United States

• Back on the 26th January, proxy advisor Glass Lewis issued a report recommending Hollysys Automation (HOLI US) shareholders vote against Ascendent’s merger. Two days later, ISS shared a similar view.
• Both proxy advisors should read HOLI’s latest proxy statements. Negotiating with Dazheng is like something out of the wild west. The Special Committee gave the consortium considerable latitude. 
• Passive investors will follow GL/ISS, which could jeopardize the vote on the 8th Feb. It should not come to this. 

• 1P revenue grew HSD and Amazon’s revenue ex 1P increased by high-teens last quarter.
• Since I continue to rate Amazon retail to be relatively overlooked driver for Amazon, let me start with margin discussions on retail.
• North America’s operating margin bottomed at -2.3% 1Q’22 and has since then increased by more than 800 bps to reach 6.1% in 4Q’23, just shy of the pre-pandemic high of 6.4% in 1Q’19.

• Due to a reallocation of resources, we are terminating coverage of Regis Corporation (RGS).
• Our previous rating, price target and estimates for Regis Corporation (RGS) should no longer be relied upon.
• Historical disclosures will be provided upon request.

Key points (machine generated)

• Janus International Group is a leading manufacturer and provider of self-storage doors and locks, operating in three main sales channels.
• The company is a pioneer in smart lock technology with its Noke wireless solution, giving it a competitive advantage.
• Janus has a strong value proposition due to the high cost of failure of its products, which are considered mission-critical, allowing the company to capture high margins and outpace market growth in a recession-proof industry.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Take a look at the Facebook’s DAU or MAU number for the last time because Meta will stop reporting them from next quarter.
• Investors usually assume the worst when any important KPI gets deprecated by the company.
• Thankfully, along with Family “Daily Active People” (DAP), Meta will report YoY changes in ad impressions and average price per ad by region.

Key points (machine generated)

• TransUnion has diversified its offerings beyond credit reporting, reducing its sensitivity to the consumer credit cycle.
• The company has a strong competitive advantage and generates high margins and free cash flow.
• Despite a recent decline in share price and a soft Q3 earnings report, the current valuation presents a good entry point for long-term investors.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) and Dazheng have traded barbs since Glass Lewis and ISS recommended voting against Ascendent’s US$26.50 offer at the EGM on 8 February.  
• While Dazheng may have been held to a higher standard than Ascendent, the proxy statement shows that the impasse was mainly due to Dazheng’s inability to get its act together. 
• The simple majority voting threshold and no shareholder publicly backing Dazheng’s call to vote NO will help the vote get up. The gross/annualised spread for an end-March close is 7.1%/52.1%.

• Soybean continues to face bearish outlook with supply surplus and lagging demand.
• Soybean price reached a 2-year low this month, with some using the bargain prices as a buying opportunity.
• US exports lag but recent uptick in large export sales suggests the availability of buyers at these prices.

• Hawkins (HWKN) reported fiscal third quarter (December) results benefiting from higher mix of water treatment sales as the industrial segment dealt with its seasonal soft period
• HWKN has grown its water treatment segment through acquisitions including several made towards the beginning of the December segment
• Water treatment sales were approximately $9 million less than expected due to the timing of acquisitions closing and their sales contribution during a seasonally soft quarter for the segment

• Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip’s 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.
• Why the worst among all? We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.
• Priced in? We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg’s -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.

• Recently Avrobio (AVRO) announced a reverse merger with Tectonic Therapeutic, which was a bit unexpected.
• And disappointing. From what I have read from people more knowledgeable about biotechs, they have some promising treatments in development with pretty impressive insiders.
• But I have no idea how to value this. Net cash will be <$1/share post merger so I am closing this with a small loss at $1.25.

