Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Advantest Corp, Rightmove PLC, SK Inc, Sino American Silicon Products, Weibo , Intel Corp, Jabil Circuit, Maximus Inc, Exlservice Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • The Biggish Sep 2024 “Thursday-Friday Trade”
  • REA’s Improved Terms For Rightmove
  • Why MBK’s Move into Local Hostile Takeover Scene Matters: Focus on SK Inc and Lotte Corp
  • Sino-American Silicon GDR Offering – Relatively Large One to Digest, Although Discount Is Attractive
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)
  • REA/Rightmove: Third Proposal Seems Close to Fair Value
  • Qualcomm’s Game-Changing Play: What Intel’s Acquisition Could Mean for the Future of Tech!
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Sep-2024): Taiwan’s energy policy faces EU pressure on localization.
  • Maximus Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Transition to Medicaid Enterprise Systems As A Critical Pivot & Other Major Drivers
  • ExlService Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion of Analytics and Healthcare Services & Other Major Drivers


The Biggish Sep 2024 “Thursday-Friday Trade”

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Thursday and Friday. There is some funkiness to Monday too.
  • There is meaningful directional buying on one day, which then kind of gets stretched a bit. This year, circumstances suggest high confidence buying should be at the top end.
  • This year, because circumstances, I expect the trade is a lot larger than last year. I’d say ¥1.6trln. 

REA’s Improved Terms For Rightmove

By David Blennerhassett

  • Rightmove PLC (RMV LN), UK’s largest real estate portal, has twice rejected REA Group Ltd (REA AU) cash/scrip non-binding Offers this month.
  • REA has upped terms to 341 pence + 0.0422 new REA shares per Rightmove share, or 770p/share, a 39% premium. If completed, Rightmove’s shareholders would own ~20.1% of the MergeCo.
  • Thrice rejected? I think Rightmove should engage. REA also has until the 30th September to make a formal Offer. Or walk away.

Why MBK’s Move into Local Hostile Takeover Scene Matters: Focus on SK Inc and Lotte Corp

By Sanghyun Park

  • The new 100% mandatory tender offer rule could push buyers to lower premiums for major shareholders, potentially increasing hostile takeover attempts as costs get shared with minority shareholders.
  • It looks like MBK is eyeing this situation as a chance to redefine their strategy. This really shows how serious MBK is about the Korea Zinc deal.
  • Watch for top-tier assets available via hostile takeovers, particularly companies like SK Inc and Lotte Corp, where low shareholder stakes may lead to management conflicts.

Sino-American Silicon GDR Offering – Relatively Large One to Digest, Although Discount Is Attractive

By Clarence Chu

  • Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT) is looking to raise US$287m in its GDRs offering. Proceeds will be used to purchase overseas raw materials, repay bank loans and purchase machinery.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal has had a long drawn out approval process. Thus, the deal is a very well flagged one.
  • The deal is a relatively large one to digest at 15.7 days of the stock’s three month ADV.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

By David Mudd


REA/Rightmove: Third Proposal Seems Close to Fair Value

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The Board of Rightmove PLC (RMV LN) will consider REA Group Ltd (REA AU)‘s third proposal (implied value of 770p/share, 39% premium, 20.4x EV/NTM EBITDA, 28x Fwd P/E).
  • Using 21.3x NTM EBITDA (comps) would indicate fair value of 805p, 4.5% increase to  current offer, implying 29.3x P/E, although proforma leverage would increase to 3.6x.
  • REA has not stated that the offer is final. Rightmove investors and Board may require further persuasion, as the implied probability of deal success is just 58%.

Qualcomm’s Game-Changing Play: What Intel’s Acquisition Could Mean for the Future of Tech!

