United States

• Zscaler missed billings estimates and lowered full-year revenue guidance due to extended sales cycles and deal closures delays
• Declining performances in the cybersecurity sector indicate potential underperformance for Crowdstrike
• Author predicts potential significant miss in Crowdstrike’s upcoming earnings based on current trends in the market

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• Anticipate significant downward revision in Arlo Technologies’ long-term revenue guidance
• Management’s lack of transparency regarding key performance indicators may have misled investors
• Initiate a short position before Feb. 29th guidance update to benefit from potential share price decline.

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• VAALCO has brought online four new long (2.75 mile) lateral wells in Canada.
• Three wells delivered IP rates of 500 bbl/d while the fourth well flowed 350 bbl/d for a total production capacity addition of 1.85 mbbl/d.
• This is a good result and compares with individual IP30 oil rates of 374-444 bbl/d achieved at the two wells drilled in 2023.

• TLNE is putting its growing cash balance to use by announcing a Dutch tender buyback of up to $600 million of its stock.
• The Dutch tender establishes our price target of $120 is too low as we look ahead to 2025.
• Our price target of $120 was based on TLNE generating approximately $700 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2024. We are now using our 2025 estimate for our price target

• RICK is the largest strip club operator that also owns the struggling restaurant chain, Bombshells
• Strip clubs in RICK’s targeted locations are generally profitable due to limited competition and high barriers to entry
• Tootsie’s, a club owned by RICK, experienced significant revenue and EBITDA growth since its acquisition in 2007, showcasing the company’s ability to generate attractive returns on acquisitions in the strip club industry

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• BILL Holdings shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~37% year-to-date versus a 12% gain on the Nasdaq Composite Index.  
• Shares saw sell-off post 3Q’FY24 earnings as results indicated a weak 4Q’FY24 guidance and customer churn while SMBs continue to be pressured by high inflation and interest rates.
• My bear case implies a $31 valuation (vs. prior $25 PT), based on ~2x FY25E EV/Revenue and bear case FY25E revenue of $1368M, representing ~40% downside vs. current levels.

• Recently, we have discussed the significant positive shift in the U.S. regulatory environment for crypto.
• You might be weary of regulatory discussions, but we need to address the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework.
• This framework is set to take full effect on December 30, 2024.

• 214MW of new projects to more than double the existing 75MW in operation and further builds on Soluna’s impressive corporate turnaround.
• In the past year, Soluna has launched its flagship Project Dorothy with both hosting (1A) and propriety mining (1B), moved to more profitable hosting contracts at its 25MW Project Sophie, began diversifying revenue through AI hosting at Project Sophie, and launched a new AI cloud venture and the Helix AI datacenter design.
• In addition, the company has been adjusted EBITDA positive for the past two quarters, while the balance sheet has improved. 

• On May 14, 2024, Satellos Biosciences Inc. (MSCLF) announced financial results for the first quarter of 2024 and provided a business update.
• Satellos is on track to initiate a Phase 1 first-in-human clinical trial of its lead development asset SAT-3247 in mid-2024.
• The company has completed manufacturing bulk quantities of the drug and formulated the first tablets for use in the trial.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $41 price target for Build-A-Bear Workshop after the company reported lower than consensus 1Q results, driven by weaker-than-expected online revenue, but reiterated both revenue and pre-tax income guidance for FY24.
• Given the multiple shifts in FY24, the potential for the company to drive material franchised and commercial revenue and what we view as a highly appealing experiential shopping experience, we remain positive on the potential for Build-A-Bear to achieve their guidance for FY24.
• Further, with the company remaining committed to returning capital to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends and maximizing a cash rich, debt-free balance sheet, we view today’s weakness in BBW as an opportunity to invest in one of the strongest (and highest margin) specialty retailers.

