United States

• Cisco Systems, Inc. recently reported its first quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing numerous strengths as well as areas to watch closely.
• The company’s revenue for the quarter reached $13.8 billion, sitting at the high end of their guidance range, though it marked a 6% decline year-over-year due to the previous year’s elevated backlog shipments.
• The strength across Cisco’s lines of business was evident in their recurring revenue streams, which now account for 57% of total revenue.

• Applied Materials, Inc. recently reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 results, revealing several facets that contribute to its investment thesis.
• The company recorded record revenue and earnings, marking five consecutive years of growth.
• This performance underscores the competency of its strategy and execution, driven by the global team’s hard work.

• Kulicke and Soffa Industries reported its fiscal fourth quarter 2024 results, highlighting several key developments and challenges.
• The company’s revenue for the quarter was $181.3 million with a reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.34.
• The results were influenced by improvements in some end markets but were hindered by continued softness in others, particularly the LED segment.

• Jacobs Solutions recently concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 with a focus on a strategic shift towards a more streamlined operation centered on higher value and higher-margin portfolios.
• The company completed the separation transaction of its Critical Mission Solutions (CMS) and Cyber & Intelligence businesses.
• This resulted in a cash inflow of $911 million, which was used to repay existing debt, alongside acquiring a 7.5% equity stake in Amentum, which could increase to 8%.

• We introduce a new section this month showing implied vol vs average absolute December price movement. A good way to screen for straddle candidates for the month ahead.
• Implied vols came in hard in November with the US election and the FOMC in the rear-view mirror.
• Price performance across markets especially strong in the final week of the month with SP500, Nifty and SPASX200 postive on the month ~ 70% of the time. 

• dLocal Limited experienced a robust third quarter in 2024, demonstrating strong operational performance with record levels in both Total Payment Volume (TPV) and gross profit.
• Key developments indicate the company is effectively regaining momentum after a less-than-stellar start to the year.
• Positives from the quarter include a notable 41% year-over-year increase in TPV, reaching $6.5 billion.

• Williams-Sonoma, Inc. reported favorable results for their third quarter of fiscal 2024, surpassing expectations on both the top and bottom lines primarily due to improvements in sales trends, innovation, and a strong profit margin profile.
• The company’s focus on operational improvements and strategic initiatives was evidently contributing positively to its financial performance.
• Comparable sales figures saw a slight drop by 2.9%, but this was still significantly better than the industry decline of 7% during the same period.

• Deere & Company delivered a fourth quarter and full-year performance for fiscal 2024 in a context of declining sales and tough market conditions.
• The company reported net sales and revenues down 16% for the year to $51.7 billion, with equipment operations showing a sharper decline of 19%.
• Net income attributable to Deere stood at $7.1 billion, reflecting a challenging market impacted by lower agricultural demand globally.

• Dolby Laboratories’ fourth quarter results reveal a mixed performance marked by both challenges and opportunities.
• Although Global Consumer Electronics sales and box office revenues remained soft throughout the year, the company has shown solid progress in various sectors, including content creation and partnerships in music, sports, and automotive industries.
• One of the primary positive indicators is Dolby’s significant momentum in expanding its Dolby Atmos and Dolby Vision technologies.

• J&J Snack Foods Corporation experienced a year of growth in fiscal 2024, despite facing significant challenges from a complex consumer and economic environment.
• Notably, the company achieved record annual sales figures and gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 10.2%.
• These results were delivered amid pressures that affected consumer traffic in key markets including amusement parks, convenience stores, theaters, restaurants, and retail locations.

• Interparfums Inc.’s third quarter financial results for 2024 highlight several key aspects of their performance, including strengths and challenges in a fluctuating global market.
• On the positive side, the company reported its best third quarter in history, driven by robust sales across all major markets.
• North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific all saw double-digit sales growth, with North America up 12%, Western Europe 25%, and Asia Pacific 15%.

• Natera, Inc. reported a significant quarter for Q3 2024, demonstrating positive developments and some challenges inherent in its operations.
• The company achieved a notable revenue increase, reaching $439.8 million, marking a 64% rise compared to the previous year.
• This growth is largely attributed to robust performance across its testing portfolio, particularly within the oncology sector, where the company performed around 137,000 oncology tests, reflecting a substantial 54% year-over-year increase.

