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Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, USD, Gold, Ubiquiti Inc., Deckers Outdoor, NortonLifeLock, Zoetis Inc, Mettler-Toledo International I, Cocoa Futures, PetroTal and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: How to Gain $10 in Three Months
  • Global FX: Tariff Risks and US Exceptionalism Support the Dollar
  • Bullion Ballet: Trading the Gold Platinum Ratio
  • UI: Inventory & Free Cash Flow
  • Deckers Brands: Initiation of Coverage – Why Their DTC Strategy Will Blow Your Mind! – Major Drivers
  • Gen Digital Inc: Product Portfolio
  • Zoetis One-Pager
  • Mettler-Toledo Intl Inc (MTD) – Monday, Nov 13, 2023
  • Cocoa Reaches All-Time High – First Time since 1960 // Crack Spreads continue to Diverge
  • PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Replacing >165% of 2P Reserves in 2023


Global Commodities: How to Gain $10 in Three Months

By At Any Rate

  • Observable crude inventories in key regions have steadily drawn down, reaching 40 million barrels below December levels.
  • Global onshore crude inventory is at a record low of 4.4 billion barrels, signaling increased demand.
  • Refinery runs and healthy refinery cracks and margins are drawing down on crude inventories, supported by strong gasoline cracks.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


Global FX: Tariff Risks and US Exceptionalism Support the Dollar

By At Any Rate

  • The increase in news articles mentioning tariff and trade war risks is making it difficult for cyclical currencies like the euro to factor in any potential growth outside of the US.
  • US exceptionalism is evident in strong services ISM and relative equity performance, which is leading to the dollar’s dominance in capital flows.
  • The Chinese yuan is facing bearish sentiment due to double-digit drawdowns in onshore equity indices, deepening deflation, weak sentiment in the housing market, and limited policy options for policymakers. Outbound travel restrictions during the Chinese New Year season also add to the pressure on the currency. However, there have been some positive signs in financial flows, such as stabilization in equity flows and increased bond purchases by foreigners. Overall, the outlook for the yuan remains bearish.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


Bullion Ballet: Trading the Gold Platinum Ratio

By Pranay Yadav

  • Gold platinum ratio (“GPR”) measures the price of gold relative to platinum. it is affected by recessions, monetary policy, and stock market returns.
  • GPR has been rising since 2008, it has outperformed gold and platinum individually since 2006 and other gold spreads (gold-silver, gold-palladium, gold-copper) since 2000. 
  • The outlook for both gold and platinum remains uncertain. A bullish view of the GPR looks more favorable.

UI: Inventory & Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Ubiquiti (UI) reported fiscal second quarter (December) results showing sequential improvement in enterprise revenue while service provider remains a headwind for the business
  • Ubiquiti introduced several products in the December quarter which started to gain customer traction. There could be momentum in the March quarter as customers become familiar with the new products
  • The year over year revenue performance has been challenged with Ubiquiti lapping the initial customer enthusiasm about the Company having product in stock

Deckers Brands: Initiation of Coverage – Why Their DTC Strategy Will Blow Your Mind! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on global footwear and apparel major, Deckers Outdoor.
  • The company saw a strong fiscal third quarter for 2024, but the company did recognize certain risks and uncertainties that could potentially impact future performance.
  • Total company revenue saw an increased 16% to reach $1.56 billion, largely thanks to full-price consumer demand.

Gen Digital Inc: Product Portfolio

By Baptista Research

  • Gen Digital, like all businesses, experienced both ups and downs in its third quarter of 2024.
  • Their fiscal year marked a tremendous opportunity for consumer cybersafety, with Genesis Digital consistently executing towards their goal.
  • They reported cybersafety bookings growing to $1 billion, up by 4%, cybersafety revenue up 3%, and their 18th consecutive quarter of growth.

Zoetis One-Pager

By From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

  • Zoetis is the global leader in the animal health industry. It discovers, develops, manufactures and commercializes medicines, vaccines, diagnostic products and services.
  • Zoetis counts with over 300 product lines, with 15 of them generating over 100M in annual sales.
  • The latter are called blockbusters, and the company holds

Mettler-Toledo Intl Inc (MTD) – Monday, Nov 13, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Mettler-Toledo attracts a wide range of customers, from large corporations to individual researchers, by providing significant value and profitability for the company.
  • The company’s business model is highly resilient, as 80% of its revenue comes from recurring sales of consumables, services, and software, ensuring stable cash flow.
  • Mettler-Toledo has a strong track record of innovation, developing new products and solutions that address customer needs and industry trends, such as automation and digitization. 

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Cocoa Reaches All-Time High – First Time since 1960 // Crack Spreads continue to Diverge

By The Commodity Report

  • Cocoa Reaches All-Time High – First Time since 1960 A long-held commodity price record has fallen: The price of NY cocoa futures has surged to almost $5,400 a ton, surpassing the $5,379 peak in place since 1977 ( roughly 46 years ago).
  • Cocoa was one of the few commodities that hadn’t set a fresh nominal price record in the 2000s.
  • The current rally is fuelled by the El Nino weather phenomenon which is causing drier temperatures in West Africa, where three-quarters of the world’s cocoa is produced – this fundamental weather event has now led to a short squeeze situation in the cocoa futures market.

