Category

TMT/Internet

TMT: Tencent, SK Square, GoTo, Nintendo Co Ltd, Hollysys Automation Technologies, Technology Select Sector SPDR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?
  • Korea Holding Companies: Stub Tradable Names
  • Tencent (700 HK): Layoff and Penalty Before 4Q21 Result
  • GoTo IPO – Past Performance Hasn’t All Been Great
  • Nintendo – Switch Pro Leaks And Implications For Developers
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Potential Suitors Didn’t Get The Memo
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion
  • Tencent Met Our 320 Macro Long Entry Target
  • Downgrading Technology To Underweight
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO Initiation: Island Shopping

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

By Brian Freitas

  • Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.
  • From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.
  • Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.

Korea Holding Companies: Stub Tradable Names

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea has a total of 68 holding companies listed on KOSPI and KOSDAQ. We then have 14 holdcos with a high level of price cointegration with their respective listed subsidiaries.
  • Three holding companies have sigma below zero on a 20D MA. Hanwha Corp is considered stub tradable as its share price relative to its subsidiaries was relatively flat.
  • Four holdcos, including SK Square are over 70% NAV discount. Among them, SK Square is of the most interest as the price correlation with SK Hynix has been improving lately.

Tencent (700 HK): Layoff and Penalty Before 4Q21 Result

By Ming Lu

  • Layoff rumors are spreading, which shadow two departments and 10% of Tencent’s employees.
  • China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) will fine Tencent for money laundering.
  • Short video apps are taking time on site from Tencent’s WeChat app.

GoTo IPO – Past Performance Hasn’t All Been Great

By Sumeet Singh

  • GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
  • GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s past performance.

Nintendo – Switch Pro Leaks And Implications For Developers

By Mio Kato

  • Recent hacks into Nvidia have resulted in leaks that have got the rumour mills churning again for an upgrade to the Switch. 
  • Most details are similar to previous reporting by Bloomberg for the Switch Pro that was expected last year but failed to materialise. 
  • However, the recent leaks point to a bigger GPU upgrade that previously envisioned and that has implications…

Hollysys (HOLI US): Potential Suitors Didn’t Get The Memo

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hollysys Automation (HOLI US) said in January it would suspend further evaluation of all unsolicited buyout proposals. Two proposals have reportedly since emerged.
  • According to Bloomberg, the latest tilt is from Beijing Infrastructure, the state-owned operator of Beijing’s railway and subway.
  • Separately, Hollysys reported FY21 net income of US$44.3mn, a decrease of 14.6% to FY20.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • GoTo (1379371D IJ) is offering 52bn shares in its IPO (plus a greenshoe of 7.8bn shares). The issue is being targeted at domestic investors and should list on 4 April.
  • GoTo (1379371D IJ) will also look to list on an international exchange within the next two years by selling just over 8% of the company to those investors.
  • Inclusion in domestic indices could take place in July, while inclusion in the MSCI and FTSE indices is expected in 2023 at the earliest.

Tencent Met Our 320 Macro Long Entry Target

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our bear call on Tencent met the reverse target at 320 at macro support to go long with some choppy trade expected in coming weeks. Volume spikes to induce volatility.
  • Hong Kong tech index also met the 3,500 rally support. 4,500 represents immediate resistance that will induce a rejection and pullback. Magnitude of this rise will need a give back.
  • Tencent 390/400 is near resistance to sell (tactical short) and sets up the bigger buy in the lower range quadrant. 400 is the level to clear for bull traction.

Downgrading Technology To Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. 
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.
  • In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment & Products, SV-13 Construction & Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO Initiation: Island Shopping

By Arun George

  • GoTo (1379371D IJ) is the leading digital ecosystem in Southeast Asia. It seeking to raise up to $1.3 billion. Bookbuilding runs from 15 to 21 March. 
  • The fundamentals are mixed as the high growth is accompanied by ongoing losses and cash burn. A credible path to profitability is yet to be established.    
  • In an environment where growth-at-all costs tech firms and peers have materially sold-off and are out of favour, GoTo is not for the faint-hearted.   

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Tencent, GoTo, Globalwafers, IndiaMart and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent: Possible Record Fine for Anti-Money Laundering
  • GoTo Pre-IPO – Quick Take on US$1bn+ Domestic Listing
  • GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Under Current Ukraine Crisis, We Have to Admit the Volatility Is Very High.
  • Initiating Coverage:Indiamart Inter.