• Globus Medical reported robust financial performance in its third quarter of 2024, signaling strong growth and successful integration following its merger with NuVasive.
• The company reported sales of $625.7 million, representing a significant growth of 63% from the previous year.
• This was due in large part to the added contributions from the NuVasive acquisition, reflecting the initial success of the merger.

• Microsoft, one of the world’s leading technology giants, is currently facing a comprehensive antitrust investigation by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC).
• The probe, initiated by FTC Chair Lina Khan, is examining allegations that Microsoft is potentially abusing its market power in productivity software and cloud computing.
• Specifically, the FTC is scrutinizing the company’s software licensing practices, which may be preventing customers from moving their data from Microsoft’s Azure cloud service to competing platforms.

• Instacart reported its third-quarter financial results for 2024, showcasing solid performance with both Gross Transaction Value (GTV) and adjusted EBITDA exceeding guidance.
• The company posted an 11% year-over year growth in GTV, driven by a 10% increase in order volume and a 1% increase in average order value.
• Advertising and other revenue also grew by 11% year-over-year, despite some large Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) brands reducing their spending.

• Light & Wonder’s third-quarter earnings reflect a balance of positive growth trends and strategic challenges.
• The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue to $817 million, marking its 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth.
• This growth was driven by strong performance across its diversified portfolio, including land-based, social, and iGaming channels.

• Live Nation Entertainment has delivered an impressive performance in its third quarter of 2024, demonstrating strong forward-looking indicators across various segments of its operations.
• A detailed examination of the earnings results reveals both positive aspects and potential areas of concern that could impact future performance.
• Starting with Ticketmaster, Live Nation’s ticketing segment, there has been robust activity with a reported 15% increase in sales in early October year-over-year.

• The Mosaic Company’s recent earnings for the third quarter of 2024 shed light on a period marked by both operational challenges and strategic transitions.
• The company, a key player in the fertilizer industry, faced disruptions due to hurricanes in the U.S., electrical issues at potash mines in Esterhazy and Colonsay, and was also affected by a broad Canadian rail strike.
• Despite these obstacles, The Mosaic Company managed to report revenues of $2.8 billion, with a net income of $122 million and adjusted EBITDA of $448 million.

• Shift4 Payments reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, emphasizing both its achievements and areas that need improvement.
• The company set quarterly records for several key performance indicators (KPIs), including volume, gross revenue less network fees, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow.
• The adjusted EBITDA margin reached a new quarterly high of 51.3%, or nearly 54% excluding impacts from recent acquisitions.

• Skyworks Solutions posted robust performance during the fourth fiscal quarter of 2024, marked by revenues of $1.025 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.55, aligning with or surpassing prior guidance midpoints.
• The company generated $393 million in free cash flow, continuing its trend of strong cash generation, which for a second consecutive year surpassed $1.6 billion annually.
• This financial stability underpins investments in technology advancements and product development crucial for future growth.

• DXY strength through 1Q25 predicted with positive volatility
• Dollar correlations expected to remain firm, with potential pockets of soft cross correlations
• Systematic FX adoptions models highlight opportunities in FX carry via options, short volume strategy, volume reversal model, and volcurve model for 2025

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• The latest earnings result and call for NVIDIA Corporation (NVIDIA) indicate a period of remarkable growth and robust financial performance driven primarily by the adoption of its AI technologies and data center products.
• NVIDIA reported record revenue of $35.1 billion, which represents a 17% sequential increase and a striking 94% year-over-year growth, surpassing its revenue outlook of $32.5 billion.
• This growth spanned all market platforms, particularly fueled by the increasing demand for NVIDIA’s accelerated computing and AI solutions.