• The contract environment is proving advantageous for Seadrill (SDRL) with the Company announcing two more contracts
• We estimate one of the contracts has a day rate of $500,000 and should result in other bidding activity to reach and eventually exceed this level in 2024
• The day rates SDRL has announced for the latest contracts, along with the two contracts in December 2023, demonstrate there is demand to pay the higher day rates 

• NTGR is making a CEO change just as the business has stabilized. Patrick Lo has retired and is being replaced by CJ Prober 
• NTGR has also issued updated fourth quarter results with the business achieving positive non-GAAP operating margin
• NTGR is forecasting revenue of between $179 million and $189 million. We were already projecting revenue of $187.3 million and are keeping our estimate unchanged

Key points (machine generated)

• Timber REITs, specifically Potlach and Weyerhaeuser, are overvalued and have not adjusted to the current interest rate environment.
• Potlach has experienced declining timberland volumes due to issues in the US north and Canada, and the recent rise in interest rates is not expected to improve this.
• Potlach is also considered expensive relative to its forward EV/EBITDA multiple and consensus 1-year forward numbers, leading the author to recommend shorting the stock.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Earlier this week, we shifted to a bullish stance as we noticed promising developments in the cryptocurrency market.
• Concurrently, we launched our cryptocurrency portfolio.
• However, our short-term optimism has been tempered slightly.

• Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, up 6% QoQ and up 10% YoY
• Q124 guidance was for $5.4 billion at the midpoint, down 13% QoQ and flat YoY.
• We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of >70% YoY with potential for further upside

• Amer Sports (AS US) raised around US$1.3bn in its US IPO, after pricing its IPO below its initial range, as per media reports.
• Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.
• We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• A change of pace from the usual Asia-Pac stubs: Delek US (DK US), a deep value downstream refining and logistic (via 78.7% held Delek Logistics Partners (DKL US)) play
• Preceding my comments on Delek are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• ARLO maintained a steady presence of inventory and pricing during the holiday shopping of the fourth quarter and now ARLO is scheduled to report Q4 results in February
• ARLO introduced a line of Essential cameras at Wal-Mart, which we believe was a success and should contribute to fourth quarter 2023 revenue and first quarter 2024 net subscriber adds
• ARLO ended the September quarter with approximately 2.5 million paid subscribers. We are projecting ARLO added 170 thousand paid subscribers in the fourth quarter

• This is our first report on global insurance major, Marsh McLennan.
• The company had a mixed quarterly result as it failed to meet the revenue expectations of analysts but managed an earnings beat.
• The company recently announced the acquisition of MZI (McDonald Zaring Insurance), a full-service agency situated in Walla Walla, Washington.

• Analyzing the recent earnings call of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), it appears that the company’s strategy for future growth focuses on four strategic pivots: the solutions portfolio, go-to-market strategy, company culture, and brand strength.
• Following this strategy, SAIC seek to maintain its leading position in the market and deliver long-term value for stakeholders.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• This is our first report on entertainment major, Penn National Gaming.
• The company generated revenues of $1.62 billion and an adjusted EBITDAR of $445.1 million in the third quarter.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Key points (machine generated)

• Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is considered a value trap and not a good investment due to its stagnant stock price since July 2010 and declining operating income over the past 14 years.
• The author suggests that AAP could present a good short opportunity and could serve as a hedge against industry and macro risks for a long position in competitor O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY).
• The author highlights the challenges of retail in general and the failure of many tier 2 and tier 3 players in the past.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Soluna’s AI datacenter initiative advancing. Progress continues on the ‘Helix’ AI pilot that is part of Project Dorothy 2, with its engineering team working on the new design with a leading datacenter design firm.
• In addition, Soluna has retained BitOoda Technologies LLC as a financial advisor to assist with raising capital for the new AI business venture that we expect will house the company’s AI-related assets going forward.
• We continue to see AI as driving the next phase in Soluna’s growth, opening it to a market opportunity well in excess of the still-growing Bitcoin mining market.

• This is our first report on HashiCorp, a software company that offers cloud infrastructure automation.
• The company recently reported on its third-quarter fiscal 2024 financial results.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• 2QFY24 (December) ongoing EPS was $0.10 versus ($0.07) in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $0.04 estimate.
• Ongoing EBITDA was $3.1MM in the quarter, well above the $0.8MM in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $2.5MM estimate.
• EBITDA margins of 6.0% exceeded our 4.6% estimate.

