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• Razer Inc (1337 HK)‘s Scheme was comfortably voted through by shareholders.  
• The overarching risk to the transaction, that it may fail the headcount test, largely turned out to be a storm in a tea cup. 
• Tomorrow is the last day of trading with payment under the Scheme on or before the 20 May. Index sell flows come at the close. 

• Razer Inc (1337 HK)’s scheme was approved at today’s court meeting. The value test passed with 94.74% of the total disinterested shareholders voting in favour of the scheme.
• Despite our reservations about the headcount test, the scheme comfortably passed the headcount test with 465 for and just 16 against the scheme. 
• At the last close and for the 20 May payment date, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 3.7% and 56.1%, respectively.

• Flexible printed board player AKM Industrial (1639 HK) has announced the pre-conditions attached to the Scheme have now been fulfilled.
• The despatch of the Scheme Document has been delayed until the 10 June. 
• Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 2.5/9.6%, including the FY21 final dividend, and payment in early August.

• This insight focuses on private unicorns backed by Sea Ltd (SE US) , Walmart (WMT US) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) & Prosus NV (PROSY US) 
• Growth would require new and even larger investments across the Internet Sector.  
• Reliance and Tata’s retail plans are likely to challenge even giants like Amazon and Flipkart.

• Koei Tecmo’s earnings yesterday were on the strong side with 4Q OP beating by 28.7% despite a 1.79% miss at the top line. 
• Thus, the typical pattern of heavy expensing of development costs in 4Q was missing and combined with some one offs could make hurdles for next year high. 
• With the stock struggling to gain positive momentum and few clear positive catalysts on the horizon we remain negative.

• The S&P BSE family of indices represents the performance of stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) across various sizes, themes, industries, and strategies.
• This series will mainly focus on the following indices of the S&P BSE family: S&P BSE 500, S&P BSE 200, S&P BSE 100, and S&P BSE SENSEX.
• In this insight, we take a look at the leading candidates who could become Adds/Deletes during the June 2022 Semi-annual Rebalance.

• According to Bloomberg, Bain Capital-backed Chindata Group (CD US) is being scoped out by industry players.
• GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) is rumoured to be interested in merging with Chindata. PE outfit PAG and EQT AB (EQT SS)-backed EdgeConneX are also, reportedly, in the mix.
• Chindata’s shares popped but are still 64% below its IPO price. This rumour follows data center provider 21Vianet (VNET US)‘s recent proposal from Hina Group and Shanghai’s Industrial Bank. 

• Omron’s 4Q results continued the trend of weakness in the FA sector and guidance was tepid unlike Yaskawa. 
• In particular, the Healthcare Segment’s margins appear to be normalising and poses a downside risk along with typical cyclicality. 
• At 14x EV/OP on guidance vs. a 10x multiple that we would consider fair, there is downside risk here.

• Chindata Group (CD US) is a leading carrier-neutral hyperscale data center solution provider in Asia Pacific emerging markets with a focus on China, India and Southeast Asia.
• Bloomberg and several other news media outlets reported that the company has attracted takeover interest from other firms in the industry including rival GDS and PAG.
• CD’s shares are down more than 65% since its IPO primarily driven by the ongoing regulatory crackdown on tech firms in China alongside US-China trade tensions.

• Giverny Capital Asset Management, LLC is a partnership between GivernyCapital of Montreal and David Poppe, the former president and chief executive officer of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb, LLC.
• The best companies tend to weather crises better than average ones, Poppe says.

• Razer Inc (1337 HK)‘s Court Meeting will be held tomorrow.
• The highly anticipated abolishment of the headcount test will not become law ahead of the shareholder vote.
• Trading at a gross spread of 8%, unchanged since the record date. That’s positive. Plus this Offer has proxy advisor support.

• A Bloomberg article claimed that Chindata Group (CD US) is attracting takeover interest from GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US), PAG and EdgeConneX. Shares rose 9.8% to close at $4.81.
• Potential privatisation will require the blessing of Bain Capital, the largest shareholder. Chindata’s track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and the beaten-down rating make it a target. 
• A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x, in line with 21Vianet Group (VNET US)’s proposed acquisition multiple, would imply $6.85 per ADS. 

• Valorant’s Masters 1 Tournament concluded today in Iceland with North America’s Optic Gaming defeating Brazil’s Loud, leaving Japan’s Zeta Division in third place. 
• These are three key regions for viewership and Japan’s surprising performance bodes well for the esports scene in the country. 
• Gameplay for Valorant Mobile has also leaked and early indications are that Krafton could be cannibalised here.