• Ally remains confident in their ability to navigate challenges with a focus on pricing and underwriting discipline
• Ally’s strong capital position and strategic focus on digital banking position them well to benefit from potential economic recovery and rising interest rates
• Author believes Ally’s stock has significant long-term growth potential and could triple in value, with limited downside risk in the short term

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• Zeta Markets, a Solana-based decentralised exchange for on-chain perpetuals, has closed a US$5 million strategic funding round led by Electric Capital, with participation from DACM, Selini Capital, and Airtree Ventures.
• Prominent angel investors also joined, including Anatoly Yakovenko of Solana, Mert Mumtaz of Helius, Richard Wu of Tensor, Marius Ciubotariu of Kamino, Stepan Simkin of Squads, Alex Smirnov of Debridge, Genia Mikhalchenko of Pyth, Nom of Bonk, and JMR Luna of Wintermute.
• This deal brings Zeta Markets’s total funding raised to date to US$13.5 million.

• Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
• Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
• Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight

• Waystar Holding, provider of mission-critical cloud software to healthcare organizations, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~$970M in the upcoming Nasdaq offering.
• The initial public offering is expected to be between $20.00 and $23.00. At the midpoint, Waystar Holding has a market value of ~$3.7B based on 173.4M fully diluted shares.
• In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and research multiples of M&A transactions, including Athenahealth, Cerner and Change Healthcare. 

• Having completed an analysis of data from its terminated ORA-D-013-1 Phase 3 trial, Oramed is optimistic about prospects for ORMD-0801, particularly for certain subpopulations of patients with specific parameters that match those of study participants who responded well to oral insulin.
• ORMP has initiated discussions with the FDA and plans to launch a Phase 3 oral insulin trial in the U.S. under a differentiated protocol aligned with the positive data.
• Separately, a recent licensing agreement with Genomma Lab could provide attractive royalty revenue, if Genomma can commercialize an OTC hemorrhoids treatment & other products for which ORMP had acquired the rights.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for urban-gro after meeting with management at their Centennial, CO headquarters.
• After a period where the company has repositioned the business model around the commercial real estate space, urban-gro is optimistic on the prospects for a return to growth for Controlled Environment Agriculture (“CEA”), driven by the pending reclassification of cannabis by the Drug Enforcement Administration and the potential for Florida to legalize recreational cannabis in November.
• Further, management is breaking down silos between functions to be able to offer more services and register stronger overall returns.

• BTC Spot ETFs Fuel Bull Rally: ETF inflows drive Bitcoin’s rally, signaling strong bullish momentum and potential all-time highs.
• Market Structure Shift Supports BTC: Positive ETF flows correlate with Bitcoin price gains, indicating crucial market structure changes.
• ETH Spot ETF Ignites Alt Season: Unexpected ETH spot ETF approval boosts Ethereum, sparking a potential altcoin surge.

• In late 2022, the company began its evolution from a consumer-focused, U.S. restaurant business into a global, food-focused organization with two distinct business units.
• The company’s largest operating unit is Sadot Agri-Foods, which is a vertically integrated international food supply chain company engaged in trading and shipping sustainable food and commodities such as soybeans, wheat and corn.
• Sadot’s legacy restaurant business is currently in the process of being divested.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for Lands’ End with the company announcing 1QFY24 (April) results before the open on Wednesday.
• We believe 1Q was another key step forward in terms of driving newness, reducing discounting and shifting the model to a focus on higher overall returns, with key categories (footwear) beginning to shift to the licensed model and international continuing to slowly turn.
• That said, with 1Q anniversarying the closing of the Delta contract, comparisons will be skewed.

• On May 15, 2024, Abeona Therapeutics, Inc. (ABEO) announced financial results for the first quarter of 2024 and provided a business update.
• The company is planning to resubmit the Biologics License Application (BLA) for pz-cel for the treatment of patients with recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB) in the second half of 2024 following the receipt of a Complete Response Letter (CRL) in April 2024.
• The CRL did not identify any deficiencies related to the clinical efficacy or clinical safety data but did request additional CMC information.

• On May 10, 2024, Edesa Biotech, Inc. (EDSA) announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 that ended March 31, 2024 and provided a business update.
• Edesa is planning to seek regulatory approval for a Phase 2 trial of its anti-CXCL10 mAb in patients with moderate-to-severe nonsegmental vitiligo.
• For EB05, the company has expanded site selection activities for the Phase 3 study in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by COVID-19 and has begun transitioning the day-to-day management of the trial to a new clinical research organization (CRO).