• Q423 revenues of $2.49 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3.6% QoQ but down 15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ.
• Current quarter guidance of $2.3 billion, down 8% QoQ and also down around 5% YoY
• Interesting Q&A discussion on backlog. KLAC’s order book is risker than their peers due to their shorter lead times. Something to watch…

• Outlook for interest rates in 2024 remains uncertain with market expectations diverging from Fed’s dot plot. Overall, rate cuts are expected in 2024.
• Lower rate outlook for 2024 will drive higher deal-making which is likely to benefit Goldman. A slowdown in the US economy could hamper Goldman’s recovery.
• Market metrics point to a positive sentiment around Goldman Sachs stock amongst analysts with summary analyst recommendation pointing to a Buy rating and average upside of 11%.

• This is our first report on web-based social media management solution provider, Sprout Social.
• In its most recent quarter, a comprehensive social media management software company, delivered positive Q3 results reflecting good progress in meeting their objectives.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• The S&P 500 INDEX is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT, it may continue higher this week or the next but a pullback is behind the corner.
• Currently the index has reached beyond the Q3 resistance target (4897) and it’s up 4 weeks in a row.
• Cover your LONG holdings for the upcoming pullback, going SHORT is also possible but maybe won’t be much profitable as we expect the index main rally to last into April.

Key points (machine generated)

• LianBio is winding down its portfolio of in-licensed drug candidates and returning cash to shareholders.
• The company recently sold exclusive rights to develop and commercialize mavacamten in certain areas of Asia to Bristol Myers Squibb for $350 million.
• LianBio will have approximately $600 million in net cash after the transaction, exceeding its current market capitalization of around $434 million. A strategic review is ongoing, and it is expected that the company will wind down its business and distribute cash to shareholders, potentially leading to a higher share price reflecting its cash holdings.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• This is our first report on Rapid7, a renowned cybersecurity solutions provider.
• The company posted its third quarter 2023 financial results, highlighting an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $777 million and a growth of 14% over the previous year.
• Rapid7 also showcased strong demand for its integrated security operations solutions, particularly its consolidated offerings.

• Now that the U.S Big 4 airlines have all reported their earnings, let’s look at some of the key trends underpinning the airline industry this quarter.
• The industry continues to be marred by several macro trends, including a triple whammy of inflation-driven increasing maintenance and labor costs, supply chain issues, and the unreliability of a major supplier (Boeing).
• Boeing’s perennial woes seemed to be a major point of discussion as every Big 4 airline faced an analyst question about it during their earnings calls.

• This is our first report on mobile satellite services provider, Globalstar.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
• We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price.

• This is our first report on Cogent Communications Holdings.
• The company had a decent performance in the third quarter of 2023 highlighting the recent acquisition of the Sprint business on May 1, 2023, which expanded Cogent’s network and customer base and materially increased the scope and scale of their business.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on DevOps platform provider, JFrog.
• Most importantly, the year-over-year growth of JFrog’s cloud business rose by 46%, contributing $30.6 million to the total revenue.
• Non-GAAP profit stood at $16.6 million, generating a free cash flow of $25.4 million.

• On the 26th January, proxy advisor Glass Lewis issued a report recommending Hollysys (HOLI US) shareholders vote against Ascendent’s merger. Two days later, ISS issued a similar opinion.  
• Both reports targeted HOLI’s efforts to maximize an Offer price. Elsewhere, some salient points were raised. But overall, there exists an air of naivety in their conclusions.
• HOLI’s EGM is scheduled for February 8th. The merger consideration of US$26.50/share is in line with, or above, the estimated values of Deutsche Bank’s fairness opinion.

• LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY
• Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.
• The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX. 

• Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
• Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. 
• Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.

• Intel reported earnings last week. Intel was one of my favorite stocks last year, and I wrote about it here in “Is This the Intel Inflection”, where I successfully called the bottom in the stock.
• It’s worked pretty well, even against the SOXX index since then.
• I’ll summarize my thesis back then, update you now on what I think about Intel, and write about results and read-throughs.

• “El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June),” the Australian Bureau of Meteorology wrote last week.
• Even more the institute forecasts that El Nino may completely dissipate by June.
• For our clients, that won’t come as a surprise as we highlighted this scenario over a couple of weeks.