Tencent: Possible Record Fine for Anti-Money Laundering

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported yesterday that Tencent (700 HK) is facing a possible record fine for violating anti-money laundering regulations in China.
  • People’s Bank of China has found that WeChat Pay had allowed transfer and laundering of funds with illicit transactions which violates the country’s anti-money laundering regulations.
  • Tencent’s shares dropped further 10.3% to HK$331 per share from HK$369 per share during yesterday’s trade following the above report.

GoTo Pre-IPO – Quick Take on US$1bn+ Domestic Listing

By Sumeet Singh

  • GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. The company has filed its prospectus today.
  • GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
  • In this note, we will take a quick look at the company’s financial performance.

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Under Current Ukraine Crisis, We Have to Admit the Volatility Is Very High.

By Patrick Liao

  • Under current Ukraine crisis, we have to admit the volatility is very high. Not only the GlobalWafers, but the other semiconductor names are stumbled as well.
  • Although 4Q21 revenue is NT$15.8bn, the highest record in GlobalWafers’ history, but the termination fee on Siltronic deal was €15mn, which was consuming NT$3.5 for GlobalWafers’ net EPS.
  • GlobalWafers keeps NT$100bn, ~US$3.6bn, for the expansion in next couple of years, which covers investments across Asia, Europe and the United States spanning both brownfield and greenfield projects.

Initiating Coverage:Indiamart Inter.

By Axis Direct

  • We assign 45x to the company’s FY24E earnings of Rs 150 to arrive at the target price of Rs 6,800/share, implying an upside of 52% from the CMP.
  • .
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Palantir Technologies Inc, LG Energy Solution, Coupang, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Amazon.com Inc, Paytm and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Palantir – Little Early But Getting Interesting Again
  • Korean Financial Authorities Tighten IPO Requirements for Institutional Investors
  • Softbank Sells $1.0 Billion Additional Worth of Coupang: Continued Overhang Concerns
  • HSI 18,100 a Big Level
  • To Buy or not to Buy: Stock Splits?
  • RBI directs PPBL to temporarily stop onboarding new customers

Palantir – Little Early But Getting Interesting Again

By Mio Kato

  • We last wrote on Palantir over a year ago when we suggested stepping away given expiring lock-ups. 
  • The stock is down 58% since that call as it has sold off together with other unprofitable, high-growth names. 
  • However, we remain of the view that there is something to Palantir unlike many of its compatriots and Ark is now out…

Korean Financial Authorities Tighten IPO Requirements for Institutional Investors

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 March, Korea Financial Investment Association (KFIA) announced that it will tighten IPO requirements for institutional investors.
  • This is likely to further dampen the local IPO market in Korea which has been in the doldrums after the biggest-ever IPO in Korea LG Energy Solution two month ago.
  • As a result of the change in the IPO requirements for institutional investors, this is likely to to negatively impact smaller investment funds without adequate amount of AUM.

Softbank Sells $1.0 Billion Additional Worth of Coupang: Continued Overhang Concerns

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 March, it was reported that Softbank’s Vision Fund sold about 1.3 trillion won ($1.04 billion) worth of Coupang (CPNG US) shares on 9 March in a block deal.
  • The continued selling of Coupang shares by Softbank suggests that Softbank is not confident on the future prospects of the company. We remain negative on Coupang.
  • Another reason could be because Softbank needs to raise more cash to make up for the losses from its other investments (mainly Chinese tech companies). 

HSI 18,100 a Big Level

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI sliced below the 19,600 projection with the next level at 18,450 and the big dual lows from 2012 and 2016 at 18,100 and a big level to hold.
  • Sell volumes and sell momentum remain high, equating to more short term pain.
  • HK tech index break below 4,000 support set to test key lows from 2018 and 2019 as the levels to hold to avert new chart lows.

To Buy or not to Buy: Stock Splits?