• On May 14, 2024, ESSA Pharma Inc. (EPIX) announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 that ended March 31, 2024 and provided a business update.
• ESSA is currently studying its lead compound, masofaniten (EPI-7386), in two clinical trials: EPI-7386-CS-001 and EPI-7386-CS-010.
• The -001 trial consists of Part A monotherapy treatment and Part B combination therapy of masofaniten plus abiraterone acetate/prednisone (Cohort 1 mHSPC or mCRPC) or with apalutamide following 12 weeks of monotherapy therapy (Cohort 2 nmCRPC).

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?
• with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results after the close on Thursday.
• We believe 1Q, which included material upgrades in the domestic retail store base, the acquisition of contemporary leader rag & bone, continued European expansion and what we believe were cautious buys from the domestic wholesale segment, will set the stage for a strong back-half and FY26, but will result, beyond further share repurchases, in limited top and bottom line upside for 1Q.

• On May 22, 2024, NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NRBO) announced that preclinical data of DA-1241 in combination with semaglutide in mouse models of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) will be presented at the EASL Congress 2024 on Thursday, June 6, 2024.
• Two abstracts will be presented: one using the GAN diet-induced obese and biopsy-confirmed mouse model of MASH and one using the CCl4 induced liver fibrosis model.
• The company shared some of the results that showed an additive effect on different parameters of liver health in both models, with the posters being available following the presentations.

• The 1Q24 Whitco Supply acquisition diversified DNOW’s customer base and added new revenue opportunities in the midstream markets.
• Management now expects FY24 revenue to increase in the mid- to high single digits range from FY23 and for adjusted EBITDA margin to be in line with FY23.
• Management lifted its FY24 free cash flow outlook to ~$200 million from ~$150 million.

• RMT is a closed-end fund focused on micro-cap stocks, offering exposure to a segment not easily accessible through other investments
• RMT has a notable performance track record and is currently trading at a discount of about 12%
• RMT is the only closed-end fund solely dedicated to micro-cap stocks, providing a unique investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to this niche market segment

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• Microsoft last week launched their CoPilot+ PC category which enables their CoPilot to run locally on your PC, as long as it has an NPU with >40 TOPS
• With Qualcomm being the only one currently offering such an NPU, their Snapdragon processors will be powering the first wave of CoPilot+ PC’s
• It’s an extraordinary accomplishment for Qualcomm & likely an inflection point for Arm powered PCs. It’s also really bad news for Intel and not great for AMD

• Take-Two Interactive Software Inc reported a healthy performance for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2024 with net bookings of $1.35 billion.
• The fiscal year 2024 saw net bookings of $5.33 billion.
• The performance for the period was attributed to the success of NBA 2K24, Zynga’s in-app purchases, Match Factory!, the Red Dead Redemption series, and the Grand Theft Auto series.

• S&P 5700 year end target remains intact after MONTHLY breakout. 
• Copper and silver rally to resume with dollar potentially falling.
• Semis continue to lead tech and look for software to join.

• Deere & Co.’s Q2 results revealed a decline in net sales and revenues with a noticeable impact from more challenging market conditions, particularly in the agriculture sector.
• Net sales have gone down by 15% to $13.61 billion while net income attributable to the company reached $2.37 billion or $8.53 per diluted share.
• Breaking it down by business segments, the Production and Precision Ag business reported net sales of $6.581 billion, a decline of 16% compared to the same period last year.

• Vimeo experienced a decline in growth post-spinoff from IAC due to fading COVID-related tailwinds
• Recent trends suggest a potential turnaround for Vimeo, with indications of a return to growth
• Focus on strategic business use cases and growth of Enterprise segment contributing to turnaround, transforming Vimeo into a profitable and cash flow-positive company

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• Expectations of an “above-normal” monsoon in 2024 currently help to keep prices for commodities that are in large parts grown in India under control.

• That includes rice as well as sugar prices.

• According to the IRI’s latest ENSO forecast, La Niña becomes the most probable category in Aug-Oct, 2024 through Jan-Mar, 2025.

• Potential all-cash offer for Tripadvisor complex may end tumultuous relationship with Liberty TripAdvisor
• LTRPA currently trades at a discount to NAV, expected to close if offer is finalized
• TRIP could be valued at $30-$35 per share, significant upside potential for LTRPA with multiple potential buyers interested

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• Walmart Inc. reported a robust start to the year in their latest earnings call Q&A section.
• With sales growth of 5.7% and adjusted operating profit up 12.9% in constant currency, all three operating segments performed well.
• This momentum was driven by growth not solely due to inflation, but through increases in units sold, transaction counts, and market share gains, particularly in general merchandise.

