United States

• We’ve discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it’s a normal pullback
• Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
• The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.

• In June quarter Starbucks comparable store sales increased 46% YoY and reached to 80% of the level in the same period of 2021.
• China revenue increase purely came from transaction, but not average ticket.
• We believe Starbucks China data can be a good monitor of Chinese economy.

• CMB and Frontline Ltd (FRO US) smoke the peace pipe: CMB will buy Frontline out of Euronav NV (EURN US) at $18.43/share (25% premium) and agree to Euronav selling 24 VLCCs to FRO.
• After an EGM gives the green light, CMB will launch a mandatory $18.43/share cash offer for Euronav. The three-way transaction is fairly priced (1.0x P/NAV) for all players, including the Euronav minorities.
• There shouldn’t be any antitrust issues. Spread is 4.02%/7.66% (gross/annualised assuming settlement by 30 April 2024). Recommendation is long and tender (there won’t be any squeeze-out).

• For many who don’t hold powerful passports, securing a travel visa often comes with cumbersome paperwork, prolonged waiting periods, and substantial costs, thus posing a significant barrier to international travel.
• One startup is bidding to solve this problem. Launched in 2021, Atlys allows users to apply for visas from anywhere in the world through its platform.
• Aside from unifying the process in one place, the platform helps predict visa processing time while reducing rejection rates.

• CarMax, Inc. delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations but failed to surpass the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
• Despite ongoing challenges in the market, the company’s strategic actions have yielded positive outcomes and positioned it for future success.
• In the quarter, CarMax’s diversified business model generated total sales of $7.1 billion, attributed to lower retail and wholesale volume and prices.

• Genuine Parts Company delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
• The company reported total sales of $2.3 billion for the quarter, marking an impressive increase of $125 million.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• In the second quarter, GoDaddy delivered on-par revenues and below-par earnings while continuing to offer diverse solutions to a global customer base.
• Their robust business health is evidenced by their acquisition of high-quality customers, strong retention rates, and improved attachment rates.
• Customers are increasingly bundling new solutions, reflecting the company’s innovation and driving higher monetization through attachment and pricing while ensuring strong retention rates.

Immix has announced encouraging updated clinical data for NXC-201, a B cell maturation antigen (BCMA) targeting CAR-T therapy, which is being developed by majority-owned subsidiary Nexcella, in both multiple myeloma (MM) and amyloid light chain amyloidosis (ALA). The updated data for MM patients indicate an overall response rate (ORR) of 95%, notably higher than comparable CAR-T trials for MM, and for ALA show a 100% ORR in heavily pre-treated patients. The therapy has the potential to be the first outpatient CAR-T therapy, which would address many of the current CAR-T challenges with cost and access. With its recent $9.6m raise, we estimate Immix has an operating cash runway into Q424, from Q224 previously. Adjusting for the pro-forma cash of $22.2m, our valuation for Immix increases to $90.7m or $4.2/share (from $81.1m or $5.0/share).

• Interpublic Group of Companies delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter with revenues below the analyst consensus.
• The company reported a 1.7% decrease in organic revenue before billable expenses in the second quarter of the year, compared to the 7.9% organic growth in the same quarter of the previous year.
• Despite these challenges, Interpublic Group of Companies observed growth in areas such as media offerings, healthcare, public relations, and experiential offerings.

• Jabil Inc. delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent quarter with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
• The core margins increased by 40 basis points to 5%, accompanied by a 12% growth in earnings and a 13% growth in earnings per share.
• Remarkably, Jabil generated over $1 billion in free cash flows, highlighting the resilience of their business model in the face of market fluctuations.

• Marsh McLennan delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result, showcasing strong performance across its businesses and regions, continuing its impressive streak of underlying revenue growth.
• The company reported an 11% underlying revenue growth on top of a 10% increase in the second quarter of the previous year.
• Marsh McLennan remains optimistic about its full-year outlook, expecting high single-digit underlying revenue growth, margin expansion, and strong growth in adjusted EPS for 2023.

• Micron Technology, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
• Their management has provided insights into the ongoing underutilization charges and inventory write-downs that have impacted the company’s financials.
• This rise in underutilization has led to corresponding charges in the fourth quarter, which are expected to continue into fiscal year 2024.

