United States

• A review of the structure of the stock market makes us long-term bullish.
• Growth stocks, as proxied by the NASDAQ 100, are weakening but a rotating correction is evident as value stocks are taking up the leadership mantle.
• That said, the S&P 500 is short-term extended and can pull back at any time, with initial support at about 5000 and strong secondary support at about 4800.

• Crypto mining requires high capital investment, faces volatile bitcoin prices, and will experience upcoming revenue cuts due to the halving on April 16th
• Experts believe the risks outweigh the potential for short-term success in crypto mining, making it unlikely to generate significant free cash flow in the long term
• Examples like MARA, which saw a significant increase in revenue at a small fraction of its market value, showcase the precarious nature of the industry

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• Despite struggles in the biotech sector, there are opportunities for value investors in undervalued companies like IO Biotech (IOBT)
• IOBT is trading at a deep discount to net cash and is fully funded through 2025, making it an attractive investment option
• Previous recommendation from a well-regarded investor highlights the potential for success in IOBT’s ongoing Phase 3 trials, with a potential upcoming catalyst for significant upside

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• ModivCare (MODV US) issued 2024 revenue guidance, which fell short of consensus. The company anticipates 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be $190–210M, down 2% YoY at mid-point.
• NEMT segment is witnessing decelerating quarterly revenue growth and lower margins. Gross profit per trip of NEMT segment is expected to decline 25% YoY and QoQ to $5.69 in 1Q24.
• Modivcare will see improvement in financial performance no sooner than 2H24. Shares plunged 44% YTD. No recovery is expected in near-term.

• Last Wednesday, on March 13th, Ethereum launched its biggest upgrade in the past 18 months, marking a significant milestone since the Ethereum Merge on September 15, 2022.
• Dubbed Dencun or Cancun-Deneb, this upgrade introduced the eagerly awaited Proto-Danksharding feature, aimed at dramatically enhancing the scalability of Ethereum’s Layer 2, also known as rollups, and slashing the costs associated with rollup transactions, while making them less volatile.
• Proto-Danksharding brought to the table so-called ‘blobs’.

• Tesla Inc. will increase the price of its popular Model Y crossover by 5,000 yuan ($694) in China, a move that offers rivals a temporary reprieve as a raging price war engulfs the world’s largest auto market.
• The price rise on China-made Model Y vehicles will start on April 1, Tesla confirmed with Caixin Wednesday. Meanwhile, some of the extras offered by Tesla to its Chinese customers, including an 8,000-yuan insurance subsidy, will expire on March 31.
• Tesla previously announced a price increase of $1,000 for the Model Y in the United States and 2,000 euros ($2,542) in Europe.

• Adobe Inc.
• delivered robust financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, with a revenue of $5.18 billion.
• This represents a 12% year-over-year growth, demonstrating the significant role of Adobe products in powering the global digital economy.

• The second quarter of fiscal year 2024 saw Jabil Inc.
• achieve approximately $6.8 billion in revenue.
• This performance was in line with the guidance for the majority of the company’s businesses.

• Dentsply International (XRAY US) guided for 2024 revenue of $3.96–4.02B, flat to up 1.5% on an organic basis and 12% growth in 2024 EPS at midpoint.
• The macro environment continues to be challenging. The company anticipates the ongoing softness in imaging will continue in 2024. Cost savings will support the bottom-line growth.
• In terms of every valuation metrics, Dentsply is overpriced compared to its U.S.-listed peers. Strong balance sheet, accelerating dividend, and buyback do not justify the pricey valuation.

• Intel snags $8.5 billion in direct funding through the CHIPS and Science Act to advance its commercial semiconductor projects in Arizona, New Mexico, Ohio and Oregon.
• Investment Tax Credit (ITC) of up to 25% on > $100 billion in qualified investments and eligibility for federal loans up to $11 billion are also on offer
• Meanwhile, two separate reports suggest delays of up to two years in Ohio and suppliers in Arizona unable/unwilling to meet previous commitments to establish local supply chains. Ouch!