By Market Sentiment

  • Stock splits are all the rage – After Google announced in Feb that there would be a 20:1 stock split in July this year
  • Amazon has followed suit announcing a similar 20:1 split and sending the market into a frenzy
  • Amazon’s price was up by 6% the next day and Google’s stock rose more than 9% in after-market trading following the news

RBI directs PPBL to temporarily stop onboarding new customers

By ICICI Securities Limited

  • RBI has directed Paytm Payments Bank (PPBL), an associate of One 97 Communications (OCL or Paytm), to temporarily halt onboarding of new customers, via a letter dated 11th Mar’22. The embargo will have an adverse impact on signing up users for new PPBL wallets or savings / current accounts, until further notice.
  • .
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr, Samsung SDI, Razer Inc, Advanced Micro Devices and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • China ADRs & HFCAA: Pace of Homecoming Listings Should Pick Up & Implications
  • TSMC (TSM.US; 2303.TT): ASP Lifting Hasn’t Decided Yet; QCOM Moves Back High-End Smartphone 8 Gen 1
  • KODEX (FnGuide) Battery ETF Rebalancing: Passive Flow Tracking for Two Remaining Days
  • Merger Arb Mondays – Razer, 51Job, Irongate, Link, Crown Resorts, Guodian
  • Charts to Watch

China ADRs & HFCAA: Pace of Homecoming Listings Should Pick Up & Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • China ADRs were sharply lower last week as the SEC started to name companies that were identified under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).
  • Then DiDi Global dropped 44% on Friday following reports that the their proposals to prevent data/security leaks did not meet CAC’s requirements and work on the HK listing was halted.
  • With 2024 not too far away, a lot of the U.S. listed companies will look at listing in Hong Kong in the near future. That will have its own implications.

TSMC (TSM.US; 2303.TT): ASP Lifting Hasn’t Decided Yet; QCOM Moves Back High-End Smartphone 8 Gen 1

By Patrick Liao

  • We think TSMC is still considering 1) at what time and 2) what technologies to further raise wafer price now.
  • TSMC’s largest client is Apple. Qualcomm should be the 2nd client because they will ship Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 from TSMC in 4Q22. Nvidia/MediaTek are the 3rd/4th clients. 
  • TSMC is giving nearly 49% stock ownership to Sony for CMOS Image Sensor (CIS) Fab in Japan. It is mainly to obtain the CIS technology, to our thoughts. 

KODEX (FnGuide) Battery ETF Rebalancing: Passive Flow Tracking for Two Remaining Days

By Sanghyun Park

  • KODEX battery ETF does rebalancing four times a year from this March. The rebalancing trading is done for 3-trading days from March 14 to 16, presumably equal daily weight.
  • Due to the low float rate, LG Energy will fall to third place. Samsung SDI should become the top constituent with a 20% cap, followed by SK Innovation at 15%.
  • The passive impact sizes of the top four stocks are significant, considering they are in the same sector. So, they should make themselves a suitable target for long/short basket trading.

Merger Arb Mondays – Razer, 51Job, Irongate, Link, Crown Resorts, Guodian

By Arun George


Charts to Watch

By Market Radar

  • The Chinese Government has not been very friendly with the Chinese tech companies in the last year: it imposed several fines and introduced new anti-monopoly laws, that hurt company business and profitability
  • Now the SEC is trying to look better into the balance sheet of these companies, threatening a possible delisting from U.S. exchanges. This is another big risk for chinese tech stocks.
  • An almost 70% drawdown already happened. Will there ever be a reversal?

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Silergy Corp, Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Silergy (6415.TT): Earnings Conference for 4Q21- The Demand Is Strong for 2022~23.
  • ECM Weekly (13th Mar 2022)-Arrail, Aquila, Propguru, Ferretti, Jinmao, Nio, Fabindia, Hyu Hvy, Cosmo

Silergy (6415.TT): Earnings Conference for 4Q21- The Demand Is Strong for 2022~23.

By Patrick Liao

  • Silergy foresees the demand will be larger than capacity in 2022. Silergy expects Auto, Sever Mother-board, SSD and others should be showing a strong demand in 2022.
  • The shipment lead-time is controlled around 5~6 months, which indicated that the demand is strong for 2022~23.
  • The generation 3rd will be optimized until 2026. Silergy will need some new suppliers for generation 4th in 2023. In 2026, generation 3rd & 4th will dominate Silergy’s revenue. 

