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Daily Brief United States: Hollysys Automation Technologies, iShares Russell 2000 ETF, Cambium Networks and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Capital Joins the Fray
  • Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports
  • Cambium Networks Corporation – New CEO Working to Streamline the Company


Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Capital Joins the Fray

By Arun George

  • Ascendent Capital has made a non-binding proposal for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) at US$26.00 per share, a 4.0% premium to the MBO and Recco proposal of US$25.00 per share. 
  • Ascendent has also become the largest shareholder by securing 13.69% of outstanding shares at an average price of A$20.84 per share. Ascendant is supportive of the special meeting request.
  • The Board has tried several delaying tactics, but the emergence of Ascendant ramps up the pressure on the Board to conduct a transparent sale process and address shareholder concerns. 

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

By Joe Jasper

  • We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point
  • Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that’s what happened
  • Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.

Cambium Networks Corporation – New CEO Working to Streamline the Company

By Water Tower Research

  • Cambium Networks (CMBM) is a leading mid-market wireless solutions provider.
  • Growth is being driven by 5G and new 6 GHz products. The company believes its strengths are its RF algorithms and software.
  • The cnMaestro X network management solution makes significant use of AI and lies at the center of the company’s product suite.

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Daily Brief United States: Ecovyst, ACCO Brands, HNI Corp, Rayonier Advanced Materials, Ubiquiti Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • ECVT: Investing for 2024
  • ACCO: Sales Retraction Creates Headwinds
  • HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report – Correction
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. – Investor Day Highlights “Specialty” In Specialty Cellulose
  • UI: Surprise Revenue Miss, PT to $160


ECVT: Investing for 2024

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ECVT has navigated a challenging 2023, marked by unforeseen external factors that have made accurate quarterly forecasting a formidable task
  • As the year comes to a close, ECVT is seizing an opportunity during the seasonal refinery downtime to expedite its capital expenditure plans from 2024.
  • ECVT reported third quarter sales of $173.3 million compared to our estimate of $171.3 million. The miss was the result of greater than expected slowdown in ecoservices segment

ACCO: Sales Retraction Creates Headwinds

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ACCO reported third quarter results without the expected back to school benefit. Instead, ACCO focused on profitable sales helping to lift gross margin and report higher earnings results
  • Retailers continue to tightly manage their inventory levels and the trend is expected to remain in the fourth quarter. 
  • ACCO remains a free cash flow investment story. We are not expecting growth in 2024 putting greater pressure on how much free cash flow ACCO can generate 

HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report – Correction

By Water Tower Research

  • This note corrects the version that was published on November 2. Due to errors in our model, the full-year estimate for 2024 was not calculated properly.
  • The correct full-year 2024 EPS estimate is $2.65.
  • We are raising our non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS estimates for 4Q23 and 2024 following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report on Tuesday, October 31, 2023.

Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. – Investor Day Highlights “Specialty” In Specialty Cellulose

By Water Tower Research

  • Portfolio strength and market weakness. At a recently held Investor Day, RYAM management highlighted its cellulose product portfolio, the company’s biomaterials initiative, and the current state of the industry in the wake of the G-P closure announcement.
  • RYAM also provided an update on 2023 guidance and a look at 2024 and 2027 EBITDA bridges.
  • Asset evaluation proceeding to the next round. Following the Investor Day, RYAM announced that it engaged Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor to explore the potential sale of its paperboard and high-yield pulp (HYP) assets located at its Temiscaming site, as it advances its initiative to expand into higher-growth, higher-margin specialty businesses and reduce its exposure to commodity cellulose markets.

UI: Surprise Revenue Miss, PT to $160

By Hamed Khorsand

  • UI fiscal first-quarter results (September) fell short of consensus estimates, primarily due to underperforming sales in the enterprise segment.
  • Our initial expectations included the anticipation of soft demand for Ubiquiti, which was compounded by our belief in the enterprise spending momentum continuing
  • Ubiquiti’s fiscal first-quarter revenue came in at $463.1 million, falling short of our estimate of $547.9 million. Historically, the quarter has been a strong period, making this deviation particularly noteworthy

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Daily Brief United States: Texas Pacific Land , Assertio Holdings, Hawkins Inc, NFT and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • TPL: Collecting Cash Looking to 2024
  • ASRT: Minimizing Indocin, PT $4
  • HWKN: Water and Margin Growth, PT to $74
  • Brands & NFTs — Why Web3 Is A Game Changer for Brand Growth