• Investment thesis recommends shorting Shake Shack due to declining traffic, comp growth, and new unit productivity
• Stock price has surged despite challenges, trading at over 100x earnings
• Uncertain outlook with activist investor no longer involved and unique smashburger being commoditized, raising doubts about sustainability of growth.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• WA government announces $150 million package for lithium miners, including waiving government fees for two years
• Package also includes a $50 million loan facility for interest-free loans to sustain operations
• While the news did not significantly impact stock prices, it provides some relief and support for struggling lithium companies

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• President-elect Donald Trump has become a prominent figure with the cryptocurrency market, primarily because of his ambitious vision to transform the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.” This outlook is undoubtedly positive, as the United States holds the title of the largest capital market globally and wields significant influence on the international stage.
• However, many in the crypto market appear to overlook another highly encouraging regulatory development.
• This involves the European Union’s comprehensive Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework, which will be fully implemented across EU member states on December 30th.

• Portland General Electric Company (PGE) delivered strong third-quarter 2024 financial performance, reflecting its operational efficiency and strategic initiatives.
• The company reported a GAAP net income of $94 million, or $0.90 per diluted share, doubling from $47 million, or $0.46 per share, in the same period last year.
• This significant improvement was primarily driven by lower power costs, increased demand from industrial customers, and the strategic acquisition of renewable resources.

• Entergy Corporation’s recent earnings report highlighted both positive strides and certain challenges faced by the company in the third quarter of 2024.
• The company announced an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.99, and raised their guidance range by $0.10, reflecting a strengthened financial performance despite being slightly lower than last year’s results due to last year’s exceptionally high weather-related earnings.
• They also increased their long term outlook due to a greater capital investment plan driven by growing industrial sales and a surge in clean energy product interest.

• Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) reported its third quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting key developments and regulatory activities.
• The company posted net income of $1.04 per share for Q3 2024, compared to $0.27 per share in Q3 2023.
• For the first nine months of 2024, net income reached $2.97 per share versus $4.03 per share for the same period in 2023.

• ONE Gas has reported its financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, achieving results that align with the company’s expectations.
• This performance is largely due to consistent operational execution and favorable regulatory outcomes.
• ONE Gas has cautiously updated its earnings guidance, now anticipating earnings per share (EPS) to range between $3.85 to $3.95, slightly higher than previous forecasts.

• OGE Energy Corp reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, revealing consolidated earnings of $1.09 per share, fueled by robust energy demand across all sectors and a significant rise in customer growth, which surpassed historical averages.
• The electric company recorded earnings of $1.12 per share, while the holding company posted a loss of $0.03.
• The company’s operational excellence and enhanced digital services to customers played a crucial role in these outcomes.

• Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, discusses the legacy and importance of storytelling at Disney, emphasizing the need to balance heritage and innovation.
• He shares insights on leadership qualities, such as empathy, optimism, and the ability to act decisively, as well as the importance of staying curious and patient.
• Bob also touches on the impact of technology, AI, and the role of creativity in the future of storytelling, highlighting the need to maintain human creativity and caution with AI implementation.

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• JP Morgan’s base case outcome for 2025 euro rate outlook is positive, with a focus on growing euro economy and inflation reaching 2%
• French political uncertainty may cause modest widening in intra-EMU spreads, but overall outlook remains positive
• German swap spreads expected to stay range bound with modest widening bias, driven by technical flows and repo rates

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• William Companies $WMB believes more Republican control can resolve permitting issues, which would benefit the power industry and the energy infrastructure business.

• A favorable tax outcome will also be “a very huge positive to [its] guidance in the immediate term”. 

• Energy Transfer $ET said the Trump administration will bring “a breath of fresh air.” Nov 06: Q3’24

• Brookfield Renewable Partners LP (Brookfield Renewables) delivered a robust performance in the third quarter of 2024, achieving record results in terms of funds from operations (FFO) and asset recycling, while also positioning itself strategically for future growth.
• The company’s execution of its business strategies and asset monetization initiatives have been central to its recent performance.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Walmart’s recent performance in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025 exhibited both strong growth and notable challenges.
• The company achieved a 6.1% increase in sales in constant currency, and profit grew by 9.8%, reflecting Walmart’s ability to manage costs and drive efficiency amid complex global operations.
• Key contributors to the positive results include a 27% increase in e-commerce sales, a 28% growth in advertising, and a 22% rise in membership income, which collectively helped Walmart grow profits faster than sales.