• In the Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2024 Results, PagerDuty demonstrated solid growth, indicating the company’s steady progression in the market.
• The full-year revenue grew 16% year over-year, and non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 13%.
• Similarly, in the fourth quarter, revenue grew 10% to $111 million, exceeding the high end of the company’s guidance range.

• BLD offers comprehensive services for roofing, including material selection, expert installation, and post-installation service.
• They are known for their focus on high-quality materials, professional installation, and exceptional customer service.
• BLD has established itself as a leader in the industry, serving both residential and commercial markets with a commitment to meeting the evolving needs of the construction industry.

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• ESPR pharmaceutical company has two commercialized drugs and could potentially double in value with a $300 million milestone payout
• Ongoing litigation with DSE due to failure to meet payment obligations under a milestone agreement
• ESPR entitled to a Regulatory Milestone Payment pending regulatory approval for a licensed product in DSE territory, making it a strong investment opportunity with potential for high returns

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• Dollar Tree, Inc., in their latest quarterly earnings, reported continued progress in their organizational transformation towards establishing a foundation for sustainable growth.
• The company experienced growth across the retail metrics of sales per square foot, transactions, and units sold, indicating an overall positive momentum in the business.
• It reported an increase of 12% in consolidated net sales to $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, including a $560 million benefit from the year’s 53rd week.

• Q224 revenues of $5.8 billion, up 23% QoQ and up 58% YoY. It also well above the high end of the guided range of $5.5 billion.
• Net income turned positive & amounted to $476 million. This compares to a loss of $1 billion in Q124
• Forecasting current quarter revenues of $6.6 billion & gross margin of 26.5% at their respective midpoints

• PepsiCo is a global company with significant presence in both snacks and beverages, generating around $80 billion in revenue
• Despite the impact of COVID-19 on its business, PepsiCo has maintained strong performance
• The company’s Beverages North America segment contributes a third of sales but only 22% of EBIT, while Frito Lay North America accounts for 25% of sales but 50% of EBIT

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• FY23 production of 14,248 bbl/d had been reported previously and the YE23 cash position of US$105 mm (including ~US$15 mm of restricted cash) is very close to previous indications.
• PetroTal is re-iterating its FY24 production guidance of ~17 mbbl/d with US$134 mm capex.
• Production currently trends ahead of guidance with 24,453 bbl/d in January and 17,411 bbl/d in February.

• After the close Wednesday, Steelcase reported 4QFY24 non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.23, ahead of our $0.22 estimate and consensus of $0.21.
• 4QFY24 global revenue was $775 million, modestly missing our estimate by ~$9 million.
• FY24 non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $0.93, up from $0.56 in FY23, and revenue was $3.16 billion, down 2.6%.

• WK Kellogg is a consumer staple company with low risk and attractive valuation
• Recent spin-off has unlocked self-help opportunities for potential upside for patient shareholders
• Projections show EBITDA margin growth, significant upside in sales growth and free cash flow, with focus on cereal brands and achieving mid-teens EBITDA margins by end of 2026, projected 100-250% total upside over three years.

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• BlackLine is a company that sells accounting software and Director Mika Yamamoto sold 35% of her holdings in November 2023 at $54/share.
• The sale was below previous highs, raising questions about the company’s prospects in the accounting software market.
• BlackLine’s niche position in bridging the gap between internal systems and third-party software streamlines manual processes for controllers, and Yamamoto’s insider behavior adds an interesting component to the company’s outlook.

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• Xponential Fitness has shown strong financial performance post IPO, with adjusted EBITDA increasing significantly
• The company faced a coordinated short attack leading to a major drop in share price in 2023
• Shares are currently undervalued with strong growth potential and valuable assets, making it an attractive investment opportunity

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• We are reiterating our Buy rating on GES, raising our price target to $37 (from $32.50) and rolling out FY26 projections after Guess?
• ended FY24 with a strong 4Q which easily beat both top and bottom line Street expectations and announced a $2.25 per share special dividend.
• Further, initial FY25 projections, which incorporate the acquisition of Rag & Bone, handily beat Street top line projections and bracket bottom line expectations, even as Guess?

• Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.
• 10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.
• AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. 

• Reddit (RDDT US) is looking to raise up to US$750m in its US IPO.
• Reddit is an online social media platform where users are able to join communities, engage in conversations, research, exchange goods and services as well as create new communities.
• In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we share our quick thoughts on valuation.

• Micron Technology reported very positive revenues this quarter and a return to profitability
• A large part of this stems from the impact that HBM demand is constraining production of standard DDR5 DRAM, driving it into a shortage
• This is good news for Micron and its DRAM competitors Samsung and SK hynix

• Sunpower is facing a severe liquidity problem and may need to raise $100-300 million before January to avoid bankruptcy
• The company operates as a wholesaler of residential retail solar panel systems, providing equipment to third-party developers or selling directly to residential customers
• Trade credit tightening terms and potential customer hesitation due to financial instability are contributing to Sunpower’s uncertain future

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Boku’s strategy to widen its offering within the local payment method (LPM) market accelerated FY23 revenue growth to 30%, with 15% growth from the core direct carrier billing (DCB) business and supplemented by 153% growth from eWallets and real-time payments. EBITDA grew 27% y o y as the company continued to invest in building out its LPM network from a technological and regulatory perspective. With all major merchants using or planning to use Boku’s wider portfolio of payment methods, the company should benefit from faster growth in the non-card payment market and be able to leverage the investment it has made in its mobile-first platform to drive growth in earnings and cash generation.

• Debt buyers like ECPG can accelerate growth during times of increased charge offs by credit card issuers
• Growth is impacted by tough collections environment with an abundance of cheap charged off paper
• Investors must consider buying these stocks when growth prospects are high and expectations have factored in collection challenges, as industry may soon enter a favorable cycle for debt buyers

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• This is our first report on Tempur Sealy International Inc., a global bedding company.
• The company released its Q4 2023 earnings recently.
• The company emphasized its strong business model, highlighting significant cash flow and a robust balance sheet.

• Reddit (RDDT US) is looking to raise up to US$750m in its US IPO. 
• Reddit is an online social media platform where users are able to join communities, engage in conversations, research, exchange goods and services as well as create new communities.  
• In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

• We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
• This still hasn’t happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
• If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys

• EDR is likely to be acquired at a premium price in the near future, offering an attractive risk-reward opportunity for investors.
• Key assets like a stake in TKO, talent representation business (WME), and events business (EE&R) are considered valuable to potential buyers.
• EDR announced a review of strategic alternatives on 10/25/23, with CEO Ariel Emanuel noting the need to maximize value for shareholders due to a disconnection between stock price and asset value.

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• This is our first report on American Express Global Business Travel (GBT).
• The company recently released Q4 2023 earnings.
• On a positive note, the company delivered impressive financial results, with standout numbers including 24% year-over-year revenue growth and a roughly fourfold increase in adjusted EBITDA. Paul Abbott, CEO, attributed this strong performance to share gains and a focus on margin expansion.

• This is our first report on GoodRx Holdings Inc.
• The company announced its fourth-quarter earnings and highlighted significant progress which included saving consumers approximately $15 billion last year, increasing their access to affordable medications while expanding their relationships with retail partners through hybrid retail direct and Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) contracting and cost savings initiatives.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• AutoZone’s Q2 2024 earnings were decent and the company reported an increase in total sales by 4.6%, and same-store sales by 1.5% on a constant currency basis.
• The management is banking on strong international growth prospects for the short and long terms and has plans to accelerate new store openings over the coming years.
• Operating profit and earnings per share grew by double-digit rates, a continuation of the strong performance seen in recent years.

• Synopsys (SNPS) is recommended as a good long-term holding
• Software Integrity business likely to be divested to improve overall profitability
• EDA and IP divisions of the company have been performing well with adjusted operating margins of over 30%

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• This is our first report on Vail Resorts.
• The company’ fiscal 2024 second quarter results, presented during their recent earnings call, reflect a business model demonstrating resilience despite unfavorable conditions across its North American resorts.
• There was approximately 42% lower snowfall across their Western North American resorts compared to the same period in the previous year.