By Baptista Research

  • The semiconductor industry is buzzing with news that Qualcomm, the world leader in smartphone chipsets and wireless technology patents, has approached Intel about a potential acquisition.
  • The Wall Street Journal recently reported on this development, signaling Qualcomm’s ambition to expand beyond its mobile chipset dominance and deepen its reach into the PC and server markets.
  • While the deal remains uncertain and could face significant regulatory hurdles, this move could be transformative for Qualcomm.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Sep-2024): Taiwan’s energy policy faces EU pressure on localization.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Taiwan’s energy policy is challenged by EU pressure on localizing offshore wind, hindering progress in renewable energy development.
  • Recycling technology is repurposing electronic waste components like substrates and circuit boards, reducing environmental impact and promoting sustainability.
  • Google implements DataGemma to improve accuracy in their hallucination-proofing LLM system, using Data Commons for enhanced performance.

Maximus Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Transition to Medicaid Enterprise Systems As A Critical Pivot & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Maximus, a global leader known for managing government programs, recently delivered robust financial results for its fiscal 2024 third quarter.
  • The company showed notable organic growth and revenue expansion across its diversified segments, with total revenue reaching $1.31 billion, marking a 10.6% year-over-year increase.
  • This growth was driven mainly by the U.S. Federal Services segment, which achieved a significant 17.0% revenue increase primarily through expanded clinical programs.

ExlService Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion of Analytics and Healthcare Services & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ExlService Holdings, Inc. has delivered a robust performance in the second quarter of 2024, continuing its upward trajectory in the data and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, an area where the company has been increasingly focusing its resources.
  • The company reported a revenue of $448 million, marking an 11% increase year-over-year, and an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rise of 11% to $0.40.
  • This growth was predominantly propelled by high demand in its Analytics and Digital Operations & Solutions segments.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), PKSHA Technology, Intel Corp, CELSYS, United Microelectronics Corp, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Sea , Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology Co Ltd, Novatek Microelectronics Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.
  • PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024
  • Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.
  • CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC US): The Outlook for 4Q24 Is Somewhat Bearish.
  • SMIC (981.HK): Surviving Amidst a Prolonged US-China Trade War
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues
  • Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales
  • Pre-IPO Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.
  • Among TSMC’s top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
  • Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.

PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024

By Travis Lundy

  • PKSHA is an AI company. It was before this year, and got a boost this past spring. The stock price rose 60% in two weeks in February and March 2024.
  • Then it fell more than 50%. Back to late 2023 levels. High growth, growing into its valuations. Now moving to TSE Prime this week, TOPIX next month. 
  • Impact in days of ADV is lower than impact in Real World Float metrics. There are lots of day-traders. This probably has legs.

Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.

By Neil Campling

  • SAMR would draw out review process for too long for a deal to be approved
  • Intel faces an existential crisis and even the new Foundry division has issues
  • A theoretical deal would have little financial synergy and destroy Qualcomm’s gross margins

CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)

By Travis Lundy

  • 12 days ago, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA published his September version of TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (September 2024). His chosen name was CELSYS (3663 JP), a long-time TSE-Prime inclusion bet. 
  • This week on the 18th, they announced they were going to enter TSE Prime on 25 September. This was a somewhat well-known known. They were interested and had been. 
  • The stock popped 15% the next day. It’s a small cap, but there is a lot of float.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC US): The Outlook for 4Q24 Is Somewhat Bearish.

By Patrick Liao

  • The outlook for 4Q24 appears somewhat bearish at the moment, though it has not been fully defined before the end of October.
  • Taiwanese companies such as MediaTek Inc (2454 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) and Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT) continue to be the main drivers of demand for UMC.
  • On a positive note, there are warnings against overly relying on chips from Chinese manufacturers due to US sanctions.

SMIC (981.HK): Surviving Amidst a Prolonged US-China Trade War

By Patrick Liao

  • SMIC’s revenue might be looking at around US$2bn in 4Q24 and it’s a bit reduction of GM from 3Q24 because of the seasonality at the year end.
  • Since around 2019, US was putting an sanction on China, no matter how the argument is true.
  • SMIC continued delivering 7nm chips, and even the 5nm chips could be further delivered using a similar method, although the yield rate may be a concern.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Qualcomm Eyes Bold, Friendly Intel Acquisition Amid Intel’s Existential Crisis
  • Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last? 
  • Asustek Soars, Uniquely Making Fresh 52-Week Highs Within PC Makers

Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Sea (SE US) owned Shopee has partnered with YouTube to drive GMV growth and resist  competition with TikTok, which has strengthened its regional presence through its stake in Tokopedia,
  • India’s strong shopping appetite was reflected in robust gold purchases in August and high demand for the iPhone 16 launched last week.