• AKM Industrial (1639 HK)’s privatisation offer from Alpha Luck and AKM Meadville of HK$1.8345 consists of a base offer (HK$1.82) and a final dividend (HK1.45 cent).
• The pre-condition was fulfilled on 22 April. The latest date for the despatch of the scheme document has been extended to 10 June. 
• Shareholders with blocking stakes have previously provided irrevocables. At last close and for an early-August effective date, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 3.1% and 10.7%, respectively.

• Tencent (700 HK) will announce its first quarter 2021 results on 18th May 2022.
• Since 3Q2021, Tencent’s earnings have started to decelerate, and the previous quarter marked the slowest ever revenue growth for the company since 2004.
• We expect Tencent’s earnings weakness to continue well into 1H2022E due to slowdown in online games and online advertising businesses.  

• Revenue fell 0.4% QoQ in USD CC terms in 4QFY22, but was above our estimate of -1.1% QoQ USD CC.
• The beat was led by both Services (+1.6% QoQ USD CC) and DLM (-9.3% QoQ USD).
• Growth in Services was driven by Portfolio (10% QoQ), Aerospace (3.9%), and Communications (3.5%), while growth in Rail Transportation (-9.5%) was weak.

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• While we have underweighted the IT sector (Report) HCL Technologies (HCLT) is a preferred pick due to (1) Significant narrowing of growth differential in FY23 despite disappointment on revenue guidance – vis-à-vis Indian Tier-1 growth leader Infosys.
• We also see modest acceleration in FY23 while most Tier-1 peers will see deceleration
• Our view that underlying growth in Products and Platforms (P&P) business is positive…(continued).

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• Crypto complex rose mid-week but ended the week down after Powell confirmed market’s expectation of 50bps hike in May 
• Uncorrelated to the rest of market, ApeCoin (APE CURNCY)  continues to grind higher in anticipation of Yugalab’s Land mint event on April 30th, possibly the largest NFT mint in history 
• Coinbase (COIN US) launched a beta version of its NFT marketplace as direct competition to the $13bn dollar Opensea; and much more

• SSG.com is getting ready for an IPO in 2H 2022/1H 2023. Local media have mentioned that SSG.com is targeting a valuation of 10 trillion won for the company.
• We believe SSG.com would need to cut the valuation by at least 50% (5 trillion won) in order to complete its IPO. 
• We believe valuation levels of 11st would need to come down significantly in the 2 trillion won to 3 trillion won range in order for an IPO to be completed. 

• ASE Holding revenue was NTD$144.4bn in 1Q22, which was 20.9% YoY and -16.5% QoQ. We expect the GM is 19.5% in 1Q22.
• ASE Holding could target at NTD$148.1bn/20.5% GM in 2Q22. We expect the gross margin of IC ATM and EMS portions are around 26.8%/9.1% respectively.
• We think it should be picking up since 2Q22 because of the seasonality, and it’s likely to peak out until 4Q22.

• The bullish breakout on the VIX Index looks similar to January
• Further gains are expected, probably this week and as we enter May
• As a consequence expect continued losses on the S&P 500

• The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law which increases the odds that the headcount test remains for Razer Inc (1337 HK)‘s court meeting on 26 April. 
• Since the despatch of the scheme document, the gross spread has narrowed to 7.6% (last close). Current deal probability implies an 80% chance of success.
• The rising deal probability negatively skews the risk/reward profile. We are hesitant to be long this trade into a scheme meeting that is too close to call.

• The Strategy underperformed during a pronounced rotation out of higher-growth companies due to investor de-risking and a less accommodative macro backdrop.
• We used opportunities created by heightened volatility to establish seven new positions while exiting eight other names to increase conviction in stocks with more attractive risk/reward profiles.

• ClearBridge is a leading global asset manager committed to active management.
• The Strategy’s overweight in growth and smaller cap stocks caused it to endure the worst of the selling pressure facing these areas.

• A sharp spike in bond yields pressured growth stocks and weighed on Strategy performance against its core benchmark, where leadership was decidedly one-sided in favor of value.
• Nevertheless, we remain positive on areas like the IT sector and have largely maintained holdings in our highest-conviction ideas.

• ClearBridge is a leading global asset manager committed to active management.
• Research-based stock selection guides our investment approach, with our strategies reflecting the highest-conviction ideas of our portfolio managers.
• Recent underperformance was driven by stock selection, where earnings shortfalls impacted several names in communication services and technology.