• Intel is now set to receive $7.86 billion in CHIPs Act funding, down from the $8.5 billion originally touted back in March 2024
• The funding comes with a raft of restrictions and caveats regarding what happens in the event of any changes in Intel’s organizational structure and/or ownership
• The US Department of Commerce also reserves the right to withhold funding and/or weigh in on decisions around outsourcing if Intel fails to meet key, critical milestones. Ouch!

• Halliburton’s Q3 revenue fell by 1.8% YoY and missed estimates by 2.2% dragged down by an 8.5% YoY fall in revenue from North America.
• The Completion and Production division’s revenue dropped 5.4% YoY and 3% QoQ, while the Drilling and Evaluation division posted a 3.5% YoY increase but declined 1.4% QoQ.
• Operating cash flow declined 23.5% QoQ, while free cash flow dropped 31.5%. Earnings were impacted by lost revenue from the cybersecurity incident and Gulf storms.

• In Target Corporation’s third-quarter earnings, Target witnessed a healthy 2.4% traffic growth, translating to over 10 million additional transactions compared to last year.
• This is indicative of customer engagement and loyalty, supported by the company’s attractive offerings combining essential services and promotional activities.
• The digital sector also emerged as a strong contender, showcasing an impressive growth of nearly 11%.

• Dry bulk shipping sector experienced a summer slump in Q3 2024, with companies like GNK, GOGL, and SBLK seeing stock prices fall 10-20%
• Despite the slump, GOGL has seen flat to 25% YTD increase while DSX has a YTD drop of 15%+
• DSX has lagged behind peers but offers a high dividend yield of 12.3% and trades at a significant discount to its net asset value, making it an attractive investment opportunity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Atmos Energy Corporation’s fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter results highlight a consistent growth trajectory marked by robust capital investments, enhanced operational strategies, and expanding customer base.
• The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $6.83, marking its 22nd consecutive year of EPS growth, alongside its 40th consecutive year of dividend growth.
• The fiscal year achievements reflect Atmos Energy’s successful execution of its strategy to operate safely and reliably while modernizing its natural gas distribution, transmission, and storage systems.

• Ibotta operates a performance network connecting consumers with CPG companies and retailers for digital promotions and cashback rewards
• Despite a successful IPO, Ibotta has seen a significant derating due to failing to meet expectations
• Strong partnerships, growing user base, and unique business model suggest potential for a 56% upside towards a price target of $90 and eventually $120

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Quick trading idea:  S&P 500 INDEX DAILY is overbought. Has been closing up for 7 days in a row, soon there will be a DAILY reversal (lasting => 1 day).
• The ideal area to go short is the price area above yesterday’s Close (6021.63).
• Alternatively go SHORT today at the Close. The interactive chart for the SPX DAILY can be freely accessed here.

• A rare cross asset relative value opportunity; time horizon two months, market neutral, near zero-cost premium.
• The strategy exploits the historically low difference between implied volatilities for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US).
• This insight lays out trade rationale, historical context, fundamental drivers, and trade implementation. Nasdaq-100 Vega exposure provides the strategy with an extra edge and tailwind for success.

• ServiceTitan, a VC-backed cloud-based software company for the home and commercial service industries, files to go public and may raise up to $500M.
• The company serves many trades, including plumbing, HVAC, garage doors, landscaping, pest control, water treatment, heating, construction and others.
• ServiceTitan is well positioned as a leader at scale in the trade industry. They currently operate in the United States, Canada and see significant opportunity in international markets.

• Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
• Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled “Buy the Pullback,” and last week’s Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled “Buy the Pullback Again” 
• We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.

• HireQuest is a staffing company, founded in 1991 by Richard Hermanns and Dan McAnnar.
• It started as an on-demand labor provider for daily-paid jobs.
• Over the past 3 decades, HireQuest has added long-term placements and executive recruitment services, operating as a network of different brands.

