TMT/Internet

• China just announced game approval for November batch after one month break. The number of games approved is inline with the previous three months.
• Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
• Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game. It is more symbolic than financially material. Sentiments are turning slightly but it is not out of the wood yet.

• Weimob’s share price more than doubled in a month on encouraging 3Q preliminary data and improved sentiment towards China assets
• We explore socio-economic factors resulting in the slow ramp up of China SaaS sector , size Weimob’s TAM by drawing insights from Alibaba and determine its valuation in  two-piece report 
• In the first part, we argue that inadequate cost or efficiency competitiveness of SaaS solutions over existing labor-based or manual processes have been a key drag

• Alibaba unveiled an upsized buyback plan this week and stock rallied despite a revenue miss
• Sentiment in China is changing with tweaks to the Covid strategy and improving economic outlook
• Call buying has elevated upside vols providing trading opportunites for both directional and volatility traders

• The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int’l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
• As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
• Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services

• This is our first report on Taiwan Semiconductor, the world’s largest dedicated contract chip manufacturer.
• The company delivered a mixed set of results for the past quarter with revenues below expectations as it continues to see softness in the consumer end-market category.
• TSMC’s other end market categories, like data centers and the automotive industry, are currently stable and it did manage to deliver an earnings beat.

• Bumble delivered a mixed set of third-quarter results as it failed to meet market expectations on the revenue front but managed an earnings beat.
• The company produced a decent top-line growth of 17% year over year in Q3, driven by 28% growth for the Bumble App.
• The revenue growth would have been 10 points higher and Bumble App revenue growth would have been 5 points higher after adjusting for forex and the situation in Ukraine.

• After distributing over 450m of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) shares to its shareholders late last year, Tencent (700 HK) took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.
• Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m Meituan (3690 HK) shares to Tencent shareholders.
• Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.

• Grab (GRAB US)  reported 3Q2022 results yesterday. 3Q revenue increased 143% YoY to $382m (vs consensus $348m) while reported an adjusted EBITDA (negative) of $161m (vs consensus $202m).
• The highlight of 3Q2022 earnings was the break-even of deliveries business as well as improvement in Mobilities financials driven by reduction in incentives (as % of GMV).
• Though the company called it a strong set of results, Grab’s share price moved up by 0.64% could be an indication that the profitability may not be sustainable.

• Appier has been by far the best performing small-cap growth stock in Japan this year
• The company is gaining market share overseas, massively augmenting the Total Addressable Market
• It’s high growth, rising margins, and growing TAM makes this a top stock for SaaS investors

• TSMC ADR’s premium has reverted after going as high as 10.9%.
• Hon Hai’s London-listed GDRs are trading at a historically rare discount.
• UMC ADRs also look interesting relative to the Taiwan shares given their rare discount.

• Tencent announced to transfer 958 million shares of Meituan as a special dividend
• This distribution is similar to the previous JD distribution in Dec 2021
• The transfer of Meituan shares can provide potential two entry points of the stock. 

• When you look around the world for a big, liquid, globally accepted safe haven, there is only one, and that is gold, which continues to reassert its status as the asset of last resort.
• Pre-1970, in the days of the gold standard, gold formally enjoyed this role.
• Today, after a 50-year break, the free market is putting gold back onto the pedestal where it belongs. 

• Delta Taiwan has outperformed Delta Thailand, but remains at a historically low relative valuation.
• China concerns, which may have impacted Delta Taiwan on a relative basis, appear to be incrementally improving.
• We continue to favor Delta Taiwan vs. Delta Thailand, historical data implies Delta Taiwan is more likely to outperform Delta Thailand than vice-versa.

• Singapore private market exchange ADDX has secured US$20 million in a pre-series B extension round.

• The new capital injection comes on top of the US$58 million that ADDX initially raised in May, the company said in a release.

• Regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, ADDX uses blockchain and smart contract tech to automate the manual processes in private market investing.

• MOGUL.sg’s 3D map supports searches with an immersive experience to help prospective buyers visualise the properties and their surrounding areas better.

• MOGUL.sg, an AI-driven property search portal in Singapore, has raised S$9 (US$6.5) million in its first-ever funding round.
• Launched in 2018, MOGUL.sg aims to make property searches easy with smart keywords, property tagging, and a specially curated agent concierge team to assist homeowners.