• Revenue of HK$5.27 billion (US$674.8 million), +21.5% YoY and -15.1% QoQ, was at the high end of revenue guidance issued in 1Q22.
• Revenue guidance was US$670 million to US$740 million, which was +5.8% YoY and +4.5% QoQ at mid-point in Q2 2022.
• Usually, the 1st quarter is the weakest of the year. The booking magnitude might be showing how is the industry customers’ confidence now. 

• Cyient reported robust Q4FY22 results with revenue for the quarter at Rs 1,181 Cr, declined by 0.2 % QoQ and improved by 8.1% YoY. Operating Margins improved by 60bps QoQ to 14.5%.
• Services operating margins de-grew by 20bps QoQ to 15.4% while the DLM margins stood at 9.8% the quarter before being aided by strong execution
• We recommend a BUY on the stock and assign a 17x P/E multiple to the company’s FY24E earnings of Rs 60.0/share to arrive at A TP of Rs 1,000/share, implying an upside of 20% from CMP.

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• HCL Technologies Ltd (HCL Tech) Q4FY22 performance stood in line with our expectations.
• The company reported revenues of Rs 22,597 Cr, up 1.1% QoQ and 15.1% YoY.
• We recommend a BUY rating on the stock and assign a 20x P/E multiple to its FY24E earnings of Rs 67.4/share to arrive at a TP of Rs 1,345/share, indicating an upside of 22% from the CMP.

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• ClearBridge is a leading global asset manager committed to active management.
• The market now has a clear call to action to solve the dual challenges of energy security and energy transition, requiring serious capital spending and innovation.
• We added to defensive sectors including utilities and health care, looking for true diversification with low price correlations and lower price volatility.

• Zhihu Technology (ZH US) raised around US$106m via a dual primary listing in Hong Kong. 
• Unlike all the prior dual primary/secondary listings which have been done via offering either only primary or a mix of primary+secondary shares, Zhihu’s offering will consist of only secondary shares.
• In this note, we’ll talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Skyrocketing material costs shook the stock of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) as investors wiped billions of dollars off the value of the world’s largest electric-vehicle battery manufacturer.
• Word circulated in the market that CATL is set to post net profit of less than 5 billion yuan for the first quarter, a sharp decline from the previous quarter.
• The company hasn’t issued detailed financials for the fourth quarter and all of 2021. An estimate issued in January put annual net profit between 14 billion yuan and 16.5 billion yuan.

• The strong dollar has boosted Softbank’s predominantly dollar-linked asset value by 9% in yen terms (although reported net debt will also increase)
• Also relevant is a decrease in the dollar cost of its ¥1,000bn share repurchase which was $8.8bn when announced but costs less than $8bn at the current exchange rate.
• This has kept the share price up YTD and QTD despite weakness in the investment portfolio but tech weakness probably has more legs than dollar appreciation

• Mediatek revenue was NTD$142.7bn in 1Q22, which was 32.1% YoY and 10.9% QoQ. It was higher than the prior high-end guidance of $NTD141.5bn.
• The 2nd quarter outlook could be slight growth of NTD$148.9bn/49.1% GM, which could be not much growth expected.
• The expectation of the 5G deployment could be a bit slower because of COVID-19 impact and slow down in China handset shipment. 

• Several news media outlets report that ByteDance has launched a new music streaming service in China called Qishui Yinyue.
• Tencent Music (TME US) earnings have come under pressure with ending of exclusive music streaming licensing deals and increased regulatory pressure on its social entertainment biz.
• We expect TME’s 1Q2022E earnings to decline further with increased competition and drop in social entertainment.

• LTI reported a growth of 3.6% QoQ CC on a high base, below our estimate of 4.2%.
• Growth was broad-based across verticals and service lines.
• EBIT margin moderated by 60bp QoQ to 17.3% in 4QFY22 (inline) due to lower working days and revenue mix

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• ApeCoin (APE CURNCY) the $4.5bn market cap token is up over 30% this week while the market continues to trade sideways 
• The main upcoming catalyst is the Yugalabs metaverse land mint event that is expected to be on April 23rd, the 1 year anniversary of Yugalabs. 
• Yugalabs is the team behind Bored Ape Yacht Club, and is at the forefront of NFT development. So the market is eagerly awaiting the land mint

• The stock has been hit by rising inflation and interest rates. Now is the time to buy
• Keyence is well placed to weather the storm given it has pricing power, high margins, and low capital intensity
• The P/B valuation of 6x is now back to a normalised range and the stock trades at a discount to global peers. 