Key points (machine generated)

• Mitek specializes in mobile image capture and digital identity verification solutions, with approximately 60% of its business in mobile image capture and 40% in digital identity verification.
• The company has experienced strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 18% to 22% over the past one, three, and five years, reaching approximately $170 million as of September 2023.
• Mitek has focused on using profits from its mature mobile image capture business to build its identity verification segment, but the mobile deposit business has also grown at a similar rate, limiting portfolio rebalancing in recent years.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)

• Farmer Brothers, a small company with a market cap under $100 million, has undergone a board refresh and cooperation agreement following operational missteps and poor management execution.
• The company has agreed to sell its Northlake, Texas coffee facility and non-direct store delivery coffee business to TreeHouse Foods for around $100 million.
• These recent events have caused Farmer Brothers’ stock to be undervalued, with attractive valuation ratios, making it a potentially appealing investment opportunity.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)

• AVDL is a pharmaceutical company that has recently launched LUMRYZ, a drug used to treat Narcolepsy, a rare sleeping disorder.
• LUMRYZ is an improved version of two existing drugs, Xyrem and Xywav, which generate $1.9 billion in annual revenue and have around 16,000 patients on the drug.
• LUMRYZ aims to address the inconvenience of the unusual dosing profile of Xyrem and Xywav, which require patients to take two doses, with the second dose taken in the middle of the night.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• This is our first report on global hotels major, Choice Hotels International.
• The company’s CEO, Patrick Pacious, and CFO, Scott Oaksmith, provided details on their financial results and strategic initiatives, including the proposed acquisition of Wyndham Hotels & Resorts.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report electrical and mechanical construction, and facilities services provider, EMCOR Group.
• This has resulted in all-time quarterly records for revenues, gross profits, operating income, operating margin, diluted EPS, and remaining performance obligations (RPOs).
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• Q423 revenues of $15.4 billion, +8.5% QoQ, +10% YoY and $300 million above the guided midpoint
• Q124 guided to $12.7 billion, -17.5% QoQ albeit still up 8% YoY.  
• Intel’s share priced fell 12% on the guide. CEO says this was an overreaction. 

• This is our first report on Marriott Vacations Worldwide.
• On the positive side, contract sales across Europe and Asia Pacific increased by a notable 42% year-over-year proving the company’s strong international growth.
• Another positive aspect is the successful launch of the Hyatt Vacation Club brand and the new BEYOND program, which increased the number of travel offerings for Hyatt Vacation Club owners.

• This is our first report on Yelp Inc.
• The management addressed strong performance across several key metrics.
• They reported an impressive 10th consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth, achieving a record net revenue of $345 million which signifies a 12% YoY increase.

• This is our first report on PowerSchool Group Inc., an education technology company.
• The company recorded promising results in its Third Quarter 2023 Earnings.
• We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price.

• This is our first report on cloud- based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform operator, Upstart Holdings, Inc.
• Its recent results reveal a diverse picture as substantial growth and progress are achieved in the midst of a challenging lending environment.
• The positives are the company’s rapid strides in advancing its artificial intelligence lending platform, achievement as a financially sound company, growth in fee revenue, increase in team size, and AI platform expansion.

• This is our first report on Casey’s General Stores.
• The company’s performance in the previous quarter remains solid as it delivered strong second-quarter results.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on Axcelis Technologies.
• As the power market continues to strengthen, Axcelis is guiding for Q4 2023 revenue with a gross margin of approximately 45% and an EPS of around 00.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on apparel major, American Eagle Outfitters.
• In the third quarter of 2023, American Eagle Outfitters achieved record revenue of $1.3 billion, buoyed by both strong in-store performance and a 10% growth in its digital channel.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on Axcelis Technologies.
• As the power market continues to strengthen, Axcelis is guiding for Q4 2023 revenue with a gross margin of approximately 45% and an EPS of around 00.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on eye health major, Bausch + Lomb Corporation.
• The company’s Q3 2023 Earnings Call reported an 8% increase in revenue, growth attributed to strengths across its well established and emerging brands that cover the whole spectrum of eye health.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• Bloomberg reports that Glass Lewis has recommended Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) shareholders vote against Ascendent Capital’s US$26.50 offer on 8 February.
• Glass Lewis notes that Hollysys could fetch “potentially materially greater value” from other bidders. Glass Lewis seems to ignore that Dazheng failed to demonstrate that it could complete its offer.
• Despite Glass Lewis’s recommendation, the vote will likely get up. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for an end-March close is 4.5%/28.0%.

