TMT/Internet

• Bloomberg reported that PAG and other parties have expressed interest in taking ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) private. PAG also sounded out several lenders.
• ASMPT has three substantial shareholders (Asm International Nv (ASM NA), FIL Limited and Schroders PLC (SDR LN)) which suggests a requirement for a reasonable takeover premium.
• ASMPT previously denied a privatisation rumour in 2020. Nevertheless, peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$82-97 per share, 11-31% premium to the last close.  

• Some KOSPI indices rebalanced at the close on Thursday while the Hang Seng family of indices and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) rebalanced at the close on Friday.
• The S&P/ASX family, MVIS family and a bunch of other indices will rebalance at the close on coming Friday.
• After seeing big inflows over the last couple of years, outflows from Samsung KODEX Secondary Battery ETF (305720) and Mirae Asset TIGER Secondary Cell ETF (305540) have started to pick up.

• Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP) is a range trade. The juice is in the speed of the Corporate Buyback and how excited people get.
• With the renewal of the gaming concession in the bag and Melco Resorts (MLCO US) up 128% in the past six months, Melco (200 HK) has extracted ~HK$2.5bn from MLCO.
• Hosokawa Micron (6277 JP)‘s current PER of 9.9x ignores that net cash and securities holdings is about half of market cap. This is a cheap stock.  

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• IPO activity appears to be picking up across the region, with deal in Japan, Hong Kong, US and Indonesia being lined up.
• Placements as well picked up pace, despite the ongoing Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s mega deal set to suck liquidity out of the system for a while. 

• As per the failed offer terms, consideration would amount to €5,507 million, of which €3,581 million in cash, which would stretch the balance sheet of Euronext. 
• Euronext should issue equity to fund part of the cash component, but the EPS accretion in a base case scenario would be just 4.5% (see sensitivity analysis premia/ENX share price).
• If any exchange operators were truly interested in acquiring Allfunds, I find it surprising that they would not had acquired shares during some share placements in October 2022.

• In C4Q22, JD reported in-line total revenue and beat in profit. We trimmed down our forecast on C1Q23 total revenue by 4% due to slower-than-expected rebound in retail spending. 
• JD is shifting its strategy to be more focused on low price and user, and we suggest that the repositioning period could be painful for the company.
• We cut our revenue forecast by 5%. Our estimates on top and bottom lines in 2023 are (6%) and (28%) below cons. Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$27.

• Digital Turbine’s Q3 results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• In the quarter, revenue decreased by 25% from the prior year to $162.3 million which was unexpected.
• Regarding ad placement kinds, the company has kept a portfolio that is evenly distributed among banner, interstitial, and video ads.

• Fidelity National Information Services achieved its financial targets for the fourth quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
• In the fourth quarter, merchants increased by 2% on a constant currency basis.
• We give Fidelity National Information Services a ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price.

• SS&C delivered a decent result in the last quarter of 2022 despite a challenging operating environment for SS&C Technologies.
• Adjusted organic revenue was flat in line.
• In the quarter, SS&C Technologies acquired a specialized Colorado-based fund administrator, Complete Financial Ops, that focuses on private equity as well as family offices.

• Two new names have emerged as likely candidates for inclusion in Korea: SM Entertainment and Cosmo Advanced Materials, whose YTD returns are approximately 104% and 83%, respectively.
• For SM Entertainment, the float rate may be adjusted downward depending on the tender offer results. Still, even if modified to 50%, it will surpass the float market cap hurdle.
• Cosmo still has a significant gap in the full market cap. However, we should note that the recent insane rally in Korea’s EV battery sector shows no signs of ending.

• JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) raised around US$129m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• The structure of the November / March decline is typical of a counter-trend correction with multiple crossovers and a lack of impulsive price action.
• The past 3 weeks have seen declines quickly reversed as bullish ST momentum failures plague these attempted declines. A weekly close above 22299 will confirm a likely MT uptrend renewal.

• China-Based HCM technology unicorn Beisen Holdings (1667838D CH)  filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. Morgan Stanley and CICC are leading the upcoming offering. 
• Beisen Holdings (1667838D CH)  is the leading provider of integrated HR SaaS and talent management platform with ~12% market share of the overall cloud-based HCM industry in China. 
• We believe the company’s expected IPO valuation may reach $1B, making it one of the largest providers of cloud-native HCM solutions in China scheduled to go public this year. 

CentralNic is a UK software company, operating globally through its two businesses, Online Presence and Online Marketing. Through a series of acquisitions, Online Marketing has become the group’s primary driver, delivering high double-digit revenue and profit growth year-on-year since the group’s first foray in 2019. Now at critical mass, the business is positioned for sustained organic growth, allowing management to prioritise capital allocation and shareholder returns, while maintaining high margins and strong cash conversion.