ECM Weekly (13th Mar 2022)-Arrail, Aquila, Propguru, Ferretti, Jinmao, Nio, Fabindia, Hyu Hvy, Cosmo

By Sumeet Singh


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Alibaba Group, Grab, Cialfo, Softbank Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • China ADRs Delisting – SEC Sets the Clock Ticking and Sends China ADRs Tripping
  • Grab (GRAB US) – A Rough Ride for Now but Smoother Terrain Ahead
  • Tiger Global Leads $20m Series B Extension of Singapore Edtech Firm
  • Softbank Group – China Worries Re-Surface as Alibaba, Didi Under Pressure

China ADRs Delisting – SEC Sets the Clock Ticking and Sends China ADRs Tripping

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 8th Mar 2022, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) added five China ADR names to its provisional list of issuers under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).
  • There is nothing new about the list, on 2nd Dec 2021, SEC had issued final amendments to implement the HFCAA which had already spoken about the list and its implications.
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the latest developments its possible timelines and implications.

Grab (GRAB US) – A Rough Ride for Now but Smoother Terrain Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The headlines for Grab‘s recent results looked encouraging but the higher driver and consumer incentives hit revenues and profitability towards the end of the year but this is temporary.
  • Grab (GRAB US) is facing stiffer competition in the region, especially from GoTo and Shopee Food but is defending its lead and preparing for higher growth in mobility requiring investment.
  • Increasing exposure in digital financial services plus more focus on verticals such as online groceries bodes well for future growth. A market cap of US$12.5bn with US$6.8bn in net cash.

Tiger Global Leads $20m Series B Extension of Singapore Edtech Firm

By Tech in Asia

  • Cialfo, a Singapore-based edtech startup, has raised another US$20 million in series B funding led by US-based investment firm Tiger Global after it raised US$40 million in January this year.
  • In total, the company has raised US$77 million in funding to date. VentureCap Insights pegged the firm’s valuation at around US$230 million.
  • Founded by Rohan Pasari, Stanley Chia, and William Hund in 2017, Cialfo is a software-as-a-service firm that simplifies the career exploration and college search process.

Softbank Group – China Worries Re-Surface as Alibaba, Didi Under Pressure

By Kirk Boodry

  • Both Alibaba (-6%) and Didi (-12% pre-market) are down on regulatory pressure 
  • Vision Fund valuation losses are approaching $20bn for Q4 and the current (unrealized) portfolio has turned negative
  • NAV/Share and the share price are at two-year lows and gains from the post-Covid tech run are largely gone

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: PropertyGuru , Link Administration Holdings, Capcom Co Ltd, Square Enix Holdings, Crowdstrike Holdings Inc, Koei Tecmo Holdings, GitLab, Epam Systems and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • PropertyGuru/Bridgetown 2 SPAC Listing/Merger – Peers Are Down a Lot, as the Deal Nears Completion
  • Link’s Offer Spread Risk/Reward
  • Capcom – Street Fighter 6 and ExoPrimal Strengthen Pipeline
  • Square Enix – Four Games at State of Play Show Depth of Content
  • Crowdstrike FY4Q22: (Bear) Case Adjourned
  • Koei Tecmo – Some Nice Signs But Downside Risks Need To Be Priced In First
  • Recent IPO Insights: Gitlab
  • Deep Dive: EPAM Systems (EPAM US)

PropertyGuru/Bridgetown 2 SPAC Listing/Merger – Peers Are Down a Lot, as the Deal Nears Completion

By Sumeet Singh

  • PropertyGuru and Bridgetown 2 announced, on 23rd Jul 2021, that they have entered into a business combination agreement which will see PropertyGuru go public in the US. 
  • Both the companies will hold their respective EGMs next week and aim to complete the listing by 18th Mar 2022.
  • We have looked at the company’s prior listing attempt, in Australia in 2019, and the current SPAC merger. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates.

Link’s Offer Spread Risk/Reward

By Arun George

  • Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)’s 1HFY22 results on 24 February stated that the Dye & Durham/DND’s privatisation scheme remains on track to complete in June/July. 
  • Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. Key catalysts are the scheme booklet (in the coming weeks) and an agreement to sell BCM. 
  • We would be buyers up to A$5.2 per share (implies 70% deal probability). The gross and annualised spread for a 31 July implementation is 8.6% and 23.8%, respectively. 

Capcom – Street Fighter 6 and ExoPrimal Strengthen Pipeline

By Mio Kato

  • Following on from a recent Street Fighter 6 reveal, Capcom announced new IP Exoprimal at today’s Sony State of Play. 
  • The two announcements strengthen Capcom’s pipeline for FY23 and FY24 although leaks had already revealed the likely launch timing of SF6. 
  • Exoprimal is new news, however, and provides a glimpse into Capcom’s strategic thinking.