• Privy has 30M+ verified users and 1,800 enterprise consumers and processes 40M+ digital signatures per year.

• Jakarta-based digital signature and identity company Privy has secured US$48 million in a Series C funding round.
• Privy will use the capital to support the development of its new consumer and enterprise products. The company also intends to expand into overseas markets to accelerate growth further.

• Tencent (700 HK) has announced that it will pay an interim dividend via an in-specie distribution of the bulk of its holding in Meituan (3690 HK). 
• Passive FTSE and MSCI trackers will receive shares in Meituan (3690 HK) from their Tencent (700 HK) holdings and they will not need to trade anything in the market.
• First it was JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), now it is Meituan (3690 HK). The market will be looking for other stocks held by Tencent (700 HK) that could be next.

• In mid-August at mid-day, a Reuters article suggested Tencent (700 HK) would seek to divest its $24bn stake in Meituan (3690 HK) this year. The stock fell 9% that afternoon.
• The general underlying suggestion was that regulators wanted them to sell. Other articles suggested later both aspects were “untrue” 
• With Q3 earnings, Tencent today announced a Jan23 distribution (Mar23 settlement) of 958,121,562 Meituan shares (1 for every 10 Tencent shares held). There are significant flow and index implications.

• On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent also declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
• The share distribution follows the template of the US$16bn worth of JD.com shares that Tencent paid out after its dividend announcement at the end of 2021.
• In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal.

• Sea Ltd (SE US) shares were up 36% yesterday following a relatively small top-line beat of 4.8% and a narrower-than-expected operating loss of $495.6m (consensus: $581.9) through rigorous cost-cutting.
• The share price move sets-up nicely to make gains on the short-side, as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting-down necessary expenses such as logistics and senior management cash compensation.
• We estimate the fair value of Sea Ltd at around $10.0bn EV compared to the current EV of $33.1bn, which implies a downside of 66% to Sea’s post-3Q22 price.

• There are 11 inclusions and 11 exclusions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance to be implemented at the close on 8 December.
• We had forecast most of the changes (10 adds and 9 deletes), so there are a few surprises. The inclusion of SillaJen Inc (215600 KS) is the biggest one.
• The adds to the index become short sell eligible from the open of trading on 9 December while the deletions will not be short sell eligible from the same time.

• For KOSDAQ 150, SillaJen and WCP made it to the index. As for deletions, Intron Biotechnology, Ebest I&S, and Devsisters are additional names to leave the index through regular review.
• Lotte Confectionery and Samyang Holdings do not have sizeable DTV. And they were fully expected. Nevertheless, the passive impact is so significant that the LONG/SHORT approach still seems valid.
• We should focus on KOSDAQ 150 inclusions whose return has been high due to the inflow to secure a borrow pool for short-selling on top of the preemptive rebalancing flow.

• Tencent (700 HK) reported 3Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue decreased 1.6% YoY to RMB140.1bn (vs consensus RMB140.0bn) while adjusted OP declined 0.2% YoY to RMB28.4bn.
• Revenue from both Internet VAS and Online Advertising declined YoY during the quarter. Social networks revenue declined YoY for the first time by 1.9%.
• Tencent also announced that it will distribute majority of its shareholding on Meituan (3690 HK) to its shareholders in dividends similar to the special dividend of its stake in JD.com.

• Revenue decreased by 1.6% YoY in 3Q22, less than a decrease of 3.1% YoY in 2Q22.
• A governmental media gave positive comment to game industry for first time.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 52% for year end 2023.

• Polygon added to Disney Accelerator program. Fashion and payments companies add to the recent partnerships.
• Polygon also added to the recently partnerships with Instagram NFTs.
• In a recent article, I advised buying Disney for eventual growth in the metaverse. Polygon (MATIC-USD) is a crypto project that has been making waves with a series of big-name corporate partnerships, including Disney.

• This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
• The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
• Today we are flagging Plug Power, Nvidia, Palantir, and Roblox

• Overnight, Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) announced that it held 60.06m shares (US$4.43bn) of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) as of 30 September.
• That caused the ADR to spike after-hours and the local shares have rallied 8% today to close the gap with the ADR.
• The ADR premium is trading near the lows and with Berkshire buying up a substantial chunk, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR should trade at a bigger premium to Taiwan Semiconductor (2330).