• Following the massive drop in Adobe’s share price, more investors are looking favourably at the business.
• In my view, capital allocation decisions within the company raise some red flags that are hard to overlook.
• As a long-term shareholder, I still have a hard time rating Adobe as a buy.

• In the last few days, there have been local media accounts that mentioned that HYBE may be seeking as much as 1 trillion won (US$760 million) from investors.
• The more likely scenario is that HYBE encounters a greater backlash from the global investors in its attempts to raise nearly 1 trillion won.
• We maintain our existing stance of Kakao eventually winning this M&A battle for the controlling stake in SM Entertainment.

• Carsales.Com Ltd (CAR AU) aims to raise around US$330m (A$501m) via a renounceable entitlement offer. The deal is relatively large to digest at 28.2 days of three month ADV. 
• The use of proceeds will be to acquire 40% of Webmotors SA and strengthen its balance sheet. 
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Digital Turbine, Inc.’s misfortunes are about to pivot, providing ad spending reverts to its average growth trajectory.
• The company has a novel business model, and constant expansion by integrating growth ideas such as a Shopify-esque platform could yield substantial financial benefits, according to the company.
• Digital Turbine, Inc. (NASDAQ:APPS) stock has suffered from a trying time during the past year, conveyed by its more than 70% year-over-year drawdown.

• SE reported C4Q22 total revenue 10% and 14% higher than our est. and cons., thanks to the improvement in monetization rate of eCommerce segment. 
• We expect the weak trend to continue into 2023, with intensified competition from eCommerce competitors and weak performance of Free Fire.
• We raise our TP to US$62, which implies 2.5X PS/6X PE/4X PS for eCommerce/gaming/fintech in 2023. Maintain SELL rating due to challenging growth outlook. 

• Oracle’s strategy is being acknowledged by one of its major peers – Salesforce.
• Oracle does not appear among the top three cloud infrastructure players, but it doesn’t need to.
• Oracle is expected to deliver another strong quarter, investors should remain focused on the long-term positioning of the business.

• X2M Connect Limited (ASX:X2M) has reported a 23% reduction in RaaS-adjusted EBITDA losses (to $2.4m) for H1 FY23 on the back of operating leverage from 96% sales growth, 135% gross profit growth and just a 14% increase in operating costs.
• While sales growth was driven by hardware sales (connected devices +100% over the pcp), hardware margins have improved ~500bps and connected devices in the field ultimately drive SaaS/maintenance fees (platform fees).
• Cash at bank was $3.05m with an additional net $0.5m received in January 2023 from an R&D tax credit. 

• Zebra Technologies had a strong finish to the year, with profitability and sales near the high end of the outlook of the company and an all-around beat in the fourth quarter.
• Latin America sales increased with strong growth in Mexico and Brazil.
• However, due to an uncertain microenvironment, Zebra Technologies continue to see elongated sales cycles and softening of demand.

• Gaia reported 4Q22 revenues of $19.6 million versus $20.8 million in 4Q21, and 2022 revenues of $82.0 million versus $79.6 million in 2021.
• Given the small Yoga International acquisition in December 2021, this implies some revenue contraction in the core business for 2022.
• Despite the top-line challenge, net income was slightly positive for the year after adjusting for one-time legal fees and the anticipated SEC settlement accrual, which confirms the resilience of Gaia’s financial model.

• Guidewire Software is delivered a mixed set of results in the recent quarter with revenues above Wall Street expectations.
• Both ARR and subscription revenue and particularly subscription and support gross margin, finished ahead of the expectations of the management.
• In the quarter, Guidewire Software executed several new InsuranceSuite production deployments on the Guidewire Cloud Platform, including DEFINITY Insurance.

• ARLO initiated a new marketing strategy based on price and it seems consumers have responded well in an otherwise tough market backdrop.
• The sell through led to ARLO growing the number of paid subscribers more than we were expecting, and on pace to surpass 2 million paid subscribers in first quarter 2023
• The revenue achieved in the fourth quarter was approximately $3 million higher than the top end of the guidance range ARLO had previously provided

• Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
• In February, names which appeared in our “B” list such as Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) and AXXZIA Inc (4936 JP) announced they would be moving to the Prime Market.
• In this insight, we take a look at updated lists, the price performance history of those baskets, and other interesting trades in the TOPIX index space.

• On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
• At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn.
• In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal and what one can glean from looking at the previous dividend payout for JD.com.