Pre-IPO Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Declining customer retention rate indicates that a slowdown in future revenue growth seems inevitable. If revenue growth stagnates, it means Taimei’s business model hasn’t been fully validated by the market.
  • Taimei’s IPO on SSE STAR Market was rejected. This means regulatory authorities don’t recognize Taimei’s core technology/performance prospects. Taimei has to take a step back and list on the HKEX.
  • Post-Investment valuation reached RMB8.1 billion after Series F financing. However, considering the continuous decline in valuation of its peers, we are concerned about Taimei’s future stock price performance after IPO.

Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.

By Patrick Liao

  • Apple (AAPL US) will initially use Novatek’s DDIC (Display Driver IC) for the iPhone 16, but it will soon being replaced largely.
  • In 4Q24, there is a possibility of experiencing a decline, with a potential quarter-over-quarter decrease of approximately 5-10%.
  • The Chinese panel market continues to be a key battleground, and Novatek must navigate these challenges to remain competitive.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Jiangsu Hoperun Software, Fuji Soft Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Mks Instruments and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext Dec 24: East Group Intra-Review Deletion Causes Changes to Expectations
  • Weekly Deals Digest (22 Sep) – Fuji Soft, Elan, Trancom, Seven & I, China TCM, Platinum, K Bank
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Back to Higher Premium Range; ASE Premium Remains Collapsed
  • MKS Instruments Inc: Initiation Of Coverage – Will The Expansion into Artificial Intelligence Server Market Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers


Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext Dec 24: East Group Intra-Review Deletion Causes Changes to Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we have presented our updated rankings for Potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in December 2024.

Weekly Deals Digest (22 Sep) – Fuji Soft, Elan, Trancom, Seven & I, China TCM, Platinum, K Bank

By Arun George


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Back to Higher Premium Range; ASE Premium Remains Collapsed

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +17.5% Premium; Recent Trading Back in the 15-20% Range
  • UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Range, Rising Short Interest in Taiwan
  • ASE: +2.2% Premium; Spiking Short Interest in Taiwan Listed Shares

MKS Instruments Inc: Initiation Of Coverage – Will The Expansion into Artificial Intelligence Server Market Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • MKS Instruments demonstrated robust financial management and strategic positioning in its second-quarter results for the fiscal year 2024.
  • With a reported revenue of $887 million, the company performed at the high end of its guidance, supported by an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53—a figure that not only exceeded their projected high but also included the positive impact of reduced interest expenses from recent financial maneuvers.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fuji Soft Inc, Japan System Techniques Co, Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd., Wex Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749) – As Bain Prepares to Go Higher, KKR Goes Lower
  • Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – Full Report
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Sep-2024): Samsung unlikely to follow Intel’s spinoff.
  • WEX Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – A Focused Approach on Electric Vehicle Market Integration & Other Major Drivers


Fuji Soft (9749) – As Bain Prepares to Go Higher, KKR Goes Lower

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, KKR amended its plans to take over Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) by creating a Two-Tender Scheme, effectively lowering the threshold for eventual success through clearly coercive tactics.
  • 3D (23.46%) and Farallon (9.22%) had already tendered. Contractual terms make it difficult (not impossible) to withdraw. Assuming it goes through, KKR has 32.68%, quasi-negative control. 
  • This revised structure is clearly abusive of minorities and NOT the deal Fuji Soft signed. This should cause Fuji Soft to Change their Opinion. Shareholder (and Bain) Pressure would help.

Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – Full Report

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Japan System Techniques Co., Ltd. (hereafter, JAST or the Company) is an independent system integrator that celebrated its 50th anniversary in March 2023.
  • The Company develops systems for customers across a wide range of industries in a variety of fields, including finance, manufacturing, distribution, services, public services, telecommunications, transportation, and science and technology.
  • It also offers four in-house JAST branded services, including the GAKUEN series of strategic university management systems for the education industry as well as the BankNeo integrated information system for financial institutions. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Sep-2024): Samsung unlikely to follow Intel’s spinoff.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Samsung unlikely to follow Intel in spinning off its foundry business, focusing on their own semiconductor production.
  • Marvell co-founder Sehat Sutardja passes away, leaving a void in the semiconductor industry mourning the loss of a visionary.
  • HTC launches VIVE Focus Vision with advanced XR features for gamers and enterprises, aiming to capture a niche market.