• SOC remains in limbo with the latest letter from “CalFire” creating further uncertainty as to when, if ever, SOC would be able to restart production at the Santa Ynez Unit.
• SOC was previously served with a cease and desist order from the California Coastal Commission that barred the Company from any permit work until February 2025. 
• The latest media report suggests CalFire sent a letter to the California Legislature about the agency not having authority to allow SOC to restart production.

• SYF, DFS, and ALLY are spinoffs from larger companies in consumer finance and create shareholder value through focused strategies and good management culture.
• ALLY is particularly interesting due to rate-cycle dynamics and a shift from investing in competitive strength to harvesting from past investments.
• The onboarding of a new CEO at ALLY suggests potential developments in the company’s strategy, with a focus on management culture, competitive strength investment, and the impact of the current rate cycle on earnings power.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Expion360 announced several new OEM relationships that management “expects to generate incremental revenue of $5.0 million in 2025”.
• We are electing to be more conservative with our model for the moment but we are still raising our 2025 revenue estimate from $6 million to $8.9 million.
• Our valuation target also remains unchanged at $4/share as the improving 2025 outlook is tempered by concerns about the company’s financial condition in 2025.

• CorVel is recommended as a short in a diversified short portfolio due to concerns including a low EBITDA growth rate and a high EBITDA multiple of 42x.
• The company’s impressive outperformance against NASDAQ in recent years may be unsustainable given its current valuation.
• Potential issues such as the impact of higher unemployment on workers’ compensation claims and the possibility of reduced claims due to injury prevention measures add to the author’s bearish stance on CRVL.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Last Thursday, I shared my conviction in our Telegram crypto chat:
• My two cents: We touch $100,000 (or very close) but we do not comfortably get on the other side.
• This makes all the leverage and open interest (and retail euphoria) turn against us.
• After witnessing the Bitcoin price face repeated rejections since then, I am even more confident in this view.

• Exxon Mobil’s Q3 revenue fell by 0.8% YoY and net profit decreased by 5.1%. Revenue missed estimates by 4.2% but EPS exceeded expectations by 2.3%.
• Exxon Mobil’s Q3 upstream production rose by 24% YoY to 4.6 mboepd, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin and the acquisition of Pioneer.
• Exxon attributed its better-than-expected earnings in bottom-of-cycle conditions to structural cost savings, reduced expenses, high-return investments, and selective divestments.

• Buffett has famously called Bitcoin a “mirage” and “rat poison squared”.

• If so, then the corporate wrapper masquerading as intelligent leverage of Bitcoin known as MSTR equals that squared — and is perhaps the epitome of late-stage capital cycles expressed

• Before I start, let me just say that I completely get the bull thesis behind Bitcoin. 

• Chevron’s Q3 revenue declined 6.3% YoY, while its net profit dropped 31.2%. Yet it beat its revenue and EPS estimates by 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively.  
• Chevron achieved a record Q3 output of 3.36 mboepd, up 7% YoY, driven by Permian growth. Full-year production growth is expected near the top of its 4-7% guidance.
• Chevron returned USD 4.7 billion in buybacks and USD 2.9 billion in dividends. Q4 is expected to see USD 1 billion in dividends and USD 4–4.75 billion in buybacks.

• Old Republic International Corporation reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing mixed results influenced by a range of market factors.
• The company’s consolidated pretax operating income declined to $229 million, down from $251 million in the prior year.
• Similarly, the consolidated combined ratio rose to 95% from last year’s 92%, indicating a deterioration in underwriting performance.

• The Hanover Insurance Group’s recent financial results for the third quarter show a complex but generally positive picture of the company’s performance.
• The firm reported an operating income of $3.05 per diluted share, with an operating return on equity of 14.4%.
• This performance reflects improvements driven by strategic initiatives such as enhanced pricing, adjustments in insurance value, and targeted underwriting actions.

• CNA Financial Corporation reported strong financial performance in the third quarter, reflecting robust growth in core income and investment results, as well as strong underwriting performance.
• The core income for the quarter was $293 million, driven by a $73 million increase in net investment income to $626 million pre-tax.
• This surge in investment income was propelled by the positive performance of CNA’s alternatives portfolio and the growth of its fixed-income investments, which benefitted from higher book yields and a larger asset base.