• Do we even need to mention the most significant news from last week? Probably not.
• However, here is a brief summary: the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved an Ethereum spot ETF on Thursday.
• Almost as significant as the approval itself is the shift in the U.S. regulatory environment’s tone toward crypto.

• Investment opportunity in long Caesar’s Entertainment January 2026, $60 strike calls
• Stock has underperformed due to investments in digital without desired results
• Anticipated turning point in stock performance towards end of 2025 or 2026

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• Market fears production return will impact prices, with Wood McKenzie predicting increase in June production
• Northeast, Permian, and Haynesville expected to see production rebound in the coming months
• Price rally in US market driven by short summer positions, but weather will play a key role in price movements, with heat expected in the coming days potentially mitigating any retracement

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• Warby Parker disrupted the eyewear industry in 2010 with affordable prices and innovative styles, known for their commitment to social impact
• The company has faced challenges with slowing growth and increased competition, leading to concerns about its uniqueness and disrupter status
• Critics believe that Warby Parker’s focus on technology and business model changes indicate a potential decline, making it a target for short selling.

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• Dropbox, Inc.’s Q1 2024 earnings showed both positive and negative aspects of the company’s financial performance.
• In terms of positives, the company reported revenue for the quarter that met its expectations.
• In addition, Dropbox reported an increase in paying users with 35,000 net new additions, despite a challenging fourth quarter.

• In the first quarter of 2024, The Home Depot’s total sales amounted to $36.4 billion, marking a decrease of 2.3% from the same period last year.
• The company’s comp sales declined by 2.8% and US stores also reported negative comps of 3.2%.
• The diluted earnings per share were noted to be $3.63 for the first quarter, a dip from $3.82 during the first quarter of the previous year.

• SharkNinja’s first quarter 2024 earnings revealed a company with strong financial performance, a robust global supply chain, and a commitment to a growth strategy that has yielded positive results.
• In the first quarter, the company saw adjusted net sales increase by 28% and adjusted EBITDA grow by 30%.
• This can be attributed to significant investments in selling and marketing initiatives aimed at expanding the company’s presence in emerging international markets and driving global awareness of their new products.

• Cisco Systems (Cisco) had a promising Q3, with organic revenue aligning with the higher end of guidance expectations.
• The company has transformed its business model, with over half of its total revenue now coming from subscription services, providing the company with a robust base for potential long-term growth.
• The acquisition of Splunk was also completed, adding over $4 billion in annualized recurring revenue and strengthening Cisco’s position as one of the world’s major software companies.

• Within the first quarter of 2024, Royalty Pharma displayed impressive performance, managing 14% growth in royalty receipts, thereby underlining the benefits of its diversified portfolio encompassing over 35 commercial products.
• However, it is important to note a decline for milestones and other contractual payments, which were mainly affected by a high base of the year-ago quarter due to a single nonrecurring Biohaven-related payment.
• Portfolio Receipts, as a result, decreased to $717 million, aligning with the company’s expectations.

• US Foods, one of the largest foodservice distributors in the United States, delivered its first quarter 2024 earnings, demonstrating adequate progress in executing its long-term strategy, despite adverse weather conditions and labor disruptions.
• Despite these challenges, they still managed to achieve 4.2% total case growth, with independent case volume growing by 4.6%.
• The company’s quarterly success gave them the confidence to maintain their full-year guidance.

• MPLX reported year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, which attained $1.6 billion and distributable cash flow peaked at $1.4 billion, the latter being an increase of 8% from the previous year.
• This significant financial performance underpins the company’s commitment to return on and return of capital with an expectation for steady growth in the partnership through strict capital discipline.
• This progress has seen MPLX yield a peer-leading return on invested capital over the past three years.

• Onto Innovation’s Q1 2024 results indicate a solid start to the year, reflecting a robust uptake for high bandwidth memory and logic packaging for AI devices.
• The net quarter revenue upsurged at the top end of the guidance range, a significant 15% rise from the same period the previous year.
• Notably, Onto Innovation’s specialty and advanced packaging customers achieved a record growth for the third consecutive quarter, attributing a 64% year on year increase during Q1 2024.