• This insight will discuss the impact of Buffett’s investment in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS).
• We believe that Buffett’s sizeable investment in TSMC is likely to have a positive impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
• This would be similar to how Buffett’s investment in the Japanese trading companies which has had a positive impact on the major Korean trading companies. 

• The last leg of Sea Ltd (SE US)’s original bull thesis is about to break with Shopee’s revenue expected to start declining from 3Q22 onwards.
• However, a lower-than-expected operating loss, driven by cost-cutting could get the bulls excited for a short while following the 3Q22 results due later this week.
• With the business remaining unprofitable after cost-cutting, we think 3Q22 results could be another opportunity to profit on the short-side as the FV of Sea could be around $10bn EV.

• Bain Capital-backed Chindata Group (CD US) is on the move after Bloomberg flagged – again – interest from industry players.
• This time, SOE-backed China Merchants Group is understood to be mulling a takeover of Chindata. Shares are up 23% since that article earlier this month.
• Back in April, Bloomberg mentioned GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US), PE outfit PAG, and EQT AB (EQT SS)-backed EdgeConneX were rumoured to be interested in merging with Chindata. 

• Chindata Group (CD US)  is the leading carrier-neutral hyperscale data center solutions provider in Asia Pacific emerging markets.
• At the beginning of the month, Bloomberg reported a takeover offer for Chindata from China Merchants Group, which is a state-owned company.
• Several state-owned companies have shown interest towards acquiring data centers and data center companies, which is likely to be in line with China’s strategy of digitization.

• Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has entered into a binding agreement with Alludo at A$2.00 per share via a scheme or an off-market takeover, with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.
• This is a good move by the Board to force Potentia to improve its off-market takeover bid of A$1.80 per share. Alludo can leverage synergies to support a higher bid.
• The shares are trading through Alludo’s terms as there is an expectation of Potentia returning with improved terms. The break fee implies that Potentia needs to offer at least A$2.02.

• Dunamu may not be in a financial situation that will allow it to hold HYBE shares. With FTX’s liquidity crisis, Upbit’s liquidity management risk will inevitably rise to the surface.
• Doubts about whether the size of Upbit’s assets is sufficiently absorbing the shock of a bank run are still strongly raised in the local market.
• These concerns are likely to affect HYBE’s share price as the December 9 release approaches, and yes, we need to design short position setups aimed at this.

• Schneider increased its cash offer by 4% to 3,225p/share, 47% premium, implied equity value of c.£9,863m and EV of £10,569m, 27.8x EV/Fwd EBIT. Schneider said the sweetened bid is final.
• The deal seems dilutive for Schneider: it would mean an implied Fwd P/E of 31.4x vs. 18.7x for Schneider and should increase Schneider’s debt leverage to 1.9x.
• The increased offer had been anticipated as the spread had been positive since the offer announcement. Gross spread has now turned negative and is -1.91% (including dividend) as of 14 November. Long.

• Palantir delivered a mixed set of results in the last quarter.
• Its $478 million in revenue surpassed Wall Street expectations but the company missed out on the earnings expectations of analysts.
• U.S. commercial business expanded for the ninth consecutive quarter, up 53% yearly.

• Time flies in crypto. If you swap “years” for “hours” in this quote from Marvin, the Paranoid Android from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, you get a glimpse of what crypto has been like in recent weeks. 
• “The first ten million years were the worst,” said Marvin, “and the second ten million years, they were the worst too. The third ten million years I didn’t enjoy at all. After that, I went into a bit of a decline.”
• In the last few weeks, FTX has exploded, and somehow it keeps exploding. 

• Headline 2QFY22 results for Softbank Group were in the black, largely due to the Alibaba stake sale, but the group’s three funds registered an aggregate USD10bn of valuation losses
• FTX’s write-down to zero will cost Softbank’s Vision Fund 2 USD100m in 3Q22, our main concern is what the VC funding downturn means for portfolio valuations in the coming quarter
• The group’s NAV discount has now tightened meaningfully; we believe that this makes it less advantageous for management to announce another share buy-back programme

• In Nov 2021, Paytm raised around US$2.2bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its IPO. 
• The company is backed by Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and counts Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US) among its investors. 
• In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.