WEX Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – A Focused Approach on Electric Vehicle Market Integration & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • WEX’s Q2 2024 results present a mixed bag of performance and outlooks reflecting challenges alongside achievements.
  • The company registered a record quarterly revenue of $673 million, an 8% year-over-year increase, attributable to growth across all three segments.
  • Adjusted net income per diluted share was $3.91, marking an 8% climb from the previous year.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fuji Soft Inc, Kuaishou Technology, Hexaware Technologies, Lattice Semiconductor, Celebrus Technologies, QD Laser, Shin Zu Shing and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender
  • Kuaishou Placement – US$480m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest
  • Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Lattice Semiconductor
  • Celebrus Leads the Way in Privacy & Real-Time Customer Engagement
  • QD Laser (6613 JP): Coverage Initiation
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Sep-2024): Global AI healthcare market status.


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender

By Arun George

  • KKR has rejigged its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) tender offer into a two-stage offer at an unchanged JPY8,800 price. The first stage has no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The first stage is designed to facilitate KKR’s acquisition of 3D and Farallon shares, which have tendered and will not withdraw their tenders without KKR’s consent.
  • By securing 3D/Farallon’s shares, KKR has effectively blocked a Bain tender offer. Bain could launch a partial offer but it would be constrained by the tradeable share ratio criteria.   

Kuaishou Placement – US$480m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest

By Clarence Chu

  • DCM Investments is looking to raise US$484m via selling its remaining stake in Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).
  • While the current block deal isn’t entirely well flagged per se, it appears that DCM has since been trimming its stake on the open market.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)  is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JPM, Kotak, HSBC, IIFL Securities and Citi.
  • Hexaware Technologies is a global digital and technology services company delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations, as per the company.
  • Its offerings encompass five services, namely Design & Build, Secure & Run, Data & AI, Optimize, and Cloud Services.

Lattice Semiconductor

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • It’s an exciting time when your favorite semiconductor CEO comes out of “retirement” to return as a CEO.
  • Mine is personally Ford Tamer, who drove Inphi to ship the best DSP in the market against much larger competitors at a much faster pace.
  • In my opinion, Inphi was almost a miracle story in semiconductors. It was a literal David versus Goliath, and the man who led the team was Ford.

Celebrus Leads the Way in Privacy & Real-Time Customer Engagement

By Pyari Menon

  • Three areas seeing strong innovation growth in online technologies are identity resolution methods, real-time data collection & personalization technologies and solutions to ensure data compliance and governance. 
  • Celebrus Technologies (CLBS LN) is a micro-cap stock focused on the above areas and excels in real-time first-party data collection where data compliance and governance are critical.
  • Celebrus’ small size and unique expertise in some areas of data privacy and real-time customer engagement makes it a acquisition target for larger MarTech and/or analytics companies.