• Plug Power reported its first quarter 2024 earnings and the quarter was identified as one with key strategic decisions focused on enhancing cash management strategies and intensifying sales growth.
• To reinforce its leadership in the green hydrogen economy, significant strides were made in scaling up operations.
• The company’s production facilities in Georgia and Tennessee were reported to be operating at full capacity, while the commissioning of a new plant in Louisiana was eagerly expected.

• Following the fiscal 2024 fourth quarter earnings, of Qorvo Inc, an investment thesis can be derived from the presented results that highlights both positive and negative aspects for potential investors.
• Starting with the positive aspects, Qorvo seems well-positioned to capitalize on global secular macro trends, including mobility, connectivity, electrification, and datafication.
• These trends are enabling new applications and user experiences, making them increasingly relevant in the modern business landscape.

• Uber has kicked off 2024 with positive growth, reporting a 21% year-on-year increase in rides, which equates to its gross bookings growth rate. Their user base expanded by 15%, underpinned by 7.1 million drivers and couriers operating on the platform. The firm’s record adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion and the generation of $4.2 billion in free cash flow over the last year reflect a significant financial upswing. However, the world of automobiles is shifting towards autonomous vehicles (AVs), posing both challenges and opportunities for Uber. The firm needs to strategize to withstand expected competition from entities like Tesla. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi maintains that breakthroughs in AV technology will eventually prove profitable for Uber, as they promise safer rides and broader accessibility. However, the transition period from human-driven to autonomous vehicles will demand a balanced approach, exploiting both to keep the business steady. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Exact Sciences Corporation’s first quarter 2024 earnings. The quarter demonstrated robust performance with first quarter revenue growing by 6% to $638 million. Particularly noteworthy was the 7% increase in screening revenue to $475 million, which is attributed to the company’s successful optimization of billing and patient compliance systems. However, Exact Sciences faces a tough comparison base, as its growth in the previous year was buoyed by enhancements to billing and patient compliance systems and a weak flu season. The expansion of Precision Oncology revenue by 5% to $163 million also contributed to the company’s growth. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Insulet Corporation reported an excellent first quarter of 2024 that has exceeded expectations. The demand for Omnipod 5 continues to rise, the leading insulin delivery system, fueling a robust revenue growth. Performance-wise, the company achieved an overall Omnipod revenue growth of 21%, including a US growth of 23% and an international growth of 15%.
• The Omnipod 5 has brought significant success to Insulet in both the US and international markets, thanks to its simplicity and affordability. This offering has assisted in driving market growth, as demonstrated by the fact that during the quarter, approximately 85% of new starts came from people previously utilizing multiple daily injections. This pattern of new starts is encouraging because these new starters originated from Insulet’s target market. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Warner Music Group (WMG) demonstrates its influence in the music industry with a global team that continuously delivers for its artists and drives the business forward. In the second quarter earnings call transcript, Warner Music Group specified that the total revenue increased by 7% with Recorded Music and Music Publishing increasing by 4% and 19% respectively. This growth reflects the company’s efficacy in creating and promoting music in various genres and throughout all stages of artists’ development. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Roblox Corporation reported its results of their first quarter 2024 earnings and reported that daily active users (DAUs) hit over 77 million, marking a 17% increase from the same period the year before. Year-on-year growth for users above the age of 13 was particularly impressive, at 22%.
• Japan, a significant gaming market, reported a growth surge of 50%, while India saw similar success, boasting a growth rate of 58%.
• There was also positive news relating to revenue, which hit $801 million, marking a 22% year-on-year rise and exceeding the company’s own projected range of $755 million to $780 million. Bookings were $923.8 million, landing firmly within the predicted guidance range of $910 million to $940 million. However, Baszucki highlighted expectations were for a higher figure, sparking some concern. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Fox Corporation reported strong Q3 fiscal year 2024 results, demonstrating its ability to distinguish itself from its peers with a 7% EBITDA growth and the steady performance of its brands. However, these results were compared against last year’s Q3 which benefited significantly from the windfall of Super Bowl LVII.
• Fox’s total affiliate revenue fees showed promising growth, with a 4% increase driven by the benefits of recent renewals. This was evident in both the Television and Cable segments. However, advertising revenues were down due to the absence of the Super Bowl and fewer NFL broadcasts compared to the previous year. If the shortfall from NFL games were disregarded, overall advertising revenues would have increased slightly. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Duolingo Inc. recently released its Q1 2024 shareholder letter, announcing positive financial results while outlining future initiatives. The company achieved revenue and bookings growth of 45% and 41% respectively and saw active daily users grow by 54% YoY, signaling the effectiveness of their product-driven flywheel. The strategy of offering efficient language tutoring, driving user growth, and converting users to subscribers has proven to be beneficial for the platform. Duolingo also announced record profitability for the quarter. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• Hyatt revealed in its Q1 Earnings that the year has started vigourously for them, displaying growth in multiple dimensions and expanding fees. The occupancy and RevPAR trends they have been observing are strong, driven by noteworthy demands across all customer segments. An increase of 5.5% in system-wide RevPAR was seen in Q1 on the back of robust leisure travel trends. While there is expectation of a subdued year-over-year growth rate, the rates are noticeably above pre pandemic levels. They also observed healthy business transient revenue indicating resumption in business travel. Furthermore, Hyatt’s loyalty program saw a growth of 22% over the past year, reaching a total of approximately 46 million members. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• The New York Times Company (NYT) reported a strong beginning to the year in its Q1 2024 earnings. The company’s strategy – aiming to become the essential subscription for people seeking to understand and engage with the world – is performing well, contributing to its sustained growth in a dynamic media environment. Among key drivers of this growth are the company’s diverse products serving various consumer needs and its deeply engaged subscriber base. Additionally, the high level of subscriber engagement observed reinforces NYT’s belief in its ability to grow the digital-only Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), anticipated to rise on a yearly basis, given multiple pricing and monetization levers. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios – a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