• From the time of Tencent (700 HK) announcement of the in-specie dividend, Meituan (3690 HK) has underperformed Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) by around 35%.
• Surprisingly, short interest on Meituan (3690 HK) has dropped in the last few months as the stock has continued to drop.
• As with JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Prosus (PRX NA) could sell Meituan (3690 HK) in the months following settlement. Or they could remove the overhang by placing a block.

• JD launched “10bn subsidy” campaign on March 5th. Smartphone and electronics is the main product category and the prices for comparable products are relatively the same as PDD. 
• We estimate that total GMV generated from subsidized products may reach to about 1.5% in 2023, and the incremental cost will be about RMB5bn in 2023.
• We cut our forecast of JD’s non-GAAP net income to RMB21bn in 2023, which is 34% below cons. Maintain SELL with an updated TP of US$42, which implies 22x P/2023E.

• Advantest is a market leader in semiconductor testing and will be a major beneficiary of a multi-year AI tailwind
• Catalyst: News flow around new AI applications, increased investment dollars flowing into the space and visible acceleration in Nvidia’s data centre GPU growth
• Market concern over near-term correction in semiconductor market is giving investors an opportunity to buy Advantest at a 15% discount to its intrinsic value

• AISpeech is a high-tech start up specializing in computer speech recognition and AI chip design in China.
• The company is developing intelligent voice interaction technology designed to improve human-machine interaction. It is also developing human-computer dialogue operating system and artificial intelligence chip modules to improve speech recognition.
• AISpeech is in the process of listing in the Shanghai Star Market, aiming to raise about US$1.5 billion.

MGI – Media and Games Invest (MGI) is increasingly focused on its vertically integrated multichannel advertising platform, retaining a core of games that serve to generate first-party data and provide an efficient sandpit for developing new services. FY22 results were at the top end of guidance (as revised upwards at Q322), despite the headwind of lower market advertising rates. This scenario has continued in Q123, and we have taken a cautionary approach to our revised FY23 forecasts, which will be reviewed when management issues guidance for the year at the Q1 update. Medium-term guidance remains for a revenue CAGR of 25–30%. The shares are valued well below peers and the level indicated by a discounted cash flow (DCF).

• Alteryx delivered a strong Q4, exceeding Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues and earnings as well as its management outlook.
• It also adjusted its go-to-market strategy to concentrate on the biggest global companies with the best growth potential.
• Alteryx Analytics Cloud platform has spurred corporate support for Alteryx’s long-term goals.

• NCR Corporation ended 2022 with a mixed result, surpassing the revenue expectations of Wall Street on account of a healthy business environment and robust demand.
• NCR achieved overall revenue growth of 13%.
• Besides that, they continue to see significant demand in the hotel sector from both their business and SMB clients.

• PTC produced a mixed set of results for the first quarter of fiscal 2023.
• The 14% organic ARR growth was followed by the additional point of inorganic growth from Codebeamer.
• They achieved this so rapidly by utilizing Windchill+’s out-of-the-box functionality, which PTC provided to the user as a secure preconfigured service.

• Chinese carpooling platform Dida (DIDA HK) has refiled for an IPO on the HKEx for the second time (in 2020 and 2021) and could raise around US$200m through the IPO.
• Dida’s last two attempts were not successful and some news media outlets reported that Dida has got assurance from regulators to go ahead with the IPO.
• In this insight, we take a look at the new data points from the company’s latest IPO filings.

• Hon Hai reports YoY increase in January + February sales, maintains outlook.
• Hewlett Packard results: CEO says does not expect significant PC recovery in FY2023E. Fitipower results show display ICs potentially bottoming earlier than most segments.
• Memory Monitor: Two latest signals indicate lower margins and extended high inventories; biased Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Tech.

• Two JD.com departments began to try fresh food front-line warehouse again.
• Radio and Television Administration plans to clean the content in short video.
• Herman Yu, Baidu’s chief strategy officer and formerly CFO, just resigned.

• BILI’s 4Q22 top line was basically in line, while non-GAAP net loss beat cons. by 8.28%. We largely dial down 2023 revenue forecast. 
• Moreover, we also suggest that recent meeting by the National Radio and Television Administration (NRTA) to curb short video addiction for minor protection would heavily impact BILI.
• Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$ 15.4, which implies 1.85X PS in 2023.

• Mobvoi uses AI technology to improve the next generation human-machine interaction. The company’s key partners include Google and Volkswagen.
• Mobvoi provides full-stack AI solutions for various hardware-software integration, voice interaction technology and engineering capabilities. The key sectors served include IoT, finance, telecommunications, F&B, and auto. 
• Since the founding of the company in 2012, the company has raised US$253 million in funding. Major investors in the company include Sequoia Capital, ZhenFund, SIG, and Google. 

