Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sea Ltd, Nextin, Istyle Inc, Tencent, NetEase and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd (SE US) – Turning Tides Present a Different Wave
  • LX Semicon (108320 KS) – Section Change, Index Flow and KOSDAQ150 Replacement
  • Istyle High Conviction Update: Up 90% on Partnership With Amazon
  • Tencent 2Q: Earnings Weaken Further
  • NetEase (9999 HK): 2Q22, Grew Healthily in Spite of Headwind, 52% Upside

Sea Ltd (SE US) – Turning Tides Present a Different Wave

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Ltd results were impressive on a number of levels, with profitability in its core e-commerce business improving considerably in core markets of South-East Asia and Taiwan a key positive. 
  • The decline in digital entertainment revenue was expected, with the stabilisation of quarterly active users a sign of some plateauing after recent declines but rankings continue to remain solid. 
  • Sea Ltd suspended revenue guidance but continued to stress confidence in the growth outlook, whilst keenly focusing on improving efficiencies and profitability. This underpins our positive long-term view.

LX Semicon (108320 KS) – Section Change, Index Flow and KOSDAQ150 Replacement

By Brian Freitas


Istyle High Conviction Update: Up 90% on Partnership With Amazon

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Istyle Inc (3660 JP)’s share price rose more than 90% over the last few days on the news that Amazon is becoming a strategic partner of the business.
  • With Beauty Services’ margin expansion more than compensating for On Platform’s weaknesses, we are expecting this turnaround in price performance to last longer than a news cycle.
  • We think istyle’s share price could break out to a new high as the company’s medium-term OP estimates are revised upwards.

Tencent 2Q: Earnings Weaken Further

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK)  reported 2Q2022 results today. Revenue increased 3.1% YoY to RMB134.0bn (vs consensus RMB134.6bn) while reported OP for the quarter decreased 42.7% YoY to RMB30.bn (vs consensus RMB36.3bn).
  • Excluding interest income and gains, adjusted OP decreased 21.2% YoY to RMB23.7bn driven by drop in GPM across all three business segments.
  • Tencent also mentioned that news article regarding a possible stake sale of Meituan is inaccurate.

NetEase (9999 HK): 2Q22, Grew Healthily in Spite of Headwind, 52% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • Revenue grew by 13% YoY in 2Q22 in spite of headwind.
  • The company actively expanded outside China to bypass the domestic license shortage.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 52% for the end of 2023.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Appier Group, Meituan, Hancom Inc, NEC Corp, SK Telecom, Tencent, Trina Solar Co Ltd, Sea Ltd, LX Semicon, GoTo and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Appier Group (4180 JP): Now TOPIX-Ready!
  • Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating
  • KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Hancom (030520) To Replace Vidente (121800)
  • NEC (6701) | Significantly Undervalued with Upcoming Catalyst
  • MSCI Korea Flow Trading for August 31st
  • Tencent (700 HK): Revenue Decreased for First Time, Margin Recovering, Price Overly Impacted
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Rotation To Continue
  • Sea Ltd: Tough Times Ahead
  • LX Semicon KOSDAQ→KOSPI Migration Event: Index Rebalance Trading
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Let the Synergistic Journey Begin

Appier Group (4180 JP): Now TOPIX-Ready!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA


Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating

By Thomas Schroeder

  • June 27 call to sell strength in line and showing increasing downside pressure below the 185 support (now resistance).
  • Dual top at 210 induced a turn well under trendline resistance. Break of bear wedge support confirmed the macro sell signal.
  • Below 166 targets 140 where a stall in the decline/bounce is due (resistance near 160-66) but expected to give way for a test on the 110 low zone.

KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Hancom (030520) To Replace Vidente (121800)

By Brian Freitas


NEC (6701) | Significantly Undervalued with Upcoming Catalyst

By Mark Chadwick

  • NEC is geared into two mega-trends that will drive 9% CAGR in EBITDA through 2025 
  • NEC is a beneficiary of DX (digital transformation) in Japan and global 5G, which are both just starting to take off 
  • NEC Investment Day may be short-term catalyst, but it is the undervaluation relative to the long-term opportunity that is mispriced 

MSCI Korea Flow Trading for August 31st

By Sanghyun Park

  • MSCI Korea’s August QIR features one deletion: SK Telecom. But Woori Financial, HYBE, and LG Energy will also present a notable impact as they face float rate changes.
  • We should consider executing flow trading on these names, even SKT, towards the effective date as much as possible, as the flow magnitude wouldn’t be enough to act proactively.
  • It’s been witnessed that SK Telecom’s recall and liquidation of short positions have been made preemptively this time, minimizing the risk of price distortion on the effective date.

Tencent (700 HK): Revenue Decreased for First Time, Margin Recovering, Price Overly Impacted

By Ming Lu

  • In 2Q22, revenue decreased YoY for the first time on record.
  • Unexpectedly, FinTech revenue stopped growing in 2Q22, as users are conservative in borrowing and investing money.
  • However, we still believe Tencent’s stock price is overly impacted.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Rotation To Continue

By Brian Freitas

  • Over 80% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance, we see 7 stocks in inclusion/exclusion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.9% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 2.85bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) by a wide margin over the last few months.

Sea Ltd: Tough Times Ahead

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Sea’s share price dropped 14% yesterday following its 2Q22 results as $2.9bn revenue ($3.0bn for consensus) and $659.4m operating loss excluding goodwill impairment ($594m for consensus) were weaker than expected.
  • After lowering the e-commerce revenue guidance by $400m in 1Q22, Sea Ltd (SE US)’s decision to suspend 2022 e-commerce revenue guidance in 2Q22 is an early indication of difficulties ahead.
  • Digital Entertainment’s gross bookings are down another 10% QoQ in 2Q22, which indicates that Free Fire’s revenue and profitability could continue to go down during the second half of 2022.

LX Semicon KOSDAQ→KOSPI Migration Event: Index Rebalance Trading

By Sanghyun Park

  • LX Semicon announced that its board approved KOSPI migration on August 17. This migration requires shareholder approval, and a shareholder meeting will be scheduled for September 23.
  • The outflow of KOSDAQ 150 is estimated to be -1.37x ADTV. A passive impact of this magnitude should cause a price movement of at least 3%p.
  • But LX Semicon’s GICS sector won’t change after the KOSPI migration. We should refrain from trading with expectations for the possibility of KOSPI 200 inclusion at this point.

GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Let the Synergistic Journey Begin

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ)‘s announcement last week of the integration of GoFood into the Tokopedia app is a further signal of continuing synergies taking place across the ecosystem.
  • This latest move follows GoPay’s integration into Tokopedia, which exceeded expectations plus further integration with Bank Jago, and the introduction of GoPay coins common rewards all providing growing synergies.
  • GoTo is a unique proxy to the Indonesian digital economy covering more verticals than any other player, with huge potential for ongoing synergies potentially throwing off higher returns. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Meituan, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy, KMW Co Ltd, Intel Corp, Shenzhen Dianxiaomi Network Technology, T Mobile Us Inc, Open Edges Technology, Oracle Corp, Okta Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK) To Divest Meituan (3690 HK) – Impact and Index Implications
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues & Could Keep Going
  • Tencent’s Potential Sale of Meituan Stake – Read Across to Other Stocks & Index Implications
  • KRX K-New Deal September Rebalancing: Screening Results
  • Intel Corporation: The Ananki Acquisition & Other Developments
  • Chinese Ecommerce Firm Checks Out with $110m from SoftBank, Sequoia
  • T-Mobile US Inc: First VoNR Deployment & Other Drivers
  • Open Edges Technology IPO Preview
  • Oracle Corporation: OCI Push In India & Other Drivers
  • Okta Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

Tencent (700 HK) To Divest Meituan (3690 HK) – Impact and Index Implications

By Travis Lundy

  • Reuters this afternoon carried an article that Tencent (700 HK) was seeking to divest “US$24bn” (17%) of $78bn market cap delivery company Meituan (3690 HK) by year-end to mollify domestic regulators.
  • Tencent would seek to launch a share sale within 2022 “if market conditions are favourable.” Meituan shares tanked 9%, immediately.
  • The article suggests disposal via block sale (faster than negotiating with a private buyer), odd given Tencent’s Q1 2022 experience with the JD.com unwind. But it leads to BIG flows.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues & Could Keep Going

By Brian Freitas

  • Past the midway mark in the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.32% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.55bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index over the last few months, with the outperformance widening over the last few weeks.

Tencent’s Potential Sale of Meituan Stake – Read Across to Other Stocks & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Tencent (700 HK)‘s reported sale of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake led to a selloff on Meituan and on other companies that Tencent has invested in.
  • There are 10 listed companies where Tencent (700 HK)‘s holding is over US$1bn. Some stakes are more likely to be sold than others. 
  • A complete stake sale will benefit some companies more than others since they are part of a wider array of indices and that will bring in passive flow.

KRX K-New Deal September Rebalancing: Screening Results

By Sanghyun Park

  • KMW is the most important name in this rebalancing. It will be a newcomer to the K-New Deal, replacing AfreecaTV for Top Three in INTERNET.
  • KMW’s inflow will be very substantial at 8.60x ADTV, whereas AfreecaTV will suffer an outflow equivalent to 1.69x ADTV.
  • In addition, HLB will replace Hanmi Science, and Seojin System will take over Danal. Webzen also replaces Devsisters.

Intel Corporation: The Ananki Acquisition & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Intel has witnessed a rapid and sudden decline in sales activity which resulted in the company delivering a very weak quarterly result where it failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • In its efforts to refocus itself on its core, the management continued to carry out various corporate restructuring efforts.
  • We provide the stock of Intel with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

Chinese Ecommerce Firm Checks Out with $110m from SoftBank, Sequoia

By Tech in Asia

  • Dianxiaomi, a China-based ecommerce software-as-a-service platform, has bagged US$110 million in a series D round.
  • With the latest investment, Dianxiaomi has raised a total of US$210 million this year. In March, the company closed a US$100 million series C round.
  • Founded by Du Jianyin in 2014, the firm specializes in developing infrastructure for cross-border ecommerce

T-Mobile US Inc: First VoNR Deployment & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • T-Mobile has striven to provide the best pricing and network while operating in a cutthroat market and a macroeconomic situation that is rapidly changing.
  • They also expanded the availability of T-Mobile Business Internet, making T-Mobile the first and only countrywide provider of the Internet for businesses.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Open Edges Technology IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Open Edges Technology is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in September 2022. The IPO price range is from 15,000 won to 18,000 won.
  • The IPO base deal size is from US$42 million to US$50 million. The expected market cap after the IPO is from 334 billion won to 401 billion won. 
  • Open Edges Technology is a system semiconductor IP specialist with one of the world’s only integrated AI semiconductor design asset IP platform. 

Oracle Corporation: OCI Push In India & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Oracle has rebounded well in terms of financial performance with a strong all-around beat in the recent quarter.
  • The company is currently developing a comprehensive set of applications for the healthcare industry’s whole ecosystem, beginning with healthcare providers like hospitals and clinics.
  • Besides, during the quarter, Oracle launched an “OCI dedicated region” for the India market as part of its cloud services platform, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), to provide customers with public cloud services on-premises.

Okta Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on identity solutions provider, Okta Inc.
  • The company delivered a solid set of results in the last quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • There was a rise in Okta’s stand-alone revenue, total revenue, current RPO, and RPO.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: AEM, Softbank Corp, Nearmap Ltd, Sea Ltd, ROBLOX Corp, freee, ARTERIA Networks Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • AEM: Stellar 1H22; Deeply Undervalued. Fair Value Remains at 8 SGD.
  • 2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update – Going the Right Way
  • Nearmap’s A$2.10 Per Share Indicative Offer from Thoma Bravo
  • Sea Ltd: Reduced Consensus Is Still Optimistic
  • Roblox 2Q22: 15% or 35% EBITDA Margins?
  • Freee: Medium-Term Plan Seems Attainable but Profits to Delay
  • Arteria Networks (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: In-Line Quarter Includes 7% Revenue Growth
  • Nearmap: Thoma Bravo’s Bird’s Eye View

AEM: Stellar 1H22; Deeply Undervalued. Fair Value Remains at 8 SGD.

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM reported stellar 1H22 results beating street estimates as well as far outpacing their own guidance. CHIPS act in USA will benefit company in FY23.
  • Stock reaction (+6%) muted despite great outlook and management optimism. Despite record results and strong outlook, stock is down YTD. 
  • AEM is cheap trading at only +/-10x FY22 EPS, too low given the growth and consistent margins profile. Fair Value remains 8 SGD.

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update – Going the Right Way

By Travis Lundy

  • As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly ‘smart’ vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.
  • This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it’s doing even better.
  • This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.

Nearmap’s A$2.10 Per Share Indicative Offer from Thoma Bravo

By Arun George

  • Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative offer of A$2.10 per share from Thoma Bravo. The offer price represents a 39.1% premium to the last trading day price.
  • Thoma Bravo has secured a 7-day exclusivity to firm up an offer. Thoma Bravo is a credible bidder and agreed to acquire Ping Identity Holding Corp (PING US) last week. 
  • Nearmap also revealed other non-binding expressions of interest. The exclusivity could flush out other bids. We think that offer is reasonable. At the last close, the gross spread is 11.4%.

Sea Ltd: Reduced Consensus Is Still Optimistic

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Consensus has revised down Sea Ltd (SE US)’s inflated estimates before 2Q22 earnings due on 16th August 2022.
  • These revised estimates are on the optimistic side as consensus still thinks that 1Q22 was just a one-off drop.
  • However, our analysis of Google Play and App Store data suggests that Sea Ltd’s gaming and e-commerce popularity has further deteriorated from the 1Q22 level.

Roblox 2Q22: 15% or 35% EBITDA Margins?

By Aaron Gabin

  • Roblox initially fell 17% on earnings, but ended the week up 8%… why? Third party data is driving stock price action.
  • Reacceleration of DAUs, engagement, and bookings is beginning to play out…bullish ST.
  • LT EBITDA margins are anyone’s guess right now, which makes the coming 9/9 Analyst Day an important catalyst to frame up the size and margin impact of TAM extensions.

Freee: Medium-Term Plan Seems Attainable but Profits to Delay

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Freee reported 4Q and full-year FY06/2022 results. 4Q revenue increased 31.2% YoY to JPY3.87bn (vs consensus JPY3.9bn) while full-year revenue grew 40.2% YoY to JPY14.4bn beating own guidance by 0.2%.
  • Operating losses decreased to 18.7% of total revenue from 32.5% of revenue in the same period a year ago. Full-year OP. losses were 15.7% of revenue vs guidance 17.1%.
  • Improvement in profitability was driven by growth in ARPU from mid-and-large paying users.

Arteria Networks (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: In-Line Quarter Includes 7% Revenue Growth

By Kirk Boodry

  • ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP) posted Q1 22 results in line with expectations
  • 7% revenue growth was the highest in five quarters whilst core segment growth was the best since 2019, supported by work from home demand and data volume growth
  • Operating income is down YoY as it laps one-time gains a year ago – this has been well-flagged by management and consensus

Nearmap: Thoma Bravo’s Bird’s Eye View

By David Blennerhassett

  • Mapping technology outfit Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU) has fielded a non-binding indicative offer from San Francisco-based PE firm Thoma Bravo.
  • Thoma Bravo is offering A$2.10/share, a 39% premium to last close, and an 83% premium to when Nearmap was first approached in early July. 
  • Due diligence is at an advanced stage. Curiously, Nearmap has agreed to pay Thoma Bravo up to US$3mn if a transaction agreement does not result.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Softbank Group, Sobr Safe, Advanced Micro Devices and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, OZ Minerals, Lifestyle, Nexon, Magic Empire, Swire Pacific
  • SOBR Safe Inc.: A Unique Technology On The Cusp Of Commercialization
  • Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, OZ Minerals, Lifestyle, Nexon, Magic Empire, Swire Pacific

By David Blennerhassett

  • BHP launched a bid for OZ Minerals (OZL AU). OZ has rejected it as being too low. BHP said the Offer provides certainty of funding growth. They are both right
  • This Offer price for Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK) is probably sufficient to get up. It has been declared final for that reason. Optically $6/share was a more reasonable level.
  • Nexon (3659 JP) announced another ¥100bn buyback over three years. However, the buyback is too small to pay back the Kim family inheritance tax obligations. 

SOBR Safe Inc.: A Unique Technology On The Cusp Of Commercialization

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Alcohol intoxication of employees during work hours is known to result in millions of dollars’ worth of productivity loss as well as many other risks to corporations each year.
  • Given this background, SOBR Safe (NASDAQ:SOBR) has a highly relevant technological solution that can help mitigate and minimize the these risks.
  • The company has a particularly large addressable market as it helps employers carry out the alcohol intoxication monitoring of workers with the help of its preventive detection technology platform.

Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD)

By MT Capital

  • Today I will be completing an in-depth analysis on AMD .
  • Within, I will break down the multitude of opportunities the company has in front of it and provide a succinct overview of the company’s vast technology portfolio.
  • Additionally, I will spend time discussing how the company is eating Intel’s lunch, dig deeper into their financials, and discuss some positive and risk-based factors alike that I am considering with respect to the company. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Rorze Corp, Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Adobe Systems, Mastercard and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Rorze (6323) | Japan Small Cap Winner
  • Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong Receives Pardon & Get Out of Jail Card: A Signal of Major M&As by Samsung?
  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) 1Q 22 Results – Focus on Fintech and LatAm Holdings
  • Adobe Inc.: Creative Cloud Upside & Other Drivers
  • Mastercard Inc.: New Set Of Collaborations & Other Key Drivers

Rorze (6323) | Japan Small Cap Winner

By Mark Chadwick

  • We are Bullish on Rorze, a global leader in ultra-clean wafer substrate handling solutions.
  • We believe that Rorze is well placed to monetise the long-term growth in semiconductor demand and WFE spend
  • The stock has recently underperformed its peer group and valuations collapsed. We see almost 100% upside potential based on a 14x target multiple

Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong Receives Pardon & Get Out of Jail Card: A Signal of Major M&As by Samsung?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 12 August, the South Korean government finally gave a presidential pardon to Samsung’s heir Lee Jae-Yong.
  • With Lee Jae-Yong given the presidential pardon, there is an increasing likelihood that the Samsung Group could become more aggressive in making major global M&As in the next several years.
  • Three major M&As that Samsung could make in the next several years include ARM, Infineon, and NXP Semiconductor. 

Softbank Group (9984 JP) 1Q 22 Results – Focus on Fintech and LatAm Holdings

By Victor Galliano

  • Softbank Group’s fintech portfolio companies – and especially those in the largely Softbank-funded Vision Fund 2 – were a meaningful part of the group’s large loss in fiscal 1Q 2022
  • However, Klarna and eToro “down rounds” – concluded in early July – do not seem to have been incorporated into June-end losses; the Vision Funds are absorbing the LatAm Fund
  • Despite the public markets rebound, Softbank faces multiples challenges, and it is hard to find positives in the Alibaba derivatives contracts

Adobe Inc.: Creative Cloud Upside & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Adobe has witnessed a particularly robust demand over Experience Cloud, Document Cloud, and Creative Cloud.
  • Adobe is winning in its established business and is viewing significant momentum in innovative categories.
  • During the quarter, it hiked prices for particular creative cloud subscriptions which helped the revenue growth.

Mastercard Inc.: New Set Of Collaborations & Other Key Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Mastercard continued to bear the brunt of inflationary pressures since the start of 2022 but the company has definitely benefitted from the fact that travel-related spending and consumer spending have remained strong.
  • Apple Pay Later has been recently announced by Apple which is using the Mastercard installments program.
  • In the U.S., the company established a partnership agreements that extend its small, co-brand, credit, and debit business credit programs.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Toyo Corp, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Kakao Pay, Kuaishou Technology, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Freshworks and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Tecnica (8151) – BIG Buyback
  • Tencent (700 HK) Pre-Earnings: Still to Be Slow in 2Q22, But Price Overly Impacted
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings – TSMC Premium Decline Could Highlight Foreign Vs. Domestic Sentiment Mismatch
  • The Launch of Apple Pay Is Likely to Result in Market Share Losses for Kakao Pay
  • Kuaishou Dives Into Cloud Services and Chipmaking
  • HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent
  • Confident In Growth Opportunities. Weak Q3FY22 Billings Guidance Does Not Change Our Bullish Thesis

Toyo Tecnica (8151) – BIG Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyo Corp (8151 JP) is a smallcap electronics firm specialising in sensors/testers/loggers for industrial and data system processes, large scale antennae systems, high tech medical equipment, remote sensing equipment, etc. 
  • They have seen their (extraordinarily seasonal) revenues go mostly nowhere over the past ten years, but they have, until recently, accumulated cash and securities. 
  • On 10 August, the company announced a LARGE buyback of up to 8.44% of shares out. The details suggest

Tencent (700 HK) Pre-Earnings: Still to Be Slow in 2Q22, But Price Overly Impacted

By Ming Lu

  • We believe revenue would Still Be Slow in 2Q22, but will recover in 4Q22 or 2023.
  • We believe FinTech will be the only highlight, but online game and advertising will be negatively impacted.
  • However, we estimate the stock price will have an upside of 55%.

Taiwan Dual-Listings – TSMC Premium Decline Could Highlight Foreign Vs. Domestic Sentiment Mismatch

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s ADR premium has fallen substantially and is at the lower end of its 3-year range
  • ASE’s ADR premium is in contrast near the upper end of its range
  • ChipMOS ADRs are now trading at a discount to their Taiwan shares

The Launch of Apple Pay Is Likely to Result in Market Share Losses for Kakao Pay

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several days, there have been numerous local media outlets that have mentioned about a potential launch of Apple Pay in Korea in the coming months. 
  • We believe the launch of Apple Pay in Korea could occur in the next 6-12 months and this is likely to further heighten the competitive pressures on Kakao Pay.
  • We continue to be concerned about the lofty valuation multiples of Kakao Pay as it is trading at 165x P/E (2024E) and 5.1x P/B (2024E). 

Kuaishou Dives Into Cloud Services and Chipmaking

By Caixin Global

  • Kuaishou Technology Co. Ltd., the operator of China’s second-largest short video app, unveiled the new video cloud brand StreamLake and a self-developed intelligent video processing chip Wednesday in key moves to expand its business
  • The launch of StreamLake, the first enterprise-facing product from Kuaishou, marks the short-video platform operator’s official entry into the cloud services market and a shift from its original consumer-focused businesses
  • StreamLake will provide artificial intelligence-powered video creation and distribution solutions for corporate clients, Kuaishou said.

HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.
  • The five-day decline in Longfor was 18%, Country Garden by 15.50%, Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell 6.75%, and HSI Properties Index fell 2.75%.
  • It has had zero impact on the rest of the world (ROW) markets.

Confident In Growth Opportunities. Weak Q3FY22 Billings Guidance Does Not Change Our Bullish Thesis

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Freshworks (FRSH US)  reported solid 2QFY22 results, and the company beat all key estimates, showed strong revenue growth of 37% YoY, and added ~1,800 net new customers. 
  • Welcomed high-profile new customers such as Cloudera, Dynatrace, Sterling Bank, Thomas Cook, World Market, Angi Home, and more. 
  • Shares of Freshworks (FRSH US)  have been exposed to heightened volatility lately, which we think provides long-term investors with an opportunity. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Softbank Group, Lite On Technology, Canon Inc, Kakao Games Corp, True Corp Pcl, Xperi, Arlo Technologies Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank Confirms BABA Selldown – Big Changes on Softie’s Balance Sheet and BABA Index Implications
  • FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance Preview: BIG Capping Changes in September
  • Softbank Group Shock Settlement of Forward Alibaba Contracts Is Worrisome
  • Looking at Canon Buyback Dynamics History – Patterns Vs Peers Gives Execution Hints
  • Kakao Games: Announces A Rights Offering Worth 197 Billion Won
  • True/​​​DTAC: Merger Support Increasingly Tenuous
  • XPER: Ready for a Split
  • ARLO: Capturing Paid Subscriber Growth

Softbank Confirms BABA Selldown – Big Changes on Softie’s Balance Sheet and BABA Index Implications

By Travis Lundy

  • Softbank today confirmed that the stories circulating about Softbank having hedged a decent portion – 200+mm shares – of its BABA position were true. 
  • The market expectation had been that these pre-paid forwards would be held for another two years. The announcement today is that they will be physically settled early. 
  • This means the entire accounting effect – worth ¥4.6trln – will hit the income statement (and balance sheet) in the current quarter. There are investment and index implications

FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance Preview: BIG Capping Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We do not expect any deletions from the FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index in September, but there will be a lot of passive flow due to capping changes.
  • Based on the closing prices from 9 August, we estimate one-way turnover of 11.2% at the September rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of TWD 15,754m (US$525m).
  • Most stocks with expected passive inflows are trading near their recent lows (leading to higher dividend yield), while most stocks with expected passive outflows have rallied recently (lower dividend yields).

Softbank Group Shock Settlement of Forward Alibaba Contracts Is Worrisome

By Kirk Boodry

  • Softbank will settle all of its forward derivative contracts on Alibaba by the end of September, representing 242mn ADRs. Some had years to run so this is truly surprising
  • We estimate Softbank Group (9984 JP) raised $35b selling BABA-linked derivatives since mid-2020, which would imply average proceeds per ADR of $145 versus the $91 it trades at now
  • But early settlement also has us wondering when the other show will drop and if that is related to global tech, China or Alibaba specifically 

Looking at Canon Buyback Dynamics History – Patterns Vs Peers Gives Execution Hints

By Travis Lundy

  • Canon Inc (7751 JP) has just started its 17th buyback in 15 years. Like the 16 before, this one is for ¥50bn. 
  • The patterns/dynamics of the canon buybacks in the past are remarkable when compared to buybacks of other companies. 
  • There are outperformance and under-performance patterns vs Peers, and it is worth taking note if you have a position to trade. 

Kakao Games: Announces A Rights Offering Worth 197 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS) announced today a rights offering worth 197 billion won, representing 4.4% of its market cap.
  • Lionheart Studio’s founder and CEO Kim Jae-Young is expected to purchase 3.1 million shares of the rights offering (177 billion won), representing 90% of the total rights offering shares.
  • The issue with Kakao Games and Lionheart Studio remains the fact that many investors would rather invest in Lionheart when it completes its IPO, rather than indirectly through Kakao Games.

True/​​​DTAC: Merger Support Increasingly Tenuous

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly, the board of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC), Thailand’s telco regulator, has called for a more detailed analysis of the deal’s impact on competition, consumers and industry. 
  • This follows recent calls by Thailand’s opposition Move Forward party urging the NBTC to block Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)‘s merger.
  • Both DTAC and True are trading tight to terms – especially True. Time to take down borrow.

XPER: Ready for a Split

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER is in the final stages of separating its IP business from its product business.
  • The Company reported second quarter results in line with our updated estimates after announcing the purchase of Vewd Software and an IP license agreement
  • XPER’s multiple revenue streams gives the Company the ability to grow free cash flow even though one segment could be lagging

ARLO: Capturing Paid Subscriber Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO continues to demonstrate the strength of its paid subscription service by reporting its third straight quarter of non-GAAP net income.
  • ARLO’s ability to grow the number of paid subscribers each quarter has pushed the business to achieve annual recurring revenue (“ARR”) of $116.6 million
  • ARLO added 206 thousand paid subscribers in the second quarter. This was the second straight quarter where the number of net additions was over 200 thousand for the quarter

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Nexon, Softbank Group, NHN Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent New Lows in Sight
  • Nexon Q2 In-Line, New Buyback Plan Too Small To Matter Near-Term
  • Softbank Group – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2022-23 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Tencent Looking to Raise Its Stake in Ubisoft at a Huge Premium
  • NHN: Cancellation of Treasury Shares Equivalent to 10% of Outstanding Shares Over Next 3 Years

Tencent New Lows in Sight

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent short from 390 is rewarding and reaching for new chart lows now that the 310 pivot support has given way and leading the likes of BABA.
  • MACD target support is the key input to align with a terminal wave 5 low to set up the macro long entry in September.
  • Undershoot risk to lower channel support with a low due in September and rally hurdles toward year end at 370/390. 420 remains the forward macro barrier to challenge/clear.

Nexon Q2 In-Line, New Buyback Plan Too Small To Matter Near-Term

By Travis Lundy

  • Nexon (3659 JP) reported Q2 earnings and Q3 forecasts today. Everything is generally “in-line” to tilting slightly light. But USD/yen volatility matters a lot. 
  • The company announced a small dividend hike, from largely meaningless to ever-so-slightly less meaningless. And a plan to buy back ¥100bn of shares over 3 years. 
  • The inheritance tax issue remains a big one, but overhang appears delayed and buyback accretion is small, and also appears delated. And there’s an index sell at end-September.

Softbank Group – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2022-23 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

In our view, Softbank Group’s (SBG) Q1/22-23 results were dismal, with the company reporting a record loss. This was the second consecutive quarterly loss, after SBG registered a big loss just three months ago. One positive factor is liquidity, with the company holding a large amount of cash after heavily monetising its liquid assets (mostly Alibaba shares) during the quarter.

The improvement in LTV despite the steep drop in NAV signals that the ratio, as defined and reported by SBG, is open to the company’s control and manipulation. SBG still has a lot of room to monetise its asset base (JPY 4.5 tn in Alibaba shares and JPY 1.2 tn in T-Mobile/Deutsche Telekom shares). Thus, LTV is no longer meaningful, as the company appears to be able to manipulate the ratio as it wishes, as long as it has liquid assets.


Tencent Looking to Raise Its Stake in Ubisoft at a Huge Premium

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Reuters and several other news media outlets reported that Tencent (700 HK) is looking to raise its stake in French game publisher Ubisoft as it seeks to expand overseas.
  • Tencent owns approx. 5.0% of Ubisoft which was acquired in 2018 and is said to have reached out to the founding family Guillemot to buy a stake from their ownership.
  • As we mentioned in our previous insight, Tencent has been excluded for the fourth time from new game approvals which had impacted its online games biz.

NHN: Cancellation of Treasury Shares Equivalent to 10% of Outstanding Shares Over Next 3 Years

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 9 August, NHN Corp announced that it will cancel treasury shares equivalent to 10% of outstanding shares in the next three years. 
  • This is a tremendous management move to improve shareholder return policy. 
  • A 10% share cancellation of outstanding shares is a major move and this is likely to result in a sharp appreciation of NHN’s share price in the next several weeks. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Softbank Group, EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H, Tencent, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Mercari Inc, Visa, Twitter Inc, Alphabet Inc, Cirrus Logic and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank Group – Q1 22 Results Reaction: So Many Surprises…a Few Were Positive
  • EVOC’s Privatisation Offer of HK$1.75 a Case of Third Time’s the Charm?
  • China Internet Weekly (8Aug2022): Tencent, NTES, Kuaishou, Autohome
  • NTT (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: Forex Gains Flatter Top-Line; Signs of Mobile Stability
  • EVOC (2308 HK)’s Merger By Absorption
  • Mercari (4385) | No Path to Profitability
  • Visa Inc.: New Partnerships & Other Drivers
  • Twitter Inc.: The Data Breach & Other Major Risks
  • Alphabet Inc.: IaaS & Google Cloud Upside
  • Cirrus Logic Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Heavy Dependence on Apple

Softbank Group – Q1 22 Results Reaction: So Many Surprises…a Few Were Positive

By Kirk Boodry

  • Softbank posted record quarterly losses again ($23bn this time) after an aggressive writedown of private investments in the portfolio
  • Vision Fund’s cumulative returns since FY17 are now less than $1bn and valuation losses for WeWork at the parent mean VF and related have lost money
  • The good news is Softbank valuations are more closely aligned with reality whilst a ¥400bn buyback takes some of the sting away but tech values (and ARM) remain a risk

EVOC’s Privatisation Offer of HK$1.75 a Case of Third Time’s the Charm?

By Arun George

  • EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Mr Chen Zhi Lie, the ultimate controlling shareholder, at HK$1.75 per H share. 
  • The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders’ rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  
  • The offer price is final. The offer is attractive in comparison to long-term historical share prices and multiples. We think that Mr Chen’s third privatisation attempt will likely succeed. 

China Internet Weekly (8Aug2022): Tencent, NTES, Kuaishou, Autohome

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent aims to raise shareholdings in an overseas game company and reduce shareholdings in a domestic movie producer.
  • Tencent and NetEase have not got new game licenses and a license black market has emerged in China.
  • Autohome revenue decreased in 4Q22 due to the lockdown in Shanghai.

NTT (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: Forex Gains Flatter Top-Line; Signs of Mobile Stability

By Kirk Boodry

  • Q1 revenue growth was the highest since Q3 17, helped by forex tailwinds and stability in the mobile segment
  • Core telecom results were also positive as mobile erosion was less intensive than peers on better subscriber growth whilst DX demand has kept enterprise sales healthy
  • Management did not change full-year guidance but this almost never happens with a Q1 report and we expect this report is enough to nudge consensus higher

EVOC (2308 HK)’s Merger By Absorption

By David Blennerhassett

  • After shares were suspended on the 1 August, electronics play and property developer EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK) has announced a privatisation at HK$1.75 per H-share.
  • This Offer is by way of a Merger by Absorption, which incorporates a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition.
  • The premium to last close is just 15.13%; however, it is a 42.28% premium to the five-day closing average. This is EVOC’s third privatisation attempt in the past five years. 

Mercari (4385) | No Path to Profitability

By Mark Chadwick

  • Mercari reported full year operating loss of ¥3.7b on sales of ¥147b, while providing no guidance for the coming year 
  • We remain most concerned about the US business, where GMV is declining and losses look entrenched 
  • Mercari JP is also clearly slowing, partly due to post-Covid, but also due to rising competition  

Visa Inc.: New Partnerships & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Visa continued to show resilience in the challenging business environment and actually managed to see a marginal increase in payment volume in the recent result.
  • The company managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings as its total Q3 payment volume increased by 1 point from Q2 and as much as 136% compared to three years ago.
  • They also expanded their partnership with Remitly, one of the top digital remittance service providers in the world, to provide Visa Direct cross-border payments from Canada to bank accounts around the world.

Twitter Inc.: The Data Breach & Other Major Risks

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Twitter has been in the news for a number of wrong reasons off late.
  • The total revenue for the quarter increased by 22% and the total revenue for the year by 37%, respectively, to reach $1.57 billion and $5.08 billion. mDAU increased by 1 million sequentially and by 13% year over year to 217 million, which were in line with its predictions.

Alphabet Inc.: IaaS & Google Cloud Upside

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Alphabet has been a beneficiary of the growth in both travel and retail in the past few months which enabled its Search business to show formidable growth.
  • The company also introduced brand-new ad formats for enhanced visual browsing during searches.
  • Overall, we remain optimistic about their future growth and give an ‘Outperform’ rating with a revised target price.

Cirrus Logic Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Heavy Dependence on Apple

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Cirrus Logic has had an eventful year so far with solid bolt-on M&A and operating momentum.
  • This has been possible through a noteworthy expansion in the product mix and technology of Cirrus Logic.
  • Lastly, it is worth highlighting that Cirrus Logic operates with quite a strong balance sheet with more firepower to pursue diversification attempts further.

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