• This is our first report on BJ’s Wholesale Club.
• In the fourth quarter of 2023, BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings delivered strong results underpinned by the growth in membership, traffic, and market share.
• The company achieved comparable club sales growth (excluding gas sales) of 0.5% for the quarter, bringing the full-year figure to 1.7%.

• This is our first report on cosmetics player, e.l.f Beauty.
• The company’s third quarter 2022 earnings call ended with the company experiencing significant growth across the board.
• CEO, Tarang Amin highlighted that net sales increased by 85%, gross margin by nearly 350 basis points and adjusted EBITDA by 61%, compared to the previous year.

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.
• In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELETEs.

• This is our first report on ed-tech major, Coursera.
• The company had a successful fourth quarter, marking a strong close to the year.
• The company welcomed 24 million new learners in this period, bringing their base to more than 140 million and seeing an increase in annual revenue of 21% over the previous year.

• This is our first report on AI software platform company, C3 AI. The company has demonstrated positive performance in their third-quarter fiscal 2024 results with a total revenue of $78.4 million, marking an 18% YoY growth and surpassing their guidance range.
• The total number of customer engagements has also seen an increase of 80% compared to the previous year.
• The company reported a non-GAAP gross profit of $54.7 million with a gross margin standing at 70%.

• Recently, we have voiced our concerns about the excessive use of leverage in the crypto market.
• Just last week, traders were facing annual rates of up to 150% to maintain long positions in Bitcoin on the perpetual market.
• By the end of the week, it became evident that this approach was unsustainable, leading to a significant market correction and extensive liquidations in the futures market.

• Gold and Bitcoin prices both remain massively supported by easing financial conditions and a bunch of liquidity in the market.
• While the Fed Funds Rate remains high at 5,5% – liquidity conditions in the market is what really matters for both safe haven assets.
• Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan announced that gold is their number one pick in the commodities market. According to them, the price has room to rise towards $2.500.

• This is our first report on capital equipment manufacturer, Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc.
• The company delivered their Q1 2024 earnings recently, announcing an impressive revenue of $171.2 million for the December quarter.
• However, not all news from the call was as positive because GAAP net income stood at only $9.3 million, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share at $0.3. However, this was still slightly higher than the guidance midpoint.

• This is our first report on Envestnet, a leading provider of integrated wealth management solutions.
• The company announced strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023 in its latest earnings call.
• The company reported solid growth and successfully executed its strategic initiatives, leading to significant margin expansion.

• This is our first report on quantum computing systems producer, IONQ. The company has reported its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 earnings, showing strong performance within the quantum computing sector.
• The company generated $6.1 million in Q4, bringing the total recognized revenue to over $22 million for the full year, exceeding the upper end of their projected range.
• For the year, IonQ achieved $65.1 million in bookings, greatly surpassing its original bookings midpoint of $40 million, providing evidence of successful performance by both the technical and commercial team.

• Establishment Labs is a Costa Rican company known for manufacturing and selling breast implants, with their Motiva implant gaining market share from competitors.
• The stock price of ESTA has recently dropped significantly due to a weak Q3 and lowered guidance, presenting an opportunity for investors to get into the dominant player in the breast augmentation market at a discounted price.
• With Motiva having a low rupture rate and no cases of associated cancers, analysts value ESTA at approximately $100 a share on a DCF basis, making it a compelling investment opportunity for potential growth.

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• Viator offers a wide range of unique activities and tours around the world
• The Fork allows users to book tables at restaurants globally
• TripAdvisor remains a key player in the travel industry with an undervalued stock, presenting an attractive investment opportunity

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• Gold prices have staged a convincing long-term upside breakout against a backdrop of skepticism, which is contrarian bullish.
• Point and figure charts indicate a measured objective of 2576 over a probable 6–18-month time horizon and a measured objective of 3372 over a probable 3–5-year time frame.
• Gold mining stocks are cheap relative to gold and could offer even more upside potential on an intermediate- and long-term basis.