• IBM US peaked at 153.21 in December 2022 and has declined more than 15% in the subsequent 12 weeks.
• Last week’s low of 127.71 was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and this new 4 month low was quick to fail and reverse.
• Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-7% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.

• SolarEdge Technologies reported a strong quarter with revenues of $890 million in revenues and an all-around beat.
• The U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, the U.K., and France all had noteworthy growth year over year.
• We initiate coverage on SolarEdge Technologies with a ‘Hold’ rating.

• Through my work and writing, I’ve been thinking more and more about an area that I’m not an expert in: gaming.
• And when we combine the word ‘Gaming’ with ‘Web3’ — there is a buzz and sense of excitement from most.
• Specifically, it’s all the rage when people talk about NFTs and the future of gaming.

1Spatial’s trading update confirms that trading has remained robust, with FY23 revenues and EBITDA expected to be no less than £29.8m (+10.3% y o-y) and £4.9m (+17% y-o-y) despite some inflationary pressure. The revenue mix continues to improve, with recurring revenues now c 50% (+c 22% y-o-y) of the total and term licences up c 80% to £5.2m. With momentum continuing into Q1, and a healthy order book and pipeline, the company looks well set to deliver further progress this year. Trials of the company’s SaaS applications are progressing well and strong uptake could drive an acceleration in scalable recurring revenue growth.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads  21Vianet Group (VNET US),Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Origin Energy (ORG AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK),  Jiangnan (1366 HK)
• Lowest spreads – Ihara Science (5999 JP), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Techno Associe (8249 JP), Nissin Electric (6641 JP).

• Signal #1 — Micron’s CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.
• Signal #2 — South Korea semiconductor inventories jump 28% MoM, 39.5% YoY.
• Implications for memory chip manufacturers: Biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.

• Upward trend in new orders suggest that guidance is conservative.
• Long-Term prospects good with digitalization, 5G and optical-electronic technology for 6G.
• Lagging share price offers attractive valuations and 42% potential upside to previous high.

• Founded in 2012, Beijing Yunzhisheng Information Technology Co. (also known as Unisound) is a Chinese company focused on AI powered voice and speech processing technologies.
• Unisound provides voice recognition, language processing and big data solutions to home appliances, automobile, healthcare and education companies.
• Since the inception of the company, it has raised US$361 million in funding. 

• Broadcom remains as one of the best-positioned semiconductors stocks, but lower topline growth is to be expected going forward.
• Broadcom has so far done a great job at expanding its product and service offerings through M&A deals.
• Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) has just reported yet another strong fiscal Q1 2023 quarter, marked by high top and bottom line growth.

• There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
• There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
• The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.

• Okta delivered a strong fourth-quarter performance which was highlighted by an all-around beat as well as a significant improvement in profitability and cash flow.
• The end of the 2023 fiscal was strong, with sustained improvement in its go-to-market business performance.
• In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

• Snowflake had a good quarter, with product revenue increasing by 54% in the fourth quarter and by 70% for the entire fiscal year, reaching $1.9 billion.
• This was significantly less noticeable at the top end of their customer base and more noticeable among foreign, SMB, and commercial clients.
• In addition, they intend to acquire LeapYear Technologies to improve their data clean room capabilities and cloud-based data warehousing business.

• Splunk completed the year on a positive note and delivered an all-around beat while exceeding its forecasted targets for revenue, total ARR, cloud ARR, operating margin, and free cash flow.
• In Q4, they increased overall ARR by 18% year on year to $3.674 billion.
• In Q4, Splunk secured major deals against a large enterprise competitor by demonstrating that adequate security, cloud migration, and pricing are insufficient.

• The index changes for the ASX Index family for the March 2023 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday 3rd March 2023.
• There will be one, two, and four changes for ASX 20, ASX 100, and ASX 200 indices, respectively. There will also be 12 ADDs and 9 DELs for ASX 300.
• In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows, short interest, and recent price performance of the names involved in the rebalance event.

• Bilibili reported 4Q2022 results. Net revenue increased 6.2% YoY to RMB6,142m (vs consensus RMB6,154m) while operating losses expanded to RMB2,327M (vs consensus RMB1,905.9m).
• Mobile Games revenues declined 11.5% YoY in 4Q2022 due to the restructuring of the games biz to focus on self-developed gaming titles.
• We expect Bilibili’s earnings to remain under pressure with aggressive cost controls to impact growth and Mobile games to slow-down in 2023E with lack of new titles for launch.