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Replacing >165% of 2P Reserves in 2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • YE23 1P, 2P and 3P reserves were estimated at 48 mmbbl, 100 mmbbl and 200 mmbbl respectively.
  • This represents an increase of 6%, 4% and 19% respectively compared to YE22.
  • The YE23 1P and 2P reserves estimates imply a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 150% and 167% during 2023.

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Daily Brief United States: Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, Cardinal Health, Westrock Co, Exxon Mobil, Hawaiian Electric Inds, International Paper Co, Weave Communications Inc, Hologic Inc, Bio Techne Corp, Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000
  • Cardinal Health: Expanding Acquisitions Portfolio With Specialty Networks & Other Major Drivers
  • WestRock Company: Strategic Investments for Growth-Oriented Opportunities & Other Major Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation: Solid Shale Operations Growth & Other Factors Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Hawaiian Electric Co (HE1) – Sunday, Nov 12, 2023
  • International Paper Company: Commercial initiatives And Strategic Investments
  • Weave Communicati Inc (WEAV) – Sunday, Nov 12, 2023
  • Hologic Inc: Fortifying Market Position Through Innovation & Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers
  • Bio-Techne Corporation: A Tale Of Resilience Amid Economic Challenges! – Major Drivers
  • Broadridge Financial Solutions: Closed Sales Outlook & Changing Demand Environment – Will They Adapt? – Major Drivers


Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000

By Cam Hui

  • We believe the current AI-driven rally has a long way to run. Market mania tops are characterized by excessive froth, which is not in evidence today.
  • In the short run, price momentum in technology stocks is faltering, and these stocks can pull back at any time.
  • We would regard any pullback in these stocks as a buying opportunity.

Cardinal Health: Expanding Acquisitions Portfolio With Specialty Networks & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cardinal Health has recently announced its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024.
  • CEO Jason Hollar and CFO Aaron Alt expressed satisfaction with the progress the company has made, demonstrating strong profit growth in both segments and expected growth for 7% to 9% in segment profit for fiscal 2024.
  • Cardinal Health’s acquisition of Specialty Networks is seen as a key step in enhancing the company’s specialty growth strategy.

WestRock Company: Strategic Investments for Growth-Oriented Opportunities & Other Major Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Based on the third fiscal quarter 2023 earnings, it becomes clear that WestRock is focused on improving business outcomes and delivering value to shareholders even in a challenging market environment.
  • Net sales for the quarter stood at $5.1 billion, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA at $802 million.
  • The company exceeded its guidance owing to strong execution, productivity gains, and moderating input costs.

Exxon Mobil Corporation: Solid Shale Operations Growth & Other Factors Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Exxon Mobil Corporation concluded its fourth quarter of 2023 with strong results, emphasizing the execution excellence of its business units throughout the year.
  • These results were primarily driven by the company’s commitment to its employees’ operation and safety standards alongside significant strides in project building, technology deployment, supply-chain management, and trading.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Hawaiian Electric Co (HE1) – Sunday, Nov 12, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Hawaiian Electric is facing potential bankruptcy due to fire liabilities and the need for expensive investments to fire-harden their assets.
  • The estimated fire claims exceed the utility’s worth, with total claims including debt exceeding $4.9-7.4 billion.
  • Unless the claims are significantly lower, it is unlikely that there will be any equity value for the utility, and the stock price is expected to be negatively impacted.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


International Paper Company: Commercial initiatives And Strategic Investments

By Baptista Research

  • International Paper Company’s financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2023 was largely influenced by challenging market conditions.
  • Demand for the company’s products was notably lower throughout the bulk of the year.
  • This change in demand was driven by consumers choosing to focus their spending on services and essential goods.

Weave Communicati Inc (WEAV) – Sunday, Nov 12, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Weave Communications is a SaaS business that offers communications software for specific vertical markets like dentists, veterinarians, optometrists, and small medical practices.
  • The company has shown impressive growth at a rate of 20% and is on the precipice of becoming profitable.
  • Weave is currently undervalued, trading at only 2x sales, despite its promising performance and potential for profitability. 

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Hologic Inc: Fortifying Market Position Through Innovation & Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hologic reported its fiscal Q1 2024 results, demonstrating strong financial performance with total revenue reaching $1.01 billion, above the high end of the company’s guidance.
  • In spite of four fewer selling days than in Q1 2023, the firm achieved total organic revenue growth, excluding COVID-19, of 5.2%.
  • When adjusted for the fewer selling days, estimated total company organic revenue growth excluding COVID-19 was in the high single digits.

Bio-Techne Corporation: A Tale Of Resilience Amid Economic Challenges! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bio-Techne, amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions, reported an organic revenue decline of 2% for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024.
  • The healthcare company’s earnings were impacted by various headwinds including a cautious biopharma spending environment, a tougher macroeconomic climate in China, and lowered demand from OEM customers.
  • Bio-Techne’s core portfolio, however, continued to drive the company’s long-term growth potential with a 7% average growth rate over the last decade.