• Superapp GoTo (GOTO IJ) made its public debut on the Indonesian Stock Exchange on 11th April. The company set the final IPO price at IDR338 per share.  
• GoTo’s shares surged nearly 23% to IDR416 a piece on the open, boosting the company’s market cap to more than IDR497trn.
• GoTo’s share price has continued to slide and our SOTP valuation suggests that there is further downside.

• Tencent short call at 390-400 is a hold but needs to break below the 351 low for bear traction toward our downside targets at 333 and 320 (bull zone).
• The current flat/trapped range shows resistance at 382 and pivot support at 351/350. Below 350 would open the way lower.
• Re test of the low zone is a buying opportunity for a rally to the 320-30 macro barrier. HK tech index sub 4k buy zone is our long counter balance.

We view Meituan as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale, given the company’s: [1] leading market positions in China’s food delivery as well as the in-store, hotel & travel accommodation industries; [2] increasing market share and scale, which should drive operating leverage; and [3] robust balance sheet, with net cash and a strong liquidity position. Meituan benefits from regulations that restrict aggressive pricing to gain market share. In addition, the company has fast-growing revenue streams across its business segments. However, the credit profile is weighed down by: [1] regulatory headwinds in the food delivery business; and [2] the ongoing losses and cash burn from the company’s community group-buying business.

Our Credit Bias is “Stable”, given the robust business risk profile and strong balance sheet.

• This channel insight focuses on private unicorns backed by Blackrock Inc (BLK US), Tencent (700 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK).
• There are indications of organic growth slowing down. Cash burn is probably the only possible way to cross the high operating performance seen during COVID.  
• Investor pressure is mounting, leading to mass hiring or firing in the Industry. 

• MTCL reported a revenue of USD384m (+5.2% QoQ CC) in 4QFY22.
• Reported revenue grew 4.8% (inline), driven by broad-based growth across verticals and regions.
• Deal TCV rose 9% QoQ to USD390m in 4QFY22.

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• Mindtree’s (MTCL) 4QFY22 revenue at US$383.8mn, grew by 5.2% QoQ in CC terms, marking 6th consecutive quarter of 5%+ growth, but was tad lower than our estimate of 6%.
• EBIT margin of ~18.9% was in line, contracting by 30bps QoQ.
• TCV of ~US$390mn (US$375mn in 4QFY21) reflects the need for pick-up in order inflow…(continued).

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• PB Fintech (PBF) is among the leading insurance and lending intermediaries in India.
• It operates principally through its platforms PolicyBazaar/PaisaBazaar, and has also entered into newer businesses.
• PBF is well placed to benefit from the rising insurance penetration in India, especially through digital distribution.

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• Mindtree (MTCL) has reported revenue growth of over 5% QoQ (CC) for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q4FY22.
• Revenue stood at US$384mn, growing at 5.2% QoQ (CC) and 4.8% QoQ (US$) (Isec: 4.9%, Cons: 4.3%).
• Margin performance was impressive with EBIT margin at 18.9%, -30bps QoQ (Isec: 18.1%, Cons: 18.8%), above our estimates.

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• Kakao Pay’s six months end of the lock-up period comes up on 3 May, which could further put negative pressure on its share price. 
• Other factors including heightened competition, lack of margin improvement in 2021, and lifting nearly all social distancing measures in Korea are likely to further negatively impact Kakao Pay. 
• We expect additional 20 to 30%+ downside risk for Kakao Pay from current levels over the next 6-12 months. 

• WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) is looking to raise approximately US$190m in its Primary GDS offering to repay foreign currency denominated debt and for procuring raw materials in foreign currencies. 
• While we can’t explicitly state that the deal is well-flagged, the firm has seen its gearing ratio increase and CFO was negative in its latest financial year.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• On Monday, Bloomberg reported that Larsen & Toubro (LT IN) was planning a merger between its public-listed subsidiaries Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN) and Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI IN). 
• The companies have responded by saying that the news reports of a merger between MINDTREE and LTI are “speculative in nature“.
• Below is a closer look at the likelihood of this Deal and the valuations of the two companies involved in this event.

• The Oakmark Select Fund declined 6% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to a 5% decline in the S&P 500.
• The Oakmarks Select Fund is based on a disciplined quantitative and qualitative screening process, according to the company’s research process.

• This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  
• They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.
• These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.

• Amkor Technology manufactures and sells advanced semiconductor equipment.
• They make semiconductor packaging and test services for leading semiconductor companies such as Intel, Samsung, AMD, and etc
• The overall semiconductor industry has been growing, and Amkor’s revenue has been growing nicely as well.