TPL: Collecting Cash Looking to 2024

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TPL Summary Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reported third quarter results where a decline in daily production led to lower than expected oil and gas royalties.
  • The rate of production has always been the variable part of TPL’s results. In Q3 production levels were impacted by the summer heat in Texas causing abnormal electricity levels
  • TPL reported third quarter revenue of $158.0 million compared to our estimate of $178.7 million

ASRT: Minimizing Indocin, PT $4

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ASRT has not had any news to rekindle investor interest since reporting second quarter results. ASRT is scheduled to report third quarter results on November 8, 2023
  • Ahead of the news, we are readjusting our expectations for Indocin. We are minimizing the revenue potential from Indocin in our earnings model.
  • Going forward, Rolvedon becomes the primary revenue generator. ASRT should generate positive net income with Rolvedon sales ramping

HWKN: Water and Margin Growth, PT to $74

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HWKN reported fiscal second quarter (September) results with improved gross margin and continued reversal of last in first out (“LIFO”) reversals
  • HWKN converted inventory to cash that was then used to reduce the debt balance allowing HWKN to acquire two more water treatment businesses
  • The quarter included a sharper decline in industrial sales than expected. However, the higher gross margin in water treatment and health and nutrition segments were able to offset the impact

Brands & NFTs — Why Web3 Is A Game Changer for Brand Growth

By Delphi Digital

  • Web3 and NFTs is a green field opportunity for forward-thinking brands. It can create win-win opportunities for brands and consumers. Adidas, Nike, TIME, and Gucci capitalized early.
  • The next generation of brands embracing NFTs can draw valuable insights from previous brand experiments, learning from their successes while avoiding their mistakes.
  • We pinpoint four fundamental pillars that can propel brand engagement in the real world. And how NFTs are powerful tools that can enrich each pillar

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Daily Brief United States: Tesla Motors, Aehr Test Systems, Duolingo, HNI Corp, Odyssey Marine Exploration and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead
  • SiC as a Dog (Part 2)
  • Duolingo Valuation Update: Year-End Profit Taking Is Likely As ARR Growth Is Slowing Down
  • HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report
  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Exploring and Developing Seabed Resources Responsibly


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

By Andrew Lu

  • Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y.
  • Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR?
  • Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.

SiC as a Dog (Part 2)

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • The sickness in Silicon Carbide started at On semi.
  • Let’s look through the results and see the drivers, the big deal, and what we should do about it.
  • The market freaked out about Silicon Carbide, specifically On semiconductor, saying that automotive demand for the year will be weaker.

Duolingo Valuation Update: Year-End Profit Taking Is Likely As ARR Growth Is Slowing Down

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Duolingo shares have outperformed in 2023, with shares up ~115% over the year versus ~26% gain on the Nasdaq. The company priced its IPO at $102 a share in 2021.
  • EdTech unicorn achieved the highest-ever MAUs and DAUs in 2QFY23, while paid subscribers reached 5.2M, ~7% of MAUs. Management raised top-line and profitability guidance for FY23. 
  • With a market cap of ~$7.4B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~13x and ~10x EV/Rev on my FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.

HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report

By Water Tower Research

  • We are raising our non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS estimates for 4Q23 and 2024 following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report on Tuesday, October 31, 2023.
  • Our sales estimates have moderated. Following the 3Q23 report, margins should be sustainably stronger.
  • HNI reported 3Q23 adjusted EPS of $0.93, $0.30 better than consensus. Sales were roughly in line. 

Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Exploring and Developing Seabed Resources Responsibly

By Water Tower Research

  • We hosted a fireside chat with Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Directors Mark D. Gordon.
  • This report contains a transcript of the fireside chat from October 12, 2023, which can be accessed on demand.
  • Deep roots and unique capabilities. Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. is a company with nearly 30 years of experience exploring and recovering deep-sea sites, amassing more than 24,000 hours of deep-sea experience, and exploring more than 74,000 square kilometers of the seafloor in the process.