Broadridge Financial Solutions: Closed Sales Outlook & Changing Demand Environment – Will They Adapt? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings call transcript for Broadridge Financial Solutions reveals steady growth and a positive fiscal year outlook.
  • Broadridge achieved impressive Q2 results, with healthy organic growth across both segments aligning with their long-term goals.
  • Strong fund position growth and mid-single-digit equity position growth contributed to their financial performance.

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Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, Johnson Controls, Tesla Motors, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Microchip Technology, Parker Hannifin, Honeywell International, Rockwell Automation, Amazon.com Inc, Tractor Supply Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • EIA Forecasts Crude Oil Prices to Fall in 2025 Due to Weak Demand Growth
  • Johnson Controls International: Initiation Of Coverage – A Strategic Overhaul That Could Be A Game Changer! – Major Drivers
  • Tesla Sold A Whopping One Car in January in South Korea
  • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.: How They’re Sailing Towards Improved Profitability With These Strategies! – Major Drivers
  • Microchip Technology: How Their Latest Innovations Are Set to Dominate the Market! – Major Drivers
  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Increased Global Frontline Performance & Improved Margins Saving The Day? – Major Drivers
  • Honeywell International – Heavy Investment in Aerospace & Other Futuristic Strategies Propelling Them Forward! – Major Drivers
  • Rockwell Automation: Strong End-Market Demand & 5 Other Factors Driving Its Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • Amazon.com Inc: Increased Efforts to Improve Cost Efficiency and Innovation & 5 Other Strategies For 2024! – Financial Forecasts
  • Tractor Supply Company: Strategic Focus On Exclusive Brands Expansion & Other Key Drivers


EIA Forecasts Crude Oil Prices to Fall in 2025 Due to Weak Demand Growth

By Suhas Reddy

  • EIA forecasts oil prices to gain during the first half of 2024 due to the Red Sea conflict and inventory withdrawals.
  • Downward pressure from lukewarm oil demand and oversupply to keep prices low in 2025.
  • US commercial crude oil inventories grew by 1.3% on a weekly basis but are 4% below the five year average for this time of year.

Johnson Controls International: Initiation Of Coverage – A Strategic Overhaul That Could Be A Game Changer! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on diversified technology and multi industrial player, Johnson Controls.
  • The company reported its Q1 2024 earnings recently.
  • The company is facing some momentum after overcoming a considerable cyber disruption early in the quarter.

Tesla Sold A Whopping One Car in January in South Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • Tesla Motors (TSLA US) sold one car in January 2024 in South Korea. In comparison, Tesla sold 1,022 vehicles in December 2023 and 13,885 units in 2023.
  • The key reason for the sharp plunge in vehicle sales in January has been due to the government’s slashing EV subsidies for vehicles with Chinese LFP based batteries.
  • Furthermore, many consumers avoided buying Tesla vehicles in January as they waited for the government’s announcements of new EV subsidies. 

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.: How They’re Sailing Towards Improved Profitability With These Strategies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings of the Royal Caribbean Group exhibited an optimistic financial position for the Q4 and full-year 2023 and the company flourished particularly with the debut of the revolutionary product, Icon of the Seas.
  • By delivering the best vacation experiences, 2023 marked an exceptional year with net yields up by 13.5% compared to 2019 levels, thereby boosting net income by approximately $1 billion.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Microchip Technology: How Their Latest Innovations Are Set to Dominate the Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Microchip Technology, a leading provider of microcontroller and analogue semiconductors, reported its third quarter 2024 financial results which were below expectations as net sales dropped 21.7% sequentially and 18.6% year-over-year due to increased business uncertainty, slowing economic activity, and higher inventory levels among customers.
  • Despite a challenging environment, the company’s non-GAAP gross and operating margins showed some resilience at 63.8% and 41.2% respectively.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Increased Global Frontline Performance & Improved Margins Saving The Day? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • With respect to Parker-Hannifin’s latest earnings, a few distinctive factors paint a broad picture of the company’s current status and future prospects.
  • With record sales of $4.8 billion in Q2, a 3% progression from the previous year, the company has expressed confidence in sustaining incrementals of over 100% and expanding upon the adjusted segment operating margin which stood at a record 24.5%, marking a 3% increase on a year-to-year basis.
  • This strong performance has primarily been driven by their Aerospace Systems, while both Industrial Silos also made valuable contributions.

Honeywell International – Heavy Investment in Aerospace & Other Futuristic Strategies Propelling Them Forward! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The fourth quarter 2023 earnings for Honeywell International took place in a dynamic backdrop; the company delivered on its 2023 commitments despite this.
  • Honeywell’s Accelerator operating system and differentiated technologies allowed it to meet the full year guidance for organic growth, adjusted earnings per share, and free cash flow.
  • As a result of leadership changes, Vimal Kapur, CEO, has been elected to additionally serve as Chairman, starting from June after the current Executive Chairman, Darius Adamczyk, retires.