• We are slightly decreasing our diluted EPS estimate for 2024 by a penny, from $2.20 to $2.19, a 2% gain from 2023’s actual diluted EPS of $2.15.
• Our initial estimate for 2025 is $2.35 per diluted share, representing a 7% gain over our 2024 estimate.
• We expect moderate gains in net interest income in 2024 and 2025 as solid loan growth, estimated at 8% in 2024 and 8% in 2025, will be partly offset by a lower net interest margin.

• Marvell has historically performed well in the market but is now shifting its focus to growth areas such as AI, cloud computing, and faster data networks
• Despite recent cyclical weakness, the company is expected to see improved performance and strong earnings growth
• Reactivating the account is a strategic move to capitalize on Marvell’s promising future prospects and potential increase in stock value

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Immersion (IMMR) announced it had renewed its patent license agreement with Samsung Electronics removing the biggest risk overhang of 2024
• Samsung has been IMMR’s largest customer at one point representing more than 60 percent of revenue. In the most recent 10K filing, IMMR describes Samsung as a significant customer
• We assume there was a step down in the rate Samsung pays, since this is usually the norm with technology companies and IP deals

• HubSpot Inc.’s Q1 2024 earnings conference call revealed a mix of strong performance and cautious optimism.
• Total customers grew by 22% YoY, translating to over 215,000 customers globally, driven by over 11,700 net customer additions in the quarter.
• Revenue growth was solid at 23% year-over-year in constant currency, alongside another good quarter of operating margin growth, driving the operating margin to 15%.

• Importance of incorporating volatility-dampening mechanisms into portfolio construction during low market volatility
• Strategies for lowering portfolio volatility including short exposure, downside hedges, gross exposure flex management, and allocations to private equity and private credit
• Benefits of implementing these mechanisms in managing capital effectively and supporting a more stable emotional investment experience

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• AppLovin Corporation, a mobile tech company specializing in developing software for developers and marketers, reported strong financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024.
• The company recorded a total revenue of $1.06 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $549 million, demonstrating a 52% margin.
• AppLovin’s CFO, Matt Stumpf, noted that the company’s revenue grew by almost 50% compared to the same period last year, and the adjusted EBITDA has doubled.

• Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) reported positive results on February 21st, 2024, indicating a potential turnaround for the company.
• Despite a challenging year in 2023, VAC’s issues were temporary and offer an opportunity to invest in a growing business with a 10%+ free cash flow yield.
• VAC is a leisure-focused timeshare business with a strong presence in the vacation ownership market, owning upscale resort brands and deriving 35% of adjusted EBITDA from recurring sources.

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• Investors were generally positive and not bearish, with a focus on thin spreads compensated by yields and strong credit quality
• High grade bond demand remained strong, with ongoing retail interest and no weakening in institutional demand reported
• Hedge fund investors in high yield were cautious, focusing on avoiding losers and uncertainty around creditor outcomes

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• Short-selling opportunity in American whiskey prices, with MGPI as a target
• Stock price of company declined 15% after reporting, but author sees larger downward trend
• Changing market dynamics provide significant upside potential for short position, timed well to capitalize on industry changes.

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• On May 8, 2024, Kamada Ltd. (KMDA) announced financial results for the first quarter of 2024.
• Revenues for the first quarter of 2024 were $37.7 million, which was a 23% increase compared to the first quarter of 2023.
• Adjusted EBITDA was $7.5 million, which was a 96% increase from the $3.8 million in the first quarter of 2023.

• Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) is a leading wholesale insurance broker founded in 2010 by former AON CEO Pat Ryan
• RYAN generates 65% of revenue from wholesale insurance brokerage and 35% from underwriting and binding authority programs
• The company has achieved consistent double-digit organic growth through over 45 acquisitions, majority owned by Pat Ryan and employees, focusing on long-term value creation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• AMAT Q124 revenues of $6.65 billion, in line with guidance and essentially flat both QoQ and YoY. Current quarter guidance also flat sequentially
• WFE valuations are at all time record highs while revenues remain on life support from China
• If China revenues fall off before non-China returns to growth, the WFE segment could be in for a world of pain.

• INOD is benefiting from the movement to incorporate artificial intelligence (“A.I.”) into many applications
• INOD provides the datasets required for training A.I. and it has quickly become a leading provider of such service
• The Company is now on pace to grow at a faster pace than expected and should lead to higher earnings and free cash flow in coming quarters

• Nvidia announced another sharp sales increase to $26 billion in quarterly revenues
• The company’s growth is far greater than hyperscaler CapEx growth, as standard servers yield to AI servers: Bad news for Intel & AMD
• Some of this may stem from an inventory build at the hyperscaler, which may lead to another Boom/Bust cycle similar to 2018 and 2022

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess?
• stores in the New York City Metro area and Long Island.
• We believe the company continued to drive strong momentum in May, with Mother’s Day solid and the company’s focus on key fashion items, such as cargo pants, shorts, handbags, watches and active wear a plus.

• Recommendation to buy SPLS 10.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due Apr-27 in the 78c area
• Company is a B2B distributor of office supplies and professional categories in the US, with no retail stores
• Potential for 45% total return if refinanced at par one year before maturity, with current yield of 13.8%

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• Glatfelter faced solvency issues after overpaying for Jacob Holm in late 2021
• Turnaround CEO Thomas Fahnemann appointed in July 2022 to address liquidity issues
• Reverse Morris Trust transaction with Berry Packaging leads to 60% increase in stock price, creating NewCo for potential successful turnaround.

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• The in vitro testing examined the removal of EVs directly from plasma & was reviewed and examined by an independent 3rd party commercial lab & by NAMSA, AEMD’s CRO for its planned Australian oncology study.
• The data is a critical element enabling the company to move the Hemopurifier forward in clinical oncology studies towards potential regulatory approval and commercialization.
• The next step is for AEMD to add the data to its Clinical Investigator Brochure, which it will then submit to the Ethics Committees at clinical sites interested in participating in the planned trials in Australia and India.

• Tuya reported a strong 1Q24, with revenue of $61.7 million, up 30% Y/Y (consensus was for ~15% Y/Y growth).
• Gross margin continued to grow, up 360 bps Y/Y to 47.8% (a company record). IoT PaaS revenue grew 36% Y/Y to $45.6 million.
• Its 590-bp Y/Y margin improvement was significant to corporate margin growth. 