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Daily Brief United States: Advanced Micro Devices, USD, Paccar Inc, Waste Management, General Electric , Illinois Tool Works, 3M Co, Marsh & Mclennan, Sherwin Williams Co, Southern Copper and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • AMD Q323. MI300 >$2 Billion in 2024
  • Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?
  • PACCAR Inc: Does The Battery Revolution Imply A Possible Investment Opportunity? – Major Drivers
  • Waste Management: Recycling Tech Transforms Business! Inside their Next-Gen Sustainability Approach! – Major Drivers
  • General Electric Company: A Lucrative Strategy Of Future-Proof Investments Revealed! – Major Drivers
  • Illinois Tool Works Inc.: Surge in China’s Automotive Segment – Unveiling Recent Big Winners! – Major Drivers
  • 3M Company: How They’re Dominating the Market! – Major Drivers
  • Marsh & McLennan Companies: String Of Recent Acquisitions Driving Growth? – Major Drivers
  • The Sherwin-Williams Company: Acquisition Game-Changer! How Oskar Nolte & Klumpp Coatings Set the Stage for Future Wins! – Major Drivers
  • Southern Copper Corporation: Can It Defy The Odds? – Major Drivers


AMD Q323. MI300 >$2 Billion in 2024

By William Keating

  • Q323 revenues of $5.8 billion, $100 million above midpoint, up 7.5% QoQ and up 4% YoY. Net income of $299 million, significantly up from $27 million in the second quarter.
  • Forecasted Q423 revenues of $6.1 billion at the midpoint, up ~5% QoQ
  • MI300 forecasted to hit > $2 billion in 2024 making it the fastest product ramp to $1 billion in the company’s history

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.
  • No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.
  • We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

PACCAR Inc: Does The Battery Revolution Imply A Possible Investment Opportunity? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PACCAR managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, with net income surging by 60% year-over-year to a historic $1.23 billion, accompanied by a 23% increase in revenues.
  • PACCAR Parts also played a pivotal role in the company’s success, with third-quarter revenues reaching $1.58 billion and Parts pretax profits increasing by 10% to $412 million.
  • PACCAR Financial achieved an impressive pretax income of $134 million in the financial sector in the third quarter.

Waste Management: Recycling Tech Transforms Business! Inside their Next-Gen Sustainability Approach! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Waste Management delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations but surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The solid waste business was the driving force behind this achievement, with organic revenue growth in collection and disposal aligning well with expectations.
  • The resilience of solid waste volumes, with positive trends in commercial volumes and special waste growth, stood out.

General Electric Company: A Lucrative Strategy Of Future-Proof Investments Revealed! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Electric Company delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • Orders increased by double digits, with services up by 15% and equipment up by 22%, driven primarily by the commercial aerospace sector.
  • The aerospace segment, in particular, experienced substantial growth, with commercial engines and services leading the way.

Illinois Tool Works Inc.: Surge in China’s Automotive Segment – Unveiling Recent Big Winners! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Illinois Tool Works delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • The company had relatively stable organic growth in the quarter, with a 2% increase on an equal-day basis.
  • Operating margin for the third quarter reached 26.5%, marking a 200-basis point increase compared to the previous year.

3M Company: How They’re Dominating the Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • 3M Company delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • This success has positioned the company for a promising conclusion to the year 2023.
  • The company also addresses potential risk and uncertainty by resolving significant litigation matters, such as Combat Arms and PFAS litigation.

Marsh & McLennan Companies: String Of Recent Acquisitions Driving Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company achieved an unprecedented quarterly underlying revenue growth over two decades and reported substantial growth in adjusted EPS.
  • Marsh McLennan Agency acquired Graham Company, a top-100 US insurance and benefits broker and risk management consultancy, bolstering the company’s Mid-Atlantic presence.

The Sherwin-Williams Company: Acquisition Game-Changer! How Oskar Nolte & Klumpp Coatings Set the Stage for Future Wins! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Sherwin-Williams Company delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • In the third quarter, Sherwin-Williams’ Paint Stores Group exhibited commendable resilience, with a 3.6% increase in sales, despite a demanding 21.5% comparison.
  • Within the Paint Stores Group, the Protective & Marine sector emerged as the fastest-growing, achieving double-digit percentage sales growth against a mid-teens comparison.