• NetEase and Activision Blizzard will possibly terminate their cooperation next January.
• Singles’ Day sales were not very successful for e-commerce apps such as Alibaba and JD.com.
• IQiyi announced a revenue share rule to short TV series producers, including cost per mille and membership fee.

• Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)’s litigation and trading update resulted in the spread to Thoma Bravo’s A$2.10 offer widening to 7.7%. The scheme meeting is on 25 November.
• There is no chance that the MAC clause will be triggered due to the downbeat trading update. However, the update is softening the stance of some of the retail dissenters.
• There is a small chance of a bump as peers have re-rated. Nevertheless, the low spread prior to the update suggested that the risk of the NO vote was minimal.

• Bloomberg reported on Friday that GoTo (GOTO IJ) is planning to cut more than 1k jobs across all its divisions to cutdown its costs and improve its financials.
• Though GoTo’s top line has continued to expand, the company continues to burn cash and the losses have further widened during the recent quarters.
• GoTo’s shares rose 11.7% during Friday’s trade, however, share price is still down by about 45%  from the company’s IPO price.

• Adobe rival Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)  has announced KKR (via Alludo) has firmed its $2.00/share Offer, by way of a Scheme, in tandem with an off-market takeover.
• Both the Scheme and takeover are subject to FIRB and MACs/prescribed occurrences. The takeover is subject to a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. The proposals have the unanimous support of Nitro’s board.
• The Transaction Booklet is expected to be despatched to shareholders in early February 2023, with a Scheme Meeting expected to be held in March 2023.

• In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) (go long) and Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS) (go short).
• NCSoft is currently trading at lower valuation multiples (in terms of EV/EBITDA and P/E) than Netmarble, which we believe is not justified.
• One of the key risk factors of Netmarble is that it could be excluded from the MSCI Korea Index in 2023/2024.

Softbank Group (SBG) has delivered acceptable Q2/22-23 results. Despite the large loss on investments, the company monetised an even greater amount of Alibaba shares to record a large quarterly net gain. As a result, the financial risk profile did not deteriorate. LTV was mostly stable q-o-q, improving since March 2022. Liquidity has strengthened, and now covers four years of planned bond redemptions.

The significant debt reduction and acceleration of share buybacks showed that SBG is trying to balance shareholders’ and creditors’ interests. In the past, SBG appeared more aligned towards shareholders’ interests, with frequent mentions of the share price’s discount to NAV, as well as large share purchases since 2016.

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) disclosed that it has acquired about 60.1m shares in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US).  
• Hon Hai is receiving local government support to recruit/return workers in order to ease its crisis there. Meanwhile, it will also quadruple its India-based iPhone manufacturing staff.
• UMC’s ADR premium is 0% and could see a bounce given the surge in TSMC.

• PayPal’s financial performance was impressive and the company managed to deliver an all-around beat.
• This will make it simple for PayPal’s merchant community to utilize their iPhone as a mobile point of sale without using a dongle or other payment terminals.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• For companies applying transitional measures, it was an opportunity to attract investor attention and consider what is listing. This should serve as an opportunity to promote metabolism of listed companies.
• Listing fees are set at the highest rates for prime market, so if the number of prime market companies decreases, TSE revenues will decrease. A conflict of interest has arisen.
• With such a conflict of interest at TSE, it is unlikely that the contradiction between the prime market concept and listing criteria that many market participants perceive can be resolved.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• On the IPO front,  Indian IPOs continue to trickle in, while other regions appear to be waking up from their slumber.
• There were a few GDR issuances this week, along with another placement in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) and a number of lock-up expiries. 

• Ansys delivered a positive quarterly result with a strong performance on most key metrics, including revenues, earnings per share, operating margins, and ACV.
• Semiconductor and high-tech, automotive and ground transportation, and aerospace and defense were again the largest contributors in this quarter.
• The startup program of the company is growing as the nascent companies are taking advantage of Ansys solutions.