• Lincoln National Corporation delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, showcasing its highest quarterly adjusted operating income in over two years.
• This reflects positive momentum across all its business lines, driven by strategic initiatives focused on capital foundation, operating model optimization, and profitable growth.
• The company has made considerable progress in aligning its operations with these strategic goals, although it acknowledges that the transformations required are part of a multiyear journey.

• C3.ai has been the subject of intense discussions on Reddit and other social platforms, with its stock witnessing significant volatility.
• The buzz was fueled by its deepening partnership with Microsoft, robust pilot growth, and enhanced revenue projections.
• The company recently reported its sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth, closing Q1 FY25 with $87.2 million in revenue, up 21% year-over-year.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
• We believe, after an outstanding Halloween season, Build-A-Bear pivoted to the Holiday offerings, with the return of Glisten & The Merry Mission “furry friends,” new Sanrio and Stich Holiday-themed looks, the addition of Holiday Mini Beans and key items for the Wicked motion picture release.
• As such, and with gift card sales remaining robust, we believe Build-A-Bear is poised for a very strong Holiday period, especially when the costs of the Glisten movie are not anniversaried.

• Trump’s energy policy focused on increasing domestic production and exerting pressure on oil exports to bring down prices
• Forecast for 2025 and 2026 predicts global commodities market growth and potential oil price fluctuations
• OPEC members plan to increase capacity in 2025, leading to a large surplus in the oil market and potentially lower prices in 2026

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• Initiate a short position in MCHP Target Price Range: $45-50 Time Horizon: 6-12 months 
• Declining fundamentals: Q2 FY2025 revenue declined 48% YoY, with adjusted EPS falling 72% YoY. Valuation concerns: P/E of 36.8x vs. sector median of 22x, unsupported by current performance.  
• Geo-Political risk: 50% of sales from Asia, exposed to potential trade tensions. Operational challenges: Customer destocking and sluggish demand. ETF-Driven price support: Potential for sharp correction if sector rotation occurs. 

• Benson Hill’s share price decline amid no management updates raises concerns of potential buyout failure and urgent funding needs.
• Indiana Resources announced a special dividend after settling with Tanzania, with further shareholder returns expected by 2025.
• Grifols rejected Brookfield Asset Management’s buyout offer, maintaining a 22% discount between Class A and Class B shares.

• The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 583 for the week ending on 22/Nov, reporting a second consecutive weekly fall.
• For the week ending 15/Nov, US oil production fell to 13.2m bpd from 13.4m bpd. Output was at a record high of 13.5m bpd between 11/Oct through 01/Nov.
• US energy producers added two rigs in Texas and one each in Wyoming and Oklahoma. They cut three rigs in Louisiana and one each in California and Colorado.

• Disappointing September/October China lending data with TSF down 9%/24% YoY to 3.7/1.4 trillion RMB Vs. (analysts expectations of 4/1.5 trillion RMB) has led to skepticism about China’s recovery story.
• Copper prices have dropped below 9000 USD/ton and stayed there despite the fall of exchange inventories. 
• We like the LT copper story and see long-term benefits for stocks like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US). 

• The company continues to make progress with its international expansion which partially offsets concerns over the challenges in the company’s domestic market.
• Estimating the total number of shares (and by default ADSs) outstanding has been incredibly challenging as the company has financed operations by issuing stock as the market price of the ADSs has fallen.
• We now estimate that the company has 164 million common shares outstanding which equates to 1.8 million ADSs given the new ADS to common ratio of 1 to 90.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $6 price target for Vera Bradley after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
• With Black Friday and the core of the Holiday shopping season looming, Vera Bradley is focused on emphasizing key price points, driving gifting traffic, leveraging licensed looks (Wicked and Disney) and expanding their offerings to a new, younger customer looking for key gifting and personal items for events and Holiday festivities.
• With discounts similar to last year, we believe management is focused on continuing to expand the Vera Bradley look to a wider range of customers and create a more enduring brand; Xmas 2024 will be a key test.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $29 price target and projections for Guess?
• after visiting stores in the New York City metropolitan and Long Island areas.
• The company has continued to focus on Fall/Winter fashion favorites such as sweaters, outerwear and activewear in multiple looks, fabrics and cuts.

