosystems through illegal activities
• Additionally, the company also received an additional volume order from Sulmara worth $1.6 million, a prominent player in offshore services, of WAMV 16 uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs), making this the largest single order of WAM-Vs to date.

• SHEN is expanding its network footprint with the acquisition of Horizon Telecom for $385 million in cash and stock.
• SHEN is purchasing Horizon for the network footprint and the sales ability to capture commercial customers compared to the majority of SHEN’s customers being residential
• The valuation becomes financially reasonable to understand when considering SHEN is paying approximately $51 thousand per fiber miles

• NTGR benefited from an increase in demand for premium wireless mesh systems and routers in the third quarter resulting in a non-GAAP profit
• The return of normalcy should allow NTGR to convert its on hand inventory to cash over the next two quarters. NTGR’s cash balance should continue to rise
• A softer environment for SMB products forces us to reassess our model with NTGR guiding gross margin down

• HNI reports 3Q23 on Tuesday, October 31 before the market opens, with its earnings conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET. 
• We expect 3Q23 non-GAAP EPS of $0.64 on consolidated sales of $713 million. Consensus is $0.63 EPS on consolidated sales of $713 million.
• In 3Q22, HNI delivered $0.71 in non-GAAP EPS on consolidated sales of $598.8 million.

• On October 25, Aspira Women’s Health announced that a poster on its in-development miRNA-based ovarian cancer test was presented at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Special Conference in Cancer Research: Ovarian Cancer.
• The poster, titled, “Improving the diagnostic accuracy of an ovarian cancer triage test using a joint miRNA-protein model,” highlighted data showing miRNA’s potential to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive diagnostic tests.
• The study showed that the addition of miRNA improved the detection of early-stage ovarian cancers and that diagnostic performance improved even further when using a combination of approaches, including miRNA, proteins, and metadata. 

• Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) update notes a new MBO proposal at US$25 per share, a bidders shortlist in several weeks and an update on the special meeting. 
• The update suggests several potential bidders and enough shareholders with the required record date to convene the special meeting to appoint independent directors. 
• The MBO proposal, while potentially a delaying tactic, suggests that the Board are under pressure for a solution and is aiming for a friendly takeover. 

• When EOFlow (294090 KS) was suspended on the 11th October, and ceased global sales, either the Medtronic (MDT US) deal was (largely) toast; or it was a tactical move. 
• I’m firmly in the latter camp. Insulet‘s lawsuit was expected. And completing the transaction enables the more financially and legally resource-rich MDT to become the party to the litigation.
• The SPA between Jesse Kim and MDT was expected to complete on 25 October. That was not a hard date. It has now been pushed out to 3 January 2024. 

• Crypto prices are still tracking our expected cycle trend, and the next big test is whether we see another period of consolidation — or if the breakout is finally near.
• We outline a few notable risks in the near term that may stand in the way of the next crypto uptrend: stagnant liquidity, buyer exhaustion, further tightening in financial conditions
• We don’t see these risks as long-term trends and view any downside volatility as an opportunity to increase exposure to the best assets at even better entry prices.

SIGA Technologies has announced the formation by the European Commission of a joint procurement mechanism to source oral TPOXX initially involves 13 countries and is open to all countries in the EU and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This is in anticipation of an initial $18m order of TPOXX in the next 60 days from EU/EFTA member countries; As such, management expects total (global) orders of $164m in FY23. This development allows participating EU/EFTA member countries to acquire courses of oral TPOXX in the near term and efficiently order additional quantities, provided the minimum quantity thresholds are met. While we expect the company’s near-term (H223 and FY24) revenues to be dominated by the replenishment of US government stockpiles, the announced European joint procurement mechanism establishes an important gateway to access an important market and creates longer-term upside revenue potential. Management maintains its FY23 pre-tax operating income guidance of $90–100m.