• Kinetic is a Permian midstream business formed from the merger of Altus Midstream and Blackstone’s Raptor I and Raptor II G&P businesses
• The company is the only large, pure-play Permian midstream business, with two business units focused on Midstream Logistics and Pipeline Transportation
• Kinetic, still 50% owned by Blackstone, is expected to generate reasonable profits in the foreseeable future and presents a stable investment option in the current market environment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• MIRA Pharmaceuticals is a preclinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of new molecular synthetic cannabinoid analog for the treatment of adult patients with neuropathic pain as well as anxiety and cognitive decline typically associated with early-stage dementia.
• The company announced it is in advanced discussions with a top cancer hospital to study Ketamir-2 for the treatment of cancer-related pain and depression.

• The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
• All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
• Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.

• The Q2 Fiscal Year 2024 was a good quarter for Apple Inc. as they saw growth in several international markets and set numerous records worldwide.
• The company reported revenue of $90.8 billion and an EPS record of $1.53.
• They also announced revenue records in over a dozen countries and regions, and an all-time revenue record in Indonesia.

• Dutch Bros has experienced growth during the COVID-19 pandemic but faces challenges in a more competitive market
• Despite improved financial metrics, the company is expected to see weakness in comparable sales and new store economics
• Investors are optimistic about Dutch Bros’ growth potential but there are concerns about its ability to sustain profitability and achieve long-term growth targets amid market challenges.

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• Magyar Bancorp (MGYR) completed its second-step conversion in July 2021, making it eligible for acquisition by another bank in July 2024
• MGYR has seven branch locations in New Brunswick, New Jersey, with a small market share in Middlesex and Somerset counties
• The company’s strategic location and potential for growth may make it an attractive target for acquisition in the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In the first quarter of 2024, Permian Resources, led by co-CEOs Will Hickey and James Walter, achieved production and free cash flow above expectations, integrated Earthstone ahead of schedule, increased its annual synergy target by $50 million, and executed on accretive mergers and acquisitions with around $270 million of acquisitions announced that quarter.
• Notably, they reported total production of 320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and oil production of 152,000 barrels of oil per day.
• To maintain a robust balance sheet, the company minimized its financial leverage to approximately 1x and increased its liquidity to over $2 billion.

• Confluent Inc.’s Q1 2024 performance indicates a robust start for the fiscal year, surpassing all guided metrics with a total revenue growth of 25% to $217 Million, a testament to the successful execution of the firm’s strategies, especially amidst a somewhat unpredictable macro-environment.
• Noteworthy in these earnings is the impressive growth of Confluent Cloud, now accounting for over half of the company’s subscription revenue and emerging as the fastest-growing offering with a 45% increase to $107 Million.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Meme Coins Reflect Disillusionment: Emerging from distrust in traditional finance, meme coins leverage cultural relevance for adoption.
• Attention Drives Crypto Value: Memes and narratives shape crypto value, emphasizing the importance of attention.
• AI Disrupts Attention Economy: AI threatens traditional distribution channels, making crypto a potential solution.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
• We believe, with exciting new “furry friends” for Summer, a strong start to the graduation season, new Mini Beans to drive incremental purchases and the start of potential summer movies, Build-A-Bear remains ideally positioned to leverage its experiential shopping model and continue to gain further market share.
• As such, and with BBW continuing to trade at 8.1X FY25 EPS and a 2.7% dividend yield, we believe the risk/reward remains compelling, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $41 price target.

• Trane Technologies Plc emerged from the latest earnings with solid results in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting the success of its underlying business strategies and operational excellence.
• The company offers compelling investment prospects given the ongoing tailwinds in its market segments, continued innovation, and higher revenue and earnings outlook for the year.
• Strong corresponding results of previous efforts in megaprojects and building services, as well as a robust backlog of $7.7 billion, a 10% increase from the previous year, lend credence to the positive growth trajectory and further validates this investment.

• ETH ETF Approval Odds Soar: Bloomberg increases ETH spot ETF approval odds from 25% to 75%, shaking up the crypto market.
• BTC ETF Inflows Rebound: BTC ETF inflows revive, marking the first consecutive positive flow days in over a month, signaling bullish potential.
• Bullish BTC Momentum: BTC holds above $65K, showing bullish market structure with potential for retesting $71K-$72K amidst improving ETF flows.