• As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a “beat.”
• Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model).
• Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it’s healthier, more profitable and more successful than it is, which greatly overstates its ability to weather the storm already upon it.

• Goldman reported FY and Q4 2023 earnings and revenue that topped analysts estimates. Goldman stands to benefit from higher deal-making and lower operating expenses in 2024.
• FY2023 earnings and revenue were lower than FY2022 as Goldman faced large losses on its real estate portfolio and retreat from its consumer banking push.
• Q4 earnings beat expectations by a huge margin but investment banking fees continued to lag; heading into a looser monetary environment in 2024, Goldman stands to outperform.

Key points (machine generated)

• Fidelity National has a track record of creating value through acquiring and spinning off financial businesses, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
• The recent partial spin-off of F&G Annuities & Life Inc. and the decline in mortgage origination volumes make now a good time to invest in Fidelity National.
• The author recommends taking a long position in Fidelity National, while hedging exposure to FG, as they believe the title business is undervalued.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)

• Expanding into emerging markets like mobile gaming presents potential for growth.
• The founder’s strong understanding of the industry and long-term approach align with the company’s growth potential.
• Untapped value in the game pipeline and potential expansion into mobile gaming could drive further growth for tinyBuild.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We are initiating coverage of Starco Brands, Inc. (“Starco” or the “Company”), an emerging owner and marketer of branded consumer goods, with a Buy rating and price target of $0.25, or 26X our December 2024 Adjusted EBITDA.
• Starco’s stable of brands includes: Art of Sport body and skincare products, Skylar hypoallergenic fragrance and beauty products; Soylent plant-based food products, Whipshots vodka infused whipped cream aerosols and Winona butter flavored popcorn spray.
• As such, we view STCB as a rapidly growing owner of highly differentiated brands, with the business model to register consistent and strong overall top and EBITDA returns and are initiating coverage of STCB with a Buy rating and $0.25 price target.

Key points (machine generated)

• Integra enjoys a high level of trust in the quality and reliability of its products, particularly in the neurosurgical equipment and wound healing grafts segments.
• The acquisition of Codman in 2017 resulted in a significant expansion of Integra’s neurosurgery sub-segment.
• Surgeons prefer Integra’s brands due to their superior performance and the trust they have in the company’s products. The tissue segment uses a variety of raw materials, including animal sources and synthetic materials.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)

• A case involving Ambase is expected to go to trial or be resolved through summary judgment in early 2025.
• The outcome of this litigation will have a significant impact on the potential value of Ambase as an investment, as its current market cap is significantly below the potential claim.
• The upcoming document discovery process and motions for summary judgment will allow investors to evaluate the chances of a positive outcome and potential net recovery for Ambase shareholders.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)

• Lamb Weston’s stock price has dropped by about 30% since July 2023 due to market concerns regarding the potential impact of GLP-1s on consumer consumption and caloric intake behavior, particularly in the greasy fried foods category.
• Despite this decline, experts believe it is an overreaction and a good opportunity for investors. Lamb Weston is considered a high-quality business with strong pricing power and long-term earnings growth potential.
• The stock decline is attributed to misunderstandings, including reports of volume decline and concerns about demand and pricing power, which are not accurately reflecting the company’s true prospects.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Blended ASP of decline of 1% q/q in the past two quarters in 2H23, better than 3-10% q/q decline during 3Q22-2Q23, resulting in Tesla’s blended ASP decline to decelerate.
• Due to Tesla’s cost cutting efforts with nice inventory control, we calculates profits/EV rebounded nicely by 21% q/q to US$3,490 per EV in 4Q23, much nicer than no profits.
• Good improvement on its FSD Beta version 12.1.2 lately might become a pure profits/EV boost by incremental subscription of US$10,000-15,000 per EV or monthly fee by existing Tesla owners.