• Nike Inc. delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
• The company managed a decent growth amidst various challenges over recent years, including societal, geopolitical, global health issues, and supply chain disruptions.
• With revenues increasing from $39 billion in fiscal 2019 to over $50 billion, Nike’s growth rate surpasses the overall industry.

• Key milestone in FDA approval. On October 6, Marizyme, Inc. (MRZM) announced a key milestone in its growth strategy, with FDA approval of its flagship DuraGraft (DG) technology for the US market.

• Improved outcomes when used in cardiac care. DG has been proven to result in significantly improved outcomes and lower costs for cardiac surgery through multiple clinical trials as well as utilization in selected markets in Europe and Asia where adoption has recently accelerated.

• Reflecting that, YTD DG-driven revenue is already more than double the level of 2022.

• Paychex, Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
• The company has commenced fiscal year 2024 with robust results, including a 7% growth in total revenue and an 11% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share.
• Strong new sales revenue growth was driven by continued demand for HR technology and advisory solutions.

• Carnival Corporation & plc delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, firmly establishing its position as a leader in the industry.
• The company’s net income surpassed an impressive billion, while EBITDA exceeded billion.
• Additionally, Carnival exceeded its revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income guidance for the quarter, demonstrating the strength of its operations.

• Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings.
• Walgreens’s quarter was marked by solid sales growth and a return to adjusted earnings growth.
• The main part of this plan is the launch of “Walgreens Health,” a technology-enabled care model that will give people in local communities more personalized health care.

• Darden Restaurants, Inc. delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
• This growth highlights the company’s ability to drive profitable sales through a solid business model and unwavering strategy.
• To fortify its brands, Darden Restaurants highlights its unique qualities through marketing initiatives that elevate brand equity, prioritize simplicity in execution, and maintain profitability.

• This is a one-time special report on EngageSmart Inc, a customer engagement and integrated payment solutions player that is under the spotlight following rumors that General Atlantic LLC is mulling over selling the company.
• The company’s financial health amplifies its allure, boasting a significant 28% year-over-year surge in revenue for Q2, reaching an impressive $94.4 million.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• Calima Energy (CE1 AU); target price of A$0.45 per share: Operating update in Canada – The 3-well Pisces drilling programme has now been completed.
• 3Q23 production levels continue to be affected by weather related energy cuts and unforeseen work-overs.
• Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; target price of C$6.40 per share: 3Q23 update – 3Q23 production was 19,961 boe/d.

• Discovery, Inc. delivered a disappointing set of results as the company could not meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The company generated almost $1.7 billion in free cash flow this quarter, and the team anticipates around the same in Q3.
• Their global direct-to-consumer business was mildly EBITDA positive for the first half of this year and nearly breakeven in the second quarter.

• Universal Display Corporation managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The company announced $147 million in revenue, $59 million in operating profit, and $50 million in net income, or $1.04 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2023.
• Universal Display’s revenue guidance range for the year has been reduced from $560 million to $600 million.

• During the recent quarter, McCormick showcased mediocre performance with below-par revenues and on-par earnings.
• In terms of highlights, the company reported constant currency sales growth and noted an improvement in volume performance, excluding China, throughout the year.
• In the Flavor Solutions segment, McCormick continued its exceptional growth momentum, with the third quarter marking its tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit constant currency sales growth.

• Qualys, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
• The channel’s share of revenue stayed at 43% from the previous quarter.
• By geo, their overseas business rose 12%, outpacing the 16% rise in the U.S.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) announced the temporary suspension of all operating activities at its La Colorada mine in Mexico due to security concerns at the mine site following the concentrate robbery. The company has not yet provided any indication of the potential restart of mining activities. We currently maintain our estimates and valuation, awaiting more clarity on the timing of the restart.

• SunPower Corporation’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• This led to a revision of the 2023 guidance, reflecting market conditions, lower operating expenses, reduced platform investment, and a delay in certain projects.
• Adjusted revenue grew by 9%, partly offsetting higher product costs with price increases.