QD Laser (6613 JP): Coverage Initiation

By Shared Research

  • In FY03/24, revenue was JPY1.2bn (+7.6% YoY), operating loss was JPY604mn (vs operating loss of JPY557mn in FY03/23), recurring loss was JPY601mn (vs recurring loss of JPY547mn in FY03/23), and net loss attributable to owners of the parent was JPY643mn (vs net loss of JPY550mn in FY03/23). In the Laser Device business, revenue from DFB lasers for semiconductor wafer inspection equipment and micromachining equipment grew, as did revenue from prototypes for mass production using quantum dot lasers.
  • In the Visual Information Display business, sales of RETISSA MEOCHECK to medical institutions expanded. On the profit front, the operating loss increased due to inventory write-downs of JPY28mn in the Laser Device business and JPY57mn in the Visual Information Device business.
  • For FY03/25, the company forecasts revenue of JPY1.2bn (-0.2% YoY), operating loss of JPY589mn (vs operating loss of JPY604mn in FY03/24), recurring loss of JPY592mn (vs recurring loss of JPY601mn in FY03/24), and net loss attributable to owners of the parent of JPY596mn (vs net loss of JPY643mn in FY03/24). The company anticipates a tenth consecutive year of operating profit in its Laser Device business thanks to growing adoption.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Sep-2024): Global AI healthcare market status.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Rapid growth in tech and demand for personalized medicine drives need for efficient healthcare solutions.
  • Samsung faces threat as trifold race loss jeopardizes smartphone market lead.
  • ViewSonic’s AI technology displays target education and business markets with innovative solutions. Samsung diversifies global mobile phone production while Chinese MacBook case supplier faces quality issues.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, OpenAI, Beijing Fourth Paradigm Technology, Hive Box Holdings, Richwave Technology, UL Solutions Inc, Reddit , Structural Monitoring Cdi, Acal PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Apple Arizona Production Milestone, Samsung 3nm Yield Still Weak Vs. TSMC
  • Hezbollah’s Pager Explosions and South Korea’s Security Breach – Implications for Tech Supply Chains
  • Episode 85: OpenAI leaves AI Silicon in the Dust
  • Beijing Fourth Paradigm US$1.1bn Lockup Expiry – Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity
  • Hive Box – Pre-IPO: To Understand Who Pays and Why They Pay
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Sep-2024): Gold Apollo denies Lebanon pager explosions; MOEA confirms Taiwan assembly.
  • UL Solutions’ Post-IPO Playbook: Industrial Growth
  • Reddit, Inc. – Objective Of The Report
  • Structural Monitoring Systems – Earnings at inflection point
  • discoverIE Group – Moving into the next growth phase


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Apple Arizona Production Milestone, Samsung 3nm Yield Still Weak Vs. TSMC

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s U.S. Production Strategy Achieves Major Milestone – Begins Production of Apple A16 Chips in Arizona
  • Reports of Apple’s Disappointing Initial iPhone 16 Sales Data; Key Taiwan Suppliers Top Losers Recently
  • Samsung Falling Behind TSMC – New Report of Low Yields Continuing to Plague Samsung’s 3nm AI Processors

Hezbollah’s Pager Explosions and South Korea’s Security Breach – Implications for Tech Supply Chains

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Explosive pagers linked to Hezbollah attacks spark controversy for a Taiwanese brand.
  • Not just Lebanon – today it was reported that the South Korean military removed Chinese-made CCTV cameras after secret backdoors were detected.
  • A counter-intuitive conclusion: Despite recent news, is the trend ultimately positive for Taiwanese tech hardware makers?

Episode 85: OpenAI leaves AI Silicon in the Dust

By The Circuit

  • The new transformer model requires significant amount of inference and multilevel reasoning
  • The demand for inference compute is skyrocketing, surpassing current silicon architecture capabilities
  • OpenAI’s new model showcases the future potential of AI, but also highlights the gap in semiconductor architectures and computing infrastructure

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Beijing Fourth Paradigm US$1.1bn Lockup Expiry – Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity

By Clarence Chu

  • Beijing Fourth Paradigm Technology (6682 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 28th Sept 2023 after raising US$130m. Its one-year lockup will expire on 27th Sept 2024.
  • Beijing Fourth Paradigm is a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. It was the largest player by revenue in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2022, as per CIC.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Hive Box – Pre-IPO: To Understand Who Pays and Why They Pay

By Ming Lu

  • Delivery workers would like to pay to save their time.
  • Retailers would also like to pay for return delivery to raise their service quality.
  • However, product buyers have to pay, but would not like to pay the delay fee.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Sep-2024): Gold Apollo denies Lebanon pager explosions; MOEA confirms Taiwan assembly.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Gold Apollo denies involvement in Lebanon pager explosions, while Taiwan’s MOEA confirms pager assembly happening in Taiwan.
  • Taiwan’s wafer foundry industry set to grow in 3Q 2024; can new orders and cost reductions drive Intel’s recovery?
  • E Ink Prism technology revolutionizing automotive and consumer electronics;CATL looking to expand in solar-storage market.