Southern Copper Corporation: Can It Defy The Odds? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Southern Copper Corporation delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, demonstrating resilience and adaptability.
  • Copper, constituting a significant 75% of their sales, faced a marginal 9% decline in production, primarily due to diminished ore grades in the Cuajone mine.
  • Amidst these challenges, Southern Copper remained proactive, predicting a 6% increase in copper production for the year 2023, aiming for 917,000 tons.

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Daily Brief United States: Russell 2000 Index, Alphabet , Cheniere Energy, At&T Inc, Avantor , Baker Hughes, American Express Co, Coca Cola Co, Copart Inc, Align Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs
  • Alphabet Inc: Cloud Innovations – A Glimpse into the Future of Tech! – Major Drivers
  • Cheniere Energy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • AT&T Inc: The Convergence Of 5G & Fiber Is The Future! – Major Drivers
  • Avantor Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Baker Hughes Co: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • American Express Company: Launch Of American Express Business Blueprint & Other Developments
  • The Coca-Cola Company: From North America to Asia – Dominating Every Sip! – Major Drivers
  • Copart Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Align Technology Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy


Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No “decisive” breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers
  • Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.

Alphabet Inc: Cloud Innovations – A Glimpse into the Future of Tech! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alphabet Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the quarter, with significant growth in its Search and YouTube segments, as well as momentum in Cloud services.
  • The goal is to provide more diverse information and multiple perspectives in search results while incorporating ads.
  • The company enables developers and organizations to build transformative products and services, mainly through Google Cloud, which witnessed continued growth, showcasing innovations in infrastructure, data, AI, workspace collaboration, and cybersecurity solutions.

Cheniere Energy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on energy infrastructure major, Cheniere Energy Inc.
  • The company performed decently in the previous quarter as global inventory levels reached historic highs.
  • The U.S.’s mild climate and increased production kept Henry Hub prices below $3 during the quarter, encouraging coal-to-gas switching and boosting power sector demand.

AT&T Inc: The Convergence Of 5G & Fiber Is The Future! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AT&T Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, prioritizing investments in 5G and fiber technologies to expand their customer base while ensuring profitability.
  • In the wireless sector, its consistent go-to-market strategy continues to attract high-value subscribers, exemplifying the resonance of its customer-centric approach.
  • Besides these positive results, the company launched AT&T Internet Air to deliver uninterrupted and dependable internet connectivity to small company proprietors.

Avantor Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Avantor, Inc, a well-known provider of mission-critical products to the healthcare industry as well as other domains.
  • The company delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Market trends weakened sequentially, particularly in biopharma, where larger pharmaceutical customers moderated their spending, and small biotech companies faced ongoing funding constraints.

Baker Hughes Co: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on energy equipments and services provider, Baker Hughes.
  • Despite global economic uncertainty and fluctuating commodity prices, Baker Hughes remains optimistic about the outlook for the year, emphasizing a durable upstream spending cycle driven by international and offshore markets.
  • Baker Hughes continues to optimize its corporate structure with a cost-reduction strategy and a focus on achieving higher margins and returns.

American Express Company: Launch Of American Express Business Blueprint & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • American Express Company delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, continuing the impressive trajectory of its financial performance.
  • The company reported its 7th consecutive quarter of tangible results, with significant revenues reaching $15.4 billion, showcasing a 13% year-over-year increase.
  • The company further introduced product improvements and analytics advancements to its digital cash flow management hub, American Express Business Blueprint.

The Coca-Cola Company: From North America to Asia – Dominating Every Sip! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Coca-Cola Company managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company had strong organic revenue growth, improved operating margins, and earnings per share growth.
  • With 11% organic revenue growth driven by higher volume, pricing actions, and carryover pricing, Coca-Cola maintained its industry’s vibrancy.

Copart Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Copart Inc, a well-known online auctions and vehicle remarketing services provider.
  • With global revenue increasing by nearly 13%, including a favorable currency impact, the company demonstrated its ability to drive solid financial results.
  • With solid profits and cost efficiency, Copart is set to weather market changes and maintain global service excellence.

Align Technology Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on health-tech player, Align Technology Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • Notably, 195,000 teens and kids commenced Invisalign clear aligner treatment in Q2, marking a 7% sequential increase and a significant 10% year-over-year growth.
  • Total Clear Aligner revenues for Q2 amounted to $832.7 million, reflecting a 5.4% sequential and 4.3% year-over-year increase.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, NVIDIA Corp, Impinj Inc, ATN International, Trimas Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years
  • BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates
  • PI: Headwinds Persist
  • ATNI: Turning Away from Debt
  • TRS: Scaled for Free Cash Flow


PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Intel’s results last week beat expectations by a wide margin, with margins recovering better than expected by the Street and guided to keep improving through 4Q23E.
  • New Meteor Lake chips for PCs, branded as ‘Intel Core Ultra’ will officially launch December 14th and are expected to drive demand for new AI-optimized PCs in 2024E.
  • Intel said that the PC industry completed its inventory digestion in 1H23, drove sequential demand growth in 3Q23, and this is expected to continue into 4Q23E.

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

By Andrew Lu

  • TSMC’s manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
  • ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
  • Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.

PI: Headwinds Persist

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Impinj reported third quarter results affirming the slowdown in sales volume for endpoint ICs with hopes the current softness comes to an end by the first quarter of 2024
  • Concurrent with the decline in demand is the increase in endpoint IC availability from competitors
  • We continue to believe the near-term fundamentals are not as strong as the stock depicts and the business is vulnerable to further headwinds, especially related to endpoint IC pricing.

ATNI: Turning Away from Debt

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATNI is benefiting from its capital expenditure investments through an increase in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, but it has come with the price of higher interest expense
  • ATNI reported third quarter results showing subscriber growth in each of its markets, but that was not enough to mend the cost of capital that has increased this year
  • ATNI is now projecting 2024 capital expenditures to decline materially in what could result in improving ATNI’s debt balance over the next four quarters

TRS: Scaled for Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TRS reported third quarter results where the packaging business continues to stabilize from inventory destocking while the aerospace segment continues to grow as fast as possible
  • The packaging business has gone through restructuring that should lead to higher profit margin as customers begin to increase their order activity
  • Improved supply chains are aiding the sales growth in aerospace. The growth in aerospace should help push cash flow higher and offset the softness in packaging

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Daily Brief United States: KLA-Tencor Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • KLAC. Bouncing Along The Bottom


KLAC. Bouncing Along The Bottom

By William Keating

  • Q323 revenues of $2.40 billion, at the upper end of the guidance range, up 2% QoQ but down 12.5% YoY
  • Current quarter revenue forecast of $2.45 billion, essentially flat sequentially
  • Services revenue on track for ~8% YoY growth despite overall revenues tracking to an 8.6% YoY decline..

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Daily Brief United States: Zions Bancorporation, Cargo Therapeutics, Intel Corp, XRP and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • US Banks – Office Exposures, Interest Spread Trends to 3Q23
  • CARGO Therapeutics IPO Preview: A Promising Pipeline of Next-Gen CAR T-Cell Therapies
  • Intel. Beat & Raise Sends Shares Soaring After Hours
  • More Than Just Governance: Unpacking Value Accrual Mechanisms in Crypto


US Banks – Office Exposures, Interest Spread Trends to 3Q23

By Victor Galliano

  • US Banks’ office credit exposures represent a big part of the sector’s credit quality concerns, given the decline in office space occupancy and rising interest rates
  • Industry data shows that bank funding costs are rising fast, and 3Q23 bank spread trends are mixed; banks with greater mortgage exposure are potentially at greater risk of narrowing spreads
  • We stick with Capital One for its high lending spreads, negligible mortgage exposure and limited office credit exposure with high coverage; Capital One also has healthy overall NPL coverage

CARGO Therapeutics IPO Preview: A Promising Pipeline of Next-Gen CAR T-Cell Therapies

By Andrei Zakharov

  • CARGO Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech company developing treatments for various lymphomas, filed for an IPO to fund its Phase 2 clinical trials of CRG-022, a lead program in the pipeline. 
  • The biotech firm was backed by founding investor Samsara BioCapital and top-tier healthcare VC firms, including Third Rock Ventures, Perceptive Advisors, and Nextech Invest.
  • The company’s lead program, CRG-022, is focused on patients with large B-cell lymphoma whose disease relapsed and targets CD-22 that has been expressed in 81% to 100% of DLBCL patients. 