• This is our first report on internet information and services provider, Ziff Davis.
• The company has projected an optimistic growth outlook for 2024 as it reported a solid fourth quarter performance for the fiscal year of 2023.
• The company’s CEO, Vivek Shah expressed his confidence over the company’s business set up for notable growth in 2024 provided the depreciation 1.4% over the last two years.

• Hershey stock trading at 52-week low, making it attractive investment opportunity
• Drop in 10-year treasury yield making dividend-paying companies like Hershey more appealing to investors
• Challenges from new weight loss drugs affecting consumer appetite, but temporary dip creating discounted buying opportunity for strong brand

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• This is our first report on cloud-based solutions provider, Alarm.com.
• The company posted robust fourth quarter and full-year results for 2023 that surpassed expectations.
• The company’s software-as-a-service (SaaS) and license revenue reached $148.3 million in Q4, reflecting a 10.3% increase compared to the previous year.

• SPAC Activity returned to full pace in the past week, with several deals being announced, including with a Sustainable Fuels Maker and a Gold Producer from South Africa.
• Also, Trump tried to sell his stake in his social media company to Elon Musk as his SPAC deal stalled, and Fisker could be the latest EV De-SPAC to run out of cash. Read on to find out the latest about all things SPACs. 

• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and clean biofuels producer XCF Global Capital is merging with SPAC BH3 Acquisition, in a deal valuing the combined company at $1.84 billion. 

• This is our first report on Vishay Intertechnology, a renowned manufacturer of semiconductors and electronic components.
• In the last quarter, the company disclosed revenues of $785.2 million, within the guidance range of $770 million to $810 million.
• Notably, the lower industry demand was led by higher levels of finished goods inventories.

• This is our first report on FormFactor Inc., a leader in the semiconductor industry known for providing necessary equipment for the testing and measurement of chips before they hit the market.
• The company recently reported their fourth quarter 2023 earnings.
• FormFactor has achieved a consistent performance throughout the past year with CEO, Mike Slessor, confirming top-line results to be steady across the four quarters.

• This is our first report on Belden, a networking, connectivity, and cable products player.
• The company experienced high revenue and EPS in Q4 2023, both exceeding previous guidance.
• The solutions transformation has been cited as driving incremental demand and margin expansion.

• This is our first report on broadband and communications provider, Viasat Inc.
• The company’s financial results for Q3 FY24 in the conference call were highlighted by strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth.
• The company reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 73%, reaching $1.1 billion.

• This is our first report on high-speed connectivity solutions provider, Credo.
• The company reported Q3 FY24 earnings, with revenue at $53.1 million and non-GAAP gross margin at 62.2%.
• Credo’s results and future growth expectations are being fueled by the growing market for high-speed, energy-efficient connectivity solutions in data infrastructure.

• Our base case valuation is market cap of US$5.4 billion or target price of US$35.9 per share, which is 20% higher than high end of the IPO price range (US$30).
• We estimate Astera Labs (ALAB US) to generate revenue of $221.3 million (up 91.1% YoY) in 2024 and $304.5 million (up 37.5% YoY) in 2025.
• Many investors are willing to take extra risk to invest in companies such as Astera Labs that could generate strong sales growth amid rush to aggressively expand AI capabilities.

• It has been exactly eighteen months since Ethereum made the big switch from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake, an event widely known as the Merge.
• In simple terms, after the Merge, the responsibility for verifying transactions and proposing new blocks on the Ethereum network shifted from miners to holders, provided they choose to become stakers.
• To maintain the blockchain as stakers, holders lock up their Ether in the network.

• VIC pitch remains relevant as Allegion is undervalued compared to historical P/E ratio
• Majority of sales from resilient aftermarket and institutional sectors make Allegion’s business more stable than perceived
• Strong presence in North America provides solid revenue base with high margins, presenting a strong investment opportunity for long-term growth and value appreciation

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• Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
• reported strong fourth quarter results for 2023 with key financial metrics in line with its December IR day.
• Revenue growth for the Brokerage and Risk Management segments was 20% with 8.1% organic growth, a figure that the company corrects to 9.4% controlling for accounting adjustments and large life case timing.