UL Solutions’ Post-IPO Playbook: Industrial Growth

By Baptista Research

  • UL Solutions reported a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, marking a continuation of growth across all segments and geographies.
  • This performance included an 8.4% increase in organic growth, resulting in $730 million in revenue.
  • The company benefited significantly from high demand in its Industrial segment and saw positive trends in its Consumer and Software & Advisory segments.

Reddit, Inc. – Objective Of The Report

By Baptista Research

  • Reddit’s second quarter 2024 earnings reflect a company in the midst of scaling its user base and revenue streams, with notable strides in technological advancements and international expansion.
  • The discourse during the call highlighted that Reddit, under the leadership of CEO Steve Huffman and COO Jen Wong, continues to push aggressively on growth, particularly through enhancements in user experience and advertising efficacy.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Structural Monitoring Systems – Earnings at inflection point

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research is initiating coverage of vertically-integrated aviation designer and manufacturer Structural Monitoring Systems (ASX:SMN) with a DCF derived valuation of $0.82/share, representing potential capital upside of 44% from the current share price.
  • SMN delivered its maiden EBITDA profit in FY24 and we expect the company to maintain profitability into FY25 while bringing key new products to market.
  • A likely decline in contract manufacturing revenues to make way for higher margin own brand products should have a positive impact on group gross margins going forward, adding to the earnings leverage from expected revenue growth (management have forecast 25% revenue growth in FY25).

discoverIE Group – Moving into the next growth phase

By Edison Investment Research

discoverIE’s first capital markets day (CMD) in six years was an opportunity for the group to recap how via its buy-and-build strategy it has successfully grown the company from a market cap of £25m in 2009 to £592m today, while transforming the business from an electronics distributor to a pure-play specialist electronics design and manufacture company. Management also outlined how it expects to drive future growth and profitability. New at the CMD was the announcement of an additional target market, security. As the group has matured, it has put in place structures and processes to maximise revenue opportunities and optimise profitability and cash flow, while retaining the group’s essential DNA.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intel Corp, Oracle Corp, Samsung Electronics, Adobe Systems, Tokyo Tsushin Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel. US DoD & AWS Deals Are Distractions While The Head Remains Firmly In The Sand
  • Oracle’s Cloud Wars: The Story Of Its Expansion and the Challenges That Could Threaten Its Growth! (9/24)
  • Samsung Electronics (005930-KR): Quality Generative AI Play, Trading at a Discount
  • Adobe’s Winning Formula for Double-Digit Growth: Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and AI! (9/24)
  • Tokyo Communications Group (7359 JP) – 2Q Follow-Up – Sep 4, 2024


Intel. US DoD & AWS Deals Are Distractions While The Head Remains Firmly In The Sand

By William Keating

  • US DoD & AWS deals are little more than distractions from the main event
  • Making Intel Foundry a subsidiary won’t make one whit of a difference but may just be the next step in its eventual spin-off
  • The core issue, the GM collapse in Q224, was not addressed in the BM update from the CEO. That’s a problem. 

Oracle’s Cloud Wars: The Story Of Its Expansion and the Challenges That Could Threaten Its Growth! (9/24)

By Baptista Research

  • Oracle Corporation’s Q1 FY 2025 results demonstrated a robust performance, underscored by significant revenue growth and strategic expansions in their cloud offerings.
  • The total revenue for the quarter was $13.3 billion, marking an 8% year-over-year increase.
  • Cloud revenue was a standout with SaaS and IaaS generating $5.6 billion, reflecting a 22% increase.

Samsung Electronics (005930-KR): Quality Generative AI Play, Trading at a Discount

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is a leading beneficiary of the recovery in global Smartphone demand, and strength in Memory prices, driven by the proliferation of Gen AI demand.
  • Global Memory prices have recovered by up to +80%y/y driven by demand from hyperscaler customers for leading-technology DDR5, HBM, and other high-value-added memory products.
  • Samsung Electronics trades more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average trading range, a historically proved to be an excellent buying point.