• On November 25, 2024, Imunon, Inc. (IMNN) announced it had reached alignment with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its proposed plan for a Phase 3 trial of IMNN-001 for the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer.
• This includes the overall trial design, the target patient population, the treatment schedule, and the primarly endpoint.
• The finalized protocol is on track to be submitted in December 2024 and we anticipate the 500-patient Phase 3 trial initiating in the first quarter of 2025.

• On November 11, 2024, MediciNova, Inc. (MNOV) announced that it was notified by Genzyme, a subsidiary of Sanofi, that the Sanofi/Novartis litigation was settled.
• While the details are unknown at this time, Medicinova is entitled to receive a certain portion of any monetary damages collected by Genzyme.
• We anticipate an update from the company when further details are available.

• NVIDIA this week reported Q3FY25 revenues of $35.082 billion, up 17% QoQ, up 94% YoY and a full $2.5 billion above the guided midpoint.
• Looking ahead, NVIDIA is forecasting revenues of $37.5 billion, up ~7% sequentially. Gross margins to decline slightly to 73%.
• Contrary to Jensen Huang’s vision, the existing $1 trillion worth of data centers do not need to be “modernized” into AI factories. This is pure fantasy. 

• Edwards Lifesciences reported third-quarter 2024 results, showcasing notable achievements with financial metrics and strategic advancements across various product lines.
• The company, specialized in structural heart disease innovations, marked a revenue of $1.4 billion, a rise of 10% on a constant currency basis compared to the year prior, subtly surpassing expectations.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there are some finer points to focus on.
• NVIDIA reports Q3 EPS $0.81 ex-items vs FactSet $0.75. Reports Q3: Revenue $35.08B vs FactSet $33.17B (2 billion beat like clockwork)
• Q4 Guidance: Revenue $37.5B +/- 2% vs FactSet $37.09B (a bit light). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 73.0% and 73.5%, respectively, +/- 50 bps. (also light)

• On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;
• TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn’t cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;
• TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump’s Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.

• In the second edition of Crypto Moves, published almost exactly a year ago, I shared this conviction:“Perhaps the only thing you want to know is: Do we expect the Bitcoin halving to cause a new run?”“The short answer is yes.
• In this edition of Crypto Moves, we assess Bitcoin’s current position in its historical 4-year cycle. The 4-year cycle is fundamentally tied to Bitcoin’s halvings, which occurs roughly every four years and halves the mining block reward.
• This process has now taken place four times, reducing the reward from 50 bitcoins per block to just 3.125 bitcoins per block.

• Arthur J.
• Gallagher & Company reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing a robust performance across its core segments, Brokerage and Risk Management.
• The company’s revenue growth was impressive at 13%, with organic growth marking 6%.

• Globalstar reported strong results for the third quarter of 2024, with notable growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
• Total revenue grew by 25% from the previous year, reaching a record $72 million.
• Service revenue increased by 28%, primarily driven by wholesale capacity revenue and the recognition of performance bonuses for 2023 and part of 2024.

• Nexstar Media Group reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, delivering record high revenues and showcasing strong operational performance in a challenging media landscape.
• The company achieved its highest third-quarter total net revenue, driven by record-setting distribution and political advertising revenues.
• The financial results reflect a solid balance between increasing revenues and maintaining cost efficiency, showcasing Nexstar’s ability to leverage its extensive media assets effectively.

• Abbott has demonstrated robust performance in its third quarter of 2024 with an organic sales growth of over 8%, excluding COVID testing sales, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.21.
• These results underscore the company’s capacity to execute its multifaceted strategy effectively, despite varying performance across different sectors.
• Notably, the U.S. Pediatric Nutrition segment showed remarkable growth, leading with a 12% increase due to gains in the infant formula business.

• Boston Scientific Corporation presented its third quarter of 2024 financial results, reflecting a strong performance that exceeded company forecasts and investor expectations.
• The corporation reported a significant growth in operational sales by 19% and organic sales by 18%, surpassing the anticipated guidance range of 13% to 15%.
• Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew by 27% to $0.63, also exceeding the projections of $0.57 to $0.59.