Square Enix – Four Games at State of Play Show Depth of Content

By Mio Kato

  • Square Enix had four of the twelve titles featured at today’s Sony State of Play. 
  • While none of the titles was one of they IPs for Square Enix they demonstrate the depth of IP possessed. 
  • In addition, the trailers point to Square Enix’s domestic development studios maintaining high quality standards even for smaller titles.

Crowdstrike FY4Q22: (Bear) Case Adjourned

By Aaron Gabin

  • Crowdstrike printed a superb quarter, continues to beat and raise despite overblown competitive concerns with new disclosures around non-endpoint ARR shows this becoming a true platform.
  • Revenue growth (+63%), Margin expansion (+570bps) and FCF generation (46% FCF margins) shows best in class rule of 40 SaaS metric.
  • Next catalyst is Analyst Day in April, expect LT targets to get increased.

Koei Tecmo – Some Nice Signs But Downside Risks Need To Be Priced In First

By Mio Kato

  • Koei Tecmo appears to have made some strides in improving the quality of Stranger of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origins.
  • This bodes well for the future of its business effectively reskinning its in-house titles with popular outside IPs.
  • This makes us more interested in the name but we are still waiting for the shoe to drop on investment income.

Recent IPO Insights: Gitlab

By Aaron Gabin

  • Gitlab is down 61% since its IPO and trades at 16x forward sales, now reasonable for years of 40% like growth expected.
  • At $6B valuation, would make an attractive acquisition candidate for Google/Amazon or some of the growing DevSecOps players like Datadog.
  • Dynamic TAM with long runway ahead, very underpenetrated, strong secular tailwinds.

Deep Dive: EPAM Systems (EPAM US)

By Value Punks

  • EPAM is a high quality IT services provider that has been compounding earnings at a high rate for the last 10 years
  • The stock is currently dislocated – down more than 70% as of the date of writing.
  • EPAM’s delivery centers are distributed throughout the world but have a major presence in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia (clients are mostly based in the US and Europe).

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: StarTek, Bilibili Inc, Upstart Holdings Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Startek Inc. – SRT US 55% Owner Proposes $5.40 Cash Per Share Squeeze Out
  • Bilibili: All Things Point to Slowdown in Earnings Growth
  • Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks
  • Upstart Holdings: Slowdown In Revenue Growth And Tightening Of Credit Markets

Startek Inc. – SRT US 55% Owner Proposes $5.40 Cash Per Share Squeeze Out

By John DeMasi

  • Singapore-Based private equity firm Capital Square Partners (“CSP”) engineered combination of Aegis Global and “old” Startek in 2018 to create “new” Startek.
  • Microcap business process outsourcing (“BPO”) company runs outsourced customer contact centers, has improving sales and profitability, and a declining stock price.
  • On 20December2021, CSP disclosed that it had submitted a “preliminary, non-binding proposal” to acquire all outstanding shares of SRT US not already owned by it for $5.40 per share.

Bilibili: All Things Point to Slowdown in Earnings Growth

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Bilibili Inc (BILI US) reported 4Q2021 results last week where revenues increased 50.6% YoY to RMB 5.8bn while operating losses increased to RMB 2bn compared to RMB 903m in 4Q2020.
  • This marks the lowest YoY growth in top line since 2Q2019. Though all segments experienced YoY growth in revenue, we have observed that the growth is slowing down.
  • The company also has announced a share buyback of up to US$500m of its ADS over the next 24 months

Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

By Arun George

  • Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US) is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. 
  • Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. 
  • While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. 

Upstart Holdings: Slowdown In Revenue Growth And Tightening Of Credit Markets

By Andrei Zakharov

  • We see limited upside potential for Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)  shares after reporting a record 200%+ YoY revenue growth rate in CY’21.   
  • Our calculations suggest insiders sold ~$1.5 billion worth of Upstart shares since August 2020, including Third Point, CEO of Upstart Holdings, and management of the fintech company. 
  • Rising interest rates and tightening of credit markets may negatively impact revenue, keeping in mind that Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)  primarily facilitates unsecured personal loans on the platform.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: AfreecaTV, Upstart Holdings Inc, Weibo Corp, Infosys Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Combined Rebalancing Flow Estimations of Three Indexes in Korea on March 10
  • Upstart Holdings: Focus on the Share Buyback & Outstanding Growth of AI Driven Lending Platform
  • Weibo (WB US): Solid 4Q21 Results; Winter Olympics to Bolster User Engagement
  • Pick of the Week: Infosys Ltd

Combined Rebalancing Flow Estimations of Three Indexes in Korea on March 10

By Sanghyun Park

  • Three local indexes in Korea face rebalancing trading on March 10, supposedly at the close.
  • They are 1. KOSPI 200 Fast Entry for LG Energy Solution, 2. KOSPI Size Index Series biannual rebalancing, and 3. KRX BBIG K-New Deal biannual rebalancing.
  • There are 18 stocks in total, which have an estimated passive flow of ±0.5x ADTV & an average daily trade value of +₩5.0B.