Adobe’s Winning Formula for Double-Digit Growth: Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and AI! (9/24)

By Baptista Research

  • Adobe’s third-quarter fiscal year 2024 performance highlighted a strong trajectory, with substantial year-over-year revenue growth and positive developments across its major product lines.
  • Revenue stood at $5.41 billion, marking an 11% increase from the previous year.
  • This growth was fueled by the consistent strength in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud.

Tokyo Communications Group (7359 JP) – 2Q Follow-Up – Sep 4, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On August 7, 2024, Tokyo Communications Group, Inc. (hereafter, the “Company”) announced its 1H FY2024/12 financial results.
  • Net sales fell 7.3% YoY to ¥2,771 mn, EBITDA was in the red with a loss of ¥16 mn (versus a positive EBITDA of ¥132 mn in 1H FY2023/12), and operating loss was at ¥211 mn, coming in worse than the ¥30 mn loss recorded in 1H FY2023/12.
  • Ordinary losses increased from ¥56 mn to ¥88 mn, and 1H net loss expanded from¥87 mn to ¥158 mn.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Intel Corp, Asustek Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Squarespace, Freebit Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • China Consumption Weekly (16 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Kuai, Hive Box
  • Intel’s Make-or-Break Moment: How the U.S. Government is Fighting to Save America’s Chip Giant
  • PC Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Wave 2 Unveils Major AI Boost; Reiterate Structural Long for PC Makers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Sep-2024): Luxury EV market surges, mass market lags.
  • Permira’s $7.2 Billion Bet on Squarespace: What Makes it an Attractive Acquisition?
  • Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP): Q1 FY04/25 flash update


China Consumption Weekly (16 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Kuai, Hive Box

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall apps decide to accept WeChat Pay, the online payment way from Tencent.
  • JD announced that it will raise employee salaries up to 20 months within two years.
  • Hive Box, the market dominator of parcel locker in China, submitted its IPO proposal.

Intel’s Make-or-Break Moment: How the U.S. Government is Fighting to Save America’s Chip Giant

By Baptista Research

  • Intel Corporation, once the unchallenged leader in the semiconductor space, has recently found itself in a precarious position.
  • With its stock prices plummeting and revenues falling, Intel is struggling to regain its footing in a market dominated by foreign giants like TSMC and Samsung.
  • The U.S. government, through multiple initiatives and significant financial commitments, has stepped in to rescue the beleaguered company, seeing it as crucial to both national security and economic competitiveness.

PC Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Wave 2 Unveils Major AI Boost; Reiterate Structural Long for PC Makers

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Microsoft today announced a major Copilot update, called “Wave 2”, introducing a new collaborative interface and enhanced Copilot capabilities across all major Office apps.
  • Copilot continues to gain momentum with large corporations, as Microsoft announced today that Vodafone has adopted it for 68,000 employees.
  • We remain Structurally Long PC Makers – We continue to believe Microsoft’s Copilot will drive PC upgrades as users recognize the productivity benefits of faster ‘AI PCs’. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Sep-2024): Luxury EV market surges, mass market lags.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • European EV market divided with luxury segment growing rapidly but mass market stagnating, reflecting consumer preferences.
  • Tata announcing construction of two new fabs in India highlights increasing investment in semiconductor manufacturing in the country.
  • Samsung Display preparing to supply Apple with foldable displays in 2024 showcases the competition and advancements in tech industry.

Permira’s $7.2 Billion Bet on Squarespace: What Makes it an Attractive Acquisition?

By Baptista Research

  • Squarespace, a leading platform in website design and digital services, has attracted attention from private equity firm Permira with a revised buyout bid of $46.50 per share, valuing the deal at $7.2 billion.
  • While this offer comes after concerns from proxy advisory firm ISS that the initial sale process undervalued the company, Permira’s renewed interest signals a strong belief in Squarespace’s long-term growth potential.
  • Squarespace presents an attractive opportunity given its strong financial performance, with a 19% year-over-year revenue increase and a growing base of over 4.9 million subscriptions.

Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP): Q1 FY04/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY04/25: Revenue JPY13.3bn (-5.3% YoY), Operating profit JPY1.5bn (-12.1% YoY), Recurring profit JPY1.5bn (-10.6% YoY), Net income JPY814mn (-5.7% YoY).
  • Business support services for MVNOs: Revenue JPY2.5bn (+4.9% YoY), Operating profit JPY325mn (-29.7% YoY).
  • 5G Homestyle services: Revenue JPY6.2bn (-18.2% YoY), Operating profit JPY769mn (-23.7% YoY), excluding fiscal year-end change, revenue +5.9% YoY, operating profit +26.0% YoY.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: AAC Technologies Holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, BirdDog Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Returning to Higher Trading Range? ASE’s Two Upcoming Events
  • BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • At present, we see one ADD and one DEL. If this index change takes place, there could be US$538mn capping flows one-way.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Returning to Higher Trading Range? ASE’s Two Upcoming Events

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +16.6% Premium; Returning to the 15 – 20% Trading Range?
  • UMC: +0.5% Premium; Near the Middle of the Historical Trading Range
  • ASE: +5.2% Premium; Participating in Two Investor Conferences in Next Two Weeks

BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has initiated coverage of video software and hardware technology group BirdDog Technology (ASX:BDT) with a base case valuation of $0.27/share, representing 335% potential upside to the current share price.
  • A challenging FY24 is now behind the business and the causes of the problems have been addressed and resolved, in our view.
  • BDT invested heavily in R&D through the downturn with the investment program set to yield results on a strong revenue uptick from the release of multiple new products across several categories.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Palo Alto Networks, Ambarella Inc, Descartes Systems Grp, Teradyne Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn
  • Palo Alto Networks’ Bold Shift: Can AI-Driven Security Keep Up with Cyber Threats?
  • Ambarella’s AI Surge: Can IoT and Automotive Growth Drive Future Success?
  • The Descartes Systems Group: Advantage Through Strategic Acquisitions – Focus on BoxTop Technologies! – Major Drivers
  • Teradyne Inc.: Expansion into High-Payload Robotics and Channel Growth Is A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn

By Brian Freitas


Palo Alto Networks’ Bold Shift: Can AI-Driven Security Keep Up with Cyber Threats?

By Baptista Research

  • Palo Alto Networks’ fiscal fourth quarter 2024 earnings announcement underscores both strides and challenges in the cybersecurity landscape, reflecting a dynamic sector intensively engaged with technological advancements and emerging threats.
  • Chairman and CEO Nikesh Arora detailed the company’s response to significant cybersecurity threats, including ransomware and public data extortion, emphasizing a heightened focus on AI and platformization to simplify client security architectures.
  • Financially, Palo Alto Networks reported exceeding its quarterly revenue and EPS guidance.

Ambarella’s AI Surge: Can IoT and Automotive Growth Drive Future Success?

By Baptista Research

  • Ambarella’s Q2 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings revealed a mixed yet promising scenario as the company navigates through a challenging economic environment while seizing growing demands for AI-powered solutions.
  • Dr. Fermi Wang, President and CEO, alongside CFO John Young, presented a detailed account of the company’s performance and future outlook which provides a comprehensive understanding of its position and strategies moving forward.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

The Descartes Systems Group: Advantage Through Strategic Acquisitions – Focus on BoxTop Technologies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Descartes Systems Group has reported its quarterly financial results, illustrating a strong performance across several key financial metrics.
  • This performance is anchored by a 14% increase in total revenues yearover-year, with a significant component of this growth being organic, estimated at about 9%.
  • Furthermore, the company enjoyed a 23% increase in net income compared to the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA climbed by 17%, surpassing the company’s target growth range of 10%-15% annually.

Teradyne Inc.: Expansion into High-Payload Robotics and Channel Growth Is A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Teradyne, a leading provider of automated test equipment, exhibited mixed financial results in the second quarter of 2024, grappling with various segment-specific dynamics and macroeconomic factors.
  • The company reported a robust performance in its System on Chip (SOC) and Memory segments, primarily boosted by elevated demand from cloud AI applications.
  • Additionally, Teradyne noted solid deliveries in the Compute sector, attributed to the dense network requirements of AI data centers.

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