• NetEase delivered a mediocre set of results for the last quarter as it failed to meet market expectations with respect to net revenues.
• The company’s legacy titles, including the Westward Journey Online series and Fantasy Westward Journey Online did perform well and helped deliver an earnings beat.
• The company’s new game, the Egg Party, hit the Chinese market by storm this quarter.

• Salesforce had another strong quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
• Besides, the Data cloud became their most crucial cloud, enhancing each Salesforce cloud and enhancing the automation, intelligence, and real-time of every aspect of their Customer 360.
• With native integration of Tableau and Data Cloud, they recently released Tableau plus Data Cloud.

• Despite pandemic, geopolitical, policy, and macroeconomic headwinds, Autodesk gave a strong financial performance in the quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
• The product subscription renewal rate and its net revenue retention rate remain strong.
• The company continues to make excellent progress in its strategic initiatives, which drives accelerating the adoption of the Autodesk Construction Cloud.

• Workday produced strong Q4 results and delivered an all-around beat with a decent performance in key operating measures and a 22% increase in subscription revenue for the quarter and the entire fiscal year.
• While Talent Optimization is Workday’s fastest-growing SKU with an attach rate on new transactions of more than 85% in fiscal year 2023, approximately 50% of all active Workday HCM customers currently use Workday Skills Cloud.
• The company intends to boost margin expansion in fiscal 2024 while returning to a 20% plus subscription revenue growth when the environment recovers.

• ChatGPT has focused the investment community on the potential of AI to drive business performance and investment returns.
• Forbes picked Adobe as its top AI pick in 2023. We pick Appier, which is a faster-growing alternative in the digital marketing space.
• Appier’s revenue grew by over 50% last year and unlike many SaaS companies, it is profitable.

• JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market. 
• In this note, we discuss our earnings estimates, and thoughts on valuation.

• Mathpresso (Qanda app) uses AI technology to provide homework assistance for math problems. 
• As of February 2023, the Qanda app solved 4.7 billion math problems. The Qanda app is available in numerous languages including Korean, English, Spanish, Japanese, Vietnamese, Indonesian and Thai.
• The company has received $122 million in funding since the inception of the company. Major investors in Mathpresso include Google, Softbank, Smilegate Investment, Legend Holdings, and GGV Capital. 

• As expected, Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)‘s board has unanimously backed Potentia’s three-tiered revised Offer.
• On the 23rd of February, Potentia bumped with a $2.17/share unconditional Offer, increasing to $2.20 if they get to 75% interest, and $2.25 if ≥25% tendering opt for scrip.
• Where does this leave Alludo? Nitro reckons Alludo can’t raise their offer because of ASIC’s Truth In Takeovers policy. But Alludo do pocket the A$5mn break fee for their troubles. 

• Baidu managed to deliver an all-around in the last quarter beat despite the fact that its financial performance was impacted by a challenging environment because of a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases as well as its impact on the broader economy.
• Both feeds distributed through the Baidu app and mobile search queries continued experiencing double-digit growth in the quarter.
• Baidu is expected to launch Ernie Bot, its new conversational AI bot, powered by its latest in-house large language models, to counter ChatGPT.

• Alibaba managed to deliver an all-around beat despite experiencing significant challenges because of the rapid change in the Covid situation.
• The company delivered double-digit growth in its free cash flow and adjusted EBITA through operating efficiency and cost optimization.
• The strong net cash position of Alibaba is supported by its healthy cash flow generation.

• BILI’s 4Q results missed expectations across key metrics from revenue and MAU growth to guidance for 2023
• The results suggest fast growth will not return in 2023 and an uncertain road to breakeven by 2024.
• Reiterate our bearish view on the stock and see further downside risks ahead.

• 4QFY22 results in-line with guidance and expectations; guidance for FY23 lower
• Growth outlook while weakening, is surprisingly stronger-than-expected
• Share price unlikely to move up materially due to overhang from Figma acquisition; but valuations seem fair given growth is holding up; fair value (FV) rises to USD365

• The fourth quarter looks like a weak quarter according to the growth and the loss.
• However, deducting the termination cost for game studios, we believe the financials will be promising in 2023.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 19% for the yearend 2023.

• Weibo’s 4Q22 top line was in line with our est., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 34%/46%, due to reverse of a contingent payment agreement with Jiamian Tech. 
• While we raise its revenue forecast in 2023, we also expect its costs and expenses to rebound due to the recovery of offline promotion events.
• Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 13X PE in 2023.