• HubSpot delivered a good quarterly result with revenue growth beyond market expectations, especially in terms of constant currency.
• The company also delivered an earnings beat as it added more than 8000 net new customers this quarter.
• In spite of the more challenging macro environment, HubSpot maintained a healthy growth retention rate largely given its low pricing.

• Trimble showed a decent organic revenue growth in the last quarter but failed to meet Wall Street expectations on the revenue front.
• The company’s top-line was impacted by the changes in the foreign exchange rates and it barely managed to meet market expectations regarding earnings.
• Recurring and software revenue continued to grow at quite a strong rate which is reflected by the sequential acceleration of its organic ARR growth.

• Company fundamentals have been and will continue to be the single most critical driver for BABA’s share price, although strong US dollar and geopolitics may complicate the situation.
• Expect BABA’s bottomline to reverse an eight-quarter down trend in coming September quarter on the back of disciplined capex and cost cutting, despite a challenging macro environment still pressuring topline.
• Importantly, investors have yet fully appreciated the improving competitive landscape thanks to regulation and rivals’ maturing businesses. See 30% upside in 6-12 months. Ripe timing to buy. 

• The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int’l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
• As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
• As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.

• ASML pre-released their updated view on demand and capacity – ahead of Nov 11, 2022 Investor Day – BETTER THAN EXPECTED
• Inflation now past peak and semi/tech likely see sustained bid. Even better for those  names that are monopolies in the EUV space = ASML and Lasertec
• Remain bullish Lasertec despite the recent rally. Better earnings and order outlook, and multiples to drive share price

• Alibaba driven gains largely offset record losses from Q1 although this has been widely expected as were updates on the timing of ARM’s IPO from FY22 (Mar23) to calendar 2023
• With Q2 losses, Vision Fund is clearly in the red for the first time since Q4 19 driven by downside for both public and private investments
• Buybacks are over and what appears to be renewed macro enthusiasm is offset by a stronger yen and a low discount to NAV

• The reduction of policy shareholdings of companies (excluding financials) for March fiscal year end companies was 2.3 trillion yen, about 600 billion yen more than in the previous fiscal year.
• It was a special year in which changes in the TSE’s criteria regarding tradable shares included in the market’s listing criteria contributed to the reduction of policy shareholdings.
• Going forward, companies will need to discuss the nature of cross-shareholdings based on capital allocation even more than they do now.

• Qualcomm delivered a mixed set of results as its revenues were higher than the market expectations as a result of a solid chipset business performance and good execution of its diversification and expansion plan.
• The management is working towards transforming Qualcomm from a wireless communications provider for the mobile industry to a provider of linked processors for the intelligent edge.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• First came the Terra collapse. Then the bankruptcies of the centralized lenders.
• And now the (almost certain) insolvency of FTX, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. 
• FTX’s collapse has shaken the industry to its core, in part because it is a fundamentally different type of business than a crypto lender like Celsius.

• eBay had a solid third quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
• The company also completed the tech-led re-imagination in the quarter and met its short-term commitments.
• Additionally, eBay is attempting to improve the standard and volume of the supply of components and accessories.

• Tencent are due to report earnings next week on Nov 16th
• Implied vols are bid up into the event causing an inverted term structure
• We see an opportunity to buy long calendar spreads to play a reversion in vol surface

• Naver Corp (035420 KS) (market cap of 28.9 trillion won or $20.9 billion) is our 2023 high conviction play.
• In this report, we provide a deep-dive analysis of Naver Corp and why we believe this stock has an attractive upside of 30%+ by the end of 2023. 
• Having followed the company for many years, I often like to think of Naver as“The Genius Turtle.”

• Our NAV analysis suggests a target price of 146.5 TWD for Sino-American Silicon Products (SAS), representing a lack of upside from current price.
• Sino-American Silicon Products’ stake in Global wafers represents 109% of SAS’s current market cap. 
• Two major risk factors on SAS include concerns about a global semiconductor sector downturn combined with increasing hostile political conflict between China and Taiwan. 

• Apple Inc. supplier Foxconn Technology Group is trying all means including higher pay to lure runaway workers back to its Zhengzhou factory
• Starting Nov. 1, Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory offered an allowance of 400 yuan ($55) a day to any workers showing up for work this month, up from the regular attendance allowance of 100 yuan
• It’s not clear how many workers left the factory, but online photos showed hundreds of workers waiting to board buses to their hometowns.

• Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT) reported 3Q22 EPS of NT$2.80 yesterday, below consensus estimates of NT$2.95, partly due to gross margin falling QoQ.
• The company emphasized that 4Q22E could be impacted by Zhengzhou issues, but would be short-term in nature. It still aims to achieve a 10% gross margin by 2025.
• EV business continues to expand and shares are trading near lower-end of their recent trading range.

• Intel continues to face growing economic headwinds and delivered no growth in its revenues on a sequential basis.
• The service share of the company is tracking in line with its expectations, and against its product roadmap.
• The company launched its 13th Generation Intel Core processor family, which is led by the 13th Generation Intel Core i9-13900L.

• Paycom delivered a good quarterly result in a rather turbulent environment for tech stocks.
• Moreover, Paycom’s core offering, BETI is at the core of its automation approach since it helps businesses and employees succeed in payroll.
• Strong demo leads are generated by their efforts, and their target markets strongly respond to their new brand campaign.

• In a rather tumultuous market environment for technology stocks, Shopify did management to deliver an all-around beat in the recent quarter.
• The outsized pace of the offline growth on Shopify continued as it acquired 8 new merchants with more than 20 locations each.
• The management launched new tools along with Shopify Markets for merchants who are in search of expanding to new markets.

• The development of TSS has been a life’s work. We are pleased to acknowledge that our second TSS publication on Smartkarma produced an impressive and rapid result.
• On 7 November we determined that the new interim downtrend low below 59.51 had failed and would likely produce a minimum 6-8% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
• TSM US subsequently produced a 13.4% gain in the following 3 days. Job done! Chart and further details attached.

• AMD’s Q3 results were well below Wall Street expectations because of weaker PC demand and significant inventory reduction measures taken throughout the PC supply chain.
• As server OEMs continued to resolve match set concerns, OEM sales in the enterprise sector decreased sequentially.
• AMD’s Xilinx FPGA and networking data center products saw good sales thanks to strong demand from cloud and financial customers.

• In Nov 2021, PB Fintech raised around US$793m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.  The lock-up on its pre-IPO shareholder will expire soon.
• The company operates two platforms: Policybazaar operates in India’s online insurance product and service industry; and Paisabazaar platform operates in India’s online credit industry. 
• In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.

• Nexon is our top pick within the Japanese Gaming Sector 
• We see continued strong growth in revenue driven by existing game franchises in addition to new pipeline opportunities
• Nexon is cash rich, debt free and is returning more and more money back to shareholders

• Nexon (3659 JP) reported Q3 earnings and full-year forecasts today. Revenue came in at the bottom end of August guidance, despite the higher-than-forecast USD/yen rate. 
• The forecast for full-year is below consensus. This may be seen as disappointing. The stock may fall on this. 
• But a buyback announcement and relative valuation suggests time to cover the short. 

• TSMC is planning to build a second Arizona fab that could produce its highest-end 3nm chips, according to the WSJ.
• TSMC ADR Premium Impact: The TSMC ADR premium is near zero, and increased U.S. investor enthusiasm could lead to a significant bounce for the premium.
• INTC vs. TSMC Impact: News flow could favor TSMC over Intel over the next few days, at least until a November 14th conference Intel will be attending.

• We believe Tencent’s revenue will stop declining in 3Q22 and bounce back thereafter.
• We believe FinTech will grow fast, but online game will still be stagnant.
• We expect Tencent will have an upside of 67% for year end 2023.

• ARLO affirmed the slowdown in consumer purchasing that began in September and is expecting the market to remain soft through the middle of 2023
• While ARLO had reduced channel inventory in the second quarter, it had started to ship more product into the channel by the time there was a shift in the market
• Number of paid subscribers continues to rise in Q3 with ARLO adding 195 thousand. ARLO is expecting paid subscriber growth to continue as the channel sells units to the consumer

• XPER reported third quarter results after becoming a separate operating business at the beginning of October
• XPER is progressing in adding new customers for its different product lines with revenue expected to ramp in subsequent quarters
• The third quarter did not have much in the form of surprises with XPER maintaining its full year guidance.