Intel. Beat & Raise Sends Shares Soaring After Hours

By William Keating

  • Q323 revenues of $14.2 billion, some $800 million above the guided midpoint, down 8% YoY but up 10% sequentially.
  • Current quarter revenue guided up QoQ to $15.1 billion at the midpoint, shares up 10% 
  • Intel is betting big on a return to a 300 million unit PC TAM. Is this realistic?

More Than Just Governance: Unpacking Value Accrual Mechanisms in Crypto

By Delphi Digital

  • Traditional equities confer specific rights to their holders, such as voting power and dividends. Tokens offer distinct advantages, including implementation versatility, composability—especially within DeFi—and other functionalities unattainable with securities.
  • The innovative designs of tokens play a pivotal role; they not only channel value back to the token holders but also exert a direct impact on the token’s market value.
  • In this report, we explore four value accrual mechanisms implemented by tokens. These include: (i) Buyback and Burn; (ii) Real Yield; (iii) Tax-Tokens; and (iv) Book Value Tokens

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Daily Brief United States: Newmont Mining, Hollysys Automation Technologies, Ocean Power Technologies, Shenandoah Telecommunications Company, Netgear Inc, HNI Corp, Aspira Women’s Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
  • What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer
  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement
  • SHEN: On the Horizon
  • NTGR: Recovery with Cash Flow
  • HNI Corporation – 3Q Preview: Looking for Steady Demand in WF Segment
  • Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Two Important Announcements from Aspira Women’s Health


Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

By Travis Lundy

  • Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
  • That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
  • Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hollysys (HOLI US), a leading automation control system solutions provider in China, has been subject to at least six indicative Offers since December 2020, ranging from US$15.47/share to $US$25/share. 
  • Yue Xu and Lei Fang, the co-chief operating officers of Hollysys, who previously tabled a NBIO of US$23.00/share in August 2021, have now pitched a US$25/share proposal.
  • What is different this time? >32% of the share registry has banded together to demand changes. That’s dramatically different vs previous Offers.

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies entered a contract with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement to provide a WAM-V 16 Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) equipped with an integrated quadcopter aerial drone that should help in protecting vital marine species and combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities in critical habitats.
  • OPT and WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement are teaming up to use unmanned surface and aerial vehicles to identify, track, and gather information on people who are harming marine life and ecosystems through illegal activities
  • Additionally, the company also received an additional volume order from Sulmara worth $1.6 million, a prominent player in offshore services, of WAMV 16 uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs), making this the largest single order of WAM-Vs to date.

SHEN: On the Horizon

By Hamed Khorsand

  • SHEN is expanding its network footprint with the acquisition of Horizon Telecom for $385 million in cash and stock.
  • SHEN is purchasing Horizon for the network footprint and the sales ability to capture commercial customers compared to the majority of SHEN’s customers being residential
  • The valuation becomes financially reasonable to understand when considering SHEN is paying approximately $51 thousand per fiber miles

NTGR: Recovery with Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • NTGR benefited from an increase in demand for premium wireless mesh systems and routers in the third quarter resulting in a non-GAAP profit
  • The return of normalcy should allow NTGR to convert its on hand inventory to cash over the next two quarters. NTGR’s cash balance should continue to rise
  • A softer environment for SMB products forces us to reassess our model with NTGR guiding gross margin down

HNI Corporation – 3Q Preview: Looking for Steady Demand in WF Segment

By Water Tower Research

  • HNI reports 3Q23 on Tuesday, October 31 before the market opens, with its earnings conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET. 
  • We expect 3Q23 non-GAAP EPS of $0.64 on consolidated sales of $713 million. Consensus is $0.63 EPS on consolidated sales of $713 million.
  • In 3Q22, HNI delivered $0.71 in non-GAAP EPS on consolidated sales of $598.8 million.

Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Two Important Announcements from Aspira Women’s Health

By Water Tower Research

  • On October 25, Aspira Women’s Health announced that a poster on its in-development miRNA-based ovarian cancer test was presented at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Special Conference in Cancer Research: Ovarian Cancer.
  • The poster, titled, “Improving the diagnostic accuracy of an ovarian cancer triage test using a joint miRNA-protein model,” highlighted data showing miRNA’s potential to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive diagnostic tests.
  • The study showed that the addition of miRNA improved the detection of early-stage ovarian cancers and that diagnostic performance improved even further when using a combination of approaches, including miRNA, proteins, and metadata. 

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