• SK Hynix results surpised consensus with a swing to positive operating profit; The company expects industry demand growth to exceed supply growth by a wide margin in 2024E.
• Management suggests optimism not just for 2024E, but also for 2025E. 2025E is when a much larger positive demand impact from AI is expected as AI products will expand substantially.
• SK Hynix comments regarding AI phones imply that consumers will most likely need to upgrade their phones, including iPhones, to take full advantage of AI capabilities

• This is our first report on MicroStrategy, a company at the forefront of enterprise analytics software.
• In the third quarter of 2023, the company revealed notable developments in both its primary software ventures and its strategic Bitcoin investments.
• The overall revenue for this period reached $129.5 million, marking a 3% year-over year increase, with a significant 16% rise in software license revenues, totaling $45 million.

• In our 2023 thematic outlook, we highlighted that on-chain insurance is a DeFi sub-sector that remains underdeveloped.
• Today, DeFi has largely covered the services offered by TradFi, such as payments, lending and exchanges; as well as central, commercial and investment banking services.
• There is also DeFi insurance (or more accurately termed as ‘DeFi cover,’ since the solutions provided are more discretionary than contractual; and may not be regulated), but presently it is not being offered as extensively as traditional insurance

• This is our first report on cruise operator, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.
• The company achieved record revenue, meeting or exceeding the guidance on all key metrics.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• This is our first report on electronics major, Whirlpool Corporation.
• The company delivered a solid third quarter performance in a challenging macro environment, supported by satisfying North American growth and improved cost-management measures.
• The company also successfully achieved $300 million in cost takeout actions, a performance that charts Whirlpool on course to deliver over $800 million of cost takeout actions in 2023.

• This is our first report on clinical diagnostic products manufacturer, Bio-Rad Laboratories.
• The company’s financial results for the third quarter of 2023 show varying performances across segments.
• The call highlighted key issues including the impacts of Bio-pharma and the challenges in the economic conditions in China on the company’s performances.

• The podcast will feature an anonymous source who will be disguised and have their voice altered, similar to investigative shows.
• The guest, known as high yield Harry, runs social media accounts and a newsletter where they chronicle events in the credit markets.
• The discussion will focus on the credit markets, investor demand, the impact of higher interest rates, and the players involved in making loans and deals.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• This is our first report on information solutions and services provider, CACI International.
• The Q1 2024 results from CACI International indicate a strong performance.
• Additionally, free cash flow exceeded expectations, and the company executed a $150 million share repurchase program.

• Coverage launch on Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines following the rejection of the JetBlue/Spirit deal by the US.
• High leverage and above-sector cost inflation put each carrier in a difficult competitive position, driving the need for significant structural earnings improvements to achieve financial sustainability
• We are 10% above consensus 2024 EBITDAR for Frontier, narrowly above for JetBlue but 17% below consensus for Spirit.

• The bond basis is a significant concern for investors, as the long end of the curve has been steepening and rates are rising, increasing the probability of shifts in the cheapest deliverable (CTD).
• There are several bonds that are nearly equally cheap, meaning they are not currently the CTD but are close enough to potentially become the CTD. This could impact futures pricing.
• Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with a strike price of 118. This can mimic a long basis position.

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• IPAR closed out 2023 with the same momentum that has been generating sales growth the last several years.
• The consumer has been receptive to fragrance and there has been no sign of slowing demand for the category
• IPAR provided preliminary fourth quarter sales of $329 million versus our estimate of $316.5 million. Sales growth within IPAR’s top selling brands was through Coach and Guess

• We are initiating coverage of SurgePays (SURG), a forward- looking financial technology and telecommunications firm dedicated to serving the underbanked.
• Its wireless subsidiaries provide mobile broadband, voice, and SMS services to subsidized and direct retail prepaid customers primarily through the US Federal Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP).
• SURG has built a profitable business in the ACP segment of the wireless market.

Key points (machine generated)

• YETI is recommended as a short investment for the next few years due to its declining growth and loss of ground to competitors like Stanley Tumbler.
• The sustainability of YETI’s brand advantage is questioned, comparing it to other companies that have failed in the past.
• The author suggests that YETI may face a similar fate if it does not reverse its current trends.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Express, but lowering our 4QFY23 projections after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
• That said, we believe the near term impact will be to reduce gross margins; as such, while we are maintaining our 4Q23 top line projections, we are lowering our gross margin projections, which results in increased 4Q losses.
• We believe the negative impact will be localized into FY23 and are leaving our FY24 projections unchanged.