Upstart Holdings: Focus on the Share Buyback & Outstanding Growth of AI Driven Lending Platform

By Douglas Kim

  • We believe that Upstart’s share price has been excessively oversold since October 2021. Since its highs in October 2021, Upstart’s share price has declined significantly by nearly 72%.
  • The combination of buying back shares, more attractive valuations, and a much stronger sales growth than its peers is likely to result in Upstart outperforming the market this year.
  • Our base case valuation of Upstart is implied market cap of $13.8 billion and target price of $165 per share, which is 47% higher than current share price.

Weibo (WB US): Solid 4Q21 Results; Winter Olympics to Bolster User Engagement

By Roger Xie

  • Weibo Corp (WB US) reported a set of solid results for 4Q21; ad revenue (excluding Alibaba) has post robust 28% year-over-year growth and MAU remains healthy.
  • Weibo is leveraging its competences to increase user engagement. Weibo video account has amassed 25mn users; Weibo Live’s DAU has grown 100% year-over-year.
  • Weibo current valuation 10x forward P/E looks attractive; we expect 1Q22 user engagement will improve given that topics on Winter Olympics has already exceeded Toyko Olympics.

Pick of the Week: Infosys Ltd

By Axis Direct

  • Infosys is India’s second largest IT services exporter and has strong global presence. 
  • It provides industry wide solutions including next gen services like Cloud computing, digital transformations, IoT, Machine learning etc
  • We recommend a Buy the stock for a target price of Rs 1895 implying an upside of 10% from CMP.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Tata Consultancy Svcs, Coinbase, Elastic NV, JCET Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2.4bn Mega Buyback – Letter of Offer Out; TCS Cheap Vs Peers
  • Coinbase: Q4 Results KPI Deck
  • Q3 FY’22 Earnings Review: Spectacular Revenue Growth Driven By The Cloud Business
  • JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2.4bn Mega Buyback – Letter of Offer Out; TCS Cheap Vs Peers

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In early February 2022, Indian IT giant Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) officially announced a INR180bn (~US$2.4bn) Buyback which is one of the largest in Indian stock market history.
  • Today the company published the Letter of Offer confirming the final details and the expected timeline for this Buyback.
  • Below is a closer look at these details and their implications for shareholders.

Coinbase: Q4 Results KPI Deck

By Alec Tseung

  • Coinbase reported strong Q4 results mainly driven by a significant increase in its transaction revenue.
  • Bearish outlook in Q1’22 and FY22 due to the higher expense guidance from the management and declining crypto asset price and volatility in Q1.
  • Albeit the bearish outlook, we continue to view that Coinbase represents one of the best ways for public equity investors to gain exposure to the growing crypto economy. 

Q3 FY’22 Earnings Review: Spectacular Revenue Growth Driven By The Cloud Business

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Elastic NV (ESTC US) , a leading search technology company, reported strong Q3 FY’22 results that topped estimates. Cloud revenue surged 79% year-over-year, and free cash flow was ~$3M. 
  • Elastic NV (ESTC US)  shares underperformed in CY’22, with shares down ~37% YTD versus a ~29% loss on the WCLD – WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund. 
  • Shares of Elastic jumped to ~$87.00/share after the company reported third-quarter earnings the previous week, but then the stock erased early gains due to broader sell-off in tech shares. 

JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

By Patrick Liao

  • The 1st quarter is relatively a lower season. Therefore, we expect that the revenue/NM is about RMB$8. 7bn/9.0% in 1Q22 respectively, which declines ~10% QoQ and grow 30% YoY. 
  • To our understanding, QCOM is still the biggest client in JCET. The rest of clients have changing a bit in JCET since Huawei was being driven out.
  • Overall speaking, China is devoted in developing OSAT (Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Packaging) business, and the gap shall be close to ASEH and Amkor. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma