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TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Super Micro Computer, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Tenstorrent, NetEase Inc, SecureWorks Corp, Geniee Inc, Pureprofile Ltd, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Xiaomi Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hindenburg Strikes Again: SMCI’s 10K Delay Raises Red Flags
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia’s SG Revenue Red Flag; Rise of Custom Silicon; SEMICON Taiwan This Week
  • Tenstorrent – To Chip Away Market Share from Nvidia?
  • [NetEase (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) Review]: Growth Will Materially Accelerate in C2H24 and 2025
  • SecureWorks on the Block Again: Can Dell Finally Sell? – Major Drivers
  • Geniee (6562 JP) – A Positive Turnaround YoY
  • Pureprofile Ltd – Minor changes to FY25f, valuation remains at $0.09/share
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Sep-2024): Supply chain shifts in ASEAN post China
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources, Xiaomi Corp


Hindenburg Strikes Again: SMCI’s 10K Delay Raises Red Flags

By Baptista Research

  • Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has found itself in the crosshairs of controversy following a recent report from Hindenburg Research and the company’s delayed 10-K filing.
  • As the tech giant continues to ride the wave of AI enthusiasm, the latest developments have cast a shadow over its stellar growth narrative.
  • While SMCI’s impressive revenue figures and expanding market share in AI-driven solutions have attracted considerable investor attention, the company’s past accounting missteps, unresolved regulatory concerns, and potential internal control weaknesses suggest a need for heightened caution.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia’s SG Revenue Red Flag; Rise of Custom Silicon; SEMICON Taiwan This Week

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Latest Industry Signals — Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared… Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia’s Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed Names Were a Mixed Bag of Performance
  • Key Events to Watch — SEMICON Taiwan This Week, We Will Be Attending
  • Perspective — NVIDIA’s >5x YoY “Singapore” Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

Tenstorrent – To Chip Away Market Share from Nvidia?

By Douglas Kim

  • Tenstorrent is an AI chip company headed up by its CEO Jim Keller, a chip design legend who has previously worked at AMD, Apple, Intel, and Tesla.
  • Tenstorrent has received numerous funding from major Korean conglomerates including  Hyundai Motor Group and Samsung.
  • According to Tenstorrent, its Galaxy systems are nearly 1/3 less expensive than Nvidia’s DGX system AI servers. 

[NetEase (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) Review]: Growth Will Materially Accelerate in C2H24 and 2025

By Ying Pan

  • NetEase reported C2Q24 top line, GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in line, (5.6%) and (7.3%) vs. our estimates, and in line, (4.0%) and (5.5%) vs. consensus. 
  • We believe game growth will materially accelerate in C2H24 and 2025, based on our projection for Naraka Mobile, Where Winds Meet and the two Marvel games. 
  • We keep TP of US$122 unchanged and maintain BUY .

SecureWorks on the Block Again: Can Dell Finally Sell? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SecureWorks has once again caught the attention of the investment community as its parent company, Dell Technologies reportedly explores a potential sale of the company.
  • This isn’t Dell’s first attempt to offload SecureWorks; previous efforts to find a buyer have not materialized into a deal.
  • However, given the rapidly evolving cybersecurity landscape and the increasing pressure on companies to enhance their digital defenses, SecureWorks could present a compelling acquisition opportunity for the right buyer.

Geniee (6562 JP) – A Positive Turnaround YoY

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Earnings rebounding – Q1 FY3/25 results were positive with the company demonstrating sustained double-digit sales growth YoY, and strong underlying OP growth of 53.2% YoY.
  • Reported OP grew 633.7% YoY, a positive optic related to a one-time reversal of contingent consideration stemming from the acquisition of Zelto Inc.
  • Although the market environment remains challenging Overseas and investment into AI services lowered margins in the Marketing SaaS business, the earnings outlook remains positive given the company targeting positive OP in H2 FY3/25 for the Marketing SaaS business, and strengthening seasonality in advertising demand. 

Pureprofile Ltd – Minor changes to FY25f, valuation remains at $0.09/share

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update report on data analytics company Pureprofile (ASX:PPL) following the release of its audited FY24 accounts which includes confirmation that it delivered a maiden reported NPAT of $0.1m, and an adjusted NPAT of $1.26m, up 25% on the pcp and ahead of our forecast for $1.17m.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for FY24 was $4.4m, down 4% on the pcp, but up 8% excluding the impact of cash short-term-incentive (STI) payments to executives.
  • We note EBITDA was slightly ahead of our forecast for $4.3m and within the company’s guidance range of $4.1m to $4.5m.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Sep-2024): Supply chain shifts in ASEAN post China

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Post-China supply chain reevaluation in ASEAN offers strategic shifts and growth opportunities for businesses.
  • Peak season does not improve 3Q24 memory spot pricing, with overall market trends remaining stable.
  • Generative AI market set to reach $1.5T by 2030, with Taiwan leading in hardware development; software & services also show promising future growth.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources, Xiaomi Corp

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hamamatsu Photonics Kk, SK Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hamamatsu Photonics Placement – Peculiar Timing
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Shui On Land, SK Hynix, Yankuang Energy Group


Hamamatsu Photonics Placement – Peculiar Timing

By Sumeet Singh

  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) aims to raise around US$190m via selling over a 4% stake in Hamamatsu Photonics Kk (6965 JP).
  • This is another cross-shareholding unwind and hence, won’t be a huge surprise. Although given the recent share price weakness, the timing appears peculiar.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Shui On Land, SK Hynix, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: International Business Machines and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • IBM Pulls R&D Units Out of China in Latest Withdrawal by U.S. Firm


IBM Pulls R&D Units Out of China in Latest Withdrawal by U.S. Firm

By Caixin Global

  • IBM Corp. is shutting down two major research and development (R&D) units in China, amid declining business in the country and mirroring a broader trend of U.S. tech firms scaling back their presence in China.

  • The units affected by the pullback are IBM’s China Development Lab (CDL) and China Systems Lab (CSL), both established in 1999.

  • CDL, which focused on application software development, has more than 1,000 employees, while CSL, which focused on system development such as mainframe database, has a team of 695, one IBM worker told Caixin.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Hamamatsu Photonics Kk, Samsung Electronics, NCSOFT Corp, Silergy Corp, Japan Business Systems , Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • NVIDIA’s >5x YoY “Singapore” Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag
  • Hamamatsu Photonics (6965) – Toyota Selling Yet Another Cross-Holding
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-Aug-2024): Samsung’s growth depends on AI, HPC, autos.
  • Potential Price Decline Amplification from NPS’s Appraisal Rights Exercise Against NCSoft
  • Silergy (6415.TT): 2024 Can Be Operating Trough, and Revenue in 2025 Is Expected to Grow by 20-30%.
  • Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – 3Q Follow-Up
  • Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs


NVIDIA’s >5x YoY “Singapore” Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

By William Keating

  • NVIDIA delivered another blockbuster quarter with record revenues of $30 billion, blowing well past the guided $28 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 122% YoY.
  • $5.6 billion in revenues were attributed to Singapore, making up more than 18% of overall revenues and up >5 times YoY
  • What the heck is the city state doing with all of those GPUs?

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965) – Toyota Selling Yet Another Cross-Holding

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close we got news that after a year-plus of Hamamatsu Photonics Kk (6965 JP)‘s sliding stock price, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is selling their 5+% stake.
  • The offering is standard. Probably prices 9 Sep 2024. HP’s amended buyback program and probable index upweights offset most of the offering size over the next several months.
  • So investors have to decide whether they want to catch the falling knife.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-Aug-2024): Samsung’s growth depends on AI, HPC, autos.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Samsung’s foundry service growth is driven by AI, HPC, and automotive sectors, showcasing a diverse and promising market strategy.
  • Meta is set to launch glasses-like MR device in 2027, aiming to revolutionize the way we interact with technology and the digital world.
  • Global OSAT industry is projected to experience significant growth by 2024, fueled by increasing demand for testing and packaging services in the semiconductor market.

Potential Price Decline Amplification from NPS’s Appraisal Rights Exercise Against NCSoft

By Sanghyun Park

  • During NCSoft’s exercise period starting August 14, the spread was tight, with NPS likely to exercise rights if it widens above 5% in the final days.
  • NPS is unlikely to exercise its full 6.3% stake, but may sell 2% if the stock price drops below ₩180,000, widening the spread over 5%.
  • This may increase NCSoft’s division costs and overhang risk, potentially amplifying stock price decline. Monitoring NCSoft’s stock early next week is crucial.

Silergy (6415.TT): 2024 Can Be Operating Trough, and Revenue in 2025 Is Expected to Grow by 20-30%.

By Patrick Liao

  • Company’s 2Q24 overall performance exceeded expectations, and 3Q and 4Q are expected to be flat and to grow by 10-20% per quarter, respectively.
  • With expectations of continued improvement in ASP and cost structure, overall gross profit margin is expected to continue to grow.
  • Gen4 (12″) is mainly applied in EV, AI server, and new energy sectors, as these applications have higher specification requirements.

Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – 3Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • When JBS announced recording an impairment loss associated with the acquisition of NEXTSCAPE on 2Q results, it only revised down the initial FY24/9 forecast for profit attributable to owners of parent from ¥3,450mn → ¥1,500mn, leaving the rest of the forecast unchanged.
  • While the impairment loss was clearly disappointing, it is important to keep in mind this is a non-cash item, and prompt action by JBS management in writing down the entire remaining portion of unamortized GW minimized future downside risk.
  • As described on the next page, 3Q cumulative (9M) consolidated net sales rose +29.0% YoY, and operating profit rose +28.5% YoY, relative to full-term initial guidance for FY24/9 consolidated net sales +12.4%, and operating profit +21.6%. 

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

By Joe Jasper

  • Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan’s TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe’s EURO STOXX 50.
  • We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
  • Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sino American Silicon Products, NVIDIA Corp, Dell Technologies , Huawei Technology, Red Cat Holdings , 4Paradigm and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Sino-American Silicon Early Look – Another Well Flagged GDR Offering in the Works
  • NVIDIA Delivers Stunning Q2 Results & Declares $50B Buyback; Yet Shares Plunge 8% Post Results
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Aug-2024): AI boosts MLCC demand, industry set to grow.
  • Huawei’s Smart Car Unit Valued $16 Billion After Investment From Avatr
  • Cedar Grove’s Paul Cerro on what makes $RCAT drones unique + odds for winning SRR contract
  • 4Paradigm: Near-Term Selling Pressure May Persist As IPO Lockup Ends Next Month


Sino-American Silicon Early Look – Another Well Flagged GDR Offering in the Works

By Clarence Chu

  • Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT) is looking to raise at least US$338m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • In late Feb 2024, Sino-American Silicon (SAS) announced its board’s resolution to issue up to 55m common shares via a GDR offering.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

NVIDIA Delivers Stunning Q2 Results & Declares $50B Buyback; Yet Shares Plunge 8% Post Results

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • NVIDIA’s Q2 revenue soared 122% to $30.04 billion, exceeding estimates, driven by unprecedented demand for AI-driven data center chips. 
  • The data center segment grew 154% YoY, generating $26.3 billion, reflecting NVIDIA’s strong position in AI hardware with major contributions from cloud providers. 
  • Despite approving a $50 billion stock buyback, NVIDIA’s shares fell 8% after-hours due to concerns over future chip supply and broader market trends, though the stock is up 150% YTD.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Aug-2024): AI boosts MLCC demand, industry set to grow.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • AI advancements driving demand for MLCCs, leading to growth in passive component industry and shaping future technology trends.
  • Super Micro Computer faces delay in annual report filing amid allegations of accounting manipulation, raising concerns in the tech market.
  • Industry predictions for Semicon India 2024 and updates from Intel and Sony on upgrades in car cockpits and price increase on PS5 due to rising component costs. Taiwan drone market facing potential delay due to China’s dominance in crucial modules.

Huawei’s Smart Car Unit Valued $16 Billion After Investment From Avatr

By Caixin Global

  • The valuation of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd’s smart car unit has surged to 115 billion yuan ($16 billion) only seven months after its launch, following a recent investment.

  • Yinwang Intelligent Technology Co. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huawei founded in January, has agreed to sell a 10% stake to Avatr Technology Inc., an electric vehicle (EV) startup backed by China’s state-owned automaker Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. Ltd. (000625.SZ -1.54%) and battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL). 

  • Avatr agreed to pay 11.5 billion yuan for the stake, with the payment to be made in three installments, contingent on conditions such as the introduction of Huawei’s smart car technologies and talent to Yinwang.

Cedar Grove’s Paul Cerro on what makes $RCAT drones unique + odds for winning SRR contract

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Paul Cerro, founder of the Cedar Grove Empire, discusses his investment in Redcat Holdings
  • Redcat is a US-based drone manufacturer specializing in unmanned drones for military purposes
  • Redcat is poised to potentially win a lucrative US Army contract, driving significant upside potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4Paradigm: Near-Term Selling Pressure May Persist As IPO Lockup Ends Next Month

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Beijing-Based 4Paradigm shares have underperformed the Hang Seng Index (+4.3%) in 2024 with shares down ~20% year-to-date. IPO investors are down ~28%.
  • I expect near-term selling pressure on the stock as IPO lockup ends in September and at least 265M shares will be available for sale by the end of next month.
  • 4Paradigm has made considerable progress and with a clear profitability trajectory, the stock looks undervalued relative to peers in Mainland China and worldwide.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Apple , Allfunds Group, AAC Technologies Holdings, Cisco Systems, Samsung Electronics, Zoom Video Communications Inc, iQIYI Inc, SaverOne 2014 and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • All Eyes on Nvidia
  • Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)
  • IOS18 Unveils Major Updates, Delayed AI Features Paving Path for a Significant Upgrade Cycle
  • Misunderstood Takeover Target
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 28)
  • Cisco Systems Inc.: Networking and Security Symbiosis
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Aug-2024): Taiwan’s defense sector missed opportunity in arms race.
  • Zoom Video Communications: Focus on Upmarket and Customer Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • [iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$3.7) TP Change]: Take Out Value Is Still the Key Support for IQ
  • SVRE: Domestic operations struggled in the first half of 2024. The company’s focus remains on controlling costs.


All Eyes on Nvidia

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • This Wednesday, after the Wall Street close, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will release its second-quarter figures, concluding the current earnings season. The stock has returned 155% YTD.
  • Nvidia’s results will be crucial in determining whether its stock recovery continues (+25% since its August 5 low and 11.8% below its all-time high of $140.76 on June 20).
  • Historically, when Nvidia’s earnings and guidance have been strong, its stock has rebounded by c. 30% and over in four occasions.

Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings preview. It might be the first time (ever) and hopefully the last time.
  • Two critical companies report this week. I’ll start with Marvell, the less important but the one I like, and then talk about some exciting dynamics at Nvidia that could lead to volatility and why it might not even matter.
  • Marvell has always been a favorite of this newsletter. I won’t lie; I root for the hometown on this one. Inphi was my first paid post, and it worked out with a buyout by Marvell only two weeks later.

IOS18 Unveils Major Updates, Delayed AI Features Paving Path for a Significant Upgrade Cycle

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • IOS 18 beta offers new Home Screen and Control Centre customization; AI features like Advanced Siri Capabilities delayed until iOS 18.1, set to arrive later this year. 
  • Morgan Stanley forecasts Apple will ship five hundred million iPhones over two years, driven by the AI-powered Apple Intelligence, with a 4%-5% growth in iPhone average selling prices. 
  • Only 15% of current Apple devices support new AI features, pushing a significant upgrade cycle; 24% of iPads are compatible, suggesting a mini-upgrade cycle in the tablet market.

Misunderstood Takeover Target

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open to selling at the right price.
  • Since listing, Allfunds’ total return has been -59%, driven by interest rate hikes, major distributors shifting to low-risk assets, stock overhang from top shareholders, and low share liquidity.
  • ChatGPTAllfunds’ forward P/E of 12.9x (vs. peers at 18.6x) and 9.5% FCF yield undervalue its strong business model, momentum, market share gains, robust cash conversion, and solid balance sheet.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 28)

By David Mudd


Cisco Systems Inc.: Networking and Security Symbiosis

By Baptista Research

  • Cisco Systems, Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, demonstrating solid performance despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
  • The company closed the fiscal year with $13.6 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter and $53.8 billion for the year.
  • Both annualized recurring revenue and subscription revenue grew, reflecting Cisco’s strategic pivot towards a more sustainable, subscription-based model.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Aug-2024): Taiwan’s defense sector missed opportunity in arms race.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Taiwan’s defense sector is seen as undervalued, representing a missed opportunity in the global arms race.
  • Malaysian officials hold a meeting with Tesla, but plans for a factory in the country are considered unlikely.
  • Retailers are using ICT and personnel to drive growth in green energy trading, while Samsung leads the gaming monitor market.

Zoom Video Communications: Focus on Upmarket and Customer Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Zoom Video Communications delivered strong financial performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, surpassing market expectations and demonstrating resilience in a competitive landscape.
  • The company’s revenue rose by 2.1% year-over-year to $1.16 billion, slightly exceeding analyst forecasts.
  • Adjusted earnings per share also impressed, reaching $1.39, which was significantly higher than the anticipated $1.21.

[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$3.7) TP Change]: Take Out Value Is Still the Key Support for IQ

By Ying Pan

  • IQiyi reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income inline, 5.0% and 18% vs. consensus. 
  • The short-term reason is executional, but long-term reason is sustained competition from well-funded rivals and short video platforms. 
  • We keep the stock at BUY and cut TP to US$3.7.

SVRE: Domestic operations struggled in the first half of 2024. The company’s focus remains on controlling costs.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • The company released results for the first half of 2024 which were severely impacted by the slowdown of economic activity in Israel.
  • The company announced a small acquisition (no upfront cost) of a product line from a business that it attempted to acquire last December.
  • We believe this could be a nice addition to the company’s driver safety suite of products.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kioxia Holdings , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, NVIDIA Corp, LG Corp, Intel Corp, Baidu, Advanced Micro Devices, KT Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kioxia & Tokyo Metro: Japan’s Largest IPOs Since 2018 Expected This October
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 Top Clients
  • Initial Thoughts on the Kioxia IPO – Impact on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics
  • [Q2 Earnings Preview] NVIDIA To Maintain AI GPU Leadership As Revenues Surge
  • LG Corp: Three Key Catalysts + NAV Valuation
  • Activist Investors Circling Intel? The Reasons Behind The Chipmaker’s Defensive Strategy!
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$80) TP Change]: Baidu’s Problem Is Not All Cyclical…Maintain SELL
  • Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?
  • AMD’s Latest Acquisition Of ZT Systems: A Challenge to NVIDIA’s AI Dominance?
  • KT Corp (030200 KS): Foreign Room Drops Below Critical Level; Passive Selling to Come


Kioxia & Tokyo Metro: Japan’s Largest IPOs Since 2018 Expected This October

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Kioxia and Tokyo Metro with valuations of ~$10bn and ~$4.6bn are expected to be listed in October 2024 and become the largest Japanese IPOs since Softbank Corp (9434 JP) in 2018.
  • Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is currently forecasted to fail fast entries of both Global indices due to low IPO free float. 
  • Tokyo Metro is expected to be added via fast-entry in one Global Index because of higher IPO free float. Forecasted demand of ~$140m is expected on the fifth trading day.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 Top Clients

By Patrick Liao


Initial Thoughts on the Kioxia IPO – Impact on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics

By Douglas Kim

  • Kioxia is getting ready to complete its IPO in Japan as soon as in October. Kioxia’s valuation is expected to exceed JPY 1.5 trillion (about USD 10.3 billion).
  • SK Hynix’s stake in Kioxia (through Bain led consortium) is 19%. SK Hynix’s stake in Kioxia would rise to 34% if the CBs are converted into equity. 
  • The IPO of Kioxia has mixed implications for SK Hynix which is a major shareholder. However, the IPO of Kioxia has a more direct negative impact on Samsung Electronics.

[Q2 Earnings Preview] NVIDIA To Maintain AI GPU Leadership As Revenues Surge

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • NVIDIA’s dominance in AI GPUs, with 80% market share, has driven data center revenue growth by 427% YoY, with analysts expecting a 112% YoY revenue increase to $28.68 billion.
  • NVIDIA’s GPUs are crucial for AI workloads, with significant adoption by cloud giants like AWS and Microsoft Azure. AI-specific chips are expected to drive 40% of 2024 revenue.
  • 47 out of 61 analysts rate NVIDIA a strong buy, with average 12-month price targets showing 13% upside, reflecting confidence in its AI leadership despite potential market volatility.

LG Corp: Three Key Catalysts + NAV Valuation

By Douglas Kim

  • Three key catalysts for LG Corp include potential inclusion in Korea Value Up Index, an IPO of LG CNS in 1Q 2025, and an increasing probability of higher shareholder returns. 
  • An IPO of LG CNS is likely in 1Q 2025. LG CNS is currently valued at about 7 trillion won and LG Corp has a 50% stake. 
  • Our base case NAV valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests implied NAV of 15.3 trillion won or NAV per share of 96,957 won, which is 19.8% higher than current price.

Activist Investors Circling Intel? The Reasons Behind The Chipmaker’s Defensive Strategy!

By Baptista Research

  • Intel Corporation, once the undisputed leader in the semiconductor industry, is currently grappling with a series of challenges that have significantly impacted its market position and share price.
  • Amidst these struggles, Intel is reportedly working with advisors like Morgan Stanley to prepare a defense against potential activist investors, a clear signal of the growing pressure the company faces.
  • The need for such a defense highlights the precarious situation Intel finds itself in—a company in the throes of operational difficulties, financial underperformance, and strategic missteps.

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$80) TP Change]: Baidu’s Problem Is Not All Cyclical…Maintain SELL

By Ying Pan

  • BIDU reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income inline, 5.6% and 7.6% vs. our estimate and inline, 10% and 8.4% vs. consensus. 
  • Weak economy is only part of the problem. Weak monetization exists across the entire product line. 
  • We cut the TP to US$80 and reiterate SELL rating.

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
  • We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
  • After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 

AMD’s Latest Acquisition Of ZT Systems: A Challenge to NVIDIA’s AI Dominance?

By Baptista Research

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has made headlines with its recent acquisition of ZT Systems for $4.9 billion, a move that signals the company’s intent to become a formidable force in the AI space.
  • As the industry leader, NVIDIA has long dominated the AI hardware market, but AMD’s latest strategic acquisition could shift the competitive landscape.
  • This acquisition is not just about expanding AMD’s capabilities; it’s about positioning the company as a viable alternative to NVIDIA in the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market.

KT Corp (030200 KS): Foreign Room Drops Below Critical Level; Passive Selling to Come

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign investors have continued buying KT Corp (030200 KS) and the stock has outperformed SK Telecom (017670 KS), though not by a lot. 
  • Foreign buying has pushed foreign room in KT Corp (030200 KS) below 3.75% and the stock could be deleted from a global index at the next rebalance.
  • There will be some interesting trading dynamics in KT Corp (030200 KS) over the next couple of months and there will be trading opportunities versus its peers.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Silverlake Axis , Shinko Electric Industries, Nuvoton Technology, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Nanya Technology, Kioxia Holdings , Intel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Voluntary Unconditional Offer
  • Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Aug 2024); Net Breaks the 28-Week Buying Streak on ETF Selling
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV DEL Likely; Shin Kong M&A Consequences
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron’s Taiwan Expansion
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Expected in Sep
  • Kioxia IPO Early Re-Look – Better Placed This Time Around
  • Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game


Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Voluntary Unconditional Offer

By Arun George

  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from the Goh family and Ikhlas Capital. The default cash consideration is S$0.36, a 20.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The combi consideration is S$0.30 in cash and one new redeemable preference share (RPS) in the offeror, which will be mandatorily redeemed after five calendar years at S$0.18 per RPS.
  • While not declared final, the offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid. The offeror is likely to use the voluntary delisting method to privatise Silverlake.

Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) offered a progress report on the approvals for the JIC Consortium Tender Offer originally “scheduled” to start in late August 2024.
  • “Procedures and Steps Necessary under the competition laws of Vietnam and China have not been completed” so the Tender Offeror expects to commence the Tender Offer in/after late January 2025.
  • The announcement appears to suggest no update is likely for another five months or until the Tender Offer starts. That will introduce questions of further delay.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The tender start has been delayed from late August to around late January 2025.
  • The delay was due to outstanding China SAMR and Vietnam regulatory approvals. The stretched timeline suggests that SAMR will likely conditionally approve the deal. 
  • While Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s underperformance lowers the deal’s break price, timing, not break risk, remains the key concern. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/7.5%. 

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) is a near certain deletion from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September.
  • Passive trackers will need to sell 20m shares in Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT). That is over 10% of float and the stock could continue to remain under pressure. 
  • The potential deletion still appears to be under positioned. There could be renewed selling in the stock over the next few weeks.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Aug 2024); Net Breaks the 28-Week Buying Streak on ETF Selling

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was a net seller this past week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.
  • Gross volumes remain very low. Net volumes de minimis. Very August-ish. No sectors stood out. 
  • The largest net buy was CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) where the net buying was the same size as the fifth largest net sell (Tencent (700 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV DEL Likely; Shin Kong M&A Consequences

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
  • Today is the base date for the September 2024 index rebal event and the expected ADDs/DELs  discussed in this insight are our final index change expectations.
  • Separately, we also have a look at the T50/100 index implications of the Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger situation.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron’s Taiwan Expansion

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nvidia, Dell, Marvell results coming out this week.. Apple iPhone 16 Reveal September 9th?
  • Micron progressing on potential Taiwan capacity expansion due to strong HBM DRAM demand
  • AMD acquires a key U.S. server systems integrator, expanding its enterprise server opportunity in a market including Taiwan’s server ODM players such as Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Inventec, Quanta, and Compal.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Expected in Sep

By Brian Freitas


Kioxia IPO Early Re-Look – Better Placed This Time Around

By Sumeet Singh

  • Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) aims to list in Japan by Oct 2024 at a valuation of over US$10bn, as per media reports. 
  • Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers
  • In this note, we take an early look at the possible listing.

Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.
  • Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividend
  • There was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shift Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Softbank Group, Uchi Technologies, Bharti Airtel and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift (3697): Profitability Rebound Underway
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Maintaining Strong Premium; UMC Headroom Continues to Decrease
  • SoftBank Group (9984 JP): A Bigger Bounty Awaits with Swiggy’s Upcoming IPO
  • Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK): Q2 2024 Profitability Resilient, Guidance Weak
  • Bharti Airtel Positioning Continues to Strengthen


Shift (3697): Profitability Rebound Underway

By Michael Allen

  • A massive shortage of IT professionals combined with Shift’s overwhelming dominance of the labor market should drive 20% annual revenue growth through 2030. 
  • But Shift missed consensus profitability estimates 3 consecutive quarters, and the share price is down 67% in 12 months, compared to an 18% rise in the median peer. 
  • In our view, a recovery in profitability is already underway, and shares are at least 45% undervalued

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Maintaining Strong Premium; UMC Headroom Continues to Decrease

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +15.4% Premium; Wait for Closer to 20% Before Opening Fresh Short
  • UMC: +1.2% Premium; Can Consider Shorting at 1.5% or Higher; Headroom Continues to Decrease
  • ASE: +5.2% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before New Trade

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): A Bigger Bounty Awaits with Swiggy’s Upcoming IPO

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP)  could see its USD450 million investment in India food delivery player, Swiggy , triple in value with the upcoming IPO, reportedly valuing it at USD15 bn.
  • SoftBank Group, generated a total return, net of investments, of USD1.4 billion with the listing of Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) , Unicommerce (UNIECOM IN), and BrainBees Solutions, this month. 
  • If Swiggy’s IPO reaches valuations closer to Zomato’s, SoftBank could reap even greater rewards than from its recent portfolio company listings.

Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK): Q2 2024 Profitability Resilient, Guidance Weak

By Sameer Taneja

  • Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK) reported Q2 2024 revenue/profit up 2.2%/13.4% YoY. In USD terms, revenue declined 3% YoY. 
  • Aided by the strengthening of the USD/MYR in Q2 (which has reversed slightly), EBITDA margins improved by 250 bps to 65.7% and net margins by 540 bps to 54.5%.
  • The company maintained guidance of a high single-digit revenue decline (in USD). The stock trades at 13x PE with a 7.8% dividend yield. 

Bharti Airtel Positioning Continues to Strengthen

By Steven Holden

  • The bull market in Bharti Airtel positioning shows no signs of slowing down, with average fund weights and the percentage of funds invested in Bharti Airtel reaching 15-year highs
  • Over the past six months, ownership increases have been the highest among Indian peers, propelling Bharti Airtel to the 7th most widely owned stock in India.
  • In the last six months, 27 funds have initiated new positions, with no closures, and notable new investors include Fidelity, GQG, and Morgan Stanley.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Oddity Tech , Applied Materials, Coherent Inc, Fabrinet, Lumentum Holdings, Paycor HCM and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Oddity Tech: ~34% Downside Risk As Growth Will Slow Down
  • Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Benefitting From The Market Demand in ICAPS and Semiconductors! – Major Drivers
  • Coherent Corp.: How Is The Management Executing Portfolio Optimization and Operational Execution Improvements! – Major Drivers
  • Fabrinet (FN): A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers
  • Lumentum Holdings Inc.: Expansion in High-Speed Optical Transceivers & Other Major Drivers
  • Paycor HCM Inc.: Their Expanded Enterprise and Embedded Partnerships Is Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers


Oddity Tech: ~34% Downside Risk As Growth Will Slow Down

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Oddity Tech, owner of famous global brands IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild, is growing slower than in 2022 and 2023. The overall growth will slow down to ~20% y/y in 2025.
  • According to my estimates and SEC filings, private equity firm L Catterton, the largest shareholder, reduced its stake in Oddity Tech to 18.4%, down from ~42% prior to an IPO.
  • I see ~34% downside risk in Oddity Tech stock as growth will slow down and the company will launch new brands only in the second half of 2025.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Benefitting From The Market Demand in ICAPS and Semiconductors! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Applied Materials has recorded robust financial results for its third quarter of fiscal year 2024, maintaining momentum with record revenues and solid earnings near the upper end of the guidance range.
  • The company is aptly positioned amid extensive secular growth trends reshaping technology, primarily due to increasing demands across key sectors like AI, IoT, and clean energy, which require foundational advancements in semiconductor technology.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Coherent Corp.: How Is The Management Executing Portfolio Optimization and Operational Execution Improvements! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Coherent Corp. concluded its fiscal year 2024 with financial results reflecting a positive trajectory, showing a 9% sequential and year-over-year revenue growth primarily driven by robust demand in datacom transceivers for AI data-centric deployments.
  • This was further accentuated by Non-GAAP gross margin expansion of 145 basis points compared to the previous quarter, underpinned by resolution of prior transitory issues and a substantial growth in Non-GAAP EPS by 16% sequentially and almost 50% year-over-year.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Fabrinet (FN): A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fabrinet concluded the fiscal year 2024 on a strong note with record revenue and earnings per share, reflecting robust execution across its business segments.
  • For the fourth quarter, the company posted revenue of $753 million, exceeding its guidance and marking a 15% year-over-year increase and a 3% increase sequentially.
  • Non GAAP earnings per share for the quarter came in at $2.41, also surpassing the projected range.

Lumentum Holdings Inc.: Expansion in High-Speed Optical Transceivers & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumentum Holdings, a provider of optical and photonic solutions, reported mixed performance in its fourth quarter fiscal year 2024 results.
  • The company experienced a decrease in both the Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech segments but made significant progress in expanding its customer base and advancing its technology for future growth, particularly in high-speed optical transceivers and datacom components.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Paycor HCM Inc.: Their Expanded Enterprise and Embedded Partnerships Is Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Paycor’s fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, which ended on June 30, 2024, reflects a company strategically navigating its growth amidst an evolving market landscape.
  • With an 18% revenue growth for the quarter and a 19% increase for the fiscal year, Paycor appears to have successfully executed its strategic initiatives.
  • The company managed to increase the average number of employees on its platform by 9% and expanded the amount earned per employee per month by 6%, signaling efficient scaling and value addition.

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