• Mindtree reported strong revenue growth of 5.4% QoQ and stood at Rs 2,897 Cr in Q4FY22, reporting revenue growth of 49.1% YoY.
• The company posted operating profits of Rs 608 Cr, registering a growth of 2.7% QoQ, demonstrating the company’s superior execution and better service mix
• We recommend a BUY on the stock and assign 35x P/E multiple to its FY24E earnings of Rs 135.8/share to arrive at a TP of Rs 4,830/share, implying an upside potential of 22% from CMP.

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• A bit over a year ago Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) announced its transaction to buy Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR) for €4.8bn (roughly ¥624bn) and the transaction closed end-August 2021.
• In September, Renesas announced a “Progress Update” covering various business segments, expectations for supply in the sector, and eventual “shareholder return” policy.
• This past week the Nikkei carried an article talking about a possible stock buyback later this year. I explore.

• Nikkei reported that Meituan intends to pay better compensation to small-and-medium restaurants and to delivery workers to prove that the company is in line with Beijing’s common prosperity measures.
• As Shanghai is under strict Covid lockdown, Meituan has seen a sharp rise in demand for grocery deliveries, however, margins are expected to be thin due to additional costs.
• The company has been under tremendous pressure to improve its cost structure and is undertaking 10-20% job cuts across all its business units.

• One Store revised its IPO filings, changing the comps but maintaining the same price range of 34,300 won to 41,700 won.
• The bankers used new comps in the valuation analysis (Tencent, Naver, Kakao Corp, and Nexon). The P/S multiple is slightly higher than previously but IPO discount range is also higher.
• Our target price of 48,713 won is 28% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range of 38,000 won. 

• Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.
• Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.
• The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.

• Twitter Inc (TWTR US) announced a poison pill in a press release Friday with details in an 8-K Monday. It will dividend out one right/share on record date 25 April. 
• The right would allow Rightsholders, under certain conditions, to purchase $420 of shares for $210. That number is not a coincidence. 
• Some will get upset by this, but there is a lot of fine print. And I review how the poison pill fits into Delaware hostile defence standards.

• ONE Store (ONE KS) is looking to raise up to US$228m in its Korean IPO.
• One Store delayed its bookbuild by two weeks, with book building slated to run between 9th-10th May 2022. Listing, as well, has been pushed back to end May.
• Peers have slightly corrected since our last note and in our view, from a historical perspective, the low end seems justified.

• Infosys 4Q disappoints; Downgrade cycle upon us sooner than expected (INFY) reported US$4,280mn revenue for 4QFY22 (below our estimate of US$4,407mn) reflects ~1.2% growth QoQ in CC terms against our estimate of 4.3%.
• EBIT margin at ~21.5% (our estimate: ~23%) declined by 200bps QoQ.
• INFY attributed this weakness in revenue to seasonality (fewer working days), Covid impact and a one-off issue connected with a certain client (~100bps)…(continued).

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• Infosys Ltd (Infy) reported Q4FY22 revenue of Rs 32,276 Cr, up 1.3% QoQ and 0.8% QoQ (in CC terms) which was below our expectations.
• The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 6,956 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 7.3% on a QoQ basis.
• We recommend a BUY rating on the stock and assign a 29x P/E multiple to its FY24E earnings of Rs 71/share to arrive at a TP of Rs 2,060/share, implying an upside of 18% from the CMP.

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• NTGR spent the Q12022 reducing channel inventory of lower priced wireless routers, but there is still a lack of catalyst for consumers to upgrade after buying a router in 2020
• NTGR’s balance sheet makes the stock look attractive at current levels, but the first quarter has too many variables to push us off the sidelines
• During the first quarter of 2022 it was visible the degree of discounting NTGR had undertaken in the channel to remove lower priced wireless routers, or sub $299 price point

• Q4FY22 operating performance missed our expectations.
• Revenues grew by a mere 1.2% QoQ CC, while EBITM declined 190bps to 21.6%.
• Operating performance remained weak due to seasonality, a Covid-related impact in the early part of the quarter and a clientrelated contractual provision (likely to be recovered in FY23).

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• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).
• This week, the highest gross spreads are Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU), Razer Inc (1337 HK).  
• The lowest gross spreads are China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK), Virtus Health (VRT AU), 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Irongate Group (IAP AU). 

• The CPI print was the highest in 40 years which will inevitably lead to rate hikes and quantitative tightening
• QT is extremely negative for any long-duration assets such as crypto and growth stocks 
• Nonetheless, the underlying growth of crypto is helping BTC to defend 40k and ETH to defend 3k