• Bumble Inc.
• has reported an increase of 13% in its Q4 2023 revenue to $274 million, meeting its financial projections.
• This growth was propelled by a 16% rise in paying users, with contributions from both the Bumble and Badoo apps.

• Carvana has seen a big increase in its stock price despite concerns over bankruptcy that did not come to fruition
• The company has advantages in unit economics and is well-positioned to gain market share in the auto retail industry
• Carvana offers competitive pricing, quality, convenience, and selection, making it an attractive option for customers and investors alike

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• Oracle Corporation’s Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings presented a mixed but predominantly positive picture.
• Chief Executive Officer Safra Catz noted excellent overall quarterly performance, with quarterly revenue meeting expectations and earnings per share exceeding it by $0.02.
• The company’s infrastructure cloud business (OCI) was singled out for significant praise, as it has become the main factor accelerating the overall revenue growth rate, even outpacing their cloud competitors.

• Alcoa highlighted improvement in safety and operational performance.
• The company achieved production records at its three smelters in Canada and one in Norway, signalling strong operational capabilities and efficiency.
• Improvements have been credited to a clear focus on values including integrity, operational excellence, and care for people.

• During the latest fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings for United Airlines Holdings, the management team expressed positive sentiments regarding operational trends and financial performance, despite multiple headwinds at the global level.
• The airline’s 2023 performance was framed as a clear demonstration of its United Next plan’s effectiveness, buoied by diversified revenue streams and robust operational metrics.
• United Airlines posted full-year EPS (earnings per share) above $10, meeting its initial United target range.

• Peloton Interactive, Inc., the manufacturer and seller of indoor exercise bicycles and treadmills, released its Q2 2024 result addressing several impactful issues regarding market penetration and sustainability.
• During the earnings, several overarching themes were pointed out, such as Tread and Tread+ growth, the strengthening of the all-important second leg to support growth, and the area’s substantial rise in renewal growth.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share. 
• Founded in 2017, Astera Labs is a fabless semiconductor company headquartered in Silicon Valley. The company designs and sells semiconductor technology, but the production is outsourced.
• Astera Labs’ major competitors include Montage Technology (688008 CH), Parade Technologies (4966 TT), Broadcom (AVGO US), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL US).

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $41 price target for Build-a-Bear, slightly raising our FY24 EPS and rolling out FY25 projections after the company reported basically in-line 4QFY23 (January) results and initiated a quarterly dividend program, with an initial quarterly payout of $0.20 per share.
• We believe Build-A-Bear remains highly focused on shareholder value and the company is poised to register solid returns and upside as their experiential offerings continue to expand and resonate with their growing customer base; further, with net cash per share of over $3.10 (and no debt), a dividend yield of 2.7% and trading under 4.5X our FY25 EBITDA, we view the risk/reward in BBW as compelling, and we reiterate our Buy raring and $41 price target.

• After the close on Tuesday, SurgePays reported mixed 4Q23 results.
• Total revenue of $32.3 million exceeded our $32.1 million estimate but was slightly below consensus of $33.6 million.
• However, EBITDA of $3.4 million was below both our estimate and consensus of $6.5 million and $6.9 million, respectively.

• Dollar General (DG)’s stock had an interesting reaction to today’s earnings.
• First it went up by ~6% in pre-market, but then ended the day 5% down.
• Despite the somewhat bizarre stock price reaction throughout the day, I think the worst days are likely behind DG.

• VAALCO’s YE23 cash position of US$121 mm and FY23 WI production of 23,946 boe/d were in line with previous indications.
• The company held 77.3 mmboe WI 2P reserves at YE23 including 15.8 mmbbl in Gabon, 24.5 mmbbl in Egypt, 18.6 mmboe in Canada and 18.5 mmboe in EG. This represents a 1% increase vs YE23 as VAALCO has more than replaced its FY23 production given the strong performance of the producing assets in 2023.
• The FY24 capex budget is US$70-90 mm (we forecasted US$138 mm) as only US$30-40 mm will be spent in Gabon (on long lead items) with a larger than previously expected drilling programme starting in 2025.