• Wayfair Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
• With net revenue down 3% year-over-year in Q2 compared to a category that continues to be down 10% to 20% for widely-tracked estimates like credit card and email receipt data, Wayfair significantly outperformed the competition.
• Total adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $128 million due to the revenue strength and significant expense reductions they have made across their entire P&L.

• Teladoc managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings with a robust result, characterized by a 10% YoY growth in consolidated revenue and consolidated adjusted EBITDA exceeding expectations at $72 million.
• Notably, the Integrated Care and BetterHelp segments both performed exceptionally well, with the former seeing 5% YoY revenue growth driven by higher enrollment in the chronic care program.
• BetterHelp, the leading player in mental health services, reported an 18% YoY revenue growth in the second quarter, in line with expectations, emphasizing the sustained demand for mental health services.

• Viavi Solutions Inc. managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• Although NSE revenue decreased sequentially but increased year over year, it was primarily driven by the company’s NE business sector.
• Nevertheless, a stronger demand for anti-counterfeiting products helped the fourth quarter’s revenue increase somewhat than anticipated.

• Factory shutdowns for “updates” doesn’t explain Tesla’s huge Q3 miss on deliveries.
• Why? Because bloated excess inventory was enough to cover the 20k “miss” some 3-5x. 
• A better explanation: Tesla’s accelerating demand erosion, which I have been tracking since last year in every major market.

• Higher for longer rate regime makes it difficult for NextEra Energy Partners to raise debt to fund high growth forcing a reduction in growth forecasts.
• Markets have reacted sharply to slashed forecasts with shares of NEP (-52%) & NEE (-22%). Growth is expected to remain lower in the future.
• NEE has performed markedly better than NEP. This is reflected by analyst price targets. However, NEE’s long-term growth story has stumbled raising investor concerns.

• ATEN continues to experience challenges with order timing from some of its largest customers. ATEN lowered Q3 revenue forecast after North American service providers delayed their purchases in the quarter
• ATEN has spent the entire year trying to add more enterprise customers to offset this volatility and, while successful, it was not enough in the third quarter.
• ATEN is projecting third quarter revenue between $56.5 million and $58.5 million compared to our estimate of $75.3 million.

• ADEA revised its full year outlook after electing to sue long-time customer Shaw Communications for breach of contract
• Shaw was acquired by Rogers Communications (RCI). ADEA claims Shaw is no longer paying ADEA even though the two companies had signed a license renewal in 2019
• We are reducing our 2023 revenue forecast to approximately $387.7 million with operating income of $250.8 million

• Soybeans are crushed into soy oil and soymeal. The crush represents the Gross Processing Margin of Soybean.
• The crush has been increasingly affected by the price of soy oil compared to soymeal. Ample meal supply suppresses its prices.
• Meanwhile, soy oil prices are buoyed by supply concerns in the US as it is increasingly used to produce biodiesel.

• Despite beating guidance, Micron’s latest earnings report confirms a still-toxic memory market environment
• ASPs for both DRAM and NAND have now declined sequentially for the past eight quarters
• Their HBM3E solution is an unfortunate case of too much, too late. 

• DocuSign, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, continuing to build momentum in its business by progressing on key projects and enhancing its product offering.
• With a non-GAAP operating margin of 25%, Q2 total sales of $688 million was up 11% from the same quarter last year.
• DocuSign shipped and announced several new, highly developed features for its Web Forms offering during the quarter.

• AutoZone delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
• The company achieved a total sales growth of 7.4% for the fiscal year, accompanied by a 12.9% increase in earnings per share.
• Additionally, the company has introduced new reporting metrics to provide enhanced visibility, including same-store sales results for domestic, international, and total company operations.

• EPAM Systems, Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings, with revenue of $1.17 billion, a 2.1% year-over-year decline on a reported basis and a 2.4% year-over-year decline in constant currency terms.
• Travel and consumer fell on a year-over-year basis, principally because of decreases in retail, which were only slightly offset by strong growth in travel and hospitality.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• Guidewire Software delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
• The management closed 17 cloud deals in the quarter, bringing the total for the year to 37.
• In terms of adoption, Guidewire achieved 13 go-lives on the Guidewire Cloud Platform during the quarter, reinforcing its positive trajectory.

• Ralph Lauren managed an all-around beat in the last quarter delivering a strong performance that highlights the resilience of its strategy and the adaptability of its teams in a dynamic global environment.
• The quarter witnessed positive revenue growth that surpassed guidance, marking a return to gross margin expansion while effectively managing peak raw material costs.
• The company’s commitment to cost discipline enabled a 100 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin, reaching 13.7%, resulting in a 9% increase in operating profit.

• Smartsheet Inc. managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• Revenue for the quarter was more than expected and increased by 26% year over year to $235.6 million, while billings increased by 18% year over year to $243.1 million.
• At the end of the quarter, they had more than 13.4 million active Smartsheet users and an annual recurring revenue of $933 million.

• Ambarella, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
• Ambarella’s blended ASP was over $12 and is on track to increase by nearly 20% from the previous quarter.
• Ambarella started porting META’s LLaMA 2 to the CV3-AD-High in the most recent quarter, and their team anticipates making chatbot demos accessible later this year.

• As discussed in last week’s Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
• Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
• We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
• HPE produced significant free cash flow while increasing its revenue, gross margin, as well as earnings per share year over year.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• Micron has Outperperformed Nanya Tech & Hynix since our pre-earnings trade. Micron’s valuation has reverted vs. Nanya’s.
• Nanya Tech has recently reported a 15% YoY drop in its latest monthly revenue. Micron just had a US$1.3bn subsidy approved by the Japanese government.
• We are now agnostic on the upcoming relative performance between the three Memory names Micron, Nanya Tech, and SK Hynix. Nanya will report its results on October 11th.

• Despite a challenging market environment, HP increased net revenue, non-GAAP EPS, non-GAAP operating profit, and free cash flow quarter over quarter.
• With $13.2 billion in net revenue, the company’s annualized revenue was down 10% or 7% in constant currency.
• Despite not being immune to the end market concerns, these businesses combined produced strong sequential growth in the quarter.

• Costco delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
• The company reported net income for the 17-week fourth quarter came in at $2.16 billion or $4.86 per diluted share compared to $1.868 billion or $4.20 per diluted share in the 16-week fourth quarter last year.
• In terms of sales, net sales for the 17-week fourth quarter were $77.43 billion, an increase of 9.4% from $70.76 billion in the 16-week fourth quarter last year.

• FuelCell Energy, Inc. delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
• The company reported total revenues of $25.5 million for the quarter.
• The two latest module exchanges at the plant owned by Korea Southern Power Company and the module exchange at the plant at Trinity College were the main factors behind the increase in service agreement revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023.

• IAC/InterActiveCorp delivered a disappointing set of results as it could not meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The company experienced 1% growth in the digital space in June, driven largely by effective performance marketing, and it maintained sessions and traffic across the board for the entire month.
• IAC is pleased with the location of such assets in the migration and growth plans.

• This is a special one-time report on Cue Health, a company once lauded for its promise in the diagnostics sector.
• Amidst diminishing fortunes, the company is under the scrutiny of significant shareholder, Tarsadia Investments.
• This report aims to dissect the various valuation scenarios underpinning Cue Health, providing a lucid understanding of its investment potential amidst the unfolding drama.

• Hologic, Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
• Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.93 and the total revenue was $984 million.
• In Mammography, Hologic delivered more gantries in Q3 than in Q1 and significantly fewer than in Q2.

• Regeneron delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, demonstrating progress toward their long-term objective of business growth and revenue diversification.
• Total revenues saw an 11% increase compared to the previous year’s quarter, primarily driven by collaboration revenues with Sanofi and net product sales of Libtayo, which exhibited impressive growth of 39% and 49%, respectively.
• Notably, non-EYLEA revenue contributions accounted for 41% of total revenues, marking a significant proportion, the highest in the last decade, excluding contributions from COVID-19 antibodies.

• The Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) Board succumbs to shareholder pressure by announcing the formation of a special committee to conduct a formal sale process.
• Hollysys has received non-binding proposals from six parties since December 2020. The most recent is a non-binding proposal from the Recco consortium at US$25.00 per share.
• The Board’s change of heart should encourage previous bidders to re-engage. Recco’s offer, while attractive, is not a knockout bid, suggesting a possible bidding war. 

• This week, Rajesh Vashist of SiTime came to talk about SiTime’s new product launch, Epoch. 
• SiTime is still the least understood story in semiconductors because timing is one of the least understood products or applications in semiconductors.
• Timing chips. They are the heartbeat of any system in any communications, processing, computing, or all of the above.

• This is a special, one-time report on CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc., a noteworthy provider specializing in car-insurance software, that has garnered substantial attention as it finds itself potentially at the cusp of a pivotal acquisition deal.
• The current ownership landscape of CCC is dominated by Advent International, holding a commanding 56% stake, and it has reportedly been exploring sale options following a Reuters report.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is a special one-time report on DLocal, a company that has been a subject of intense scrutiny and intrigue, especially after reports by Bloomberg News about the company considering various future paths, including a potential sale.
• The speculation of its sale has set the financial markets abuzz, leading to a noticeable uptick in the company’s shares.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• Market consensus estimates for Q3 deliveries have been falling so hard and fast they now approach my formerly well below market estimate. 
• Sentiment, however, remains largely optimistic as analysts attribute the weakness to factory shutdowns for “updates”. We’ll see.
• Tesla is expected to report results before the market opens on Monday.

• The S&P 500 INDEX is OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. There will be a LONG reversal soon, and it should be a MONTHLY reversal (at least 1 month uptrending).
• The WEEKLY model is telling us the market is oversold, but there is a possibility of having 1-2 more weeks down, that should be the end of the correction.
• Go LONG Global Equities and pay attention to the MONTHLY (4203) and WEEKLY (4077) supports: if the index reaches these supports it will be very oversold.

• Ford Motor Co. said Monday it was suspending construction of its $3.5 billion electric-vehicle (EV) battery plant in the U.S. midwestern state of Michigan, where it had planned to manufacture batteries using technology licensed from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) (300750.SZ -0.31%).

• “We’re pausing work and limiting spending on construction on the Marshall project until we’re confident about our ability to competitively operate the plant,” Ford spokesperson T.R. Reid said in a statement emailed to Caixin.

• “There are a number of considerations. We haven’t been specific about what they are, nor made any final decision about the planned investment there,” Reid said.

• Taiwan’s AI supply chain names have fallen over the last month, yet many have still outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin over the last six months.
• We don’t want to sell our Nvidia despite market risks — We believe a basket of Taiwan AI stocks can act as a Short to hedge a Long Nvidia position.
• Shorting a basket of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital Components can act as a hedge vs. a Long Nvidia position. Below we explain why.

• VF Corporation delivered a mixed result in the past quarter, with revenues above anticipations, but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
• While their on-time performance and in-stock percentages were both back in line with their expectations, lead times concluded the quarter at typical levels.
• Vans experienced a 22% decline in the quarter and was significantly impacted by the brand’s expected 40% decline in wholesale sales in the Americas.

• This is a special one-time report on Emerald Holding that is creating ripples in the news circuit, courtesy of the exploration endeavors by its predominant shareholder, Onex.
• Emerald Holding, though operating with a low profile, has been wielding a silent yet significant influence over the events sphere.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• HEICO Corporation managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• These results primarily represent a 12% quarterly consolidated organic net sales growth and the impact of acquisitions.
• In the quarter, The Flight Support Group’s net sales grew 23% to $405 million, up from $330.3 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2022.

• This is a special one-time report on PROS Holdings which has garnered attention due to speculation around a potential sale, as noted in a Reuters report.
• Despite its significant role and contributions to various industries, including airlines, PROS has encountered notable challenges, struggling to achieve profitability.
• Thus, the pertinent questions that arise are related to the feasibility of an acquisition of PROS Holdings and the potential premium that early investors might garner from such a transaction.

• This is a special one-time research report on United States Cellular Corporation (UScellular).
• In light of recent announcements, the company emerges as a subject of intricate valuation and examination for potential investors and acquisition entities.
• With the strategic review underway without a definitive completion timetable, it’s crucial for investors to understand the merits and demerits of UScellular as an acquisition target.

• Best Buy delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
• While absorbing more significant incentive compensation costs than Best Buy saw last year, the company managed to maintain level SG&A costs.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.