• AutoZone, Inc. delivered a robust performance in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024, led by significant sales increases and growth strategies in both its domestic and international operations.
• The company’s total sales surged by 9% in the fourth quarter, while earnings per share (EPS) increased by 11%.
• Underpinning these results was a consistent focus on customer service excellence and strategic expansion, particularly in commercial sales and international operations.

• Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK), a leading IoT cloud platform in China, was listed on the 18th March 2021 at US$21.00/ADS. The share price is currently down 92.5%. 
• Tuya subsequently established a primary dual-listing in Hong Kong on the 5th July 2022, priced at HK$19.30/share. Those shares are down ~23% 
• Temasek-Backed 65 Equity Partners has now acquired a 13% stake (equivalent to ~6.2% of the voting rights) in Tuya, with a view to establishing a secondary listing on the SGX.

• Qualcomm is aggressively pushing into the PC market, aiming to transform its identity from a mobile chip giant to a diversified computing powerhouse.
• At its recent investor day, Qualcomm announced bold revenue projections of $4 billion from PC chips by 2029, alongside significant strides in automotive, industrial IoT, and XR markets.
• This marks a pivotal moment as Qualcomm ventures beyond its traditional smartphone business, which currently accounts for 75% of its chip revenue.

• Harmonic reported record results for the third quarter of 2024, with total company revenue and profitability exceeding expectations.
• The company’s Broadband and Video segments both contributed significantly to this performance, showcasing strong execution on business plans.
• The Broadband revenue reached $145.3 million, marking a 92% year-over-year increase and a 56% sequential increase.

• In late 2022, the company began its evolution from a consumer-focused, U.S. restaurant business into a global, food-focused organization with two distinct business units.
• The company’s largest operating unit is Sadot Agri-Foods, which is a vertically integrated international food supply chain company engaged in trading and shipping sustainable food and commodities such as soybeans, wheat and corn.
• Sadot’s legacy restaurant business is currently in the process of being divested.

• Contribution from Amer Sports (AS US) will rise to 5.1%, 7.2%, and 8.9% of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)‘s earnings in FY24-26, making it increasingly important.
• Amer turned around sharply YoY in 3Q24 with a net profit of US$55.8m. Its gross margin sustained an uptrend, with excellent potential for business growth in Greater China.
• Positive guidance on FY25 outlook with a low-double-digit-to-mid-teens level revenue growth, further expansion in operating margin, and continuous cuts in net finance costs.

• Ralph Lauren Corporation’s second-quarter fiscal year 2025 results highlighted several areas of progress and challenges within the company.
• The company’s ability to outperform in a choppy global operating environment and deliver growth across various metrics underscores the effectiveness of its diversified growth strategy.
• Ralph Lauren continues to cement brand desirability and strong engagements across a broad and expanding consumer base, driven by substantial investments in brand-building initiatives and marketplace positioning.

• Sunrun’s third-quarter earnings report for 2024 presents an intricate picture of the company’s operational and financial landscape amid both progress and challenges in the renewable energy sector.
• On the positive side, Sunrun achieved a significant milestone by reaching over one million customers, marking a substantial increase in its customer base.
• The company’s focus on expanding its storage offerings is noteworthy, with 60% of new customers opting for storage packages, a notable rise from the previous year’s 33%.

• The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet?
• This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has begun to return as risks were initially overestimated.
• Nuclear energy is likely an underappreciated theme in the new Trump administration, while tariff threats appear overblown.

• Five9 Inc., a leading provider in the cloud-based contact center software space, demonstrated several key positives and potential challenges in their latest financial results and business activities.
• The company’s focus on artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced cloud-based customer engagement solutions has contributed positively to its growth trajectory.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Capri Holdings Limited reported mixed financial results for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2023, navigating a challenging economic environment while demonstrating resilience across its luxury brands—Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors.
• The company achieved a high-single-digit increase in revenue and mid-single-digit growth in earnings per share on a constant-currency basis over the fiscal year.
• However, the results fell short of initial expectations, particularly in the wholesale channel, which experienced significant declines.