Rockwell Automation: Strong End-Market Demand & 5 Other Factors Driving Its Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • In the Rockwell Automation results, it’s important to start by appreciating that the company registered first quarter growth, even amidst the challenging economic landscape.
  • Rockwell Automation registered a 3.6% year-over-year increase in total sales led by North America.
  • This performance is attributable partly to the company’s broad business portfolio which has helped spread risk.

Amazon.com Inc: Increased Efforts to Improve Cost Efficiency and Innovation & 5 Other Strategies For 2024! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Amazon.com reported bullish Q4 2023 financial results.
  • Revenue stood at $170 billion, indicating an upsurge of 13% year-over-year, barring the impact of foreign exchange rates.
  • Operating income hiked up to $13.2 billion, showing a YoY growth of 383% or a surge of $10.5 billion.

Tractor Supply Company: Strategic Focus On Exclusive Brands Expansion & Other Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tractor Supply Company concluded its fiscal year of 2023 with solid results and several significant milestones, even though the year was marked by many challenges.
  • Situated against a challenging backdrop of unfavorable weather, rising interest rates, and inflation impacting consumer spending habits, Tractor Supply Company extracted cause for optimism from developments and improvements in various areas of operations.
  • The company’s robust, needs-based business model has withstood various economic conditions since its inception in 1938.

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Daily Brief United States: New York Community Bank, NET Lease Office Properties and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • NY Community Bancorp’s Problems in the Rent-Stabilized Market
  • NLOP: A Contrarian Deep Value Asset Story


NY Community Bancorp’s Problems in the Rent-Stabilized Market

By Odd Lots

  • New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) saw its shares plunge nearly 40% after missing on earnings per share, cutting dividends, and increasing reserves for bad loans. The bank specifically cited issues with commercial real estate and multifamily loans.
  • There is a debate over whether NYCB’s troubles are idiosyncratic or indicative of broader issues in the banking sector. Similar debates have occurred with other troubled banks in recent years.
  • The real estate market, particularly in multifamily housing, has been a topic of concern. A previous episode of the podcast featured a New York landlord who stated that the golden age of being a landlord was over and talked about potential downsides in the market. Additionally, factors such as rising interest rates and affordability crises in New York City contribute to the challenges in the market.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


NLOP: A Contrarian Deep Value Asset Story

By Hamed Khorsand

  • We are initiating coverage of Net Lease Office Products (NLOP) with a Buy Rating and $60 target.
  • NLOP is trading at a fraction of its book value as the Company gets lumped into the negative investor sentiment towards office buildings.
  • NLOP was created and spun out of W. P. Carey (WPC) to oversee the liquidation of 59 office properties.

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Daily Brief United States: Apple , Teradyne Inc, The Walt Disney Co, Super Micro Computer, Whirlpool Corp, Spirit Airlines, Starbucks Corp, Qualcomm Inc, Microsoft Corp, Bitcoin and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • The Reality of Mixed Reality
  • Teradyne Inc.: Diversification into AI and Robotics Could Catalyze Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Disney Q1 Earnings: Finally Ready to Take Share from Netflix
  • Super Micro Computer: Initiation of Coverage – Unlocking the Power of AI with Green Computing – Why Investors Can’t Afford to Miss Out! – Major Drivers
  • Whirlpool Corporation: Improving Prospects In North America & Cost Reduction Efforts Saving The Day? – Major Drivers
  • Spirit Airlines – Summer 2024 a Critical Test of Organic Recovery Prospects
  • Starbucks Corporation: Substantial Growth Through New Store Openings & Innovation! – Major Drivers
  • Qualcomm Incorporated: Heavy Investments in On-Device AI and IoT And 5 Major Drivers
  • Microsoft Corporation: AI Infrastructure Investments & Growing Cloud Demand Are Indicators Of A Bright Future – Major Drivers
  • Crypto Moves #14 – It’s Not About What’s There, But What Isn’t


The Reality of Mixed Reality

By Investment Talk

  • The world does not need another opinion on the Vision Pro, the Apple mixed reality device whose launch coincided with Meta earnings, but I will share mine so I can understand my thought process in the future.
  • I have the right to be wrong. The revenue share of Meta’s FRL is so small it might seem redundant to give it so much limelight.
  • But, directionally, it’s an important category for the company. With a launch of this scale, the hyperbole and sensationalism rhyme with things we’ve seen in decades past.

Teradyne Inc.: Diversification into AI and Robotics Could Catalyze Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the fourth quarter of 2023, Teradyne, a provider of computer-controlled configurations, and collaborative robots, reported financial results in line with its guidance.
  • The company highlighted strong performance in the Memory Test sector, which saw the double year-over-year revenue from DRAM testers due to HBM demand, and in the Industrial Automation marketplace.
  • Additionally, Teradyne experienced robust growth sequentially in sales from its Robotics team, as it elevated shipments to meet the record backlog of its UR20 Cobot at Universal Robots.

Disney Q1 Earnings: Finally Ready to Take Share from Netflix

By Value Investing

  • Imagine a racetrack with 10 horses. The first two horses (NFLX and DIS) are peeling away from everyone else; with NFLX still having a sizeable lead over DIS.
  • But the stage is set for DIS to start accelerating faster than NFLX.
  • This is how I would describe the US Media sector today, and Disney’s Q1 results released yesterday only serves to bolster that narrative.

Super Micro Computer: Initiation of Coverage – Unlocking the Power of AI with Green Computing – Why Investors Can’t Afford to Miss Out! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on one of the fastest growing high-performance server and storage solutions providers, Super Micro Computer Inc.
  • The company reported a record-breaking fiscal second quarter performance for 2024, with a revenue of $3.66 billion and an earnings per share of $5.59, marking a 103% increase from last year.
  • This is the first time the company has crossed the $3 billion mark in quarterly revenue, which surpassed even the total annual revenue collected in 2021.

Whirlpool Corporation: Improving Prospects In North America & Cost Reduction Efforts Saving The Day? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Whirlpool Corporation released its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings and reported progressive achievements, including gaining over 1% market share in North America, reducing its net costs by $800M, and signing significant transactions with Arçelik.
  • However, the Whirlpool Corporation did acknowledge areas where it didn’t meet expectations, specifically citing increased promotional pressure which negatively impacted EBIT margins, and a failure to reduce inventories quickly, weighing on the full cash flow.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Spirit Airlines – Summer 2024 a Critical Test of Organic Recovery Prospects

By Neil Glynn

  • Spirit Airlines finished 2023 as expected and highlights improving pricing momentum in early 2024 which should drive some margin recovery.
  • However, we still expect EBITDAR/ASM to finish 2024 down 72% on 2019, with a maximum 50% deficit required to avoid escalating debt. This drives a focus on Chapter 11 risk.
  • Management is adamant liquidity is sufficient to allow it to recover but significant margin gains, led by pricing expansion despite aggressive growth plans, are required for financial sustainability.

Starbucks Corporation: Substantial Growth Through New Store Openings & Innovation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Starbucks Corporation on its First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 earnings call provided a detailed account of the firm’s financial performance and future projections, endorsing its growth strategy despite short-term challenges.
  • Positively, the company managed to increase its Q1 total company revenue by 8% year-over-year to a record $9.4 billion.
  • Further, the firm’s global comparable store sales witnessed a growth of 5% year-over-year, backed by a 5% comp growth in North America and a 10% comp growth in China.

Qualcomm Incorporated: Heavy Investments in On-Device AI and IoT And 5 Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Qualcomm has reported its Q1 fiscal year 2024 results, highlighting robust revenue growth across various business segments.
  • In the first fiscal quarter, non-GAAP revenues reached $9.9 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.75 which is above the high end of the company’s guidance.
  • Healthy Android demand coupled with momentum in automotive drove revenues of $8.4 billion from the chipset business, while the licensing business posted revenues of $1.5 billion.

Microsoft Corporation: AI Infrastructure Investments & Growing Cloud Demand Are Indicators Of A Bright Future – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Microsoft Corporation reported strong financial performance for its second quarter fiscal year 2024.
  • The company attributed this success primarily to the continued growth of its Microsoft Cloud segment, which surpassed $33 billion in revenue, marking a 24% increase.
  • Microsoft Cloud’s success largely stemmed from the efficient application of Artificial Intelligence across different sectors.

Crypto Moves #14 – It’s Not About What’s There, But What Isn’t

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last week, we stuck to our bullish market perspective, and it turned out to be a wise choice.
  • Yesterday’s celebration of our spot-on prediction resulted in today’s hangover of mine.
  • Interestingly, in Denmark, there is a custom of referring to Thursday as ‘little Friday’ when we go out drinking on those days.

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Daily Brief United States: The Walt Disney Co, Soybean Active Contract, BV Financial Inc, KLA-Tencor Corp, American International Group, New York Community Bank, Southwest Airlines Co, Intel Corp, L3Harris Technologies , Frontier Group Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Part 1
  • [Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean
  • Bv Financial Inc (BVFL) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • KLA Corporation: Leading Edge Investments and Memory Conversions & Other Major Drivers
  • American Airlines: Corporate Recovery and Shift to Internet-based Channels! – Major Drivers
  • US Banking Groundhog Day?
  • Southwest Airlines: Recovering Demand and Network Optimization! – Major Drivers
  • Intel Corporation: Solid Advances in AI and the Cloud & Other Major Drivers
  • L3Harris Corporation: Accelerating Demand in Aerojet Rocketdyne As A Major Growth Catalyst!
  • Frontier Airlines – 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets


The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Part 1

By Value Punks

  • Not so long ago, Disney’s share price was nearing the $200 mark, despite the pandemic’s severe impact on its Parks and Resorts business.
  • Fast forward to the present, and even with the parks posting record results, Disney’s share price has fallen to levels not seen in a decade, raising the question: what happened?
  • Several factors are at play, including challenges within the studio arm, ongoing decline of its legacy media operations, and Big Tech’s incursion into sports media.

[Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean

By Pranay Yadav

  • Depressed Soybean crush margin to deal a further blow to Soybean demand.
  • The outlook for Soy Meal and Soy Oil is better than the outlook for Soybean.
  • Important production guidance updates from CONAB and USDA this week. Expectations point to lower production and lower consumption. 

Bv Financial Inc (BVFL) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • BV Financial recently completed its conversion from a mutual holding company to a full-converted stock company.
  • The bank has consistently achieved a return on equity of 10-11% in recent years.
  • Despite its significant growth, BV Financial’s securities represent only 5% of its total assets of $933 million.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


KLA Corporation: Leading Edge Investments and Memory Conversions & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • KLA Corporation saw a revenue of nearly $9.7 billion in 2023, marking a decrease of 8% compared to the previous year.
  • Despite less leading-edge investment in both logic and memory, legacy node customers and the semiconductor infrastructure assisted in exceeding the initially projected revenue.
  • Business segments such as automotive, specialty semiconductor process equipment, and infrastructure for wafer and mass manufactures experienced growth in 2023.

American Airlines: Corporate Recovery and Shift to Internet-based Channels! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The American Airlines Group reported adjusted pretax profit of $257 million for the fourth quarter and approximately $2.5 billion for the full year 2023.
  • This result was driven by the strength of the network, demand for products, and execution by the team.
  • Positive indications from the group include historically strong operation with the production of record free cash flow and a strengthened balance sheet through debt reduction.

US Banking Groundhog Day?

By Fallacy Alarm

  • March 2023 was a noteworthy month for US stock market investors. It was one of only two significant corrections in an otherwise stellar year.
  • The other one was in October driven by an interest rate scare.
  • Usually a cocktail of several reasons is needed to create a correction. These typically involve technical, seasonal and fundamental/macro factors.

Southwest Airlines: Recovering Demand and Network Optimization! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Southwest Airlines Co.’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings underscored some significant strides the company has taken over the past year, balanced by the ongoing challenges that the airline industry continues to face.
  • In terms of the positive highlights, CEO Bob Jordan commended the company for its impressive resilience, noting that they had successfully implemented a comprehensive winter weather action plan, fully staffed their operation, and restored their network following a disruptive winter storm in 2022.
  • Furthermore, the company saw improvement in almost every operational metric, maintained a 99% completion factor across the year, and secured nine labor agreements in a year.

Intel Corporation: Solid Advances in AI and the Cloud & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the fourth quarter of 2023, Intel managed to display consistent progress towards its Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM) 2.0 transformation.
  • This implied effective execution of its strategy to reestablish process leadership and fostering product execution.
  • Revenue exceeded expectations for the fourth consecutive quarter due to the company’s focus on driving operating leverage and managing expenses, thereby meeting the cost savings commitment for fiscal year 2023.

L3Harris Corporation: Accelerating Demand in Aerojet Rocketdyne As A Major Growth Catalyst!

By Baptista Research

  • Through the fourth quarter 2023, earnings call at L3Harris Technologies showed healthy financial results accompanied by strong performance in its various portfolios.
  • The company reported a significant $23 billion in orders, marking a record increase, and a doubling of its backlog to $33 billion since the merger.
  • This growth trajectory was propelled by key U.S. Army awards and notable progress in satellite awards.

Frontier Airlines – 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

By Neil Glynn

  • Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.
  • Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.
  • We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to >$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC’s ability to thrive with higher costs.

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Daily Brief United States: Dollar Index, Vitesse Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?
  • Vitesse Energy, Inc. – Estimate Update


Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

By Joe Jasper

  • More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
  • Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
  • 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).

Vitesse Energy, Inc. – Estimate Update

By Water Tower Research

  • We are updating our 4Q23 and FY24 estimates to reflect actual 4Q23 reference prices and lower estimated FY24 natural gas prices.
  • Our 4Q23 NYMEX reference prices averaged $78.32/bbl for oil and $2.92/MMBtu for natural gas compared with our $85.00 and $3.00/MMBtu estimates.
  • We have lowered our average FY24 natural gas price estimate to $2.66/MMBtu from $3.44/MMBtu. We are currently modeling average FY24 oil prices of $80/bbl.

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Daily Brief United States: Microsoft Corp, Haynes International, Servicenow Inc, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amphenol Corp Cl A, Freeport Mcmoran, International Business Machines, Lam Research, Advanced Emissions Solutions I, Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Microsoft Q2 Earnings Review
  • Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys
  • ServiceNow Inc: The Increasing Scope Of Its Gen AI technology And Other Major Drivers
  • Meta Platforms: Model Update
  • Amphenol Corporation: AI Advancements & Capacity Management As A Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers
  • Freeport-McMoran Inc: Efficiencies From Automation & Advanced Technologies As A Game Changer! – Major Drivers
  • IBM Corporation: Is The Infrastructure Revenue Decline A Cause For Concern? – Major Drivers
  • Lam Research Corporation: Navigating Industry Inflections With Superior Tools & Customer-Centric Solutions! – Major Drivers
  • Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • Gold Demand Data Confirms Economic Rebound // Latest CTA Positioning Calls from UBS


Microsoft Q2 Earnings Review

By From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

  • Microsoft reported results on January 30th. The company generated revenue in excess of 62bn dollars during the fourth quarter of 2023, increasing 17% on a yearly basis and exhibiting a 4yr CAGR of 13.8%.
  • It’s worth highlighting that Activision contributed to 4pp of revenue growth.
  • During July, a court filing was leaked, which illustrated management’s self-stated ambition for the next decade.

Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 5 February, Acerinox SA (ACX SM) announced a friendly $61/share all-cash offer to acquire Haynes International (HAYN US), implied equity value $798 million, implied EV $970 million and 8.7% premium.
  • The offer represents 1.5x EV/24e Sales, 10.1x EV/24e EBITDA (5.8x including run-rate estimated synergies of c.$71 million, seemingly quite large). The acquisition amounts to approximately 33% of Acerinox’s market cap.
  • Acerinox is paying higher multiples than those at which Acerinox itself is trading. The deal should close. The shares of Haynes are already up 2.7% pre-market after Q1 results. Long.

ServiceNow Inc: The Increasing Scope Of Its Gen AI technology And Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ServiceNow’s Q4 2023 earnings present a compelling story of growth powered by artificial intelligence (AI).
  • The company reported subscription revenue growth of 25.5% at constant currency, 200 basis points above its guidance and cRPO growth of 23% at constant currency, also 200 basis points above its guidance.
  • In addition, the company reported 168 deals greater than $1 million in net new ACV, a 33% increase from the previous year.

Meta Platforms: Model Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.
  • I will start with Meta today and will share my thoughts on Amazon tomorrow.
  • You can find the updated model on Meta here which I encourage you to download to play around with your own narrative as you see fit.

Amphenol Corporation: AI Advancements & Capacity Management As A Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Amphenol Corporation announced its fourth quarter and full year results for 2023 with the company closing the quarter with sales of $3,327 million and record adjusted diluted EPS of $0.82.
  • The company’s sales were up 3% in U.S. dollars for Q4, 4% sequentially, but down 1% organically compared to Q4 2022.
  • In contrast, the full year saw a drop with sales of $12,555 million, which was a decline of 50 basis points in U.S. dollars and a 3% organic decrease compared to 2022.

Freeport-McMoran Inc: Efficiencies From Automation & Advanced Technologies As A Game Changer! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In FY 2023, Freeport-McMoRan reported solid operating results across its operations.
  • A key highlight was its robust performance in Indonesia, where production levels improved for the fourth consecutive year and several new operating records were set.
  • The company also reached several milestones, including achieving a target run rate for their leach production in the Americas and making significant progress on the Indonesian smelter project.

IBM Corporation: Is The Infrastructure Revenue Decline A Cause For Concern? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings of IBM revealed solid growth across all businesses for the last quarter of 2023, with a revenue growth of 3% and over $11 billion of free cash flow.
  • The achievements and progress noted by IBM’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Arvind Krishna, corroborate the company’s commitment towards strengthening its diversified business model.
  • Key drivers of IBM’s success during the year 2023 were enhancements in its software portfolio and the bolstering of its consulting position.

Lam Research Corporation: Navigating Industry Inflections With Superior Tools & Customer-Centric Solutions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the recent earnings, Lam Research Corporation demonstrated strong performance in the December quarter of 2023.
  • Financial highlights include higher revenues, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS above guided ranges.
  • Although overall wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending declined, the company almost doubled its EPS compared to the cycle trough in 2019.

Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • The EPA will be implementing regulations to reduce levels of PFAS chemicals in municipalities, due to the health risks associated with them.
  • Major retailers like Amazon, Lowe’s, and McDonald’s are adopting policies to eliminate and prohibit the use of PFAS chemicals in their products.
  • 3M, a major supplier of PFAS, agreed to a $10 billion settlement in June 2023.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Gold Demand Data Confirms Economic Rebound // Latest CTA Positioning Calls from UBS

By The Commodity Report

  • Last week the World Gold Council published its figures for the fourth quarter of 2023.

  • Gold demand for technology, electronics and other industrial use cases continued to improve in nominal and YoY terms – pointing to an economic rebound.

  • “Technology demand proved another surprising element in 2023, churning out stellar growth in Q4, albeit from a low base.


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Daily Brief United States: Hollysys Automation Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 Feb) – Hollysys, JSR, Benesse, Benefit One, Glosel, OreCorp, QV Equities


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Daily Brief United States: Netflix Inc, Alphabet , Lockheed Martin, Intuitive Surgical, Paccar Inc, Procter & Gamble Co, Raytheon Technologies , Texas Instruments, 3M Co, Verizon Communications and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Netflix Inc: Will Its Foray Into Live Entertainment Result In Phenomenal Subscriber Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Alphabet Inc.: Is It Losing The AI Race? Or Can It Still Catch Up? – What Investors Need to Know! – Major Drivers
  • Lockheed Martin: How Bad Is The Impact of Delays in Government Budget? – Major Drivers
  • Intuitive Surgical: Are They Capitalizing Enough On The Expanded Adoption Of Robotic Surgery? – Major Drivers
  • PACCAR Inc: Can The Newly Refreshed Product Lineup Change The Game? – Major Drivers
  • Procter & Gamble – Continued Growth Potential In China Boosting The Top-Line? – Major Drivers
  • RTX Corporation: Can Their Investments In Differentiated Technologies Further Build Their Competitive Moat? – Major Drivers
  • Texas Instruments: A Tale of Strong Cash Generation and Capital Management! – Major Drivers
  • 3M Company: How Geographic Shifts and Portfolio Magic Could Boost Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Verizon Communications – Increasing Contribution from Fixed Wireless Access & Other Major Drivers


Netflix Inc: Will Its Foray Into Live Entertainment Result In Phenomenal Subscriber Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Netflix, in their recent Q4 2023 earnings call, highlighted key developments that signal both progress and future challenges for the company.
  • The firm elaborated on its partnership with WWE, where Netflix airs live WWE events.
  • As per co-CEO Theodore Sarandos, fans of WWE have lauded this move, many of whom Netflix assumes were underserved previously.

Alphabet Inc.: Is It Losing The AI Race? Or Can It Still Catch Up? – What Investors Need to Know! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alphabet Inc.’s fourth quarter results for 2023 reflect signs of solid growth and sustained technological innovation as the company maintains a strong trajectory for 2023.
  • An investor would focus on Alphabet’s robust earnings performance, demonstrated by substantial revenues of $307 billion, an increase of 9% from 2022.
  • Take the case of Alphabet’s primary business.

Lockheed Martin: How Bad Is The Impact of Delays in Government Budget? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lockheed Martin Corporation held its fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call for 2023, outlining its performance, financial results, and future expectations.
  • The company emphasized strong performance in 2023, driven by considerable demand for its aircraft, helicopters, satellites, radar systems, and other products and services.
  • Lockheed Martin reported a record backlog of $161 billion, with sales for the full year of $67.6 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on year growth.

Intuitive Surgical: Are They Capitalizing Enough On The Expanded Adoption Of Robotic Surgery? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Surgical enjoyed a strong 2023, seeing increasing use of its platforms in hospitals and improvement in system capacity to manage growth.
  • Full year growth for procedures was 22%, led by general surgery in the US and diverse growth in international markets such as Germany, France, the UK, and Ireland.
  • However, there was a slowdown in growth across bariatric procedures due to the use of GLP-1 drugs for obesity.

PACCAR Inc: Can The Newly Refreshed Product Lineup Change The Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PACCAR, a leading American truck manufacturing company, showcased impressive performance in their fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call.
  • The company reported record annual revenues of $35.1 billion and a net income of $4.6 billion, marking an impressive after-tax return on revenue of 13.1%.
  • This positive trend was primarily driven by record deliveries of the company’s DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, strong results in its parts division and consistent financial services performance.

Procter & Gamble – Continued Growth Potential In China Boosting The Top-Line? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Based on the information shared during the recent earnings, Procter & Gamble has demonstrated solid performance, accomplishing significant organic sales growth and market share results despite a challenging operating environment.
  • A diverse portfolio, combined with strong steps in innovation and sustainability, positions the company for continued success.
  • Notably, Procter & Gamble reported a strong quarter with 4% growth in organic sales and a 16% increase in core earnings per share.

RTX Corporation: Can Their Investments In Differentiated Technologies Further Build Their Competitive Moat? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • RTX Corporation held its Q4 2023 earnings conference call with senior executives such as Chairman and CEO Greg Hayes, incoming CEO Chris Calio and Chief Financial Officer Neil Mitchill.
  • The call highlighted a leadership change with the transition of current CEO, Greg Hayes, to Executive Chairman, and Chris Calio assuming the role of CEO.
  • The company reported strong full-year results with $74.3 billion in adjusted sales, a growth of 11% organically, and adjusted EPS of $5.06, a growth of 6% year-over-year.

Texas Instruments: A Tale of Strong Cash Generation and Capital Management! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Texas Instruments, an American multinational company, has shared their Q4 2023 earnings release.
  • The financial results indicated a downturn in revenue, decreased by 10% sequentially and 13% year-on-year to $4.1 billion.
  • This decrease was largely due to declining sales in the Analog segment (12% YoY), the Embedded Processing segment (10% YoY), and the Other segment (25% YoY).

3M Company: How Geographic Shifts and Portfolio Magic Could Boost Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • 3M has shown solid operational improvements in its fourth-quarter results, which could translate into an exciting year ahead for the company, despite the ongoing pandemic-related challenges.
  • The company reported strong adjusted EPS growth of 11% and operating margin expansion of 180 basis points, with significant contributions from its restructuring program aimed at streamlining operations, reducing costs and improving productivity.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Verizon Communications – Increasing Contribution from Fixed Wireless Access & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verizon released its most recent results which were fairly good though we can develop a more balanced investment thesis for this telecommunications giant consists of highlighting several positives and negatives from the results of the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • Of the uplifting notes, Verizon saw a 3.2% YoY growth in wireless service revenue, hitting $76.7 billion in 2023.
  • The fourth quarter saw a strong finish with significant increases in customers embracing the offerings.

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